Convex Finance protocol is based on Curve Finance ($CRV) and complements it by allowing liquidity providers to earn higher rewards. The Convex Finance protocol has its own native token, $CVX. Following the large liquidation of the CRV loan on Aave ($AAVE), the CRV supply in the market increased, and many CRV holders converted their CRV tokens into veCRV and earned higher yields on the Convex protocol. $CVX experienced an over 100% surge last Sunday, indicating strong market demand for this token.The recent launchpool project io.net ($IO) is a leading cryptocurrency project that focuses on the DePin aspect. In the backdrop of AI and GPU hype, io.net provides users with onchain access to global GPUs. It is not surprising that $IO is in high demand after GPU producer Nvidia surpassed Apple and Microsoft to become the highest market capitalization company.After the SEC confirmed that it had concluded its investigation into Ethereum 2.0 following the approval of the 19b-4 forms of ETH ETF applications, investors piled into Ripple ($XRP), hoping for an XRP ETF in the future. The strong market demand for $XRP pushed its price up 1.2% last week, while the majority of top-ranked cryptocurrencies saw a negative return.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement with the 8H chart.Despite the strength of the US equity market, the price of Bitcoin fell further. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both reached new all-time highs in recent days, with Nvidia surpassing Apple and Microsoft to become the US stock exchange's largest market capitalization stock. The market sentiment for risk assets is fairly bullish in the traditional finance world, but our desk sees a completely different story in the crypto market.After BTC fell below the upward trendline (the red line) mentioned in previous posts, bearish sentiment spread throughout the cryptocurrency market. Altcoins experienced a significant capital outflow. While BTC fell more than 3% in the last seven days, many altcoins, across various chains and categories, experienced a 20%-30% decline. The crypto market saw a boost in ETH and restaking projects after the SEC confirmed that they had closed the investigation on ETH 2.0 after passing the 19b-4 form of ETH ETF applications. However, the BTC price did not show a significant recovery. BTC is currently forming a falling wedge in the 8-hour chart. If it can break above the falling wedge (the blue lines) with large volumes, it may indicate that BTC is ready to recover the loss and have another test to the $73k resistance. If the breakout fails, we could see another two weeks of consolidation here, with BTC finding strong support at $61k (the red area).

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-06-13)In May, the US PPI fell 0.2% month on month, compared to an expected 0.1% increase and a 0.5% increase in April. The lower-than-expected PPI could lead to lower inflation, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September.US initial jobless claims reached a nine-month high of 242k, exceeding the estimated 225k and last week's 229k. The recent increase in initial jobless claims suggests that the tight labour market in the United States is easing.The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.1%, unchanged. According to the statement, the Bank of Japan may reduce its purchases of Japanese government bonds after the next monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled for the end of July. USD/JPY rose to 158.2 from 157.3 prior to the announcement. On Monday (24-06-17)The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the interest rate at 4.35%, unchanged. Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that high inflation was harming the economy and that lowering inflation was the top priority for the RBA. She stated that the RBA did not consider a rate cut case in this meeting, and the case for an interest hike was not increasing.On Tuesday (24-06-18)In May, the eurozone's CPI increased by 0.2% month over month, down from 0.6% in April. The annualized CPI growth rate in May was 2.6%, up from 2.4% in April. The core CPI growth rate increased by 2.9% on an annual basis, up from 2.7% in April.In May, US retail sales increased by 0.1% month on month, falling short of the expected 0.3% growth but improving on April's 0.1% decrease. Core retail sales fell 0.1% month over month in May, falling short of the expected 0.2% increase.In May, the UK CPI rose by only 0.3% month on month, falling short of the expected 0.4% increase. In May, the annualized CPI growth rate was 2.0%, which was lower than Apirl's figure of 2.3%. Later this week, we haveBank of England interest rate decision on Thursday

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, with optimism that the S1 form of ETH ETFs will be approved at the beginning of July, ETH restaking sections outperformed the market, and trading volume in the Liquid Staking zone increased by 51.1%.Last week, our desk noticed a surge in demand for Arweave ($AR), resulting in the largest trading volume increase among all tokens in the Storage zone.Last week, trading volume in the DeFi zone fell by 19.9% on Convert. While many tokens in this zone saw a volume drop, Convex Finance ($CVX) outperformed the market, with a significant volume increase as demand surged.As the Euro Cup continues, our desk has seen a surge in demand for fan tokens. The demand for Paris Saint-Germain Fan Token (PSG) has the highest volume increase in the Fan Token zone. 

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

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The token price of Highstreet ($HIGH ) has dropped significantly in the past week. $HIGH experienced a strong bull run after March 20. $HIGH 's price rose from $1.7 to a high of $9.8 in less than three months before falling 70% to $2.8 in just five days. Highstreet developers investigated the recent sharp drop and concluded that it was caused by a malicious attack that resulted in the sale of 20 million tokens.The Filecoin Network ($FIL ), which was launched in 2017, aims to incentivize a global network of computer operators to provide file-sharing and storage services. The recent discussions about DePIN innovation drew the market's attention to this project, as information storage is a critical component in DePIN innovation. The high demand for $FIL resulted in an 11% increase in 5 hours last Friday. However, the gain was quickly reversed following a sell-off. The Injective ($INJ ) price has risen by more than 22% in the last 24 hours, because of lower-than-expected US CPI inflation and the burning of more than 6 million INJ tokens through the burn auction. The price's strong performance drew a lot of interest, and our desk saw the trading volume of $INJ double on Convert last week.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the last four months.The price of Bitcoin fell sharply last Friday in response to the unexpectedly strong nonfarm payroll change in the United States. The strong nonfarm payrolls suggest that the Federal Reserve has no reason to cut interest rates in such a strong labour market. The higher-than-expected average hourly earnings growth puts more pressure on the production side, implying sticky inflation due to higher labour costs.BTC found support at $69,000, the previous cycle high. Over the weekend, liquidity decreased, and Bitcoin recovered to $70k. This week, we have CPI data and the FOMC announcement on Wednesday. On Tuesday, our desk saw some risk offloading, which caused a sell-off on altcoins. BTC fell below the $69k support level and sold off to $66k before demand came in. Such risk-averse behaviour could be a hedging strategy to avoid a possible high CPI reading and a hawkish Fed on Wednesday.The US CPI reading came in lower than expected, causing the US dollar to fall and risk assets to rise. BTC soared more than 2% following the news, trading above the $69k support level in the US early session. However, it lost all of its gains following the FOMC press conference, as Fed Chair Powell did not provide any specific information on a potential rate cut and emphasised that the Federal Reserve was in a good position to wait for more clarity on a disinflation trend rather than making decisions based on a single piece of good data.Without another catalyst in the near term, our desk believes the Bitcoin price will remain below $71k to $73k (the green bar on the chart). In the longer term, we believe Bitcoin's upward trend will continue, with the price breaking above the green bar and reaching $85k before the US presidential election.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-06-06)The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the first time in five years, setting the rate at 3.75%. According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, this rate cut will most likely mark the beginning of rate-cutting progress. She did, however, emphasise that future rate cuts will be contingent on inflationary pressures. The announcement boosted the European stock market. US initial jobless claims increased to 229k from 221k last week, exceeding the estimated 220k. The rise in initial jobless claims suggests that the tightening situation in the US labour market is improving.Last Friday (24-06-07)US nonfarm payrolls increased by 272k in May, far exceeding the expected 182k and April's 165k. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month on month. The growth rate exceeded the estimated 0.3% and April's 0.2%. The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll and faster growth in average hourly earnings indicate a strong US labour market, with inflation pressure remaining high as labour costs continue to rise.However, the US unemployment rate increased to 4.0%, up from 3.9% last month. The strong hourly earnings growth boosted the US dollar index (DXY) to 105, while all risk assets experienced some selloff pressure as the market anticipated a more hawkish Federal Reserve rate cut decision later this year.On Wednesday (24-06-12)The US CPI showed  signs of softening in May. The monthly CPI was unchanged, lower than the estimated 0.1% and 0.3% in April. The annualised CPI increase is 3.3%, lower than the estimated 3.4% and April's 3.4%. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, with a monthly change of 0.2% and an annualised change of 3.4%. The US dollar fell sharply from 105.03 to 104.5, while Bitcoin rose from $68,005 to $69,500 following the news.The Federal Reserve announced that the interest rate will remain at 5.50%, unchanged. The dot plot indicates that FOMC members expect only one rate cut this year, not three as shown in March. Chair Powell emphasised that the Federal Reserve needs more data to show a downward trend in inflation before lowering rates. The Fed would wait a few months to see if the trend of cooling inflation continues before considering a looser policy.The US dollar recovered its losses following the cooling CPI news, while Bitcoin lost all of its gains and traded below $68,000 before the US market closed.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, the broader market experienced a selloff, with Bitcoin failing to break through the $72k mark. Our Convert found that the Storage zone had the greatest volume increase.Last week, our desk noticed a high demand for Filecoin ($FIL ), which became the primary driver of the volume change in the Storage zone.Last week, trading volume in the Launchpad zone increased by 9.7% on Convert. Injective ($INJ ) and Fetch.ai ($FET) are the two tokens driving volume growth in this zone.During the same period, the volume in the Layer 1/ Layer 2 zone decreased by 16.8%. Following the strong demand for ETH the week before, our desk observed a retracement in demand for ETH in the last seven days, which is the primary reason for the volume decline in this zone.

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

My Neighbor Alice ($ALICE) gained 72.5% last week, with an 81x volume increase on Convert. The price increase was driven by rising interest from traders. Large-size trades on the order book became more risky due to the volatile price change and a spike in volume. Investors and traders use our Convert and OTC desk for large-size trades to reduce market impact. Trading on Convert not only reduces the trader's intention to other market participants, but it also reduces market risk by securing the price for the entire order in one trade.Linear ($LINA ) is a decentralised delta-one asset protocol that can instantly generate synthetic assets with limitless liquidity. The project enables cryptocurrency users to access traditional assets such as commodities, forex, market indices, and other thematic sectors by facilitating the creation of "Liquids" — Linear's synthetic asset tokens. The recent increase in trading demand on LINA was caused by a volatile price change on the LINA price due to large market purchases.In less than two months, Notcoin, a play-to-earn game and token that is integrated as a Telegram Mini App, has attracted over 30 million Telegram users, ushering in a new wave of mainstream cryptocurrency adoption. The large user base and recent hype surrounding GameFi fueled $NOT 's price increase. The price of $NOT increased 400% in less than 8 days before falling 20% after some profit-taking. 

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the last three months.After falling to $58k due to rising geopolitical tensions, the Bitcoin price recovered and found support in the red area around the $60/61k range. It is currently on an upward trend (the red trend line) and has encountered strong resistance (the green zone). The first attempt to test the resistance zone in May was led by a 20% increase in Ethereum, which was fueled by the potential approval of ETH spot ETFs. After the SEC approved the 19b-4 applications for ETH ETFs, we saw a "sell the news" reaction in the ETH price, and the BTC price fell in tandem.In early June, BTC attempted another test of the resistance zone, this time with BNB as the primary driver. BNB's price increased by 20% in two days, from $596 to $716, setting a new all-time high. As BNB reached a new all-time high, our team noticed that investors and traders were converting their BNB holdings to BTC for profit.Furthermore, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen consistent inflows over the last few weeks. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States experienced their second-best-ever joint net inflow day on June 4, totalling $886.6 million. On the macro level, recent data on the US labour market indicate that the imbalance is continuing to ease. The PCE price index, released last Friday, showed that prices remained stable in April, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year.With strong inflows from the traditional finance via ETFs, bullish market rotations within the large market cap coins ($ETH and $BNB), and a less tightening liquidity backdrop, our desk anticipates that the 3-month consolidation of the BTC price will come to an end. Once the BTC price clears the resistance level between $71k and $74k, we expect it to be volatile and quickly reach the $85k level.
Options Market

The above chart shows the at-the-money implied volatility of BTC options with different tenors in the last two weeks.After the SEC approved 19b-4 applications for ETH spot ETFs two weeks ago, the IVs of BTC options reversed. The front-end IV was trading in the sub-40 range, which we had seen in November/December 2023 and late January/early February 2024.The BTC price has gradually increased over the last two periods, followed by a rally. Historically, front-end BTC IVs have remained in a higher range (50% - 60%) during bull markets. When the front-end IV remains below 50% for an extended period of time, the BTC price is likely to become volatile.That being said, if the IVs of the front-end BTC options remain in the current range or even fall lower, we should expect something big to happen soon and prepare for the upcoming volatile move.

