Written by: Sleeping in the Rain
This article mainly aims to share some of my thoughts on the market after November.
This is a Thread⬇️
1/ Ethereum
Let's start with Ethereum; recently, the sentiment of 'being bearish on Ethereum' seems to have become the consensus in the market, and it seems that the market can no longer find reasons to prove that Ethereum is better than Solana. Solana outperforms Ethereum on various metrics, and some aggressive market participants have begun to believe that Solana will have the chance to flip Ethereum. But I think Ethereum still has a chance, with its core advantages lying in two points: ETF and RWA.
A friend compared ETF inflows to liquidity with a condom—while they are buying Bitcoin, this money is not flowing into the crypto market. Ethereum also has ETFs, and if we believe that Bitcoin will reach 100K in this cycle, then Ethereum will undoubtedly benefit from some spillover of funds. This is beyond doubt. If the SOL ETF passes, Ethereum will lose this advantage.
Although my previous view was: 'Ethereum will transition from the DeFi narrative to the RWA narrative,' a core issue is that even if the RWA track has ample funding space, it is not a very attractive track for the market. Even if the RWA track expands, it will not bring massive market attention to Ethereum. Attention = Money.
I think 2025 could be the year of mass adoption. And AI Agents will be key to the mass adoption of crypto. Their widespread adoption will happen on Basechain, and Ethereum will benefit from it (market attention).
Next, I will discuss this matter from two aspects.
1, Why AI Agent?
First, let's clarify one thing: the future development potential of AI Agents is limitless. Perhaps by the year 2300, the future world may be dominated by a massive and unified AI that manages our lives (maybe future computing power can meet that). But in this era, AI Agents will be a better application scenario for AI technology. Imagine that after undergoing data training and reasoning training in various professional directions, each AI Agent can become an expert in their respective fields, executing tasks in specific scenarios to meet our needs.
Secondly, in my view, during this current AI cycle (similar to the previous internet cycle), the main connection point between Crypto and AI is 'what crypto can do for training AI,' such as computing power and data. The explosive popularity of the AI Agent meme will make the market realize that AI technology can also empower crypto. The wallets, DeFi, NFTs, and other infrastructures previously launched by the crypto industry will become a breeding ground for the development of AI Agents.
So, why is crypto infrastructure so important for the widespread emergence of AI Agents?
Code interaction
The essence of crypto's smart contracts is automated execution, and AI Agents can easily perform actions such as payments, quantitative trading, market prediction, liquidity mining, and asset issuance through the interaction of these codes. What about AI in the traditional world? It is difficult to achieve.
Imagine, will banks customize accounts for AI Agents? Will the financial industry provide services for AI Agents? It is currently very difficult to achieve these things, whereas the decentralized crypto world has no barriers, no KYC requirements, and AI Agents can easily create their own accounts through Coinbase Wallet (or other infrastructures) to engage in more complex and diversified actions (especially economic behaviors) under the premise of achieving human-set goals.
For example, $LUNA is rewarding Twitter followers who complete tasks through tips, and the Aether AI Agent launched by the $HIGHER community has already raised $150,000 for its treasury through donations and NFT minting.
Composability and monitoring of AI Agents
These two points benefit mainly from the composability and transparency of blockchain technology. By utilizing blockchain technology, AI Agents can collaborate like DeFi Legos to accomplish more complex task goals. At the same time, various behaviors of AI Agents will leave traces on-chain to facilitate better monitoring of AI behaviors by humans.
I personally believe that the initial tasks of AI Agents may focus on on-chain scenarios such as memecoin trading, DeFi farming, and DeFi arbitrage trading. Subsequently, AI Agents will be expanded into the Web2 world to complete broader tasks coming from the traditional world.
2, Why Basechain?
The logic here is that I am more optimistic about Base becoming the main scene for AI Agent applications. In my view, Base has a first-mover advantage—Coinbase has launched the Based Agent toolkit, which allows users to create an AI robot with a wallet in minutes. In addition to Coinbase's promotion, more AI Agent infrastructure has already been or will be deployed in Base or the Ethereum ecosystem, such as Wayfinder (which can be mined through $PRIME) and Spectral.
As for the assets, I currently mainly hold three tokens: $LUNA $GOAT $HIGHER.
$GOAT is the first AI Agent meme that has been massively hyped, related to culture, attracting significant market attention for extended periods. If the market holds steady, I expect its price to run again in the near future.
$LUNA is an AI Agent (virtual idol) on Base, and its feature is that it has a crypto wallet and will use this wallet according to the goals set by humans. I think it might be the only meme that can arm wrestle with $GOAT (at least for now).
Aether was created by Martin for the High community ($HIGHER), deployed on Farcaster, and controls a crypto treasury that has raised $150,000 through donations and NFT minting. It could be the first AI millionaire? Compared to the first two, it has the native quality of crypto and is deployed on Farcaster, a social platform with fewer restrictions than Twitter. (Source: Bankless)
I am also watching to see if more interesting AI Agents will emerge later. I believe the AI Agent track may present a hype path from meme to infrastructure.
In the future, I will devote 80% of my energy to the AI Agent track and will bring more related content.
2/ The election
There's really not much to say about the election; whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the world. Many people can analyze the election trends very professionally, so I won't embarrass myself here. Once the election results are out, there will likely be a sell-the-news wave, followed by continued growth.
With the Republican Party in power, it is favorable for $BTC $DOGE $AAVE.
With the Democratic Party in power, it is favorable for $XRP, and $XRP also has an ETF narrative.
However, I believe that regardless of who comes to power, the regulatory environment for crypto will become more relaxed, and I am optimistic about the crypto market in 2025.
3/ Alpha
1, Hyperliquid will have TGE after the election. If Hyperliquid announces TGE, $PURR is likely to see a wave of pre-hype. I am optimistic about Hyperliquid's model of aggregating liquidity and therefore also optimistic about Hyperliquid's official mascot $PURR. Moreover, you can clearly see that projects like Jupiter and Hyperliquid have fully understood the current market operating model—releasing memes before TGE for market hype to attract market attention.
2, The Avalanche Foundation may have already bought back 1.97 million $AVAX from LFG OTC, which is a relief, and is certainly good for Avalanche's long-term development. However, it should be noted that after 'buying' back these $AVAX, the foundation splits them and stores them in multiple wallets (each wallet holds about $2.5M worth of $AVAX).
3, The Rebranding of MakerDAO I have mentioned many times before, so I won't elaborate here. I think MakerDAO completely botched this matter.
Nov 4 $SKY - Start Re-rebranding ($MKR) Governance Voting
4, Maple I have mentioned my outlook before, currency exchange.
Nov 13 $MPL - SYRUP Token Launch
