👉🏻 This year, people seem to like using the U.S. stock market index as a reference for $BTC price trends. Is the positive correlation between the two really that strong?
PumpPump captures the trends of the U.S. stock index (the S&P 500 index is used here, which includes 500 popular stocks and covers about 80% of the total market value of publicly listed companies in the United States) and Bitcoin prices in the past year, with a granularity of / day and aligned to the timeline.
In this way, we can intuitively compare the correlation between the US stock market and BTC trends:
💡 We can conclude that:
Most of the time, when the U.S. stock index rises, the price of Bitcoin will also rise synchronously, and the same is true when it falls, and the overall trend remains consistent, which also confirms the fact that this round of bull market is dominated by the United States.
However, there are often large one-sided market conditions, in which the two trends do not follow each other, for example:
In October 2023, the U.S. stock market fell sharply for several weeks in a row, but Bitcoin continued to rise
In January 2024, Bitcoin spot passed. After consolidation, Bitcoin soared to a new high, but the US stock index rose slowly.
In July 2024, Nvidia's market value surpassed Microsoft, driving a surge in the U.S. technology sector, but Bitcoin suffered a sharp drop due to the German government's selling pressure and the Mt. Gox compensation.
The market is a chaotic system. When trading, you need to refer to information from multiple dimensions. All indicators can only be used for reference and should not be followed blindly. Any indicator may in turn become a tool for the dealer to harvest you!
Do Your Own Research 🤟