Macro at a glance 
Last Wednesday (24-05-29)The German CPI growth rate was 0.1% in May, lower than the estimated 0.2% and 0.5% in April. The annualized CPI growth rate was 2.4%, up from 2.2% in April.Last Thursday (24-05-30)The US GDP growth rate was 1.3% in the first quarter, lower than the estimated 1.6% and 3.4% growth rates in Q4 2023. The lower-than-expected GDP growth rate indicates a cooling US economy and increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year.US initial jobless claims were 219k, slightly higher than the estimated 218k. The increase in jobless claims suggests that the imbalance in the US labor market is easing.Last Friday (24-05-31)The Eurozone CPI growth rate was 0.2% in May, down from 0.6% in April. The annualised growth rate of the CPI is 2.6%, which is higher than the expected 2.5%. The market anticipates that the slight increase in CPI in May will not change the ECB's view on its first rate cut at the upcoming June meeting.The US PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in April, with an annualised rate of 2.7%. Both numbers are consistent with market expectations. However, the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased only 0.2% month on month, compared to the expected 0.3%.On Tuesday (24-06-04)US job openings fell from 8.355 million in March to 8.059 million in April, a surprising decrease from the expected 8.370 million figure, indicating that US labour market imbalances continue to ease.On Wednesday (24-06-05)In May, US ADP nonfarm employment increased by 152k, falling short of the estimated 173k and April's 188k, also signalling that the US labour market imbalance is easing.The Bank of Canada announced its first rate cut after 2020 at its June meeting. The Bank of Canada cut its interest rate from 5.00% to 4.75%, making it the first central bank in G7 countries to reduce interest rates. The US equity market closed with gains, with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index both reaching all-time highs. Nvidia is the primary driver of this rally, as it reached $1,200 and its market capitalization surpassed $3 trillion.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, our Convert trading volume increased significantly, with the Gaming zone experiencing the greatest percentage increase.Last week, My Neighbor Alice ($ALICE) and Notcoin ($NOT ) performed extremely well, with surging volumes. These two tokens accounted for a significant portion of the volume increase in the Gaming zone.Last week, the Launchpool zone saw a 134.0% increase in trading volume on Convert. Notcoin ($NOT ) is the main driver of volume growth in this zone.During the same period, the volume in the Monitoring zone increased by 102.4%. JasmyCoin ($JASMY) and Linear ($LINA ) are the two main drivers of the high trade demand.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 
Email: trading@binance.com for more information.
Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

Audius crypto, a Web 3 equivalent to music streaming platforms like SoundCloud and Spotify, saw its native token, $AUDIO , soar 27.4% last week with a 21x volume increase on Convert. Audius was named one of the top 14 music tech startups to watch by Business Insider, which boosted the token's value and drove up demand.BounceBit ($BB ), the first project launched in the Megadrop zone, had a tremendous gain of 92.4% last week, with the trading volume jumping 381.0% on Convert. BounceBit is a leading project in the CeDeFi infrastructure space, providing institutional-grade yield products, restaking use cases, and CeDeFi as a service to make high-yield opportunities available to all. The strong performance came after the project team announced a roadmap to democratise high-yield Bitcoin investing by combining centralised and decentralised finance.Last Thursday afternoon, the SEC approved the 19b-4 form for Ethereum spot ETFs, clearing the way for ETH spot ETF approval. Uniswap ($UNI) saw a surge in trading volume on its decentralised platform, which accounts for 48.9% of total DEX volume. Moreover, the Uniswap V4 introduction by the project team fueled the demand for this governance token.Meme coins continue to play an important role in the market, with ConstitutionDAO ($PEOPLE) and Pepe ($PEPE) outperforming and gaining market attention. Last week, $PEPE experienced double-digit trading volume growth on Convert, while $PEOPLE saw triple-digit trading volume growth.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the ETH price movement in the last three months.Last Thursday, the US SEC finally approved the 19b-4 forms for Ethereum spot ETF applicants, paving the way for the final approval of ETH spot ETFs. ETF issuers must wait for the SEC to approve the S1 forms before listing their ETFs on the stock market for investors to purchase. Typically, it takes another one to two weeks.On Thursday, before the SEC website published the approval of 19b-4 forms, ETH price fluctuated, first rising to $3,950 before the US market opened, then rapidly falling below $3,500 at the US market close due to the lack of clarity of the SEC decision. The high volatility (over 10% change from top to bottom) was priced correctly in the options market, with near-tenor ETH options trading at more than 110% implied volatility. The implied volatility rapidly dropped to the normal range after the announcement was made.Following the SEC announcement, we saw some ETH sales during the Asia hours, and demand increased after the price reached the green bar shown in the chart. Demand came in consistently, pushing the price into the red bar, which represents a strong resistance area at the $4,000 level. We expect the resistance level to be broken with the announcement that the S1 forms have been approved by the SEC, and we could see another 10% room to run before the ETFs are available in the stock market.
Options Market

The above table shows the 25-delta skew of BTC and ETH options with different tenors.Last week, before the SEC approved the 19b-4 forms on ETH ETF applications, we saw a heavily skewed market behaviour towards puts on ETH near-tenor options, indicating that options traders were purchasing downside protection against the "sell the news" behaviour. This week, the 25-delta skew on ETH options of various tenors is all positive, indicating that options traders are optimistic about ETH's recent price movement, with longer-tenor options showing a stronger bullish sentiment.Meanwhile, sentiment on BTC options is less bullish, with only 0.44 readings for 7-day expiry. However, sentiment indicates more bullishness for longer-term options. According to the table above, the market is strongly bullish on both BTC and ETH over the next two months, with ETH outperforming. This observation supports our previous prediction that the market correction that began in March is coming to an end, and that BTC may reach a new all-time high this summer, paving the way for the start of the altcoin season.

Macro at a glance 
Last Wednesday (24-05-22)The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes revealed that it might take longer than previously thought to confidently achieve a sustainable inflation rate of 2%. Many participants expressed readiness to tighten policies further if the inflation risks developed to warrant such action. With the market wary of possible further delays in Federal interest rate cuts, U.S. equities closed in a slump, with the S&P and Nasdaq indexes down by 0.77% and 0.70%, respectively. Nonetheless, the crypto market performed better, largely due to robust demand for Ethereum before the potential approval by the SEC on ETH ETFs.Last Thursday (24-05-23)US initial jobless claims dropped to 215k last week from 223k the week before, better than the estimated 220k. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI for May was recorded at 50.9, surpassing the projected 50.0. Furthermore, the S&P Global U.S. Services PMI came in at 54.8, significantly exceeding the expected 51.2. This indicates that US business activities are expanding. Manufacturers reported an increase in prices across various inputs, suggesting potential growth in goods inflation in the coming months.Last Friday (24-05-24)The durable goods orders in the U.S. documented a growth rate of 0.7% month-on-month in April, surpassing the projected decrease of 0.9%.On Tuesday (24-05-28)U.S. consumer confidence climbed to 102.0 in May, marking a significant rebound from April's 97.5, and beating the expected 96.0. This robust consumer confidence implies potential increases in demand for goods and services, which could result in more persistent inflation.Later this week, we haveUS GDP in the first quarter of 2024The Eurozone's CPI reading for May, which could provide additional insight into the ECB's potential rate cut in June.The US PCE index in April, which will provide further insights into US inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, our trading volume on Convert increased significantly, with the Megadrop zone showing the greatest percentage increase.Last week, BounceBit ($BB ), the first project launched in the Megadrop zone, had a strong performance and attracted a lot of demand to trade this token. The trading volume surged 381.0% compared to its first-week trading volume.The Fan Token zone saw a 72.0% increase in trading volume on Convert last week. Santos FC Fan Token ($SANTOs) is the primary driver of volume growth in this zone.During the same time period, volume in the NFT zone increased by 36.3%. Audius ($AUDIO ) and Origin Protocol ($OGN) are the two main contributors to the high trade demand.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

Last week, our Convert Portal experienced a surge in trading demand for the meme coin ConstitutionDAO ($PEOPLE ). ConstitutionDAO was a crowdfunding campaign to purchase a first-edition copy of the United States Constitution. The $PEOPLE token represents a share of the ConstitutionDAO. Since the bid for the document failed, the PEOPLE token now represents a DAO movement of historical significance. In the most recent development, the Fantom Foundation has revealed more information about its new Layer-1 blockchain Sonic Network, which connects to Ethereum via Layer-2 bridge. This will enable Sonic to access a large number of users, liquidity, and other protocols. The Foundation will introduce $S tokens on Sonic network to match the supply of $FTM . Users will be able to exchange their $FTM tokens for $S tokens on a 1:1 basis. By connecting to Ethereum, the Sonic network ecosystem will gain the full benefits of a layer-1 blockchain while also providing native access to ETH.GALA Games, a play-to-earn blockchain platform, was hacked on Monday, and the hacker minted 5 billion GALA tokens to a private address. The hacker exchanged 600 million GALA for 5.913 ETH afterward. The $GALA price dropped over 22% in two hours due to a large dump on Uniswap. The price stabilised after the platform noticed the system compromise and froze the remaining 4.4 billion tokens in the hacker's wallet.PENDLE, a leading restaking project, saw significant trading demand in response to rumours of potential ETH ETF approval. $PENDLE, which has a high beta profile compared to ETH, was heavily bid on the market after ETH took off on Monday. Last week, the $PENDLE price rose by 60.7%, with the majority of the increase occurring on Monday.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the last three months.As we mentioned to our readers last week, our desk saw bullish sentiment on BTC following the cooler CPI data in the United States. Furthermore, the risk reversal on the options market indicates that the market's sentiment has shifted from bearish to neutral.Last Thursday, the United States Senate joined the House of Representatives in repealing the controversial Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) cryptocurrency policy known as Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121. SAB 121, issued by the agency in 2022, held that a company that holds a customer's cryptocurrencies must record them on its own balance sheet, which could have significant capital implications for banks that work with crypto clients.Furthermore, we saw a net inflow from US Bitcoin ETFs for six consecutive days beginning last Monday, when Bitcoin traded above the $61k key level. The strong inflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs demonstrated strong demand from investors seeking Bitcoin exposure.On Monday, the US SEC requested amended 19b-4 filings for spot Ethereum ETFs within a short timeframe, signalling an abrupt turn on potential ETH ETF approval. Following the news, Bloomberg analysts estimated a 75% chance of approval by the end of May, up from 25% a week earlier. The ETH price increased by more than 20% due to strong demand on the spot market, pushing the Bitcoin price above $71k, just inches away from the all-time high of $73,777 set in March.Because of the large gains on BTC and ETH in the last two days, our desk expects some consolidation here, as traders take profits. If the BTC price surges above the green zone above with high volume, we may see the next leg up for Bitcoin towards the $100k mark by the end of the year.
Options Market

The above chart shows the 25-delta skew of ETH options with different tenors.On Monday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission asked for amended 19b-4 filings for spot Ethereum ETFs within a short time frame. In response to the news, the ETH price chart showed a vertical k-line, indicating a strong bullish market with increased demand.The 25-delta skew for ETH options increased by more than ten points in response to the heavily bidding ETH spot price. This indicates that options traders were also rushing for ETH calls, either opening long or closing short positions, or both. The SEC's unexpected action on ETH spot ETFs boosted the implied volatility of ETH options. However, the risk reversal on ETH options retraced quickly following the initial move-up because of the increasing odds of a potential approval of ETH ETFs by the SEC. Currently, the risk reversal indicates a very negative skew on ETH options with short tenors, whereas options with longer tenors continue to show positive risk reversals. The negative risk reversal signal on ETH options with short tenors indicates that options traders would rather pay a higher premium for puts to cover the downside risk than buy calls for potential upside gains. The observation supports our forecast for the market to consolidate around the current level in the coming days, with some profit-taking.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-05-16)US initial jobless claims increased from 232k the previous week to 222k last week, exceeding the expected 219k. The US labour market is cooling, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.Last Friday (24-05-17)In April, Eurozone CPI growth was 2.4% year on year, aligning with the rate seen in March. The monthly CPI growth rate decreased from 0.8% in March to 0.6% in April. The annualised core CPI growth rate decreased from 2.9% in March to 2.7% in April. The Eurozone's inflation rate is around the European Central Bank's target rate of 2% and trending lower, indicating a high likelihood of the ECB's first rate cut in June.On Tuesday (24-05-21)According to Statics Canada's CPI data, prices rose 0.5% monthly and 2.7% annually, as expected by economists. The cooler CPI data comes after March's 0.6% MoM and 2.9% YoY readings. The lower inflation rate makes it more likely that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates for the first time this cycle in June.Later this week, we haveThe April CPI readings in the UK this WednesdayThe FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released this Wednesday

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, our trading volume on Convert increased significantly, with the Monitoring zone showing the greatest percentage increase.Last week, the two tokens with the highest trading demand were Unifi Protocol DAO ($UNFI) and Cream ($CREAM), which contributed significantly to the Monitoring zone's volume increase of 66.0%.The Metaverse zone saw a 35.6% increase in trading volume on Convert last week. FLOKI ($FLOKI) is the primary driver of volume growth in this zone.During the same time period, volume in the gaming zone increased by 30.9%. Following the hack news, our desk observed a surge in trading demand for GALA ($GALA ).

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

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This week, the top 5 tokens of interest are all from the DeFi zone, with UMA and TRB focusing on Oracle space and RUNE and FRONT focusing on DeFi infrastructure space.The price of Tellor Tributes ($TRB ) soared over $100 the week before, from $43 to $145 in six days, while the upward momentum has faded away and it is trading above the $110 level. After the huge pump on Tellor Tributes, our desk observed the strong capital inflow into another Oracle project UMA ($UMA ). UMA saw a significant volume uptick last week, and the price soared over 50% from $3.10 to the highest $4.63 before giving up part of the gain and now trading at $3.67.BENQI ($QI) is a decentralised non-custodial liquidity market protocol, built on Avalanche. The protocol enables users to effortlessly lend, borrow, and earn interest with their digital assets. Last week, the market saw strong demand for BENQI in the US session, but the price retraced back in Asia hours.ThorChain ($RUNE ) is a decentralised liquidity network with an interoperable blockchain that allows cross-chain token swaps in a non-custodial manner. Our desk saw strong demand for cross-chain projects in the last few weeks.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement from the beginning of March.As previously discussed, the 350-Day Moving Average serves as a strong support level, as does the $60k/61k range. After the price rebounded to $65k from its recent low of $56.4k, our desk noticed that strong demand in the $60k/61k range had returned. With a positive inflow from US BTC spot ETFs last week, BTC price consolidated above the $61k level and traded within the descending triangle formed by the downward trendline and the $61k support level. On Wednesday, US CPI readings were in line with market expectations, easing market concerns that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates this year. The market went into full risk-on mode, and the broader crypto market rose during the US session. Bitcoin soared 7.5% on the bullish sentiment, trading above $66,000 before the Asia market open. The breakout of the downward channel, as shown in the chart above, suggests that Bitcoin's bullish momentum has returned. As long as the Bitcoin price remains above the downward channel, it may lead to the next leg up in the coming months.The macroeconomic outlook also supports the bullish trend. As discussed in our Macro at a Glance section, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have paved the way for rate cuts this year, which could occur as early as next month. In addition, beginning June 1, the Federal Reserve will reduce its quantitative tightening program on Treasury runoff from $60 billion to $25 billion per month. The improved liquidity on the global market would fuel the Bitcoin bullish trend and drive the BTC price to a new all-time high.

