Inflation data was released, higher than the previous value and expectations.
It should be noted that when I looked at the expectations of CPI data last night, it was still around 3.0. Today, the data expectations have been adjusted to 3.4, and then the value of 3.5 was announced.
It is significantly higher than the previous value and slightly higher than expectations, which is bearish for risk markets.
Before updating the content, let me first talk about my general ideas.
The CPI data is bearish, proving that the US inflation work is still under pressure, so the interest rate cut has been postponed again.
However, CPI data is only one of the inflation data. The Federal Reserve pays more attention to PCE data, and PCE is more objective and real.
Personally, I feel that the interest rate cut is really coming. First, use data to cool down the market, let the market expect that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates for the time being, and then use CPI data to guide market expectations and public opinion. When PCE is released, it is likely to remain the same as the previous value, which also proves that the Federal Reserve's work to reduce inflation is effective.
According to this idea, the Fed's recent series of actions are really to prepare for a rate cut. This is reverse thinking, and there is no actual evidence to prove it. However, according to this idea, the market and the outside world are misled in advance, and then when the market's expectations for rate cuts are reduced to the freezing point, the rate cuts are directly started.
For the risk market, the optimistic expectations of rate cuts have failed, and the market will adapt to the state of no rate cuts as soon as possible. After all, it has been a long time to maintain high interest rates. At the same time, the negative impact will be realized, and market sentiment will rebound.
For the crypto market, if the third support we mentioned yesterday is not broken, there is no need to worry too much. After the U.S. stock market opens tonight, the market may fall along with the U.S. stock market.
At present, the 66,500 support mentioned yesterday will bear greater pressure tonight, so pay attention to the support level.