Today is Mid-Autumn Festival. I wish you all a happy Mid-Autumn Festival.
The market is still fluctuating and there is no clear direction. As the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is approaching on the 19th, I personally think that there will be a rate cut, but not the 0.5% rumored by the market, but 0.25% in line with expectations. I think what the Federal Reserve wants at present is a smooth landing. After all, it does not want to fall into an economic crisis so early, as can be seen from the recent pull-up of U.S. stocks and revision of economic data.
As for the economic recession in the short term, it is even less likely. The recession speculation in August and September has failed. If there is another recession, it will depend on the two interest rate cuts in November and December.
Therefore, the future market trend is that BTC will fall back to 56,000-54,000 in late September after the expected positive impact of interest rate cuts is realized, completing a bottoming action similar to the three tests, and then be bullish in October.
As mentioned before, there is basically nothing to be bearish about the market in October. The expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve on the 19th was realized, and there will be no economic data after the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision on the 20th. It is a news window period, so the BTC price has a chance to rebound and break through 60,000 in October. There is a great chance to reach 65,000-68,000.
Although there will most likely be a huge crash after the October market ends, that is something we will talk about later. Now let’s prepare our bullets to welcome this golden October market!
Is the market already in the second half of the bull market?
This cycle is likely to be a double top or triple top prediction:
If there is no recession before the US election, then this may be a double top structure. The second top may be when the monetary easing begins, which may be in 2025 or 2026, which is the second top of this cycle.
The three-peak situation is that if the US economy declines before the US election, then the first peak is likely to be the approval of spot ETFs, the second peak is the US election, and the third peak is the release of liquidity. These three top cycles or double-top cycles correspond to the high and low points that I expect the industry to reach.
The first position is ETF and the US election. My views are all about cycles. The US election is probably the best stage for stimulating the entire risk market since 2024. This cycle is the first two months and the last two months.
Looking further down, we need to look at the problem of the US economy. If the US economy still does not show any recession during this period, the Federal Reserve will be willing to continue to cut interest rates, the US economy will maintain a balance, and the unemployment rate will still remain at a low level. This will be a good thing for the entire risk market.
If the next batch of funds is really released, and the release cycle is consistent with 2026, then the next rising cycle may be in the middle and late part of the year 2026, which may be a better opportunity.
This week is super central bank week. In addition to the Federal Reserve, another central bank that has attracted much attention is the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Friday.
The financial market turmoil triggered by the last rate hike is still fresh in our minds. The expectation is that interest rates will remain unchanged this month, and there will be no further rate hikes until the end of the year.
If Japan suddenly goes crazy and raises interest rates again, coupled with the Federal Reserve's unexpected rate cut, it would be hard to imagine.
The recent dissatisfaction caused by the listing of BN is the fuse for the concentrated outbreak of everyone’s dissatisfaction with the entire crypto industry.
Dissatisfaction does not only come from so-called fairness and chaos, but more from confusion and helplessness. This is also 19 years ago, offline cx disk + eos chain casino. During the 312 event, many people thought that the industry was over.
Now it is even more confusing, BTC is at a high market value, and cryptocurrencies cannot see tomorrow. I once expected BTC to at least explode and bring its own junk coins, but now even this extravagant hope is a bit unrealistic.
No one knows where the road lies. Perhaps a big black swan is needed for a thorough cleansing; perhaps a revolutionary DeFi revolution brought about by incremental innovation is needed.
Anyway, it’s not like this now. If we enter a super bull market like this, even we ourselves will find it absurd and nonsensical. This is the current situation in the industry.