Options Market

The above chart shows the 25-delta skew of BTC options with different tenors.After the US CPI data was released on Wednesday, our desk noticed an upward trend in the 25-delta skew of BTC options of various tenors. The aggressive move of short-term options bypassing the zero level suggests that market sentiment has shifted from bearish (25-delta skew below -5) to neutral (25-delta skew above 0). The 25-delta skew for long-term options (180-day expiry) increased and is now greater than 5. It suggests that institutional investors remain bullish on the BTC price in the long run, as the 25-delta call premium is significantly higher than the 25-delta put premium. If the skew of BTC options remains above the 0 line across all tenors in the coming week, it will indicate that the bearish trend has ended and that the BTC price may soon begin to rise again.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-05-09)The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 5.25%, unchanged. Headline inflation in the UK has since fallen, and the Bank of England expects it to slow to around its 2% target in April, owing primarily to falling energy prices. Governor Andrew Bailey stated that there may be more reductions than investors anticipate. US initial jobless claims increased from 209k the week before to 231k last week, the highest level in eight months, signalling a cooling US labour market and fuelling expectations for rate cuts later this year.On Monday (24-05-13)In April, the CPI in Germany increased by 0.5% month on month, an uptick from the 0.4% growth seen in March, while annualised CPI growth rate remained at 2.2% from March. The CPI data in Germany indicated that the Eurozone is far better positioned than the US to control inflation, and the cooling inflation data supports the European Central Bank's anticipated rate cut decision, which could come as early as next month.On Tuesday (24-05-14)The US PPI is expected to grow by 0.5% month on month in April, higher than the estimated 0.3% and -0.1% (revised) in March. Core PPI is also expected to grow at a 0.5% rate, up from an estimated 0.2% and -0.1% (revisioned) in March. The hot PPI numbers were primarily due to a lower revision of March data. Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that he expects inflation to continue to fall but is less confident in the disinflation outlook than he had previously been. The market did not interpret his comment as a potential rate hike, with US 10-year Treasury note yields falling to 4.451% afterward.On Wednesday (24-05-15)April's US CPI data met expectations. The annualised CPI growth rate was 3.4%, down from 3.5% in March, while the core CPI growth rate was 3.6%, a decrease from 3.8% in March. The market sees signs of encouragement by the ease of March's unexpected inflation rebound, with all three US equity indices closing near all-time highs. Bitcoin rose more than 7% in the US session, trading above the $66,000 level. The US dollar index closed lower at 104.283. 

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, Convert's trading volume saw a large increase in the Fan Token zone and Liquid Staking zone.The two tokens with the highest trading demand last week were AS Roma Fan Token ($ASR) and Manchester City Fan Token ($CITY), which contributed significantly to the Fan Token zone's 102.5% volume increase.The Liquid Staking zone experienced a 31.2% increase in trading volume on Convert last week. Benqi ($QI) is the primary contributor to the volume growth.During the same period, volume in the Infrastructure zone dropped by 7.8%. The decrease is largely due to faded trading demand for Wormhole ($W).

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

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Render's ($RNDR ) price has risen 44.1% in the last seven days, owing to excitement about a new launchpad called the Long Dragon on its ecosystem. The Long Dragon launchpad will thoroughly vet projects, including purchasing a portion of their funding round. Optimism ($OP), a layer-2 Ethereum scaling solution, appears on our weekly coins of interest list twice in a row. Following the announcement of the a16z purchase last week, the market is seeing strong demand for this token.Cosmos Hub ($ATOM ) is a constantly expanding ecosystem of interoperable and sovereign blockchain apps and services designed for a decentralised future. The recent strong demand for cross-chain projects has boosted market demand for ATOM.Chainlink ($LINK ), a blockchain oracle data provider, has recently experienced high market demand, coinciding with the Real World Asset (RWA) innovation. On May 7, Chainlink Labs announced that RD Technologies had integrated Chainlink CCIP and Proof of Reserve to power its Hong Kong dollar stablecoin.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the last two months.As we discussed last week, the 350 moving average on the 8H chart above provides strong support in the $56k/57k range. The strong rebound sent Bitcoin's price up more than 15% in five days, from $56,550 to $65,500. However, the BTC price faced strong selling pressure above $65k, retested the downward trend line several times, and made a lower low in the lower timeframe.The downward trend line is currently acting as support, but market momentum is trending downward. If the Bitcoin price falls back into the downward channel, it may retest the 60k strong demand zone and even the moving average at $58k.In the last two Bitcoin halvings, in 2016 and 2020, the BTC price traded sideways for 2 to 3 months before surpassing the pre-halving high. If the pattern holds, the Bitcoin price will most likely fluctuate between $56k and $73k in the next few months.
Options Market

The above table shows the at-the-money implied volatility of BTC and ETH options.Following the halving in April and the FOMC meeting last Wednesday, the IVs of BTC and ETH options fell from their previous highs. The IV of BTC options with a short tenor (7-day expiry) has fallen below 50% in less than a month, having peaked at 83% on April 13.In contrast to BTC options, IVs of ETH options retraced significantly less. The IV for ETH options with a 7-day expiry is now 56%, while the IV for a 60-day expiry is 59.34%. The high IVs on ETH options could be attributed to the SEC's uncertainty regarding the ETH spot ETF approval process.Based on our observations, the implied volatility gaps between BTC and ETH options with the same tenor have widened in recent weeks. Such observations support our view that the BTC price will trade sideways this summer, while altcoins will be more volatile. It could signal the start of the long-awaited altcoin season.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-05-02)US initial jobless claims were 208k, the same as the previous week. After the FOMC meeting yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that a significant increase in the US unemployment rate is required for the Fed to consider cutting interest rates. Analysts predict the Fed will postpone its first rate cut from June to September, citing persistent inflation and a tight labour market.Last Friday (24-05-03)The US nonfarm payroll increased by 175k in April, much lower than the expected 238k and the previous month's 315k. The US unemployment rate increased to 3.9% in April from 3.8% in March. Average hourly earnings growth slowed from 4.1% in March to 3.9% year on year in April. The data suggests that the US labour market is cooling, but it is probably too early to expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates before September, given that the labour market remains relatively tight. On Monday (24-05-06)The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its benchmark rate at 4.35%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said she hoped no interest rate hikes were required but did not rule out the possibility if inflation remained stubbornly high.Later this week, we haveBank of England interest rate decision this Thursday.Canada’s April unemployment rate this Friday

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, Convert's trading volume increased, with POW, Infrastructure, and AI zones seeing double-digit volume growth.Tellor Tributes ($TRB) and DigiByte ($DGB) have made the most significant contributions to the POW zone's 13.1% volume increase over the last week.The Infrastructure zone experienced a 13.1% increase in trading volume on Convert. Tellor Tributes ($TRB) and Render ($RNDR ) are the primary contributors to volume growth.During the same period, volume in the AI zone increased by 13.0%. This double-digit growth is largely due to increased trading demand for Worldcoin ($WLD).

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 
Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

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Wormhole ($W) is the native token of the Wormhole platform, a multi-chain protocol that enables the transfer of assets and data between blockchains. Wormhole ($W)'s price increased by 19.9% last week due to high demand for cross-chain assets.Ether.fi ($ETHFI) saw strong demand on Saturday, coinciding with the ETH strong rebound. ETHFI's price increased by more than 45% in 36 hours over the weekend. However, the majority of the gains were reversed after the Asian market opened on Monday.Arweave ($AR ) is a decentralised storage network that focuses on storing data indefinitely. It functions as a collectively owned hard drive that hosts the "permaweb" - a permanent, decentralised web. It also ensures data integrity and accessibility for future generations, ushering in a paradigm shift in digital preservation. The AR price fell over 18% when BTC broke below $60k on Wednesday, and it has returned -16.7% in the last seven days.Optimism ($OP ), a layer-2 Ethereum scaling solution, has recently seen strong demand, rising by more than 9% in the last 24 hours. According to a report published on Tuesday by Unchained crypto, A16z, one of the largest cryptocurrency venture capital funds, purchased $90 million in OP tokens. The VC firm's investment has a two-year vesting period, according to sources.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the last two months.As we discussed in previous posts, the $60k - $61k range was a strong demand zone that was tested several times after the BTC price traded above it. However, following recent sell-offs due to geopolitical conflicts, buying power in that range dwindled, and BTC fell below this level.As stated in our April 17 report, if BTC falls below the $60k/61k support range, the next strong support range will be $56k/57k. It is also the 350-day moving average. This moving average served as a solid support level during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. BTC price has formed a bear flag since April, and the upper level has been tested several times and rejected. The $56k/57k support level is also around the lower trendline. If BTC recovers from here, this does not mean that the price will reverse and return to an all-time high. Unless the BTC price breaks above the downward channel, we believe the BTC momentum will continue to trade within the downward channel.If the BTC price falls below the downward channel, the next strong support level will be the $51k/52k range, as shown in the chart. 

Options Market

The above table shows the 25-delta skew of BTC and ETH options.As shown in the table above, both BTC and ETH options have extremely negative skews for short and intermediate tenors. The negative skew indicates that options traders are more likely to buy puts rather than calls. The most recent one with such negative skews occurred on April 16, when the Middle East's geopolitical conflicts escalated. BTC recovered the majority of its losses over the next few days, but then continued to decline.This time, our desk noticed a more significant skew shift to the negative side than on April 16. One of the reasons could be the FOMC meeting held this Wednesday. Although the market expected the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, it is more important to know whether the Fed will raise interest rates again given the sticky inflation backdrop. Following the FOMC meeting today, Fed Chairman Powell indicated that no interest rate hike is being considered, but he did not provide any indication of when the interest rate cut will occur. The slowdown in the pace of balance-sheet reduction benefited the market, but the postponed rate-cut action cast a cloud over investors' heads.Our desk believes that the negatively skewed BTC and ETH options will move back towards the zero line in the next few days, but they may remain negative for an extended period if the downward momentum on the BTC price continues.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-04-25)The US GDP growth rate was 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, lower than the expected 2.5%. The lower-than-expected GDP growth rate raised market concerns about the potential failure of the Federal Reserve's proposed soft landing.US initial jobless claims fell further last week, from 212k to 207k, indicating that the US labour market remains tight.US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that US economic growth was likely stronger than the weaker-than-expected market data, and inflation continued to rise despite the Q1 flare-up.The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.1%, unchanged, and continued its bond purchase. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that if data confirms the BOJ's price view, it will raise interest rates, but he did not give clues on when the rate hike will start.Last Friday (24-04-26)The US PCE price index rose 2.7% year on year in March, exceeding the estimated 2.6% and February's 2.5%. The core PCE price index rose 2.8% on an annual basis in March, exceeding the expected 2.6% and remaining consistent with February's 2.8%. The higher-than-expected PCE price index demonstrated that inflation is stickier than the market expected, potentially postponing the Federal Reserve's rate-cut decision timeline.On Tuesday (24-04-30)In April, the Eurozone's CPI growth rate was 2.4% year on year, which was consistent with economist forecasts. The core CPI growth rate was 2.7%, slightly higher than the expected 2.6% but lower than March's 2.9%. Unlike the data in the United States, the Eurozone's CPI continued to fall, drawing closer to the ECB's 2% inflation target. According to the data, the ECB is more likely to cut interest rates for the first time this cycle at its June meeting. In April, US CB consumer confidence was 97.0, significantly lower than the estimated 104.0 and March's 103.1. Worse-than-expected consumer confidence suggests that consumer spending may slow in April, easing upward inflation pressure.On Wednesday (24-05-01)The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate at 5.50%, unchanged. The FOMC statement cited a lack of progress toward the Committee's 2% inflation target. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will reduce its balance-sheet reduction from $65 billion to $25 billion, beginning in June. According to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, raising interest rates is unlikely to be the central bank's next step. The dovish comment boosted all three indices by more than 1%, with the BTC rising from $57.4k to $59.3k. However, all gains were reversed before the US session ended. When the US market closed, Bitcoin was trading at $57,000.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, the Monitoring zone saw a 3.4% increase in trading volume, while the Fan token zone experienced an 8.2% decrease on Convert.Over the last seven days, Loom Network ($LOOM) and aelf ($ELF) have contributed the most to the Monitoring zone's volume increase.The BNB Chain zone saw a 5.8% decrease in trading volume on Convert. Nonetheless, several tokens were highly demanded in this zone. Polkastarter ($POLS) and COMBO ($COMBO) saw the highest increase in trading demand among tokens in the BNB Chain zone.During the same period, volume in the Fan Token zone fell by 8.2%. FC Barcelona Fan Token ($BAR) and FC Porto ($PORTO) are the two most popular tokens in this zone. The demand for Manchester City Fan Token ($CITY) fell the most dramatically.

