There was a sudden bad news in the morning, and Trump was almost attacked on the golf course, causing BTC to fall by 2,000 points. BTC fell from 6.04w to 5.81w this morning. This position is still a lot of money.
In the past two days, there are many things happening in token2049, the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the interest rate meeting. There are many variables. Short-term players should not be too optimistic. The first pressure from above is 5.93w.
Many altcoins are close to bottoming out, but only a few will explode in the first wave. Who will they be? This is the most pressing question to think about in the near future.
Last time, ordi was hit and the bottom was pulled up 10 times, which started at 10 times the bottom of pepe, and it pulled up before ai and meme.
This time, if we adopt a similar thinking framework, we still need to think according to these criteria:
Old technology, new gameplay;
New concepts, new hopes;
Generate new assets in batches.
Which one do you think it will be?
This asset must be listed on at least one of OK and BN, so that it can have a better safety cushion. The market value cannot exceed 500 million US dollars, otherwise it will be difficult to pull the price. The best bottom is between tens of millions of US dollars and hundreds of millions of US dollars. The narrative must be on a new track, otherwise it will be difficult to draw consensus and imagination. The technical side must have a good accumulation structure, experience large-scale panic selling, and generate demand at the bottom.
After screening through the above criteria, most of the noise can be filtered out. The altcoin is close to bottoming out. It depends on how BTC will perform one month after the rate cut. It is best to form a good bottom oscillation pattern, rather than constantly reversing to lows. The opportunity is approaching.
Can the counterfeit market pick up in October and November?
What can be significantly noticed is that although the unlocked value of altcoins is currently steadily declining, between the end of October and the beginning of November, more than $1.3 billion in altcoins will be unlocked.
Points to note are:
1/ The $1.3 billion token unlocking is mainly [Modularity] tokens, and a total of $900 million of [Modularity] tokens will be unlocked during this period.
The token unlocking will mainly release to:
1. Core Contribution Team
2. Seed round investors
3. Series A investors.
Since the token release target is mainly the team and investors rather than the community and ecosystem rewards, the selling pressure is relatively small.
Moreover, as the proportion of holdings by teams and investment institutions increases, the hype about [modular tokens] may intensify, and more marketing and KOLs will turn to modular narratives.
2/ L1 leads the unlocking of 200-300 million USD per week
Although the modular sector unlocked a large amount in the first week of November, [Layer1] is still the main force of token dilution, diluting the market at a rate of 200-300 million US dollars per week.
Among them, SOL produces 10 million US dollars of tokens every day, and AVAX produces 2.5 million US dollars of tokens every day.
In addition, the monthly token release of SUI and APT of approximately US$70 million also significantly dilutes the value of token holders.
What do you think of the current situation? Can BTC return to its high point in one fell swoop?
Is Ethereum beyond salvation?
From the cost perspective, after three months of wash-out and correction, the cost of Dog Village BTC has exceeded 50,000.
Judging from the layout of Gouzhuang, if Gouzhuang wants to make money, it can only make money by maintaining the bull market, cooperating with the Fed's continuous interest rate cuts, and then continuing to attract funds into the market. By raising BTC to more than $80,000 or even higher, it can make money Big money.
Therefore, we just need to follow the logic of the dog dealer. The dog dealer in the last bull market was Grayscale Fund, and the dog dealer in this bull market is the world-class asset management institution BlackRock. The number of Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC is approaching a record high. This bull market is a bit difficult, and the number of cottages has shrunk severely in the middle, but don't cut yourself and make the contract liquidation.
ETH
During this period, Vitalik Buterin was calling for ETH to rise again while selling ETH to pick up girls.
Although the Ethereum Foundation's sale of ETH has become the reason why ETH cannot take off, we can see from the Ethereum Foundation's expenditure report in the first half of the year that more than 50% of the money was invested in the two projects of Ethereum education and Ethereum underlying construction.
Ethereum does this because of one of the principles behind it: as the mother of all chains, Ethereum can only produce better fruits if its soil is more fertile.
V God was just joking about picking up girls. In fact, Ethereum did not use the money to pick up young models on the yacht. Instead, it stayed true to its original intention and built Ethereum.
The Ethereum Foundation also knows its problems and is trying to find answers. It later launched the Next Bilion plan for the application layer.
In this round of bull market, ETH’s performance is not as impressive as BTC. Those who have heavy positions in ETH can switch part of their positions to BTC. It will still take some time for ETH to break through.
