The market followed the violent rise of the U.S. stock market last night, resulting in a liquidation of 120 million U.S. dollars in short positions in the past 24 hours. Yesterday we talked about a second test. Today, it seems that the second test near 52,500 is effective, but judging from the volume and other indicators, it is still not that strong. We will continue to pay attention to it in the future.
From the 4-hour level, 59,000 has now become a resistance level. If it can get above that, the next strong resistance will be 63,000. This position is also a key point to measure or judge whether the price will continue to rise in the future.
Stay in awe, stay away from contracts, stay optimistic, hold spot, keep learning, and look forward to good things!
From a technical perspective, the current trend of the market has been repaired. In the short term, let's see if the market can hold steady at 56,000 after a correction. At the same time, pay attention to today's debate among the US presidential candidates, as it will have an impact on the market trend, so pay close attention.
It is the first time that the 4-hour downward trend line has been broken since the continuous decline on August 26, and 80% of the recent 4-hour decline has been eaten up.
There is a high probability that this wave of continuous decline of 6.5 has ended. At the same time, since the whole market is so pessimistic, it did not fall below 4.9w in one go last week, and there was no large volume, so everyone can rest assured for a while. Of course, don't think about the main upward wave, the daily line is still shaking.
Last month I said that during market turning points, we should think away from the crowd, and that group sentiment must be wrong. But it was useless. Just one month later, this incident happened again, and the people who panicked were the same group of people who panicked in early August. I don’t know if they sold their shares or shorted at the lowest point. I hope it won’t happen again next month.
From a macro perspective, the market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, and both good and bad news have basically been reacted to. Unless there is no rate cut at 25 o'clock in the early morning of the 19th, there will be large fluctuations. What I most hope for is that the price will remain above 5.2w from now until National Day, for example, it will fluctuate between 5.3w and 6w. Only when it falls below 5.2w will we consider a new low. Those who hold spot bitcoin can also use 5.2 as the dividing line.
The classic weak trend in September will continue to drag down the market. In addition to metaphysical factors, there are also objective factors, such as tax issues, and companies entering a several-week silent period for repurchases.
There are several major events this week:
Inflation: CPI data on Wednesday
Employment: Thursday's initial jobless claims
Others: 9.10 US presidential debate; 9.10 Apple conference
The current market situation is not going to change at all. We can only adapt flexibly to the market and just get through it.
Even if there is a rebound, there are few positive effects:
Despite today’s rebound, there are currently few potential near-term catalysts for Bitcoin, with August and September proving to be unusually weak months for Bitcoin prices, while October and the fourth quarter are typically favorable for price action.
In the weeks leading up to the fourth quarter, Bitcoin bulls may only be looking forward to potential catalysts outside of the cryptocurrency. These include macro news such as employment, inflation data and Fed policy, as well as the U.S. presidential election.
So far, Trump has shown a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies.
Trump and Harris will have a presidential candidate debate this week, and the US government will release August CPI data on Wednesday evening (9/11), which is expected to increase market volatility.
Some institutions seem to think the market has bottomed out and are using this opportunity to increase their bullish bets in December and March, including buying a large number of Bitcoin call options with strike prices of $85,000, $100,000 and $120,000 expiring in March 2025.
September promises to be an interesting month for projects related to Binance and its blockchain. At the end of September, CZ, the former head of the largest cryptocurrency exchange, is set to be released from prison.
Although CZ is banned from managing the company in the future, his influence remains significant as he remains a holder of many projects, and his release from prison could drive a surge in projects invested by Binance.
Retail investors all remember this rule: "Buy the rumor, sell the news."
The charges against Binance are coming to an end. The company is now committed to full transparency, expanding its workforce, and investing in promising stories. The former head, who was once under scrutiny, has now been legally cleared.
Moreover, historically, BTC has generally performed well in October. October is autumn, so maybe it will happen again.
With so many coincidences, will there be a big surge in October?