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

Bonk ($BONK ) is a dog-themed token built on the Solana blockchain. Its price increased by more than 80% last week in response to a broader rally among meme coins and a proposal for a massive treasury burn totalling 280 billion tokens. BONK DAO intends to burn 278,393,137,215 BONK from its Treasury, accounting for 100% of the BONK generated by BONK DAO under its revenue-sharing agreement with BONKBot since its launch in late 2023. The proposal has been well received by the Bonk community, which sees the burn as a positive step toward stabilising the coin's market and encouraging growth. As the proposal awaits approval, the anticipation has fuelled a buying frenzy, driving Bonk's price higher.Jito ($JTO ), the Jito Network's native cryptocurrency, has once again joined the mega-uptrend. The Jito ($JTO ) price increased by an incredible 27.2% last week. Jito Network contributes significantly to the Solana ecosystem through its JitoSOL liquid staking pool and a variety of MEV products.BRC-20 token Sats ($1000SATS ) experienced a large-scale pullback prior to the BTC halving and saw strong demand afterward. Sats is the second-largest BRC-20 token by market capitalisation and one of the most popular meme coins. The recent surge is more closely related to the overall strong performance of the Memecoin space.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the last 30 days.Our desk believes the $60k - $61k range is in high demand, as previously stated. When the bitcoin price fell below $60k on April 17 due to rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, strong demand quickly pushed it back above $61k.The demand zone was tested again when a rumour circulated on social media about an explosion in Iran. This could be Israel's response to Iran's drone and missile attack two days ago. Concerns about a potential war between the two countries led to a sudden sell-off in Bitcoin. The long shadow needle also shows that the strong demand zone remains effective.On April 20, Bitcoin completed its fourth halving, reducing the block reward from 6.5 BTC to 3.25 BTC for miners who validate transactions on the Bitcoin network. The BTC price has recovered from the sell-off caused by geopolitical tensions, and it has now turned the downward trendline into a support line. Our team believes that the BTC price will trade sideways as many miners will sell their holdings because they cannot stay in the business after the halving. ETF demand will continue to play a significant role in the coming months, with new Bitcoin ETFs listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Options Market

The above chart shows the at-the-money implied volatility for BTC options.As shown above, the implied volatility for BTC options across various tenors decreased following the halving. The IV for the 7-day expiry option has dropped over 10% from more than 70% to 60% in the last three days. IVs for longer-term options have also gradually declined from the 70% level.As the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East subside, our desk expects the IVs of BTC options to remain at this level in the coming weeks before gradually returning to the 50% range in the coming months.

The table above displays the at-the-money implied volatility (IV) for BTC and ETH options of varying tenors.Following the BTC halving, the IVs of BTC options fell, while the IVs of ETH options remained around 70%. Following the halving, the difference between ETH and BTC options of the same tenor widened. The current difference between the IVs of ETH and BTC 7-day options is approximately 6.8%. Options traders can capitalise on such IV differences by selling ETH straddle options and buying BTC straddle options with the same notional. Furthermore, the higher IVs on ETH options indicate that the options market believes ETH will be more volatile than BTC in the next several months, which could be a signal of the start of the long-awaited altcoin season.

Macro at a glance 
Last Wednesday (24-04-17)The Eurozone's CPI growth rate slowed further in March. In March, the annualised CPI fell from 2.6% in February to 2.4%, while the core CPI fell from 3.1% in February to 2.9%. The cooling of inflation in the Eurozone provides a solid foundation for the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June. Last Thursday (24-04-18)US initial jobless claims remain low; they were reported at 212k last week, the same as the week before. The strong labour market and sticky inflation in the United States have altered market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts this year. To combat persistent inflation, several FOMC members proposed keeping the current interest rate unchanged for an extended period of time.On Tuesday (24-04-23)S&P Global US manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.9 in April, down from last month's 51.9 and the forecasted 52.0. S&P Global Services PMI is expected to be 50.9 in April, down from the forecasted 52.0 and 51.7 last month. Both PMI figures suggest that the US economy will slow in April. Australia's CPI growth rate has outpaced expectations. The annualised CPI fell from 4.1% in Q4 2023 to 3.6% in Q1 2024, which exceeded the expected 3.4%. However, inflation at 3.6% exceeds the Reserve Bank of Australia's long-term target rate of 2%. Australia's high inflation has delayed the RBA's expected rate cut.Later this week, we haveUS Q1 GDP growth rate on ThursdayBank of Japan’s interest rate decision on Friday local timeUS PCE price index for March will be released on Friday

Convert Portal Volume Change

The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, our desk noticed a drop in trading volume across all zones due to the BTC halving and low trading demand.Over the last seven days, trading volume in the Liquid Staking Zone has decreased by 25.25 percent. Jito ($JTO ) is the most popular token in this zone.The Meme zone saw a 27.05% decrease in trading volume on Convert. Bonk ($BONK ) and Sats ($1000SATS ) experienced the greatest increase in trading demand among all tokens in the Meme Zone.During the same period, volume in the Solana zone decreased by 36.47%. Bonk ($BONK ) and Jito ($JTO ) are the most trending tokens in this zone.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 
Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

JasmyCoin ($JASMY ) is the native cryptocurrency that powers all of the activities within the Jasmy ecosystem. The project aims to create a world in which users own their data while maintaining privacy and security. Panasonic, the renowned tech giant, recently collaborated with Jasmy (JASMY) blockchain to launch a groundbreaking Web3 platform that will enable the seamless connection of personal data on the Internet of Things (IoT). Uniswap ($UNI ) is the governance token for the decentralized exchange Uniswap. The DEX recently announced that it is raising its trading fees. The majority of swap fees will increase, from 0.15% to 0.25%. This change is in response to potential legal issues raised by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The increase aims to provide long-term funding for ongoing activities and potential legal costs. PAX Gold ($PAXG ) is Paxos' commodity-backed gold stablecoin, which has physical gold backing. When geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated over the weekend, investors rushed to purchase the PAXG token for gold exposure. Although the crypto market fell due to the risk backdrop, PAXG reached a new all-time high of $3,295 on the exchange. This was due to strong demand for the risk-haven asset in the crypto market after traditional markets closed.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the last 30 days.As we discussed in our previous post, our desk believes the $60k - $61k range is a strong demand zone (the red box). When the BTC price breaks the upward trendline support at $66.5k, the next strong support will be the strong demand zone between $60k and $61k.On April 13 and 14, BTC fell 14.5% in 48 hours, from $71k to $60.6k, due to bearish market sentiments caused by the revision in rate cut estimates by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions.The first wick down from $70k to $65k was more closely related to hawkish Federal Reserve members' comments on this year's rate cuts. Following the hotter-than-expected CPI numbers, the financial market revised its previous expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in June. As supporting evidence, US Treasury yields rose. The revision of estimates of three rate cuts to two by the Federal Reserve this year dampened some bullish sentiment in risky assets, as monetary easing from the Fed may not occur as soon as the market expected. Iran's use of drones and missiles to attack Israel on Saturday heightened Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. With the risk backdrop, our desk witnessed a massive sell-off in the cryptocurrency market, which was the only market open for trading over the weekend. BTC fell nearly 10% in two hours, dragging down the entire crypto market, with many altcoins falling by 30%-50%. The rapid sell-off resulted in a large number of liquidations, enhancing the scale of the sell-off. While BTC price dropped towards the strong demand zone ($60k - 61k), it quickly rebounded and traded back above $65k within three hours. However, as Middle East tensions between Israel and Iran persisted, bearish sentiment and risk-averse trading behaviour continued to dominate the market. Our desk believes the market will attempt to test the strong demand zone in the coming days. If the Bitcoin price breaks the $60k - 61k range, the next support level will be $59k, which BTC had tested when its price reached the previous all-time high of $69k in March. If the $59k support level fails, the $56k–$57k range will be the next support level.

Options Market

The above table shows the 25-delta skewness for BTC and ETH options.Following the weekend sell-off, our desk noticed that the options market was indicating strong bearish sentiment in the shorter term. The 25-delta skew on BTC options with a 7-day expiry was -6.39, while the data for ETH options with the same expiry was -10.7.The heavily skewed negative data suggests that due to Middle Eastern tensions, options traders and institutional investors were more risk-averse on BTC and ETH over the next 30 days.On the other hand, at the 60-day expiry, the skew of BTC options is positive. At longer time frames, the data remains above zero. Following the halving, options traders and institutional investors remain bullish on BTC in the long run, with a preference for puts to protect against short-term downside.However, our desk noticed that options traders are bearish on Ethereum with a longer tenor. As shown above, the 25-delta skews on ETH are negative in the short, intermediate, and long tenors, turning positive only with a 180-day expiry. Without a catalyst in the near future, we expect ETH to underperform BTC over the next three to six months.With the halving this Friday, our desk anticipates increased implied volatility and higher short-term option premiums. It is critical to manage the risks associated with this much-anticipated event. 

Macro at a glance 
Last Wednesday (24-04-10)In March, the US CPI rose by 0.4% month on month, exceeding the expected 0.3%. The annualised CPI growth rate was 3.5%, versus an estimated 3.4% and 3.2% last month. Core CPI came in higher than expected as well at 0.4% in March, with an annualised rate of 3.8%, both the same as February's figures. After the CPI data print, the market began to reduce the likelihood of a June rate cut.The Bank of Canada kept its interest rate at 5.00% and hinted at a first rate cut in June if inflation continued to decline.Last Thursday (24-04-11)The European Central Bank maintained its interest rate at 4.50% and indicated that it would consider its first rate cut in June. As the European zone's inflation rate has fallen from 10.6% in 2022 to 2.4% in March 2024, the ECB has a stronger foundation to ease monetary policy. Arguably, Eurozone economic conditions allow the ECB to make one rate cut on its own rather than following the Federal Reserve's lead in cutting interest rates. Last week, US initial jobless claims were at 211k, lower than the estimated 216k and the previous week's 222k.In March, US PPI increased by 0.2% month on month, falling short of the expected 0.3% and February's 0.6%. In March, core PPI rose by 0.2% month on month, as expected. The lower PPI data suggests that US inflation may continue to fall, while the higher-than-expected CPI data in March may only be acting as a speed bump.Last Saturday (24-04-13)Iran launched an attack on Israel with more than 300 drones and missiles. The escalated geopolitical conflict caused the crypto market to fall as a whole, with gold-related cryptocurrencies being the only asset to rise. On Monday (24-04-15)In March, US retail sales increased by 0.7% month on month, beating the estimated 0.4% growth rate but falling short of February's 0.9% increase. The core retail sales growth rate was 1.1%, higher than the estimated 0.5% and February's 0.6%. 
Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, our desk noticed that trading volume increased significantly in Launchpad.Over the last seven days, the Launchpad Zone has experienced an 81.9 percent increase in volume. TROY ($TROY) and Open Campus ($EDU) are the main contributors to such growth.The Storage zone saw an 8.2% increase in trading volume on Convert. Bluzelle ($BLZ) and Arweave ($AR) saw the highest increase in trading demand among all tokens in the Storage zone.The NFT zone, however, experienced a 41.7% volume drop during the same period. Tensor ($TNSR) and ApeCoin ($APE) had the most significant volume drop in this zone.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 
Email: trading@binance.com for more information.
Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

Last week, $FARM , the native token of Harvest Finance's yield farming protocol, increased by 93.9% due to a significant volume increase. Harvest Finance is a yield farming protocol that allocates user funds across multiple defi platforms to generate returns.Bella Protocol ($BEL ) has entered into a strategic partnership with Manta Network ($MANTA) recently. Bella Protocol is dedicated to exploring new partnerships in liquidity farming to increase yield opportunities for its community, drive the development of infrastructure layers and DeFi applications, and pave the way for a more expansive, efficient, and equitable DeFi ecosystem across diverse landscapes.Nervos ($CKB) gained 98.1% last week. This surge is closely related to the application of RGB++, an extension protocol based on the success of RGB (Really Good Bitcoin). RGB++ addresses scalability issues by utilizing Bitcoin's Lightning Network sidechain and Layer 2 capabilities.Ethena ($ENA) is a synthetic dollar protocol based on Ethereum that will provide a crypto-native solution for money that is not dependent on traditional banking infrastructure. Its recent announcement to increase the stake reward sparked market demand, and its price rose 61.3% in 7 days.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement last month.BTC found trendline support from the lower red line and broke through the upper resistant trendline on Monday. However, the BTC price failed to stand above the wedge's upper bound and is currently trading around $69k.On Tuesday, the fake breakout shook off some leveraged long positions, liquidating over $15 million in long positions on the exchange in the last 24 hours. Because the BTC halving day is less than two weeks away, our desk anticipates that the market will be more volatile in the next several weeks.If the $69k support level fails to hold, the next support level is around $66,500 by the lower trendline, followed by the $60k strong demand zone as marked in red.

The above chart shows the ETH price movement last month.On the other hand, ETH successfully broke above the downward trendline and turned it into support. Following Vitalik's last-minute appearance at Hong Kong's largest Web3 event, ETH experienced strong demand in the Asia session and continued its momentum in the Europe session. ETH price increased by more than 8% in 12 hours before retracing in the US session.The bearish sentiment stemmed from the diminishing prospect of SEC ETF approval in May, and the sell-off on the BTC spreadover added to the downward pressure.If ETH can stay above the downward trendline, which is now acting as support, the next major supply zone will be around $4,100.
Options Market

The above table shows the 25-delta skewness for BTC and ETH options.The BTC reward halving date is approaching, with an estimated date of April 19, 2024. Following Monday's fake breakout, the 25-delta skew is slightly below zero on the front end. We observed a similar skew on ETH options with the same duration.In the intermedia tenor, the skew of BTC options remains above zero for both 30-day and 60-day expiry. With the same expiries, the skews of ETH options are closer to the 0 level.Options traders are more risk averse on BTC near-term options, despite maintaining a positive outlook after the halving. They are less bullish on ETH in the medium term, especially since investors and traders have given up hope of an SEC ETF approval in May.With the halving event only two weeks away, our desk expects implied volatility to rise and short-term options to have higher premiums. It is critical to manage risks around this long-awaited event. 

