BTC's spot premium index briefly returned to positive in the strong rebound last night, but the premium has now turned negative again. After sorting out the recent small-scale market, we can see that the spot selling pressure did have a continuous supply before the price reached 56,000;

But in the rapid price drop yesterday morning, the spot did not participate, but it was a wave of rapid decline led by futures shorts, the purpose of which was to knock down the long stop loss of 56,100 on the left;

After capturing the liquidity, the position was closed immediately, forming a V-reversal on the small-scale K-line.

Subsequently, during the opening of the U.S. stock market yesterday, driven by the U.S. stock market, spot buying began to gradually enter the market, slowly pushing the premium to near the positive value. Then, in the small increase from 57700 to 58300, the participation of spot buying decreased, and futures bulls began to follow up, causing the premium to return to the negative range again;

From the current short-term market, the area with spot buying demand on the market is between 56700-57700, that is, before there is no new spot demand, the price is likely to step back to the green order block area in the figure again, which happens to be the 4H level FVG.

If the corresponding callback occurs, we can take this opportunity to observe whether the demand for spot buying is sufficient:

1. If the price callback to this area, the spot premium begins to rise significantly, which means that the demand side is willing to buy at a higher position, and the futures shorts are still adding fuel to the market. This will be an opportunity to buy more on the callback;

2. If the price callback to this area, the spot premium begins to decline significantly, which means that the previous rebound is aimed at grabbing short liquidity, and the spot demand is only short-lived. Then this 4h-level "bottom-breaking" is likely to be a lure to buy more, and the price will continue the previous volatile downward trend. There is a risk of buying more in this area;

In general, the main purpose of paying attention to the spot premium is to see whether the demand side re-enters the market, because there is a price behavior worth looking at on the market, so we only need to exclude the manipulation of "lure to buy more". #Telegram创始人获保释 #非农就业数据即将公布