How is a trend of a certain level completed? There are four stages in total, and the trend ends after the four stages are completed.

Step 1: The trend must be perfect. This trend must form the center of this level, that is, the trend must be perfect. The so-called perfection is that the center of this level is formed after the sub-level trend is completed.

Step 2: No trend, no divergence. After the formation of the big center of this level, a trend must be formed. Without a trend, there is no divergence.

Step 3: Divergence. Distinguish between consolidation divergence and trend divergence. Divergence is formed by trend, and the consolidation structure may not be completed, so you must wait until the trend appears.

Step 4: Range set. The trend of this level is the divergence segment or oscillation segment of the high-level trend. Under the support of the high level, this level ends. In addition, if it is not a range set or a high-level oscillation segment, the trend of this level is a second-level buying and selling point, that is, there is a high-level first-level buying and selling point in front, such as this turning point.

The above four stages are indispensable, otherwise the operation will be uncertain. As for the central oscillation, it is also operated on the premise of knowing clearly whether the current trend is rising or falling. The difficulty lies in the turning point of the trend. If you treat the turning point as a oscillation section, you will either miss the opportunity or be thrown down. If you follow the above four steps, you can greatly improve the accuracy.

After the ETF is approved, Bitcoin will be priced in US dollars and officially become a US dollar-denominated asset. The US dollar index is directly related to the trend of Bitcoin, that is, when the US dollar index rises, Bitcoin will fall, and vice versa. When Bitcoin rises or falls, we must refer to the index trend. Now the 4-hour rise of the index has not ended, Bitcoin will continue to fall in the 4-hour period, but the extent of the decline is uncertain.

#bome is very strong, and doesn't care how the big cake moves. Currently, BOME is in a 15-minute divergence segment.

Let me ask you a question: If the price of the big cake keeps falling, will the farmers who hold the copycat be trapped, or even locked up? In other words, will the farmers support the bottom against the trend?

Many people are bullish based on how much the ETF has bought or sold. This is a serious mistake. As the world's manager, multinational capital such as BlackRock does not even count ETF as a jelly bean on its menu. ETF is just a reason for capital to operate the big pie in compliance. BlackRock does not care about the management fees. What does the selling and buying of retail investors have to do with BlackRock? !

The fundamentals of the big pie have no direct relationship with ETFs. The fundamentals of the big pie are one of the battlefields in the international financial war! So don't consider the purchase cost of the ETF, or even the cost of the miners, as the fundamentals. Multinational capital has gone to great lengths to make ETFs compliant. Don't really think it is to earn management fees? !

The two supports of the big cake, the signs of 8-hour consolidation divergence, and the half-year line on the 12-hour line, the current 15-minute center is grinding this half-year line.

Note: This wave of falling market may be super large, and the profit and loss ratio is very high. So open a short position at the third perfect position of the current center (see the 15-minute line), and set the perfect position, that is, the opening position, as the stop loss position. Of course, in order to avoid the judgment of the third perfect position of the center in advance, the stop loss can be raised.

Every time you encounter a new center later, add positions at the perfect position. However, the premise of this operation is that the above two supports are not supported. If they are supported, the daily line will continue to fluctuate. If they are not held, there will be no resistance when they come down. All the way down is the 1/4 line of 49k, and the 1/8 line around 27k, completing the halving before the big bull market to form a super-large center at the monthly level!

Today is the last day of April. The K of this month has been pulled down again. The monthly line fell below 59112, and the monthly line top pattern was formed. What is more dangerous is that the monthly MACD column shortened again! If it cannot be pulled up in May, that is, if the MACD column does not continue to increase, it is likely to be a desperate move. If the 38th parallel is lost, then we will face the 1/4 line. The position of this line in May is 49163
that is, 1163+1/4*1500*128=49163

The big cake is not strong, and it has reached a reverse trend again!

The bulls finally got their act together! The 4-hour rally continues!

From the market, the bulls want to leave the shock zone urgently, but the bears slap them down. The bears are slightly better at present, but only slightly better, because the bulls are still stronger, and the bears need to work harder to smash down. The short-term continues to linger at 64k. If the area around 64k cannot be pulled up, be careful of turning into an intermediate callback, and the 38 line mentioned above will be completely lost. The result will be in the next two days, maybe today.

Tonight is a showdown between longs and shorts! The volatility is increasing! Watch the show!

The divergence between the big pie and the copycat is too obvious. The big pie rebounded a little, and the copycat rebounded ten points. It feels like the copycat is so frustrated that it can't stand it anymore and is about to explode. What is this signal?

The current trend was blocked and fluctuated for two months at the 3/8 line of circular motion mentioned above. This line is also the position where the bull market ended in 2021. The first time it encountered this line in 2021, Bitcoin pulled back 50%. It failed to hit this line again, ending the bull market. The current trend encountered this line again.

In addition to the strong pressure of 3/8, another strong pressure is that the monthly consolidation divergence section has not been broken. If the divergence is established, the adjustment will be super large, and it will be a large correction of at least another 50% drop in the intermediate level. Before each halving, there will be a large correction in the third section of the large center. Whether this year's halving will be a sword-seeking sword in the third section of the center is still unknown.

The sword-seeking sword in the third section of the center, the correction in 2021 was to the 1/4 line position. If it is corrected this time, it may also return to the 1/4 line position, near 49,000. Can the sword be sought?

From the circular motion, it is obvious that Bitcoin needs to break through and stand firm at $100,000 (that is, the 1/2 position) to start a technically unresistance bull market.

Are you looking for a sword on a boat? Does a super-large center always appear before the halving? Must there be a similar experience this year? Must the pie be cut in half? I hope I am just letting my imagination run wild and worrying about nothing!

In this case, don't rush to buy the dip, so what if you make less money? ! The monthly line of Big Pie is not going well. 59,000 is a critical position. If this point is not quickly pulled back after falling, a larger level of correction will be formed. 59,000 is the bottom of the monthly line. Looking at the divergence pattern of macd on the monthly line, it is a bit scary! To say something that may be alarmist, if Big Pie's decline does not stop, if the 4-hour divergence is not established, the mid-term correction bear market will begin. Hurry up and pull it up, Brother Bing, the copycat was hard last night, why are you scared!

Bitcoin hit a new low last night, but many copycats did not. The subsequent rebound strength of copycats was far ahead of Bitcoin. This signal has a bit of a "rebellion" meaning. Bitcoin is in a divergence phase in the 4-hour period, and it does not mean to be completed. Be careful of copycats' fraud!

This chart shows the mining cost of each bitcoin for bitcoin miners. It can be seen that although bitcoin has risen from 15k, miners did not start to make a profit until the ETF was passed, which means that the price of bitcoin has doubled before. Miners are in the process of recovering their investment. How did miners survive this situation for more than half a year? Finally, they have recovered their investment. Should they cash out some funds for turnover?

The current situation is that miners are basically not profitable. After a week, the computing power will increase, the reward will be halved, and the cost will double directly. Now the cost of each bitcoin is around 50k, and the cost will be 100k after a week, but the price is still 60k.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is now 60% off, a bargain!

If you buy spot A with 1,000 yuan and borrow 500 yuan to buy more, the leverage is 1.5 times, which means 1/1.5=0.66, that is, a 66% drop will cause a liquidation. Do you think this configuration is safe? Is the leverage very low?

Unsafe! One of the positions was only 18% away from 66% yesterday, which is really exciting!

The account has been chopped off!

The third time returning to the 4-hour annual support line (the lower extension of the triangle center), can it hold up this time?