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-04-04)US initial jobless claims rose to 221k last week, exceeding the estimated 213k and the previous week's 212k. The initial jobless claims are a proxy measure of the US labor market, and they have been reported in the 210k range over the last nine weeks.Several FOMC members made hawkish remarks about the fewer rate cuts in 2024. Risk assets fell sharply, while the US dollar and US Treasury yields rose.Last Friday (24-04-05)US nonfarm payrolls increased by 303k in March, far exceeding the expected 212k and last month's 270k. The strong nonfarm payrolls indicate that the US labour market is stronger than expected.The US unemployment rate fell back to 3.8% in March, having risen from 3.7% in January to 3.9% in February. The data provided clear support for the hawkish remarks made by several FOMC members yesterday. The Canadian unemployment rate increased from 5.8% in February to 6.1% in March, exceeding the expected 5.9%. This Monday (24-04-08)Israel announced on Sunday that it had withdrawn additional soldiers from southern Gaza. The easing of geopolitical tensions caused a retracement in gold and oil prices. Risk assets rose in the US session.BTC unexpectedly soared above $71k with increased implied volatility in options. ETH outperformed BTC following Vitalik's last-minute appearance at Hong Kong's largest Web3 event to give a technical talk on blockchain technology. Later this week, we haveUS CPI data on WednesdayBank of Canada interest rate decision on WednesdayFOMC meeting minutes on WednesdayEuropean Central Bank interest rate decision on Thursday
Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, our desk noticed that trading volume increased significantly in Fan Token and Payments zones.Over the last seven days, the Fan Token Zone has experienced the greatest percentage increase in volume. AS Roma Fan Token ($ASR) is the main contributor to such tremendous growth.The Payments zone saw a 37.4% increase in trading volume on Convert. Pundi X ($PUNDIX) saw the highest increase in trading demand among all tokens in the Payments zone.The DeFi zone also experienced a 1.1% volume increase. Harvest Finance ($FARM ) and Bella Protocol ($BEL ) had the most significant volume increase in this zone and contributed the most to the growth.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

GHST, Aavegotchi's native token, recently reached an all-time high. This historic achievement comes three years after the token was introduced, indicating strong growth and active community engagement in the blockchain gaming sector. Moreover, other on-chain gaming projects were outperformed in the last few days.Ravencoin (RVN) is a protocol based on a fork of the Bitcoin code that includes features designed specifically to allow tokens to be issued on the Ravencoin blockchain. These tokens can have any properties that the issuer desires. The massive demand for this token last week doubled its price in four days to $0.06, and it is now trading at $0.418.Another bitcoin code forked token, Bitcoin Cash ($BCH ), received a lot of market attention last week. In just four days, the price of BCH soared from $540 to more than $700. Right now, BCH is trading at $626.PENDLE, a leading project focused on restaking, reached an all-time high of $5.79 today. When PENDLE first listed on Binance on July 3, last year, it was trading at $0.77. In nine months, PENDLE's price increased 7.5x to $5.79, with a total value locked (TVL) of over $3.8 billion in assets.  

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the last 30 days.The Bitcoin price is currently trading in this bullish pennant pattern. As long as the lower red line holds and BTC price finds support around $63,000, the market's bullish structure will continue. Following the FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish comments about rate cuts boosted the market. However, the Swiss National Bank's surprise interest rate cut shifted the market narrative for major central banks. Previously, the market expected the Federal Reserve to be the first central bank to begin the rate cuts, with other major central banks following. The Swiss National Bank has become the first to pivot, with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England potentially following before the Federal Reserve. The US dollar will be the strongest currency if the Federal Reserve keeps its interest rate unchanged when other central banks are forced to begin their rate cuts. Powell's recent talks provided no clarity on the timing or scale of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. With such a risk backdrop and the upcoming BTC halving, our desk noticed some profit-taking in the cryptocurrency space, and investors are holding cash on the slide line, waiting for more market clarity before making their next move.
Options Market

The above chart shows the 25-delta skewness change for BTC options last week. BTC reward halving day is approaching, with an estimated date of April 19, 2024. Based on the price actions around the halving time in the previous three halvings, our desk anticipates market to be volatile two weeks around the halving.With the Federal Reserve's muddled macro guidance, our desk found that options traders were more willing to buy puts to protect their downside risk than to buy calls for upside potential.The short-tenor options are trading with a negative skewness on the market, while the intermediate and long-tenor options are trading at a similar skewness level as last week.However, our desk noticed a difference in the ETH options.

The above chart shows the 25-delta skewness change for ETH options last week. The 25-delta skews of ETH options in the 7-day and 30-day expiry options are negative, but the skews are increasing from a week ago. An upward trend was also observed in the 60-day expiry ETH options.It indicates that options traders are changing their outlook on ETH prices over the next two months. One reason could be that options traders are betting on the SEC's approval of the Ethereum spot ETF in May.Over the past few weeks, the price of Ethereum has underperformed the price of Bitcoin as the market's hope on the SEC's approval of ETH spot ETFs has diminished. The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF demonstrated to the market a significant capital inflow. If the SEC approves ETH spot ETFs in May, ETH prices may see a similar price action. 

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (24-03-28)UK GDP fell 0.3% in Q4 2023, following a 0.1% drop in Q3 2023. The data confirmed that the UK was in recession at the end of 2023. US GDP increased by 3.4% in Q4 2023, following a strong 4.9% growth in Q3 2023. The strong US GDP growth reflects different economic conditions than the ones in UK.Initial jobless claims fell from 212k to 210k this week. The US labor market remains strong.The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a key indicator of economic activity in the Chicago region, fell further from 44.0 in February to 41.4 in March.Last Friday (24-03-29)The US PCE price index increased by 0.3% monthly in February, slowing from 0.4% in January. The Core PCE price index increased by 0.3% monthly, slowing from 0.5% in January. The annualized core PCE price index was 2.8%, slightly lower than the 2.9% reported in January.On Monday (24-04-01)The US ISM manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.3 in March, exceeding the forecasted 48.5 and the previous month's 47.8. The US ISM manufacturing price was also reported at 55.8, higher than the expected 53.3 and the previous month's 52.5.On Tuesday (24-04-02)Germany's CPI growth rate was expected to be 0.4% monthly in March, lower than the previously estimated 0.5% rate. The annualized CPI growth rate was expected to be 2.2%, down from last month's 2.5% rate.US job openings increased from 8.748 million in January to 8.756 million in February.On Wednesday (24-04-03)The Eurozone CPI growth rate in March was projected to be 2.4% annually, while the core CPI growth rate was projected to be 2.9%. Both projections were slightly lower than the previous forecast.In March, the US ADP nonfarm employment change was 184k, up from the estimated 148k.The ISM non-manufacturing PMI reading was 51.4, lower than the forecasted 52.8. The weaker-than-expected data boosted the US equity and crypto markets by indicating that less demand was expected, resulting in lower inflation pressures. However, Fed Chairman Powell's remarks did not specify the timing or scale of potential rate cuts. Both the equities and crypto markets gave up most of the gains from the PMI readings.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, our desk noticed that trading volume increased significantly in Liquid Staking, while volume changes in other zones were minor. Over the last seven days, the Liquid Staking Zone has experienced the greatest percentage increase in volume. Trading volume increased by 370.9%, owing to higher trade demand for Jito ($JTO).The Monitoring zone saw a 9.1% increase in trading volume on Convert. Akropolis ($AKRO) and OAX ($OAX) saw the highest increase in trading demand among all tokens in the Monitoring zone.The NFT zone also experienced a 6.7% volume increase. GMT ($GMT), STEPN's governor token, has seen the most significant volume increase in this zone and contributed the most to volume growth.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

Polymesh ($POLYX ), an institutional-grade permissioned blockchain designed specifically for regulated assets, has gained market traction following BlackRock's exploration into the Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization space. Its prominence reflects the growing interest in blockchain-based financial solutions, establishing it as a market leader in this evolving sector. The 190% gain in seven days demonstrates the high demand for this token and the market's interest in the project.Badger ($BADGER ) is a DAO that aims to bring Bitcoin as a collateral asset for DeFi applications. Badger DAO introduced a synthetic BTC token (eBTC), a feature with great potential for use in DeFi lending. The stablecoin, which references the Bitcoin rate and runs on the Ethereum network, uses Lido's staked ether (stETH) as a bond. This goal can be accomplished by implementing a strategy that aims to increase decentralization and capital efficiency throughout the DeFi domain.Terra ($LUNA ) increased 44.6% in the last seven days following Do Kwon's official release from Montenegro prison. The strong rally also increased the hot debut on social media platforms, pushing the price higher.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the last 30 days.As previously discussed, we expected last week's BTC selloff from its all-time high to find support at the $60k level, as shown above in the upper red box. The strong demand for bitcoin around the $60k level, combined with Fed Chairman Powell's dovish comments, pushed the bitcoin price back into the $68k resistance zone. Fed Chairman Powell made some dovish comments after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 5.50%, with an updated dot plot indicating three rate cuts in 2024. He also mentioned that the Fed was planning to reduce its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program soon. Powell's comments, as well as the dot plot's expected path of interest rate cuts, boosted market sentiment and sent risk assets higher. BTC bulls capitalised on this sentiment and forced bears to close their short positions. As a result of Powell's press conference, the Bitcoin price returned to $68k within four hours.However, our desk noticed a short-term downward trend in BTC price over the last two days. The $69k key level now serves as support. If the Bitcoin price falls below $69k, the lower bound of the upward channel will be tested.

Options Market

The above table shows the 25-delta skewness for BTC and ETH options. As a result of the improved market sentiment that followed the FOMC meeting, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum rose from their lows of the previous week and are currently trading sideways.The 25-delta skews on BTC options return to positive territory for all tenors. It demonstrates that market sentiment on BTC leans towards a bullish view. The skewness in front-end options is close to zero, indicating that market sentiment is more or less balanced and that there is no clear direction for BTC price in the short term, according to data.
On the other hand, the 25-delta skews in ETH options do not indicate such a bullish sentiment. In the short to medium term, the skews on ETH options remain negative. Although the skews in the short-term options are less negative than last week's data, it indicates that investors and traders are less willing to hold positive delta positions on Ethereum, and the market is betting on Bitcoin's short to medium-term performance rather than Ethereum's.
Macro at a glance 
Last Wednesday (24-03-20)The Federal Reserve announced that its interest rate would remain at 5.50%, unchanged. Fed Chairman Powell's dovish comments boosted gold, equities, and cryptocurrency markets following the press conference. The dot plot indicates that the Federal Reserve will make three quarter-percentage point cuts in 2024. The market expects the Fed's first rate cut in June.Last Thursday (24-03-21)The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 5.25%, unchanged. The Bank's governor, Andrew Bailey, stated that the rate cut decision would be data-driven, and the data indicated that it was in the right direction.Last week, initial jobless claims in the United States totalled 210k, which was in line with the forecast of 212k. As Powell stated in the press following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the strong labour market would not cause the Fed to be concerned about rising inflation.On Tuesday (24-03-26)In February, US durable goods orders rose by 1.4% month on month, exceeding the expected 1.2% increase. Durable goods orders have begun to recover from January's 6.9% drop.In March, US Conference Board (CB) consumer confidence was 104.7, lower than expected at 106.9. The lower-than-expected consumer confidence data suggested that consumer demand had eased, which would help to reduce inflation over time.This Friday, the PCE price index data will be released, which could provide more clarity to the market if the US inflation rate moves in the direction expected by the Federal Reserve. It will also provide insight into the Fed's rate cuts this year.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, our desk noticed that trading volume increased significantly in the Launchpool while remaining low in other zones. Over the last seven days, the Launchpool Zone has seen the greatest percentage increase in volume. Trading volume increased by 80.7%, primarily due to increased trade demand for Shentu ($CTK).The Monitoring zone saw a 14.9% decrease in trading volume on Convert. Among all the tokens in the Monitoring zone, trading demand for Enzyme ($MLN) increased the most, while demand for JasmyCoin ($JASMY) decreased the most.The Layer1/Layer2 zone also saw a 49.9% volume decrease as the market traded sideways. Large market capitalization Layer1 and Layer2 tokens are weighted in this volume drop.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 
Email: trading@binance.com for more information.
Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the market

Frontier ($FRONT ) surged from $0.50 on February 17 to a one-year high of $3.08 on March 17. The 500%+ price increase drew significant market attention to this token and its project. This bullish movement was halted with a sharp decline on March 18th, following a message on social media saying that DWF Labs had transferred over 1 million FRONT tokens to Binance. The price was cut in half in two days after reaching a one-year high on March 17. Last week, MANTRA ($OM) outperformed the overall cryptocurrency market. It grew by 98.3%, while BTC fell by 13.7% during the same period. MANTRA is a layer-one blockchain focused on real-world assets (RWAs). The project team announced today that they have received a $11 million investment for their new funding round. RWA tokenization, along with AI and restaking, has been a key innovation sector this year, and the market is seeing significant capital inflows into it. Solana, which is now ranked fifth by market capitalization in the cryptocurrency market, experienced a strong bullish movement last week. Its price once reached $210, a two-year high following the fall of the FTX. The strong market demand for Solana began in October 2023, when SOL was at $22. As the Solana ecosystem grew, so did the transaction volume on the Solana chain, and demand for SOL.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement since October 2023.On March 14, BTC reached a new all-time high of 73,777 USDT, but a sell-off followed shortly. It fell more than 16% from the all-time high in just one week. One possible explanation is Genesis' liquidation. As previously stated in mid-February, one of the potential selloffs could be caused by Genesis' liquidation of GBTC ETF shares. According to Bloomberg, Genesis Global Holdco LLC has been granted bankruptcy court permission to sell Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares worth more than $1.3 billion to compensate clients who lent it digital assets when BTC was at $52k.In one month, the BTC price increased by 40%, making the potential GBTC sale worth more than $1.8 billion. It's not surprising that Genesis wants to close this position as soon as possible and reap the benefits for its clients and creditors.Compared to the $1 billion liquidation by the FTX bankruptcy trustee, the BTC price may find support above $60k, as indicated by the red box in the chart.If the $60k support level cannot be maintained, the next strong support level will be around $50k.

