On Monday, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 opened higher. On Wednesday, Powell will testify on the semi-annual monetary policy. On Thursday, the US will release the inflation index CPI for April (previous value 3.3%, expected value 3.1%). Currently, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is about 76%, which is expected to increase this week.
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South Korea announced that it would postpone the implementation of the new virtual asset tax law to January 2025 to address the tax burden of individual investors and regulatory clarification issues. According to the new regulations, from 2025, the law will include income tax for residents, withholding tax for non-residents, and gift tax on virtual assets. The postponement mainly affects the income tax of residents and withholding tax for non-residents and foreign companies. The Hong Kong Securities and Exchange Commission warned the public to beware of seven entities including XTCQT and CEGBTEPRO suspected of engaging in virtual asset-related fraud. The total financing amount of the crypto market in June 2024 fell by about 53% compared with March 2024. According to Coingalss data, if BTC falls to around $50,000, CEX is expected to have $658 million in long orders liquidated, and if BTC rebounds to around $58,000, it is expected that $1.522 billion in short orders will be liquidated. The Financial Times of the United Kingdom said that if Trump is elected, it may lead to a rebound in BTC in the second half of the year. IBITCOINLFG said that billionaire MICHAELDELL, the founder of Dell, may buy a large amount of BTC. Brian Dixon, CEO of Mt.Gox creditor and Off the Chain Capital, said that many creditors have not yet received compensation and the repayment phase may last until October. Stephane Ouellette, CEO of FRNT Financial Inc., said that traders may have overreacted to the MtGox repayment event, and Germany may liquidate $2.3 billion worth of BTC, which poses a greater direct threat to the market, and BTC bulls are now salivating, hoping that this will be a great buying opportunity. 10x Research said that BTC has fallen 20% in the past month and 13% during the Asian trading session. Since BTC seems to be oversold in the short term, potential macroeconomic benefits are expected this week, so a counter-trend rebound may occur. In addition, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may approve the ETH ETF, which may trigger positive momentum in the short term. They do not believe that it is a significant buying opportunity in the medium term.
On Monday, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continued to hit new highs at the opening. The address marked as De has transferred out 1,900 BTC and 5,200 BTC respectively. Since June 19, De's address has transferred out nearly 20,000 BTC, and its pending sales have continued to decline. After hitting the bottom of $53,000, BTC rebounded to $58,000 and is currently around $56,000. According to Farsidle Investors data, the U.S. spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $143.1 million last Friday, the highest inflow level in at least two weeks. LinChen, head of Deribit, said that the BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of $237.8 million last week, and market sentiment remained sluggish. Pay attention to the opening of U.S. stocks on Monday. If it rises again, this wave of bottoming out may be over. Analyst Ash Crypto said that some factors will drive the crypto market to new highs, such as FTX's plan to distribute more than $16 billion to its creditors. August 16 is the deadline for FTX customers to vote, and Judge Dorsey will make a decision on the plan approval on October 7, which will occur in the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, which perfectly matches other positive factors such as interest rate cuts, the implementation of accounting rules of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, and the general election. ◇ $16 billion entered the cryptocurrency market and became the biggest catalyst for price increases. (More than a year ago, the market also experienced an FTX sell-off) ETF Store President Nate Geraci said that the spot ETH ETF S-1 revision is expected to be due tomorrow, and it is unclear how quickly the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will process it. The spot ETH ETF is more likely to be launched in the week of July 15. Stefan von Haenisch, director of OSL SG pte, said that most of the current news, such as the MtGox sell-off, is essentially bearish news. Cryptocurrency needs the Federal Reserve to make more dovish remarks on monetary policy. One or two interest rate cuts, coupled with the expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, are the two key factors that cryptocurrencies are really waiting for. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 index continued to hit new highs at the opening on Monday.
The US employment report released last Friday was seen by the market as further evidence that the economy is cooling. This Wednesday, Powell will give semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress, and this Thursday the US will release the inflation indicator CPI (previous value 3.3%, expected value 3.1%). If Powell is interpreted as dovish by the market when testifying in Congress, the CPI data released on Wednesday will strengthen the anti-inflation trend, and traders may even fully price in a full rate cut as early as September, and risk assets including stock indexes, gold prices, and currency markets will be supported. According to a media survey, 10 of the 12 Wall Street analysts expect gold prices to rise this week, 1 expects sideways trading, and 1 is bearish. The question that people are most concerned about is, is the decline over? In terms of time, the old man tends to end the decline in July or August, and the possibility of July is higher, because the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September (the current probability of a rate cut is 76%). If the September rate cut is priced at 100%, then the market needs to make up for this expectation in advance. After digesting the sell-off wash of the historical high in the first half of the year, it is the next stage of the bull market, interest rate cuts. During the interest rate cut phase, people have the least doubts about the bull market, because people usually regard it as the Fed's loosening of liquidity, promoting the rise/bubble of risky assets. #BTC下跌分析 #美国6月非农数据高于预期 #德国政府转移比特币
