From the perspective of Powell's speech this time, I summarize as follows:

1. Given the progress of inflation in the past two years, high inflation is no longer the only economic risk. We are quite clear about this, and I have repeatedly told you that the Fed's interest rate cuts are not so related to CPI now, but rather depend on the US economic data. This time Powell's official statement made it clear that the current interest rate policy is not concerned with high inflation, but more with the economy itself.

2. The latest data show that the labor market has cooled significantly, and the unexpected weakness of the labor market may be a reason for a rate cut. The next step is unlikely to be a rate hike, and no timetable for rate cuts is provided. In recent months, it is rare for the Fed to publicly state that the labor market is not good now. In fact, many people are saying that the US non-agricultural data is distorted. I guess the Fed also has other reference indicators, but they are not told to the public. In the future, if the labor market gets worse, interest rates will start to be cut, but there is no way to estimate when the interest rate cut will be made.

3. Too early or excessive interest rate cuts may hinder or even reverse the decline in inflation, while too late or too little action may excessively weaken the economy and employment. This basically states that interest rate cuts are actually a very skillful thing. The Federal Reserve will be cautious about the timing of interest rate cuts, because if the operation is wrong, it may have a counterproductive effect.

Conclusion: The probability of a rate cut in September is now more than 70%. If the US economy does not show obvious signs of improvement in the past two months, it is estimated that the first rate cut will really begin in September. Finally, there is a glimmer of hope for a rate cut. #美国CPI数据即将公布 #币安7周年 #BTC