Options Market

The above table shows the 25-delta skewness for BTC and ETH options. Following the sharp selloff in Bitcoin and Ethereum, both assets experienced negative skewnesses in their short-term options.Following the Dencun upgrade to Ethereum, ETH faced significant selling pressure. Furthermore, market expectations that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would approve an ETH spot ETF in May have waned, lowering the asset's price.The -14.79 skewness on 7-day expiry ETH options serves as a flashing warning to traders that the market is extremely bearish on ETH in the short term. In the last seven days, the spot price of ETH has dropped by 24.5%, from 4,098 to 3,092. The aggressive selloff in BTC and ETH shifted market sentiment from bullish to extremely bearish a week ago. Furthermore, the 30-day expiry ETH options is also seeing negative skewness, indicating that options traders are more willing to maintain a negative delta position on ETH for an extended period of time. In contrast, BTC's 30-day expiry options exhibit a positive skewness. The market remains bullish on Bitcoin, despite the fact that it is only one month away from being halved. This sentiment extends to longer time frames.

Macro at a glance 

Last Thursday (2024-03-14)In February, US retail sales rose by 0.6% month on month, falling short of the expected 0.8% increase. Core retail sales rose 0.3% month on month, less than the expected 0.5%.In February, the US PPI rose by 0.6% month on month, exceeding the expected 0.3% increase. The higher PPI growth rate raises concerns about a rebound in inflation, allowing the Federal Reserve to keep the current interest rate in place for a longer period of time before cutting it.Last week, US initial jobless claims were 209k, lower than the expected 218k. Continuing jobless claims totaled 1,811k during the same period, less than the estimated 1,900k. Both numbers indicate that the US labour market remains strong.On Monday (2024-03-18)In February, the Eurozone CPI rose 0.6% month on month, compared to a 0.4% decrease in January. The annualised CPI growth rate dropped to 2.6% from 2.8% in January.In its March meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its interest rate at 4.35%, unchanged. Governor Bullock addressed the fact that inflation has moderated but remains higher than the target rate, and provided no hints about the future path of interest rates.The Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate policy and raised its interest rate to a range of 0-0.1% from -0.1%, for the first time in 17 years. The BOJ's interest rate decision caused a sell-off in the Japanese yen, which fell to more than 150 yen to the dollar. The end of the negative interest rate suggests that global M2 will shrink at a faster rate if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at their current level for longer. A shrinking global M2 will have a negative impact on all risk assets, including Bitcoin.On Tuesday (2024-03-19)The Canadian CPI increased by 2.8% annually in February, down from 2.9% in January. The core CPI increased by 2.1% annually during the same period, down from 2.4% in January. The US building permit issuance was 1.518 million, exceeding the forecasted 1.5 million and January's 1.489 million. The higher-than-expected issuance number implied a positive US economic outlook and a stronger US dollar.On Wednesday (2024-03-20)The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision following the March FOMC meeting. Based on recent strong economic data, the "higher for longer" narrative remains in play. The market expects the Fed to begin cutting interest rates in June, followed by three more cuts in 2024. The Fed's dot plot will be in focus because it will provide more clarity on the interest rate path in 2024.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week, trading volume increased significantly in the Liquid Staking and Launchpad zones. In the last seven days, the Liquid Staking Zone has experienced the greatest percentage increase in volume. The trading volume increased by 74.6%, with Jito ($JTO) driving the growth.The Launchpad zone also experienced a 22.9% increase in trading volume on Convert. Tokocrypto ($TKO) is the primary driver of the volume increase.Our desk also noticed that demand in the AI zone has decreased by 51.8%. After weeks of increased volume, trading demand for AI-related tokens decreased significantly. Our desk noticed that the majority of flows in the AI zone appeared to be focused on cashing out. Worldcoin ($WLD ) was one of the tokens whose volume dropped.

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

On March 11, Amp ($AMP ), the digital asset token used to collateralize payments on the Flexa Network, increased by more than 350% in just twelve hours. The volatile move in AMP price was thought to be caused by a short squeeze. It reached a multi-week high of 0.02429 USDT before quickly dropping back into the 0.01 USDT range. It is currently trading at $0.01425 USDT.The 0x Protocol is an open-source, decentralized exchange infrastructure that facilitates the exchange of tokenized assets across multiple blockchains. ZRX, the 0x Protocol's governance token, has experienced strong market demand since March 9. The high demand was fueled by social media hype claiming that big whales are accumulating large long positions in this token.This week, our desk noticed that on-chain gaming projects are receiving a lot of funding, and investors are lining up to buy gaming project tokens. Yield Guild Games ($YGG) and GALA ($GALA ) are the two with the highest volume growth on Convert. Last week, both tokens experienced a more than 200% increase in volume on Convert, as well as an over 80% increase in price.
Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement since the beginning of January 2024.BTC surpassed the previous cycle peak of 69,000 USDT set in 2021, reaching 73,000 USDT today, March 12, 2024.Four years ago, on March 12, 2020, the crypto market and the entire financial market experienced one of their most volatile trading sessions in history. Along with the US equity market, which suffered the largest single-day percentage drop since the 1987 stock market crash, the crypto market experienced a massive market crash that day. BTC price fell 39.4% in one day, from 7,934 USDT to 4,800 USDT. It fell further when the Asian market opened, reaching a low of 3,782 USDT before recovering to the 5,000 range. ETH's price fell 44.6%, from 194 USDT to 107 USDT. It continued to fall to its lowest point of 86 USDT before recovering above the 100 level.Fast forward to today, BTC has reached an all-time high of 73,000 USDT, while ETH is trading at around 4,000 USDT.According to our analysis, BTC is in the price discovery phase, with 73,000 USDT serving as the new resistance level. This resistance level will not keep the BTC price in this range for long, and we expect it to quickly reach 80,000 once it clears the 73,000 barrier.
Options Market

The above table shows the 25-delta skewness for BTC and ETH options. Following the strong break of the previous all-time high of $69,000, BTC experienced some selling pressure, and we see that demand has cooled down.Ethereum, on the other hand, will have its Dencun upgrade on March 13. The Dencun upgrade will significantly reduce gas fees on layer 2 networks, resulting in more on-chain transactions on L2s. However, the Dencun upgrade will not reduce the Layer 1 network gas fee, so users will continue to pay high gas fees for transactions on the Ethereum network. Therefore, we could see fewer transactions on the ETH network and more in L2 networks after the upgrade.Options traders continue to be bullish on Bitcoin, from short to long term.  However, traders have different perspectives on Ethereum in the short and long term.According to the table above, the 25-delta skewness of BTC options is positive across all tenors, with a greater skewness to the upside in long-duration options. That suggests that traders may retreat from their bullish views on BTC in the short term but remain bullish in the long term.The negative skewness of ETH options in the 7-day and 30-day expiries indicates that options traders are more willing to hold a negative delta position in the shorter tenors. In the long-duration ETH options, our desk noticed that the skewness has returned to positive territory. The 180-day expiry ETH options currently have a positive 6.75 skewness, which is similar to the skewness observed in BTC options of the same duration. 

Macro at a glance 
Last Wednesday (2024-03-06)The Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 5.00%, unchanged. Governor Tiff Macklem declined to lay out a rate cut schedule, citing underlying inflation data that suggests a rate cut is premature at this time.In February, ADP nonfarm employment increased by 140,000, falling short of the expected 149,000. The lower-than-expected employment growth suggests that US labour market demand may begin to decline.Last Thursday (2024-03-07)The European Central Bank kept its interest rate at 4.50%, unchanged. The ECB also reduced its annual inflation forecast and hinted that they will have more data in June to increase its confidence in a rate cut.Fed Chairman Powell testified before the House, stating that the Fed does not expect a recession in the United States in the foreseeable future. He also stated that the Fed was close to having enough confidence to cut interest rates. The market is now pricing in the first interest rate cut for the June meeting. Last Friday (2024-03-08)Average hourly earnings in the United States increased by 0.1% in February, falling short of expectations of 0.2% and January's 0.5% increase. Slower hourly earnings growth reduces consumer demand in the United States, resulting in lower inflationary pressures on goods and services.The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9% in February from 3.7% in January. The unexpected change in the unemployment rate indicated some extent of labour market rebalancing.On Tuesday (2024-03-12)In February, Germany's CPI increased by 0.4%, up from 0.2% in the previous month. The annualized CPI growth rate was 2.5%, down from 2.9% in January.The US CPI increased by 3.2% annually in February, exceeding the forecasted 3.1% and January's 3.1%. Core CPI growth was 3.8% annually, higher than the expected 3.7% but lower than January's 3.9%. The higher-than-expected CPI readings caused some volatility in the US futures markets. The hot CPI readings, however, did not change the market's view of the Fed's June rate cut. The S&P 500 index rose 1.12%, the Nasdaq index rose 1.54%, and the Dow Jones industrial average index rose 0.61%.Along with the strong US equity market, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $73k after the market opened and was heavily sold afterwards. The Bitcoin price fell 6% to $68,620 intraday before recovering from the low and now trading at $72,030.
Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week our desk observed massive trading demand on Gaming and Infrastructure zones. In the last seven days, the Gaming Zone has emerged as the most popular area. The trading volume increased by 89.8%, primarily due to high demand for Yield Guild Games ($YGG) and GALA ($GALA ).The Infrastructure zone also experienced a 50% increase in trading volume on our Convert Portal. Livepeer ($LPT) and Render ($RNDR), both of which focus on the DePin area, are the two main contributors to this high growth volume.Our desk also observed that demand in the Meme zone has decreased by 25.9%. Following the stunning 1,182% volume increase last week, the FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment subsided. Our desk noticed that most flows in the Meme zone seemed to be skewed towards cashing out.
Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 
Email: trading@binance.com for more information.
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This week, Shiba Inu ($SHIB ) is one of the most popular coins on social media. The price of SHIB was up 387% since February 26 to 0.00004567 on March 5, the highest in 2 years. The parabolic move on SHIB price also brought in massive trading demand for this token. Now SHIB is ranked 11 by market capitalization, bypassing Chainlink ($LINK) and Uniswap ($UNI), and one rank below Dogecoin ($DOGE).Moreover, the hype on SHIB spread to other dog-themed coins, including Floki ($FLOKI ). Floki experienced an exciting week, with a 400% gain in one week, from February 26 to March 4. The price surge came on the heels of a community-backed proposal to burn 2% of the token’s supply. The proposal to burn tokens was met with overwhelming support from the community, with nearly 90% of votes favouring the initiative.With the incredible price action on meme coins, ConstitutionDAO ($PEOPLE ) also joined the party. The price of PEOPLE started to pump on February 26 and posted a 125% gain when the BTC price reached a new all-time high of $69,000 today.
Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement since the end of January 2024.BTC hit an all-time high of 69,000 USDT on the spot market today!After the BTC price reached 69,000 USDT on November 10, 2021, the bear market began with a series of market capitulation events, including the collapse of the Terra Luna ecosystem, the bankruptcy of Three Arrow Capital, and the bankruptcy of crypto exchange FTX. On November 21, 2022, the bitcoin price fell to 15,476 USDT in just one year.Although the Bitcoin price found its ground and moved higher in 2023, the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank caused a 22% correction in Bitcoin price.Since the beginning of 2023, the Bitcoin price has undergone multiple 15% corrections, the most recent being the selloff following the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs.Today, the Bitcoin price reclaimed its all-time high of 69,000 USDT before falling as much as 14.5% in five hours to $59,005 USDT on the spot market. The bulls recovered some of the loss, and it is now trading at 65,743 USDT.Such volatile trading sessions are normal in the crypto market, and our desk observed a larger scale of correction in other altcoins, particularly those that had doubled, tripled, or even quadrupled in the previous few days.Today’s retracement found its support at the red box zone around $59,500, as illustrated in the chart above. This is a strong support zone. The bitcoin price could continue its upward journey as long as this support level is intact.
Options Market

The above table shows the 25-delta skewness for BTC options last week.The recent Bitcoin price action has resulted in several spikes on the short-term options market (the black line). The skewness reached more than 10 on March 1, when the Bitcoin price soared to $63,500. The increase in skewness suggests that options traders were rushing to build a positive delta position, either by buying calls, selling puts, or a combination of both.We saw multiple downside spikes today, indicating the opposite trading action. During the capitulation, when the Bitcoin price fell to $59,000, it appeared that options traders were taking a negative delta position.Despite significant fluctuations in the short-tenor options last week, we noticed that the skewness in the mid-to-long-tenor options remained positive at the same level. Nonetheless, options traders remain optimistic about the bitcoin price over the next three to six months. This bullish sentiment could help the BTC move higher and reach a new all-time high in the coming months.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (2024-02-29)In February, Germany's monthly CPI growth rate was 0.4%, lower than the estimated 0.5%. The annualized CPI growth rate fell from 2.9% in January to 2.5% in February, which was lower than the expected 2.6%.In January, the US PCE price index increased by 0.3% month on month, up from 0.1% in December. The annualized PCE price index rose 2.4%, in line with market expectations, slowing from 2.6% in December. The US core PCE price index was also regaining momentum, rising from 0.1% in December to 0.4% in January month on month, as expected. The annualized core PCE price index fell from 2.9% in December to 2.8% in January, as expected. The re-acceleration of PCE price index growth and core PCE price index growth raises the prospect of a June rate cut by the Fed. The US dollar index rose, while the Bitcoin price fluctuated around $62,500.Last Friday (2024-03-01)The annual CPI growth rate in the Eurozone fell to 2.6% in February, down from 2.8% in January. However, it exceeded the estimated 2.5% rate. The core CPI growth rate fell from 3.3% in January to 3.1% in February, but it remained higher than the expected 2.9%.In February, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI was reported at 47.8, lower than the economists' forecast of 49.5 and further down from January's 49.1. It indicates that the US manufacturing industry has continued to contract.On Tuesday (2024-03-05)The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI was reported at 52.6, below the economists' forecast of 53.0.The US equity market fell due to a selloff in AI-related stocks, including Microsoft and Adobe, after AI startup Anthropic claimed that its new models, Claude 3, could outperform OpenAI's ChatGPT. The risk-off sentiment has spread to the cryptocurrency market. BTC fell $10,000, or 14.5%, after reaching a new all-time high of 69,000 USDT in the spot market.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week our desk observed massive trading demand on Meme and Metaverse zones. The Meme zone's volume increase of 1,182.1% is primarily driven by high demand for Shiba Inu ($SHIB ). Shiba Inu ($SHIB ) has doubled in price over the last seven days, owing to strong buying demand. The popularity of dog-themed coins increased trading volume for Dogecoin ($DOGE) and Floki ($FLOKI ). Meme ($MEME), ConstitutionDAO ($PEOPLE ), and Bonk ($BONK) are also experiencing significant trading volume increases.The trading volume in the Metaverse zone has risen by 160.7% in the last seven days. Decentraland ($MANA) and The Sandbox ($SAND) are the primary sources of increased demand. Our desk saw a 126.7% increase in trading volume in the POW zone. With Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of $69,000, trading volume for Bitcoin ($BTC) and Bitcoin Cash ($BCH) increased a lot, generating strong interest in coins in the POW zone.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

