Macroeconomics and news:
Because Powell "painted a pie" for the world in the early morning, the current risk market's expectations have gradually become optimistic.
At present, the US stock market opened high and rose, driven by technology stocks. Although the US non-agricultural data will be released tomorrow, the risk market is trying to find a reasonable reason or expectation to prove that tomorrow's data will not block the expectation of interest rate cuts, and also prove that the labor market is slowly cooling down.
Please note that the soft data is gradually cooling down, not directly declining. The current data given is that the previous value of the non-agricultural data is 27.5 and the expected value is 20. If it meets expectations or even falls short of expectations, it proves that the labor market has declined significantly. In this case, it may force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible.
However, I personally feel that cutting interest rates as soon as possible may not be the result that the Federal Reserve currently wants, so under the Federal Reserve's data "play", it is expected that tomorrow's data may be between 25-26, which is much higher than the expected value and slightly lower than the previous value. Under such data, it will support the expectation of a rate cut in crude oil, that is, June or July. At the same time, the slow cooling of the labor market also proves that economic growth is slowing down, which is conducive to a soft landing.
Of course, there is another possibility. The data is greater than the previous value, the labor market is overheated, inflationary pressure increases, the expectation of interest rate cuts is greatly reduced, and the rate cut rate is greatly reduced. I personally expect that the possibility of such data is small.
In the first article today, I mentioned a point of view that the current high-level strong US dollar index and the same is true for US stocks, which may be the result the Fed wants. Through data and market sentiment adjustment, the two-way ability to attract money is maintained.
At the same time, we also need to pay attention to the situation in the gold market. At present, gold has broken through the historical high and ushered in a bull market, but the struggle for pricing power behind it is also brewing. For American funds that are accustomed to control, they may not give up the pricing power of the gold market so quickly. After that, it may be necessary to make certain corresponding actions on gold. For details, you can refer to the first article released today.
Secondly, the pricing power of the gold market is actually also reflecting the pricing power of the encryption market or Bitcoin in the future. At present, Bitcoin chips are constantly being absorbed by the market and institutions. At present, the competition for pricing power has not begun, but in fact, it has been hidden. In the financial market, whoever controls the pricing power has the ability and right to use the market to harvest funds in a targeted manner.
At present, due to the recent risk of the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, a large amount of U.S. bond selling funds have flowed into the gold market. Although Powell tried to use his speech to redeem himself, potential risks in the gold market still exist.
In terms of crypto market news, the most recent foreign media reports on crypto are executives or institutions of traditional companies, who have transitioned into the crypto market. After the passage of the Bitcoin ETF, although the market has been cold for a short period of time, traditional institutions have recognized the crypto market. is constantly increasing.
What needs attention here is Neoclassic Capital, which was founded by two Goldman Sachs executives in 23 years. Its investment scope covers derivatives, tokens, games, and entertainment. The company is mainly responsible for investing in blockchain projects. DYDX also has the shadow of investment by the company. At the same time, these two people were born in Goldman Sachs. I think Goldman Sachs’ status in the traditional investment field is self-evident, and the actions and resources they brought to the crypto market deserve more of our attention.
