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Macro News

1. According to the China Meteorological Observatory, the center of this year's 13th typhoon "Bebejia" (strong typhoon level) has landed in Shanghai Pudong Lingang New City around 7:30 today (16th). The maximum wind force near the center was 14 (42 meters/second) when it landed, and the lowest central pressure was 955 hPa. "Bebejia" also surpassed 4906 typhoon "Gloria" and became the strongest typhoon to land in Shanghai since 1949.

2. The Ukrainian Air Force issued an alert in the early morning of September 16, saying that there was a risk of missile attacks in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and other places in Ukraine, and there was also a risk of drone attacks in many places. Kyiv City and the Kyiv State Military and Political Administration both announced the sounding of air defense alarms in the early morning of the same day. The Kyiv State Military and Political Administration said that the air defense system was repelling enemy drones. At present, the Russian side has not responded to this.

3. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of September 16, 2024, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 3813.92 points, down 16.5% from the previous period.

Global futures market changes

1. International precious metal futures closed with mixed gains and losses, with COMEX gold futures down 0.03% at $2,610/ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.02% at $31.08/ounce.

2. International oil prices rose across the board, with the October contract of U.S. crude up 2.69% to $70.50 per barrel, and the November contract of Brent crude up 1.82% to $72.34 per barrel.

3. Most of the base metals in London closed higher, with LME copper futures up 0.69% to $9,372.5/ton, LME zinc futures up 1.39% to $2,945/ton, LME nickel futures up 2.39% to $16,325/ton, LME aluminum futures up 1.78% to $2,515/ton, LME tin futures up 0.3% to $31,900/ton and LME lead futures down 0.49% to $2,033.5/ton.

4. The main agricultural futures contracts of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower across the board, with soybean futures down 0.17% to 1004.5 cents per bushel; corn futures down 0.73% to 410.25 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down 2.77% to 578.25 cents per bushel.

Black hot news

1. According to Mysteel, from September 9 to September 15, 2024, the total iron ore shipments from Australia to Brazil were 29.025 million tons, an increase of 3.19 million tons from the previous month. Australia's shipments were 20.636 million tons, an increase of 2.511 million tons from the previous month, of which Australia's shipments to China were 18.156 million tons, an increase of 2.197 million tons from the previous month. Brazil's shipments were 8.389 million tons, an increase of 680,000 tons from the previous month. The total global iron ore shipments for this period were 32.367 million tons, an increase of 764,000 tons from the previous month.

2. According to Mysteel, from September 9 to September 15, the total amount of iron ore arriving at 47 ports in China was 21.955 million tons, a decrease of 1.911 million tons from the previous month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at 45 ports in China was 21.554 million tons, a decrease of 620,000 tons from the previous month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at six northern ports was 11.308 million tons, a decrease of 1.594 million tons from the previous month.

Hot news on agricultural products

​1. This year, Cangzhou wheat has a bumper harvest, and the quality of wheat is at a relatively high level in recent years. Cangzhou Grain Industry Group prepared warehouse capacity in advance, rented out 55,000 tons of warehouse capacity, set up 5 purchasing warehouses, and carried out purchasing work. So far, a total of 100,000 tons of new wheat has been purchased.

2. According to foreign media reports, as of September 16, Ukraine's grain exports in the 2024/25 fiscal year (July-June) reached 8.7 million tons, compared with 5.9 million tons in the same period of the previous year (as of September 20). These exports include 4.8 million tons of wheat, 2.5 million tons of corn and 1.2 million tons of barley. The Ukrainian government and the Ministry of Agriculture have agreed to limit wheat exports to 16.2 million tons in 2024/25. There are no restrictions on the export of other commodities.

3. The weekly crop growth report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) early Tuesday morning showed that as of the week of September 15, the quality rate of U.S. soybeans was 64%, in line with market expectations, 65% in the previous week, and 52% in the same period last year. The U.S. soybean harvest rate was 6%, the market expected 4%, 4% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 3%. The U.S. soybean leaf fall rate was 44%, 25% in the previous week, 47% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 37%.

4. According to the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), U.S. soybean oil stocks in August 2024 were 1.138 billion pounds, the market expected 1.356 billion pounds, the July data was 1.499 billion pounds, and the August 2023 data was 1.25 billion pounds; the soybean crushing volume in August 2024 was 158.008 million bushels, the market expected 171.325 million bushels, the July data was 182.881 million bushels, and the August 2023 data was 161.453 million bushels.

5. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), as of the week of September 12, 2024, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 401,287 tons, and the U.S. shipped 5,167 tons of soybeans to China (mainland). The U.S. shipped 58,267 tons of soybeans to mainland China in the previous week. The U.S. soybean export inspection volume to China accounted for 1.29% of the total export inspection volume that week, and 16.45% last week; the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 521,118 tons, and the U.S. corn export inspection volume to China (mainland) was 2,473 tons. The U.S. corn export inspection volume to mainland China in the previous week was 1,519 tons. The U.S. corn export inspection volume to China accounted for 0.47% of the total export inspection volume that week, and 0.18% last week.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. Gazprom said it would continue to supply natural gas to Europe through Ukraine, with 42 million cubic meters delivered on Monday.

Metal Hot News

1. ANZ Bank raised its short-term gold price forecast to $2,700 an ounce and its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 to $2,900 an ounce, according to ANZ. The bank's commodity strategist Soni Kumari said that as U.S. inflation returns to the Fed's 2% target, the Fed should launch a rate cut cycle this month, supporting gold prices. However, Kumari said that the strength of gold price increases will depend on the pace of the Fed's rate cuts in the short term. She added that in the upcoming easing cycle, lower real interest rates and a weaker dollar are likely to strengthen their inverse relationship with gold, while central banks' gold purchases remain strong.

Bragging about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. Rubber is destocking as a whole, will the price continue to rise in the future?

Shenyin Wanguo Futures analysis shows that as the impact of the typhoon weakens, new rubber production is expected to continue to be released, and the price of raw materials will still be under pressure in the later period. Considering that the probability of La Niña this year still exists, it is not ruled out that there will still be periodic rainfall in the later period to disturb the rhythm of rubber tapping, thereby supporting raw material prices. Domestic bonded area inventories continue to be slowly liquidated, which also provides certain support to prices. The golden September and silver October peak season is expected to approach, and after the impact of the short-term typhoon passage fades, the overall trend is expected to maintain an upward center of gravity.

2. Methanol production is at a high level, will prices continue to be under pressure?

Minmetals Futures analysis pointed out that from a fundamental perspective, domestic production continues to pick up, corporate profits are still good, and production is expected to remain at a high level. The import arrivals have fallen, but the port supply is relatively sufficient. On the demand side, the port MTO production has returned to a high level, the port olefins unit has basically returned, the overall traditional demand has rebounded, and demand has risen. The overall situation is that both supply and demand have increased, but the high port inventory and low MTO profits will still limit the upward space of methanol. Overall, the commodity market is generally pessimistic. Methanol has weakened significantly under the high port inventory during the same period. In the short term, it is greatly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see.

Today's important futures data and events at a glance

1. At 0:00 on September 17, the United States August NOPA soybean crushing and member soybean oil stocks. Previously, the US soybean oil stocks in July 2024 were 1.499 billion pounds, lower than market expectations; the soybean crushing volume was 182.881 million bushels, higher than market expectations.

2. September 17, 20:30, U.S. August retail sales monthly rate.

3. September 17th to be determined, China's soybean oil port inventory as of September 17th. Previously, according to Wind data, as of the week of September 10th, soybean oil port inventory recorded 1.035 million tons.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data