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Macro News
1. Xu Xingfeng, Director of the Market Operation and Consumption Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said that we must ensure the coordination of policies before and after. We will work with relevant departments to issue a notice as soon as possible to further improve the work of old-for-new exchanges for automobiles and home appliances, and to introduce work guidelines for "renewal" of home kitchen and bathroom decoration, and an implementation plan for old-for-new exchanges for electric bicycles.
2. According to CCTV News, on August 1, local time, the Panama Canal Authority said that it will increase the number of daily ship traffic again in September. Currently, the daily number of ships is 34, which will increase to 35 from August 5, and will increase to 36 from September.
3. The General Office of the State Council recently issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Construction of a Carbon Emission Dual Control System". Improve the management system of key energy-consuming and carbon-emitting units. Formulate and revise carbon emission accounting rules and standards for key industries such as electricity, steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, and chemicals.
4. The General Office of the State Council issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Construction of a Carbon Emission Dual Control System". During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the reduction of carbon emission intensity will be used as a binding indicator for national economic and social development, and the total carbon emission accounting work will be carried out, and energy consumption intensity will no longer be used as a binding indicator.
5. On August 2, local time, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement saying that it had killed Mohammed Jabari, a deputy director of the weapons manufacturing department of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad Organization (Jihad). The Palestinian Islamic Jihad Organization (Jihad) has not yet responded to this.
6. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of August 2, 2024, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (comprehensive index) was 3332.67 points, down 115.20 points from the previous period.
7. The People's Bank of China held a work meeting for the second half of 2024 to study and implement the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. The meeting required that in the second half of the year, we should increase macroeconomic control, strengthen counter-cyclical regulation, do a solid job in key tasks in the second half of the year, and enhance the trend of sustained economic recovery.
8. According to the Times of Israel, an Israeli official told the Walla news website that the commander of the US Central Command, Michael Eric Kurila, will arrive in Israel on Monday to complete preparations with the Israel Defense Forces to defend against an expected Iranian attack.
Global futures market changes
1. Domestic futures closed down more than up in the night session. Crude oil fell 5.22%, fuel oil fell 4.92%, low sulfur fuel oil fell 4.34%, LPG fell 2.57%, PTA fell 1.35%, butadiene rubber fell 1.19%. Soda ash rose 1.13%. Most base metals closed down, Shanghai lead fell 2.13%, Shanghai zinc fell 1.27%, Shanghai aluminum fell 1.12%, Shanghai copper fell 0.97%, Shanghai tin fell 0.2%, Shanghai nickel fell 0.11%, stainless steel rose 0.46%. Shanghai gold fell 1.58%, Shanghai silver fell 1.6%.
2. International precious metal futures closed slightly higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.21% to $2,486.1 per ounce, up 4.41% for the week, and COMEX silver futures up 0.73% to $28.685 per ounce, up 2.37% for the week.
3. International oil prices fell across the board. The August contract of U.S. crude oil fell 2.84% to $74.14 per barrel, a weekly drop of 3.91%; the September contract of Brent crude oil fell 2.46% to $77.56 per barrel, a weekly drop of 3.39%.
4. London base metals closed mixed, with LME copper futures up 0.38% at $9,087/ton, down 0.26% for the week; LME zinc futures down 1.66% at $2,662/ton, down 0.26% for the week; LME nickel futures up 0.54% at $16,370/ton, up 3.65% for the week; LME aluminum futures down 1.44% at $2,263/ton, down 1.14% for the week; LME tin futures up 1.34% at $30,295/ton, up 2.45% for the week; LME lead futures down 1.31% at $2,035/ton, down 1.57% for the week.
5. The main agricultural futures contracts of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed higher collectively, with soybean futures up 1.23% at 1,029 cents per bushel, down 1.86% for the week; corn futures up 1.32% at 403.75 cents per bushel, down 1.52% for the week; and wheat futures up 1.5% at 540 cents per bushel, up 3.15% for the week.
Black hot news
1. According to Mysteel, the current coking capacity in Shaanxi Province is 13.6 million tons, of which 3.2 million tons are 4.3-meter coking capacity, accounting for 24% of the total capacity, and 10.4 million tons are 5.5-meter coking capacity, accounting for 76%. Among them, the 4.3-meter coking capacity accounts for a relatively small proportion, and is currently in full production. Except for Shaanxi steel mills, the downstream supply is concentrated in Shanxi and East China. Shanxi and East China have dense coking capacity and rich coke resources. Overall, the elimination of Shaanxi's backward production capacity has a relatively limited impact on the steel mills in the two places.
2. According to Mysteel, on August 2, mainstream steel mills in Shandong market, steel mills in Hebei market, and some steel mills in Xingtai and Shijiazhuang areas reduced the price of wet quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and the price of dry quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, which will be implemented at 0:00 on August 3, 2024.