Uniswap, a leading decentralized exchange (DEX), saw its UNI token skyrocket last week after a proposal to share platform fees with token holders who delegate and stake their tokens. Last Saturday, the UNI price soared over 70% to a near two-year high of $12.79, driven by expectations of increased demand and lower UNI circulating supply due to increased staking on the platform.Other DEX projects, such as DYDX ($DYDX), Curve ($CRV), and Pancakeswap ($CAKE), benefited from the rising UNI as well. Investors hope that the same fee-sharing model will be applied to other DEX platforms.Pepe ($PEPE ), a fog-themed meme coin, has seen a surge in demand in recent days, following rumors on social media that it will be listed on a US cryptocurrency exchange. The bullish sentiment caused the price to double in 48 hours, and it is currently trading at 0.00000330. The increased number of active Pepe wallet addresses fueled the bullish sentiment.   Theta Network ($THETA ) is currently developing the Theta EdgeCloud, an innovative decentralized software platform for periphery computing. The first phase of EdgeCloud will be unveiled on May 1, 2024, according to Theta's roadmap. The Theta team's announcement sparked investor interest, sending the THETA price to a two-year high of $2.30.
Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement since May 2021.As we discussed last week, once Bitcoin broke through the $53,000 resistance level, the next resistance level was $59,000. BTC price fluctuated in the $53,000 red zone for 12 days before breaking through the upper boundary in the European session on Wednesday, February 28.The bullish momentum continued when the US market opened, and the massive inflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs drove the BTC price even higher. Over $500 million of net inflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs in two consecutive days demonstrates the market's strong demand for Bitcoin exposure from investors.On Thursday morning, European time, the strong buy flow returned, pushing the Bitcoin price above $60,000, a level not seen in over two years. The rapid movement in the Bitcoin price resulted in a large liquidation of short positions, and the squeeze pushed the Bitcoin price to 64,000 USDT, according to the Binance spot market. Although bears pushed the BTC price down to 58,700, the daily low, right after the $64,000 high was claimed, bulls were able to recover their gains and keep the price around $62,000 into Asia morning.The volatile market caused significant long- and short-position liquidations, and the market normalised after the big up-and-down swing in the US session.Our desk noticed that altcoins, particularly Ethereum, the second largest coin by market capitalization, were not moving in conjunction with Bitcoin. Instead of spreading purchasing power across other altcoins, the buy flows were heavily concentrated on Bitcoin.The capital inflow pattern is different from what we have experienced in the 2016 and 2020 bull markets. In our opinion, it indicates that the new capital flowing into the crypto market is primarily from the traditional finance world via ETFs, rather than capital from the blockchain/crypto native world.That being said, Bitcoin spot ETFs have a significant impact on the Bitcoin price and the crypto market as a whole, and this new capital may disrupt the bull market structure seen in the previous two bull runs following the Bitcoin reward halving event.We might see the bull market top sooner than most crypto traders expect in 2025. It also suggests that we might see an all-time high in Bitcoin price before the Bitcoin reward halving event in April.
Options Market

The above table shows the at-the-money implied volatility for BTC in February.Bitcoin's price fell to $38,500 in January before beginning a bull run on February 7. The strong bullish move during the Lunar New Year drove the IVs up from below 40% at the beginning of February to 50% by mid-February.After the BTC price consolidated in the $51,000 to $53,000 range for 12 days after mid-February, the IVs of BTC options remained between 50% and 60%, rather than dropping back to 40%.When the BTC price rose recently due to strong demand, so did IVs, indicating that the market was pricing in more volatility in the underlying bitcoin price.Things got interesting after Bitcoin broke the $53,000 and $59,000 resistance levels in a very short time; IVs erupted as the market was surprised by such a rapid rise. The IV for 7-day options spiked over 80% due to the large up-and-down swing last night, and it is currently priced at 70%.The IVs of longer-term options also increased following the volatile trading session, with all trading above the 60% level.The IVs will be maintained at such a high level in the coming days if the BTC price stays above the critical level of $60,000. If the BTC price gradually falls below $60,000, we expect to see 50% IVs for options across all expiries.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (2024-02-22)In January, Eurozone CPI growth decreased by 0.4% on a monthly basis, while the annualised CPI growth rate was 2.8%. The continued slowdown in CPI growth in the Eurozone provides the basis for the European Central Bank to lower interest rates later this year.US initial jobless claims fell to 201k last week, below the estimated 217k and the previous week's 213k. The data suggest that the US labour market remains tight.In February, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was 51.5, exceeding economists' expectations of 50.5. The higher-than-expected PMI reading indicates that the US manufacturing sector is recovering from its contraction last year.The US S&P Global Services PMI was 51.3 in February, below economists' forecasts of 52.4 and the previous month's 52.5. It demonstrates that managers in the US service sector were less optimistic than last month about future economic activity.Germany reported GDP growth of -0.3% q/q and -0.2% y/y. The decline in Germany's GDP growth raised market concerns about the economy's impact from high interest rates. On Tuesday (2024-02-27)In January, US durable goods orders fell 6.1% month on month, worse than the expected 4.9% drop. It marked a significant change from the 0.3% decline in durable goods orders in December.Consumer confidence in the United States fell to 106.7 in February, from an estimated 114.8 and 110.9 in January, according to the Conference Board. Lower consumer confidence will reduce retail sales and consumption.On Wednesday (2024-02-28)The US GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter was 3.2%, slightly lower than the expected 3.3%. The 3.2% growth rate followed a strong 4.9% GDP growth rate in the third quarter in the United States, implying that the US economy was on a firmer footing heading into the first quarter.Next Week, we will keep an eye on the following events:US ADP nonfarm payroll changeBank of Canada interest rate decisionEuropean Central Bank interest rate decision

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week our desk observed massive trading demand on Meme and DeFi zones. The Meme zone's 78.0% volume increase is primarily due to high demand for Pepe ($PEPE ). The abnormal hype surrounding PEPE coin on social media resulted in high demand for this coin, which quickly spread to other Meme coins such as Bonk ($BONK) and Dogecoin ($DOGE), causing their prices to move in the same direction. The trading volume in the DeFi zone increased by 64% in the last seven days. The primary drivers of increased demand are Spell ($SPELL), COTI ($COTI), and Uniswap ($UNI ). As stated at the beginning of the commentary, all three tokens are in the top five weekly coin interest tables.We observed a 16% drop in trading volumes in the AI zone. Following a remarkable 375% increase in trading volume last week, demand for coins in the AI zone has decreased.

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!

 

After passing $51,000 last Wednesday, Bitcoin encountered strong resistance at $53,000 and is currently trading sideways in the $51,000 to $53,000 range. While Bitcoin struggles to gain another leg up, the altcoin space is brimming with strong performers. The recently released text-to-video model Sora by OpenAI reignited market interest in artificial intelligence (AI). Worldcoin ($WLD ), founded in 2019 by Sam Altman, Max Novendstern, and Alex Blania, is one of the winners following the product's release. Sam Altman is also the CEO of OpenAI. WLD prices increased from $3.50 to $7.80 in only four days following the introduction of Sora. Livepeer ($LPT ) has also benefited from Sora's introduction. Livepeer is a decentralized live video streaming network protocol that leverages decentralized technology to provide a viable alternative to traditional, centralized broadcasting methods. LPT's market capitalization nearly tripled in two days following the news, and it now trades at $15.Prom ($PROM) also had a volatile week, with a more than 90% increase in a few hours after DWF Labs CEO Andrei Grachev publicly confirmed his personal investment in the project. Prom is a gaming non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace and rental platform that allows for uncollateralized rentals of NFTs and mortgage services.

Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement since December 2021.As we discussed last week, BTC faces significant resistance above $53,000, as shown by the red zone. If BTC overcomes this resistance level, there will be no significant resistance until it reaches $59,000. As a result, the bears will try to defend this resistance level as much as they can.While BTC has been trading sideways over the last few days, inflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs remain strong. A constant $300 to $500 million in net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs per day demonstrates the high demand from investors for risk exposure to bitcoin.However, the Bitcoin price has increased by 35% last month, rising from $38,500, the lowest level since the FTX bankruptcy estate liquidated $1 billion of GBTC, to $52,000. It's not surprising that investors and traders are rotating their capital from Bitcoin to other altcoins. This capital rotation is completely normal given BTC’s significant price movement.

The above chart shows the ETH/BTC price movement in the last two weeks.
After Bitcoin surged and passed $51,000 last Wednesday, our desk noticed a strong demand for Ethereum. In the last seven days, the ETH/BTC price has increased from 0.0531 to 0.0572, with ETH outperforming BTC.Our desk expects this upward trend in ETH/BTC to continue in the coming weeks, as the ETH network will have the long-awaited Dencun upgrade in March.Another factor contributing to the ETH price's outperformance is the potential approval of an Ethereum spot ETF. Currently, the market expects the SEC approval in May.

Options Market

The above table shows the at-the-money implied volatility for BTC and ETH options with different expiries.While the implied volatilities for BTC options are all above 50%, they stay at the same level as last week. On the other hand, the implied volatilities for ETH options are around 60%, except for the 30-day expiry one.With a large difference in IVs between ETH options and BTC options in the front end, it seems options traders are buying ETH options and pushing the options in the front-end tenor to be higher. It signals that a potential large movement in ETH price in the next few days is priced in the options market.It will be interesting to monitor the IV on ETH near-term options and see if it retraces to the normal range soon. As the bulls failed to hold their ground and keep the ETH price above the $3,000 critical level, our desk expects to see both bulls and bears push forward and crash on the other side.Given the high IVs on ETH front-end options, selling covered calls and covered puts can yield nice returns. For example, selling an ETH-3000 call expiring March 1 will collect an 86.4 USDT premium, a 119% annualized yield, with a spot reference of 2940 USDT.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (2024-02-15)In January, US retail sales fell 0.8% month on month, more than the expected 0.2% drop. The retail sales growth rate in December was revised to 0.4% from 0.6%. Core retail sales fell 0.6% on a monthly basis in January, compared to the expected 0.2% increase.US initial jobless claims remained in the low range, with 212k new claims reported last week, slightly exceeding the expected 219k.British retail sales increased by the most in nearly three years in January as consumers regained their appetite for spending, implying that the economy could recover more quickly than expected from its recession in the second half of last year. Retail sales increased by 3.4% in January, far exceeding the estimated 1.5% increase and December's 3.3% decrease.Last Friday (2024-02-16)The US PPI increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis in January, surpassing both the previous month's -0.1% and the estimated 0.1% increase. The rising PPI will put upward pressure on inflation and could lead to a later rate cut by the Fed.According to Statistics Canada, Canada's CPI fell to 2.9% year on year in January, down from 3.4% the previous month. This reading came in lower than the market's expectation of 3.3%. On a monthly basis, the CPI remained unchanged, despite the expected 0.4% increase. The annual Core CPI increased by 2.4% during the same period, down from 2.6% in December.  The disinflationary numbers in Canada raise the possibility of an early rate cut by the Bank of Canada.On Tuesday (2024-02-20)China's central bank cut the 5-year loan prime rate by 0.25 basis points to 3.95%, while leaving the 1-year rate unchanged at 3.45%. This rate cut is regarded as the latest effort to relieve pressure on the country's struggling real estate market.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. This week our desk observed massive trading demand on AI and Fan Token zones. The impressive 374.5% volume increase in the AI zone is mainly due to the strong demand for Worldcoin ($WLD ). The newly released OpenAI product Sora renewed the market's enthusiasm for Worldcoin, an iris biometric cryptocurrency project founded by Sam Altman, OpenAI's CEO.The trading volume in the Storage zone also doubled. The main drivers of increased demand are Arweave ($AR) and Filecoin ($FIL). Filecoin ($FIL), a peer-to-peer file storage network, announced on Sunday that it will collaborate with smart contract platform Solana (SOL) to develop decentralized blockchain storage solutions. The announcement caused Filecoin to rise from $5.8 to $7.4 in three days.

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

To access manual price quotations, you may visit our Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/spot), where you can RFQ (request-for-quote) and trade directly with our OTC trading team via a live chat.

To utilise our Algo orders features, you may visit our Binance Algo Orders platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/AlgoTrading). 

For any other inquiries on OTC trading, please reach out to us via our email at trading@binance.com for our trading desk to get in touch with you and get started. 

OTC trades may also be automatically quoted on Binance Convert and via API, offering users a quick and simple way to execute trades across 60,000+ pairs with one simple click. Binance Convert supports over 350 tokens listed on the exchange including fiat pairs. Begin trading from as little as 1 USD. To start, simply navigate to the Binance Convert & Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert), select the coins you wish to trade, preview and confirm the quote with settlement reflecting almost instantly in your wallet balance. For details and access to Binance Convert OTC API, please refer to our Convert Endpoints (https://binance-docs.github.io/apidocs/spot/en/#convert-endpoints) and reach out to us at trading@binance.com if you have any questions or require assistance.

