Altcoin capitalization TOTAL3 (excluding ETH) has probably set a low and is preparing for a strong growth. The post is contraindicated for those expecting that "alt will fall to zero" 😁.
The market dump on August 5 sent the capitalization of altcoins under an important support - an upward trend since October 2023 (growth on the Bitcoin ETF narrative). But from there it showed a V-shaped reversal. And although the capitalization of altcoins then returned under this trend again in early September - now there is a fight for it and the capitalization has returned above the volume level of $ 549.339 billion.
There are two very important trend resistances on the TOTAL3 chart now:
- From the high of March 31, 2024 - its breakdown will be an early signal that the altseason has begun.
- From hai November 8, 2021 - her test will be already during the altseason.
We set alerts for a breakout.
The TOTAL3 chart from January 2022 can be considered as a pGiP, but more harmoniously - as a "Cup with a handle". The "neckline" of the pattern is the volume level of $ 809.185 billion. The full target when worked out is $ 1.252 trillion. BUT this is only the workout of the impulse embedded in the consolidation. What could be the full target of the cycle?
Let us recall that the co-founder of Real Vision and CEO of Global Macro Investor, former top manager of Goldman Sachs Raoul Pal said in July of this year that he expects the market capitalization of altcoins (excluding ETH) to increase 10-fold in the current cycle. At that time, the talk was about growth to $6.045 trillion. Let us recall that we are talking about the altcoin market EXCLUDING #ETH. If someone thinks that this is too strong a growth, then you can look at past cycles and see that it is only a matter of scale.
So far, looking at this chart on history, there is no reason not to believe Pal.
Capitalization, like asset prices, can be viewed through the prism of waves. After all, capitalization is largely determined by the rise or fall of prices. And this approach gives food for thought.
The TOTAL3 chart dates back to 2017 and if you look at history, the situation developed in the same way in the last two cycles:
1) Initial growth in wave 1.
2) Correction in wave 2.
3) The most powerful (!) growth in wave 3. When the third wave of altcoin capitalization growth comes, these are the same “X’s”, the alt season.
4) A sharp and strong correction in wave 4.
5) The same sharp rise in wave 5 (may only slightly rewrite the high of wave 3).
6) Sharp correction in wave A.
7) The same sharp rebound in wave B.
8) A long and exhausting decline in wave C, turning into consolidation before a new cycle and into a new wave 1.
We show how it looked in the two previous cycles. There are not many cycles, but we work with what we have. AT THE SAME TIME, in the current cycle in 1-2-3-4-5 and in A-B-C we did not disturb the global structure of the entire cycle, but only its start. The current structure 1-2-3-4-5 is only the global wave 1 of growth in this cycle. The current structure A-B-C is only the global corrective wave 2 of growth in this cycle. In previous cycles, such local disturbing of global waves can also be done.
Now we are expecting the third wave in this cycle. The most powerful one. The question is whether the second level has been set. As long as the capitalization is above the volume level of $549.339 billion, we will consider it to be set. An important confirmation of the third wave will be a breakout of the two trend resistances indicated at the beginning of the post.