Bitcoin has once again been on a roller coaster ride.

Around 21:00 last night, BTC broke through 70,000 USDT again after more than a month, and once rose to 70,050 USDT. However, just as the market was speculating whether this would be a sign of BTC setting a new high, BTC suffered a rapid and substantial correction. As of 10:00 today, BTC once fell below 66,000 USDT, and is currently recovering slightly, with the price at 66,700 at the time of posting.

Yesterday afternoon, everyone in the group was talking about which one to buy at the bottom when the bull market rebounded. Fortunately, I persuaded them to stop, otherwise, they would have been trapped again today after yesterday's rush due to their emotions.

There are all kinds of opinions in the market at present. We don't judge who is right or wrong, because everyone has their own ideas and everyone has the same understanding of the market. There is no need to distort other people's opinions. If you think it's bullish, just hold on to the good goods and wait for the surge. If you think it's bearish, just clear out and lie flat. No matter what the final result is, just don't regret the decision you made.

The cow is not gone, it is not coming yet

Combining the news in the market and the on-chain data, I feel that the bull market is not gone, but has not yet arrived.

Judging from the ETF inflow/outflow situation, institutions are still optimistic about BTC for the time being. Yesterday, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of US$123.1 million, which means that in the past half month (only counting trading days), there was only one day of net outflow in the ETF market, and the other more than ten trading days maintained positive inflows.

The Bitcoin network computing power hit a record high of 724 EH/s, and the 7-day average computing power is also close to the historical high. The recovery of computing power indicates that miners, an important community member, are firmly optimistic about the future market, and it also becomes an effective support for BTC to hit a record high in the future market.

On-chain data

CME BTC contract positions

CME's positions have been growing continuously since July 5, and began to reduce on July 23. After Trump's speech at the Bitcoin conference on July 28, the positions increased again.

The corresponding logical change is that after July 5, funds were bullish on the market. On July 23, near the pressure level and the Bitcoin conference, some selling funds reduced their positions. After Trump's speech, BTC fell, but quickly rebounded, indicating that the decline caused by selling funds was limited, so some funds were bullish on the future market and re-entered the market.

Leveraged fund short positions increased by 103 contracts and 515 BTC last week (2024/07/16 – 2024/07/23). Usually, when this indicator is upward, it also means that the spot side of arbitrage funds is also increasing their positions, and when the indicator drops to the turning point, it indicates that there will be an upward trend after the short positions are closed.

Stablecoin Supply Oscillator (SSRO)

When SSRO hit the bottom on July 9, it was already lower than the low point in August-September last year, indicating that the participation of funds in the market was rapidly declining. But this also formed a turning point and rebounded from the low point. This relatively low position is a relatively good rebound condition for the cottage industry.

Changes in the proportion of long-term and short-term BTC holders

The blue part shows the change in the proportion of BTC held by long-term holders. According to the previous two bull markets in 2017 and 2021, there will be two decreases in the proportion of BTC held by long-term holders, and the second decrease will be greater than the first.

From December 2023 to April 2024, during the main uptrend of BTC, long-term BTC holders continued to sell. Since April, BTC has entered a wide range of fluctuations, and long-term holders have stopped selling and tend to continue holding BTC.

BTC long-term holders have unrealized net gains and losses

In the two cycles of 2017 and 2021, the unrealized net profit and loss of BTC long-term holders entered the blue area and exceeded 0.75. Since this round of market, the indicator has not entered the blue area and is still running in the green area. It is believed that the indicator should enter the blue area and run for a period of time to form the top of this round of market.

BTC short-term holders have unrealized net gains and losses

In a bull market, when the unrealized net profit and loss of BTC short-term holders is close to 0 or below 0, a relative stage bottom will be formed. It was below 0 twice in 2023 and twice in 2024. From the end of June to the beginning of July 2024, the unrealized net profit and loss of short-term holders was below 0, and it recovered to above 0 on July 15. Referring to the trend in September 2023, the main rise may be formed in the future.

The cost of pulling up directly to the 70,000 level is a bit high. It is close to the previous high, and short-term holdings are basically profitable. In addition, there are a lot of long positions, and it will not be easy to pull it up to let you take profit. On the contrary, the integer level of 70,000 is basically the stop loss point or even the liquidation price for many short positions. Moreover, the integer levels are basically recognized support or resistance levels, and it will not be easy to break through in one fell swoop.

After a small fluctuation, people will be washed off to facilitate the subsequent rise. Will it fall sharply to 50,000 or 40,000 to pick you up? Impossible, it will be difficult to drop below 6.5 or 6.3.

All news is in line with the market situation

All the negative factors at the bottom are just to scare you, because the main force wants to buy goods

All the good news at high points are to lure you in, because the main force wants to sell.

It is best not to move the spot goods. The market will be good in August. Those who are short can take advantage of the bad news and panic sentiment to gradually lay out the copycat.

The US government has begun to transfer the big pie and create panic. I feel that the chances of selling are slim, because Trump has just announced a series of things, and it is more of a high-level turnover that will help a new step higher.

Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together.