#今日市场观点
Recently, as the German government continues to sell off Bitcoin and the Mt. Gox exchange begins to repay creditors, Bitcoin has fallen several times. However, Bitcoin climbed upward amid volatility yesterday, breaking through to $59,400 around noon today, with a fierce battle between bulls and bears. As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin was $58,400, up 2.45% in the past 24 hours.
The main reason for Bitcoin's rebound in the past two days is that Germany's sale of $200 million worth of Bitcoin did not actually enter the market; and on July 8, the Bitcoin spot ETF achieved a net inflow of $295 million, the highest level in 21 days, thus providing good support for the price of Bitcoin.
Although Bitcoin may slowly rise and reach the $60,000 mark, Daxian believes that this wave of gains may be short-lived, and there is still a certain downside risk in the medium-term trend. From a technical point of view, 55,000-56,000 forms a short-term bottom. Considering that investors' panic in the market has declined, a rebound in Bitcoin prices is inevitable. However, the market needs to absorb the selling pressure from the German government's sell-off and Mt. Gox's repayment to creditors, and this situation is expected to continue until the interest rate cut begins.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the current price is running between the upper and middle tracks of the Bollinger Band, and is sliding down from the upper track, indicating that it is currently facing a certain correction pressure, and the Bollinger Band opening is expanding, indicating that subsequent market fluctuations will be relatively large.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the current KDJ three-line value forms a death cross signal downward in the overbought area. This situation is an obvious sell signal and the price will be adjusted back.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line are running slightly above the 0 axis, but there are signs of turning downward. If they turn downward to form a dead cross, the price will fall further. The MACD red bar chart begins to shrink, indicating that the bullish momentum has slowed down, and we need to be alert to the possibility of a pullback.
Bitcoin one-hour chart
First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the current price is above the middle track of the Bollinger Band but close to the lower track. It may test the support of the lower track in the short term. The Bollinger Band opening is large, indicating that the market fluctuates greatly, and we need to be vigilant about the risks brought by distance fluctuations.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the K-line value and the D-line value form a death cross signal at the median, and the J-line value has fallen below 50, indicating that it will further weaken in the short term.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line form a dead cross phenomenon downward above the 0 axis, and the MACD green bar chart begins to gradually increase, indicating that the price will fall further.
Comprehensive analysis: Bitcoin shows signs of a possible pullback in the short term on both the 4-hour and 1-hour charts. Both the MACD and KDJ indicators show a weakening of upward momentum, and the Bollinger Bands also show the resistance and support positions that the price may face.
To sum up, the master gives the following suggestions for your reference:
Bitcoin is short near 58300, target 57300, if it breaks, look at 56700, defense 59000.
It is better to give you a correct idea and trend than to give you a 100% accurate suggestion. After all, it is better to teach a man to fish than to give him a fish. Suggestions can make money for a while, but ideas can make money for a lifetime! What I focus on is the idea, the grasp of the trend, the layout of the market and the position planning. All I can do is to use my practical experience to help you so that your investment decisions and business management will go in the right direction.
Writing time: (2024-07-10, 20:40)
(Text - Daxian Shuobi) Hereby declare: There is a delay in online release, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is committed to the research and analysis of investment fields such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, foreign exchange, and stocks. He has been involved in the financial market for many years and has rich experience in real-time operations. Investments are risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market. For more real-time market analysis, please pay attention. Let’s discuss and communicate with the heavy-numbered immortals and coins. $BTC
