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CME Fed Watch: The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged tonight is as high as 96.9%

According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at this week's meeting is as high as 96.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 3.1%. Looking ahead, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 0%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 87.7%, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 12.0%, and the probability of a 75 basis point rate cut is only 0.2%.

: The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged as high as 96.9% indicates that the market's expectations for the Fed to maintain its current interest rate policy are very stable. This result helps market participants develop clearer investment strategies and reduce uncertainty.

The probability of a 3.1% rate cut indicates that the Fed is extremely unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term. Investors should pay attention to economic data and policy trends in the coming months to adjust their investment portfolios.

Medium- and long-term policy trends: The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by September is as high as 87.7%, indicating that the market generally expects the Fed to begin to ease monetary policy in the coming months. This trend will have a profound impact on the bond market and the stock market, and investors need to plan ahead.

The data from CME's "Fed Watch" provides a clear expectation of the Fed's short-term and medium-term policy direction.

The Lao Lin community will continue to provide you with the latest market analysis and trading strategies. The next wave of opportunities is ready, and I look forward to discussing and communicating with you in the community, sharing more successful experiences and trading skills.

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