Written by: Huang Yu

Source: Wall Street Journal

US President Biden announced his withdrawal from the election on Sunday. Who will take over the Democratic Party and compete with Trump next?

Vice President Kamala Harris is the favorite, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has vigorously promoted renewable energy, and Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro, who respectively govern two major swing states.

Kamala Harris

Harris' biggest advantage is that Biden has endorsed her. Biden himself said on social media on the 22nd that he would fully support Harris to become the Democratic Party's candidate this year.

This also means that compared with other candidates, Harris is more likely to gain support because Harris is basically continuing Biden's policies, and the campaign funds that originally supported Biden are very likely to support her in the future.

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Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG, pointed out that in terms of policy, Biden and Harris have almost no differences on major issues. Harris is basically continuing Biden's policies, perhaps with only a slight change in focus. For example, Harris is a staunch advocate of addressing climate change. She has expressed her concerns and worries about climate change on many occasions, ‌emphasizing the impact of climate change on the global economy and society‌, and proposed some response strategies.

She is also pushing for a $6,000 tax rebate for low- and middle-income families, and a growing number of Democratic leaders are backing her, including the Clintons.

Gavin Newsom

If Harris does not get the nomination, California Governor Gavin Newsom will be considered the best candidate. On the one hand, California is the Democratic Party’s base, and no matter who the nominee is, the Democratic Party has almost no chance of losing.

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Newsom, on the other hand, has the advantage of having experience running a major campaign and has even participated in one debate this cycle -- last December with then-Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis.

In terms of policy, Newsom also firmly defends Biden's economic policies. In California, he actively promotes renewable energy policies, hoping to make California use only clean energy within 20 years.

More critically, Newsom said last week that he would not challenge Harris if she sought to run for president.

Gretchen Whitmer

In addition to Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is also a major candidate, partly because she has been working in the swing state of Michigan for more than five years, and Michigan's impact on the general election is crucial.

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In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Whitmer defeated her Republican challenger by 10 percentage points, leading Democrats to believe that as a presidential or even vice presidential nominee, Whitmer could bring support not only to Michigan, but also to other "Rust Belt" states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Whitmer has been more moderate on policy than some of her rivals, encouraging economic development incentives for big companies like Ford Motor Co. to expand in the state. That has irked some local lawmakers who say the money should be spent on public infrastructure. As a candidate, she won support from wealthy Michigan suburbs that were alienated by Trump.

Josh Shapiro

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who like Whitmer has the advantage of running a swing state, has only been governor of Pennsylvania for a year and a half, but has built a national profile in his previous role as state attorney general.

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As governor, Shapiro tried to maintain a balance between promoting the transition to new energy while maintaining some areas of Pennsylvania that rely on traditional fossil fuel employment. He proposed a plan for carbon emissions, in which Pennsylvania will establish its own independent carbon pricing plan, in which most of the emission costs will be borne by traditional energy power plants to reduce consumers' electricity bills.

He also polls much better than Biden in a theoretical matchup with Trump. A BlueLabs Analytics poll earlier this month showed candidates like Shapiro and Whitmer outperforming Biden by "about 5 percentage points" in swing states. Even if Shapiro doesn't win the presidential nomination, that polling data could make him a potential vice presidential candidate.

But like Newsom, Shapiro voiced his support for Harris on Sunday, saying in a statement that uniting behind the vice president was "the best path forward for the Democratic Party."

Therefore, judging from everyone’s statements, if Harris continues to run for election, Whitmer, Newsom, and Shapiro will most likely make way for her.