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With the strong BTC rally during the Lunar New Year holidays, Stacks ($STX ) soared over 40% in the last seven days.Stacks ($STX ) is a Bitcoin layer 2 solution that enables decentralised apps and smart contracts. Stacks ($STX ) has been running its native network since 2020, and the recent #BRC20 and #BRC404 innovations fuel the enthusiasm for different layers on Bitcoin dApp. And Stacks is one of the leading players in this field.STX was trading at ~$0.63 in November 2023, and BTC was trading at~$36,000 at that time. It started to move higher along with the Bitcoin price, which was driven by the potential Bitcoin spot ETFs approval narrative. With the BTC spot ETFs approvals by the SEC on January 10 and the resulting constant inflow, except the first 9 trading days on the FTX bankruptcy estate liquidation, BTC reclaimed a two-year high above $52,000. Consequently,  STX, an L2 solution on the Bitcoin network and high beta relative to BTC, soared from $0.63 in November 2023, to $2.70 as of today, which is a 328% increase in three months.
Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement from December 2021.Despite the Lunar New Year holiday, BTC price experienced a strong inflow and the price soared above the $52,000 level, before facing some resistance currently ranging between $52,000 and $53,800.The long-awaited Bitcoin spot ETFs approved by the SEC released a tremendous amount of enthusiasm from US investors, especially asset managers who were lacking financial instruments to invest in cryptocurrencies due to the regulations and their investment policy. Although CME launched the Bitcoin Futures in 2017 and Grayscale offered a variety of products linked to cryptocurrencies, the liquidity and the scale of these products were very limited.Bitcoin spot ETFs provided asset managers with an option to invest in Bitcoin with significant liquidity and a large scale of Assets Under Management (AUM). Unlike Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the trust fund before it got converted to spot ETF, the nature of the ETF allows creation/redemption using the underlying asset, which eliminates the price difference between the ETF price and the underlying asset price. One of the differences between investing in Bitcoin itself and ETFs custody of the assets. With the better regulatory environment in the ETF marketplace, ETF investors were more reassured with less risks relating to custody of the assets while being able to gain exposure equivalent to holding Bitcoin.That explains the strong inflows from the Bitcoin spot ETFs and the price action caused by it.However, this morning, Bloomberg reported that Genesis Global Holdco LLC won bankruptcy court permission to sell the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares worth more than $1.3 billion to compensate clients who lent it digital assets.This news could act as a headwind to the recent strong BTC price. When the FTX bankruptcy estate liquidated the $1 billion of GBTC back in January, BTC tumbled from $48,500 to a low of $38,500.Will the sale from Genesis cause the same degree of selloff on the BTC price? The answer is less likely. Here are some of the reasons:1) FTX bankruptcy estate was selling its stake in a rush, clearing its $1 billion position in only 9 trading sessions. Genesis might not be under the same time constraint as the prices are favourable and the momentum is strong.2) The market sentiment was not as bullish as we are right now, getting closer to the 5th halving event in April. Back in January, the market was filled with “buy the rumour, sell the news” sentiment, and the FTX sale further increased pressure on the BTC price.3) The total ETF AUM is now much larger than when the spot ETFs launched on January 11. The larger AUM and a border clientele base on spot ETF provide a stronger ability to cushion the selling pressure. Therefore, our desk expects to see some headwinds on the BTC price due to Genesis’ $1.3 billion sale but not a large-scale correction.
Options Market

The above table shows the at-the-money implied volatility on BTC in the past week. As the BTC price went in one direction, the implied volatility increased as expected. When the underlying price moves in one direction for consecutive days, the risk of any pullback increases, which is reflected in the elevated implied volatility (IV).However, we did not see any large elevated IVs in the mid to long tenors, which tends to imply that options traders have either missed the chance to build their positions and are waiting for better entry levels, or have trimmed their positions along the way up. Either way, it suggests that options traders are not chasing this upward trend.That being said, the current bullish momentum could continue for an extended time. If we see a sharp increase in IVs with a small rally on the underlying price, it could signal that the market sentiment is overextended, and a pullback is down the road.

Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (2024-02-08)US initial jobless claims fell to 218k, down from 227k last week.In January, the German CPI rose by 0.2% month on month, slightly higher than the 0.1% increase in December. On a yearly basis, the German CPI rose 2.9%, a significant decrease from December's 3.7%.On Tuesday (2024-02-13)The US CPI came in higher than expected in January. The CPI increased 3.1% year on year, 0.2% higher than the expected 2.9% increase, and slowed from 3.4% in December. It increased by 0.3% m/m in January, slightly more than the expected 0.2% and more than the 0.2% increase in December.The US core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.9% year on year, exceeding the expected 3.7% increase and matching the reading from last December. It increased by 0.4% monthly, exceeding the expected increase of 0.3%.After the CPI reading was released before the US market opened, risk assets such as US equities and cryptocurrencies experienced an immediate selloff, while the US dollar index ($DXY) rose as rate cut expectations eased. The S&P 500 fell 1.37% on the day, while the Nasdaq fell 1.58% and the Dow Jones fell 1.35%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged 13.64% and closed at a three-month high.The US dollar index rose 0.70% and closed at 104.83. Gold prices fell below $2,000 and closed at $1,991.60.Bitcoin fell 3% immediately following the CPI reading, but recovered gradually during the US session, closing with a loss of less than 1%.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. The POW (Proof-of-Work)  zone saw the highest overall increase in trading volume last week. The soaring BTC price brought in trading demands on Bitcoin ($BTC) itself and Bitcoin Cash ($BCH), with the trading volumes on both coins doubling over the last week.The trading volume in the NFT zone also doubled. SuperVerse ($SUPER) and SuperRare ($RARE) are the two leaders in this category with over 400% and 200% trading volume increase, respectively.The two tokens, Dogecoin ($DOGE) and Ordi ($ORDI), are the main contributors to the 55% volume growth in the Meme zone. The trading volume on both tokens jumped 52% and 82%, respectively. 

Why trade OTC?  
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

To access manual price quotations, you may visit our Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/spot), where you can RFQ (request-for-quote) and trade directly with our OTC trading team via a live chat.

To utilise our Algo orders features, you may visit our BinanceAlgo Orders platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/AlgoTrading). 

For any other inquiries on OTC trading, please reach out to us via our email at trading@binance.com for our trading desk to get in touch with you and get started. 

OTC trades may also be automatically quoted on Binance Convert and via API, offering users a quick and simple way to execute trades across 60,000+ pairs with one simple click. Binance Convert supports over 350 tokens listed on the exchange including fiat pairs. Begin trading from as little as 1 USD. To start, simply navigate to the Binance Convert & Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert), select the coins you wish to trade, preview and confirm the quote with settlement reflecting almost instantly in your wallet balance. For details and access to Binance Convert OTC API, please refer to our Convert Endpoints (https://binance-docs.github.io/apidocs/spot/en/#convert-endpoints) and reach out to us at trading@binance.com if you have any questions or require assistance.

Visit Binance OTC (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for more information on our OTC products and solutions. 

Experience the main benefits of Binance Convert and OTC Trading: 
Fast & Competitive Pricing Instant settlement Widest availability of coins Bespoke service with unique market insights Zero fees and slippage 

Email: trading@binance.com 

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In recent months, $OM has experienced significant bullish momentum. The token has increased in value by 65.7% this week, accompanied by a large increase in trading volume.The rise in $OM 's value follows a DAO proposal to increase staking rewards on MANTRA Finance, the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem powered by MANTRA DAO. The proposal received overwhelming support, with 99.6% of voters backing it, resulting in a significant increase in staked $OM tokens. Chainlink ($LINK ), the largest market capitalization token in the Oracle space, broke through its resistance level and traded above $18 last week. It has been trading in the $13 to $16.5 range since November 2023, and it finally broke the upper resistance level, soaring above $19 after large short positions were liquidated. Currently, it is trading above $18.Terra Luna Classic ($LUNC) had volatile trading sessions over the weekend. The 18% increase followed by an 8% retracement in two days posed significant price risks to traders and investors. 
Overall Market

The above chart shows the BTC price movement starting in 2024.Our desk has identified a strong resistance level in the $43,300 to $44,000 range, as shown in the red area. The BTC price attempted to challenge the resistance level several times last week, but all attempts were rejected. Price rallies typically occur right before the US session begins and fade away after the US session ends. The time pattern suggests that the recent BTC buy flows are primarily driven by inflows from BTC spot ETFs. Meanwhile, our desk noticed that trading volume on the exchange has decreased as we approach the Lunar New Year this Saturday, February 10, 2024. The Lunar New Year is a major festival in many countries and cultures, and a lower trading volume is expected during the holiday season. That being said, we anticipate a consolidation of BTC prices in the coming days before the market finds a direction.Google recently approved the advertising of some cryptocurrency products, such as spot ETFs for Bitcoin. Facebook and Instagram, two of the most popular social media platforms in the United States, are planning to allow businesses to advertise spot Bitcoin ETFs. The change represents a significant step toward greater mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies.

The above chart shows the ETH price movement starting in 2024.Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin in recent days, with the ETH price rising back above $2,300. However, ETH is also encountering resistance between $2,350 and $2,390, as shown in the red zone.The SEC delayed its decision on several Ethereum spot ETF applications last week, as the market expected. Analysts predict the SEC will approve the Ethereum spot ETF in May.The recent increase in the ETH price could be attributed to staking on EigenLayer, an Ethereum-based restaking protocol. EigenLayer's total value locked (TVL) increased by $1.8 billion after the developers removed the upper limit on all pools for various liquid staking tokens. The large increase in EigenLayer's TVL was primarily due to the deposit from Lido's sETH. ETH holders can earn higher rewards by restaking their staked ETH on EigenLayer. The restaking feature encourages ETH holders to stake their ETH with higher rewards while also lowering market supply by reducing the amount of ETH in circulation.
Options Market

The above table shows the at-the-money implied volatility on BTC and ETH options with different expiry dates. Following the recent consolidation of BTC and ETH prices, implied volatility has fallen below 40% on the front end. The IVs for BTC and ETH's seven-day expiry options are 35.16% and 37.88%, respectively. The IVs of long-dated options are around 50%, down from 60% one month ago. Retracements of IVs on BTC and ETH options are consistent with our expectations. We anticipate a slow trading flow over the next week or so during the celebration of the Lunar New Year. Our desk believes the trading flow will recover and the IVs will move higher as the bitcoin halving date approaches, which is expected to be around April 17. 

Macro at a glance 

Last Thursday (2024-02-01)The Eurozone's projected annual CPI growth rate is 2.8% in January 2024, with a projected core CPI growth rate of 3.3%. Both readings exceeded the expected rates of 2.7% and 3.2%, respectively.The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 5.25%, unchanged. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that the central bank was ready to begin easing policy, but only after more evidence that inflation was heading in the right direction.US initial jobless claims increased to 224k last week, exceeding the expected 213k and the previous week's 215k.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI was 49.1 in January, higher than the expected 47.2 and the previous month's 47.1. ISM manufacturing prices increased from 45.2 in December to 52.9 in January. The better-than-expected manufacturing data suggests that US manufacturing business activities are improving as the border economy strengthens.Last Friday (2024-02-02)US nonfarm payrolls increased by 353k in January, far exceeding the expected 187k. In January, average hourly earnings rose by 0.6% on a monthly basis, exceeding the expected 0.3% increase.The US unemployment rate was 3.7% in January, lower than the expected 3.8%.The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll growth and average hourly earnings growth support the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged last Wednesday.On Monday (2024-02-05)The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI was 53.4 in January, higher than the expected 52.0 and the previous month's 50.5. ISM non-manufacturing prices increased from 57.4 in December to 64.0 in January. The better-than-expected data suggests that the US economy is in expansion mode.The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its interest rate at 4.35%, unchanged. However, RBA governor Michele Bullock left the door open for further rate hikes to address the high inflation rate.

Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. The DeFi zone saw the highest overall increase in trading volume last week. The trading volumes of the recently listed Jupiter ($JUP) account for the majority of the increase in this zone.The two tokens with the greatest volume increase in the Launchpad zone were Tokocrypto ($TKO) and TROY ($TROY). Our desk has observed strong trade demand for Tokocrypto over the last two weeks, and its price has risen by more than 14% during that time.In the Layer 1/Layer 2 zone, the decreased volume is primarily due to slower trading activity on large-cap coins. Our desk observes strong trading demand for Nervos Network ($CKB) and Oasis Network ($ROSE ); however, the volume increase was offset by a decrease in volume for other coins. 

Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

To access manual price quotations, you may visit our Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/spot), where you can RFQ (request-for-quote) and trade directly with our OTC trading team via a live chat.

To utilise our Algo orders features, you may visit our BinanceAlgo Orders platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/AlgoTrading). 

For any other inquiries on OTC trading, please reach out to us via our email at trading@binance.com for our trading desk to get in touch with you and get started. 

OTC trades may also be automatically quoted on Binance Convert and via API, offering users a quick and simple way to execute trades across 60,000+ pairs with one simple click. Binance Convert supports over 350 tokens listed on the exchange including fiat pairs. Begin trading from as little as 1 USD. To start, simply navigate to the Binance Convert & Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert), select the coins you wish to trade, preview and confirm the quote with settlement reflecting almost instantly in your wallet balance. For details and access to Binance Convert OTC API, please refer to our Convert Endpoints (https://binance-docs.github.io/apidocs/spot/en/#convert-endpoints) and reach out to us at trading@binance.com if you have any questions or require assistance.

Visit Binance OTC (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for more information on our OTC products and solutions. 

Experience the main benefits of Binance Convert and OTC Trading: 
Fast & Competitive Pricing Instant settlement Widest availability of coins Bespoke service with unique market insights Zero fees and slippage 

Email: trading@binance.com 

Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!