The market suddenly changed last night. Next, we will focus on whether the market can stabilize around 6w. Personally, I think the market is about to enter a sideways trend and will change again next week.
Compared with Ethereum and Sol, the market's growth rate will be better, which also shows that the market is still the only target of the main force in the near future, and the rest can only wait for the main funds to go to other sectors.
At the 4-hour level, Bitcoin has broken through and stood above 58,000, which means that the short-term adjustment is about to end and will continue to adjust upward.
The real resistance above is around 62,800. When this position is broken and stabilized, it will truly start a major counterattack at the daily level and lead the crypto market to rise again. At that time, a large-cycle rebound will occur.
Why do we say that there will be a good bottoming out after the first interest rate cut?
Before and after the first interest rate cut in 2019 (just like now, a preventive interest rate cut), we can see that the U.S. stock market was very tangled, constantly falling back to EMA200 5 times.
The market had already retreated twice before the interest rate cut on the 18th. It can be predicted that the market will still be very tangled after the interest rate cut.
Why are the market concerns and sentiments similar in these two paragraphs?
The bulls have reasons to be bullish, tightening is over and easing is beginning;
The bears have their reasons for being bearish. Tail risk, will inflation recur? Will the economy go into recession?
It can be expected that the next month will be a process of constantly testing the bottom, and the corresponding crypto market will also usher in a repeated bottom shock.
If there is a good decline during this period and the bottom is tested repeatedly and holds, the second half of this bull market may begin.
The premise is that there will be no real black swan event in the future. After 2019, the US stock market continued to rise until it reached 312. This is the biggest hidden worry in the second half of the bull market.
Under similar market conditions, the probability of a bull market in the next one or two months is not high, and the weekly pressure around 70k is still very strong.
The ideal situation would be that as the U.S. stock market continues to test EMA200, the currency would also develop a good bottoming structure, rather than a continuous V-reversal like before. In that case, the second half of the bull market can be expected.
Can the small bull market turn into a big bull market in the second half?
The biggest question remains: Will there be a black swan? And what level of black swan will it be?
The biggest challenges are repeated inflation and economic resilience, and of course there are also risks that may arise from Japan's interest rate hikes and a stronger yen.
We can only wait and see. I tend to be cautious and take profits in time if the second half of the bull market begins. After all, the last thing the cryptocurrency world lacks is black swans.
I think there are two possible outcomes for the next market situation:
First: BTC has formed a head-and-shoulders bottom structure in the current market. The market will still be dominated by fluctuations in the next 20 days. The 25 basis point interest rate cut in September has little impact on the overall market. The market will continue to fluctuate upward, and a major market will start after mid-October.
Second: After the interest rate cut is implemented, the economic recession is confirmed, and Japan starts to make trouble, there will be a wave of liquidation of deep contracts, and the bottom of 49,000 will be tested again to see if this price can hold. But I think that once it falls below 52,000, the target will not be 49,000, but the range of 46,000 to 48,000. But it should not last for a long time, and this price is mainly for liquidating contracts.
Looking at Bitcoin's current consolidation trend, it is highly similar to that in 2019:
The current trend of BTC and the trend of BTC in 2019, history is always surprisingly similar but not the same.
Overall, what I most hope to see is: the first result, but we must also be prepared for the worst.
After the Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF were approved, two completely different data appeared. Bitcoin started to be bought non-stop after it was approved on January 10, 2024, and the buying power was weakened in the short three months after July as the price fell. In the previous few days, there was a net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF for 8 consecutive days, and many people began to panic. My view at the time was that it was just a risk aversion of large funds due to the unclear situation before and after the September interest rate cut.
Once the market comes and the trend is confirmed, a large amount of funds will still be invested in buying.
However, regarding the Ethereum spot ETF, it is definitely a good thing in the long run, but I think the short-term decline has the following two most important reasons:
First, the overall market is in a volatile downward trend, and it is difficult for ETH to break out of the unilateral market. At the same time, there are currently no major breakthroughs in the entire Ethereum ecosystem, or phenomenal projects.
Second, the Ethereum spot ETF was first approved in Hong Kong, and a group of early large institutions and investors in Shanghai had a legal and compliant way to convert ETH into a gold standard through Hong Kong, which created a certain amount of selling pressure.
From a medium to long-term perspective, this round of hype must be compliant, and this is also good for BTC and ETH.
Will the market rebound or reverse in the future? It is not important. It is important to think about a few questions:
1. If it is a reversal, is the position large enough? If it is not large enough or close to an empty position, how to get on board and at what position to intervene?
2. If it is just a rebound, in the market that is pulling back and forth, should you sell the chips in your hand that are at a relatively low level?
3. The current market is very unfriendly to short-term players, so would it be a better choice to expand the space and time?
4. If you decide to start selling your chips in the crazy bull market next year, many high-quality assets now have a very high cost-performance ratio. Don’t easily consider whether they will fall or how much they can rise in the short term?
Even if it is a very cost-effective deal, the price will definitely be higher than the current price next year. How much higher? How much can you earn? It depends on the underlying assets you select. For example, when the BTC price is $58,000, if you bought it at $26,000 or $28,000 last year, is it meaningful to enter the market? Do you still care?
5. You must have your own reasonable position management plan, and know clearly how much you want to earn in this round? How to roll positions? How to change positions? Instead of buying everything you see?
