What does Buffett's cash level represent? Is it a leading indicator or a lagging indicator? What does it mean that their cash is approaching an astonishing $300 billion recently? (I)

This is an article that has been delayed for a long time. I have wanted to write it since I saw Buffett selling Apple to cash out. In this article, I will combine the changes in his cash level with the dynamics of the US stock market in the corresponding period to draw my conclusions. However, the conclusion is ultimately a personal opinion based on data. Welcome to discuss different opinions in the comment area.

First of all, is $300 billion a lot?

300 billion in cash is a lot of money for any company. But for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), it may not be as much as you think. When we measure this amount of money, we need to see how much of it accounts for the company? We use his latest Total Asset to calculate how much of the total assets are in cash on hand?

The calculation shows that the current cash accounts for 24% of the total assets.

This is terribly high!

Why do you say that? I have climbed up this value in the past five years (2018-2023). Usually the cash ratio fluctuates between 11% and 18%, but never exceeds 20%.

However, from March 2022 to now, the cash scale has risen sharply. From 106 billion to 276 billion, the proportion has also jumped from the previous 11% to 24%.

Why is this the case? Buffett said something in this year's shareholders' meeting, which I think is the answer to this question:

"We will only swing at the right time! There is no investment target that is attractive enough for me to allocate assets now"#美联储何时降息？ #BTC走势分析