The BTC rate has grown above $63,000 and today it hints that yesterday you should have listened to your own indicator 😁. It deserved it, so let's start the analysis with its picture.
Let us recall that yesterday, even before the meeting and the Fed's decision, expecting a reversal into the ABC correction, we wrote that at the same time P73 Trend & Target Dynamics on the four-hour TF#BTCwas for growth, and sets targets of $61,814 and $62,647.
Result - the price went to $59,174, did not touch the basic stop-loss from the indicator at $59,075, took both targets, but also went higher. The set high for now is $63,412.
Two basic targets have worked themselves out, but the price remains in a stable uptrend. Moreover, yesterday's growth switched to the uptrend of the daily TF indicator. With targets of $62,816 (already worked out today), $65,400 and $67,815.
BUT here you should be careful - the previous two signals were first on the uptrend, then on the downtrend - completely off, without even reaching the first basic target. For those who read the instructions - this happens in the range, for this case there are basic stop-losses and signals of a potential trend reversal.
What do we see on the chart without an indicator?
Obviously another ascending structure. It has to be redrawn for the third time. The high of the 3rd wave was on September 17, yesterday on the test of the volume level of $59,335 the low of the 4th wave was set. And now - the 5th wave. A very important event on which is the breakout of the global ascending trend from October 16, 2023 (indicated by the dotted line).
We considered the unsuccessful attempt to break through it on September 17 as a very important short signal. Now there is a breakthrough and while the price is above this trend and the EMA 50 of the daily TF - further growth is a priority.
The August 25 high, $65,000, will most likely be rewritten, the liquidity behind it will be removed. But the growth in the fifth wave cannot be endless. And the question that will be key with such growth is whether#BTCwill hold on to the correction of the EMA 50 and 200 daily TF (currently the first is at $59,826, the second is at the volume level of $59,335). If yes, the growth will continue.
For such a positive scenario, the alternative scenario of a wave of a higher order is very confusing, in which all the current movement from the high of August 25 could be a correction of the growth from August 5. And in which from August 25 to September 6 there was a decline in wave A. Then from September 6 to today there is a rebound in wave B. And then the market is waiting for a decline in wave C. Which should update the low of wave A - $ 52,550.
A very unpleasant scenario. But, you must admit, that it could be more in the style of the range, which has been going on for more than 190 (!) days. Fortunately, for invalidation it is not necessary much - to rewrite the high on August 25, $65,000.
Right now we simply don't have a priority expectation, there have been too many erroneous forecasts in recent days and this is throwing us off track. Therefore, we give way to the algorithm and listen to the P73 Trend & Target Dynamics with its targets of $65,400 and $67,815. It only seems like a lot. Half a year of range has weaned everyone off really strong volatility. In fact, such growth is not even a test of the downward trend with ATH on March 14. A breakout of which would mean a probable exit to the global heel wave of the cycle and a move to a new ATH.
S&P 500 has recently updated ATH and this is an exit to the fifth wave. BTC will be next in the medium term. The question is through which "route". The only worry is that the background for the current growth of the markets is the reduction of the interest rate by 0.5 percentage points in the US. Growth and positivity in the market are perceived as a "feast during the plague". It's just that the crowd is not yet fully aware of the plague.