3. Data from the China Iron and Steel Association showed that in late July, the inventory of rebar was 4.51 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 2.2%, and a continuous decline in inventory; a decrease of 100,000 tons from late June, a decrease of 2.2%; an increase of 1.46 million tons from the beginning of the year, an increase of 47.9%; an increase of 160,000 tons from the same period last year, an increase of 3.7%.
4. According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as of August 2, 2024, the first batch of new national standard rebar standard warehouse receipts were generated at the Shanghai Futures Exchange delivery warehouse Zhenjiang Huilong Yangtze River Port Co., Ltd., totaling 2,390 tons.
5. On August 1, the People's Bank of China held a work meeting for the second half of 2024. The meeting required the prevention and resolution of real estate financial risks, the implementation of the 300 billion yuan affordable housing re-lending policy, and the acceleration of the establishment of a housing system that promotes both renting and purchasing.
6. According to Gangyin E-commerce, the total urban inventory this week was 11.1439 million tons, a decrease of 66,800 tons (-0.60%) from last week, including 40 cities and a total of 142 warehouses.
Hot news on agricultural products
1. Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of egg, corn starch and live pig options of Dalian Commodity Exchange. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will urge Dalian Commodity Exchange to make all preparations to ensure the smooth launch and stable operation of the above-mentioned options.
2. According to Wind data, as of the week of August 2, the profit of self-breeding and self-raising pig farming was 494.50 yuan/head, and the profit on July 26 was 459.35 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was 323.61 yuan/head, and the profit on July 26 was 374.82 yuan/head.
3. According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, according to monitoring, Chinese companies have completed the purchase of soybeans for August shipment, and nearly 30% of the purchase for September shipment has been completed. It is estimated that the import soybean arrival volume in August and September will be 8 million tons and 7.6 million tons respectively. Recently, companies have increased their purchases of new soybeans from the United States, but the progress is slower than in previous years. Currently, the purchase progress for October-December shipments is less than 10%.
4. According to Mutian Technology, by the end of July, Guangxi had sold 5.0995 million tons of sugar, an increase of 718,800 tons year-on-year; the production and sales rate was 82.50%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year. In July, the monthly sugar sales were 573,300 tons, an increase of 308,900 tons year-on-year.
5. According to the FAO report, the main reason for the rise in sugar prices in July was that Brazil's sugar production in the first half of the month was lower than expected, which completely offset the downward pressure on sugar prices caused by the Indian monsoon and improved weather conditions in Thailand. In addition, the impact of long-term dry weather conditions on Brazil's crop yields in the coming months is still worrying, and the recent strengthening of ethanol prices has provided further support to world sugar prices.
6. India's edible oil imports in July rose 21% month-on-month to 1.85 million tonnes, the second highest on record, according to data from the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA). Palm oil imports surged 39% to 1.09 million tonnes in July, the highest in 11 months. Soybean oil imports in July rose 43% to 394,000 tonnes, the highest in 13 months.
7. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data showing that private exporters reported sales of 202,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in 2024/2025.
8. According to Mysteel Agricultural Products' nationwide dynamic full-sample oil mill survey, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 31st week (July 27 to August 2) was 2.074 million tons, and the operating rate was 59%, which was 85,600 tons lower than expected.
Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News
1. According to Longzhong Information, the latest data shows that as of the week of August 1, the overall output of China's styrene factories was 296,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 0.34%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 68.12%, an increase of 0.21% from the previous month.
2. Institutional analysis pointed out that the OPEC+ Monitoring Committee did not make any recommendations on production issues, which means that the organization plans to gradually lift production cuts starting from the fourth quarter, which shows confidence in the recovery of demand in the summer.
3. Three people with direct knowledge of production said that Libya's largest oil field, Sharara, has begun to partially shut down production. According to people familiar with the matter, Sharara's daily production fell by 30,000 barrels to 230,000 barrels after the operator received an order to start a partial shutdown. It is not clear why the closure was made or when the field will completely stop production.
4. The tropical depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Debbie as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida, USA. Winds and thunderstorms have spread to southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas. By the evening of the 4th, Debbie may bring rain and coastal flooding to much of the Florida Gulf Coast. Forecasts show that the system may come ashore as a strong tropical storm or hurricane on the 5th and cross northern Florida into the Atlantic Ocean.
Metal Hot News
1. According to Mysteel's survey and statistics, as of August 1, the national alumina capacity utilization rate was 86.37%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from last week. The equipment maintenance of an alumina plant in North China has been completed and full production has been restored.
2. According to Jiemian News, on August 1, the voting results of the union of the Escondida copper mine in Chile were released. A total of 2,371 workers voted in favor of the strike, accounting for about 99.75% of the union members. If the union members go on strike, the mine will not be able to produce copper because the law prohibits the use of replacement workers, and the union represents 98.5% of the front-line operators at Escondida. If this strike becomes a reality, it may once again affect the global copper supply and push up copper prices.
3. U.S. employment growth slowed more than expected in July, adding only 114,000 people, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. This may exacerbate concerns about a deterioration in the job market and may push the economy into recession. U.S. President Joe Biden issued a statement on the July non-farm payrolls report, saying that Friday's report showed that while the inflation rate fell significantly, employment growth was more sluggish.
Bragging about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!
1. Bullish funds enter the market to buy at the bottom, is soda ash sounding the rallying cry for a counterattack?
Zhonghui Futures believes that last week, the main soda ash rose sharply, breaking the 1800 integer mark in one fell swoop. On the news front, last week, it was rumored that Shenzhen further relaxed the purchase restrictions, real estate stocks rose abnormally, and the black series and the highly correlated glass and soda ash rose collectively. Among them, the main short positions of soda ash were reduced on a large scale, and the long funds entered the market at the bottom, causing soda ash, the "darling of funds", to reverse again. Although the subsequent accumulation of inventory has intensified and the supply pressure is still relatively large, it is not recommended to be overly bearish on soda ash under the expectation of downstream policies and the "price-for-volume" of soda ash. In the short term, pay attention to the gains and losses of the 5-day line of the daily chart, and try to buy on dips above the support.
2. Palm oil prices have strengthened again. Can they break out of the volatility range in the future?
Ruida Futures analysis pointed out that data released by independent inspection company AmspecAgri showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 to 31 were 1,555,529 tons, an increase of 30.92% from 1,188,180 tons exported in the same period last month. Malaysia's strong export data boosted the price of Malaysian palm oil; but data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Pressers Association (SPPOMA) showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2024 increased by 13.56% month-on-month. Although Malaysian palm oil production declined in June, palm oil is in the production season, and the increase in Malaysian palm oil production has significantly suppressed price increases; domestically, spot prices have risen slightly, downstream rigid purchases, fewer transactions during the week, and oils are in the off-season, and inventories have increased overall. At the same time, the soybean-palm oil price gap is inverted, palm oil's cost-effectiveness has decreased, and the probability of a price decline has increased.
A look at this week's important futures data and events
1. August 5th, to be determined, MPOA will announce Malaysia's July crude palm oil production; August 6th, to be determined, SPPOMA will announce Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1st to 5th. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2024 increased by 13.56% month-on-month. Data released by MPOA shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1st to 20th is estimated to increase by 14.95%. Pay attention to the crude palm oil production data this time. If the production continues to increase, it may put pressure on palm oil.
2. At 09:45 on August 5, China released the Caixin Services/Comprehensive PMI for July. The National Bureau of Statistics previously released the non-manufacturing PMI data for July. In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point. Pay attention to the performance of the Caixin Services PMI in July.
3. On August 5 at 20:30, Goolsbee, FOMC voting member in 2025 and president of the Chicago Fed, was interviewed by CNBC. On August 6 at 05:00, Mary Daly, FOMC voting member in 2024 and president of the San Francisco Fed, delivered a speech. On August 9 at 3:00, Barkin, FOMC voting member in 2024 and president of the Richmond Fed, participated in a fireside chat. Fed Chairman Powell previously hinted at a press conference that the Fed may start cutting interest rates in September, and said that it depends on data performance. Pay attention to the comments on monetary policy in the speeches of Fed officials.
4. USDA crop growth report at 04:00 on August 6. Analysis shows that the latest USDA-published US soybean quality rate remains high at 67%, in line with market expectations, which continues to release the pressure of high yields in the market. The marginal space for weather speculation has weakened, while the support provided by US soybean exports is limited, and the weak bottoming trend of US soybeans continues.
5. At 12:30 on August 6, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; at 13:30 on the same day, the Chairman of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bullock, held a monetary policy press conference. After weak inflation data cut bets on rate hikes, the market expected the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged.
6. At 0:00 on August 7, EIA released its monthly short-term energy outlook report. Pay attention to the EIA's monthly crude oil report's adjustments to the US crude oil production and natural gas production expectations.
7. At 9:30 on August 9, China announced the CPI and PPI data for July. Previous data showed that in June, the national consumer price index rose by 0.2% year-on-year and fell by 0.2% month-on-month, and the PPI fell by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Pay attention to the latest data changes.
8. August 10th (To be determined) ITS/AmSpec/SGS will release Malaysia's palm oil export data from August 1st to 10th. Previous data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1st to 31st increased by 23% to 31% month-on-month. We will pay attention to whether the growth trend of Malaysia's palm oil exports can continue. If it continues to grow, it may be good for palm oil prices.
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data