Conclusions:

1. In the absence of a stop, you unknowingly get into a very doubtful situation where the chances of a plus tend to zero (many times faster than in roulette)

2. With an infinite number of positions you will always be bankrupt, because that 0.95 or 0.91 must be exponentiated with each new open position

3. The situation with negative expectation is valid only when stops are not placed; if stops are placed, then theoretically we return to the game with zero sum, but in practice the situation is also ‘a little’ different, but this is another story

4. Exchanges benefit from the absence of stops and increased leverage on your trades. That's why exchanges get maximum income and show special generosity in the trend, as liquidation amounts are in the billions every day and that's why exchanges reduce their staff in a bear cycle, as there are practically no liquidations

5. Be smarter, calculate everything down to the last detail, put stops and preferably not short ones, so that bots do not follow you all the time

6. When calculating, we took as a margin of error both commissions and funding, but in the end they also play against your mathematical expectation

7. If you don't understand all the calculations, go back to the beginning and go through the whole thing again. Becoming smarter in the game is worth the time spent

P.S. I wish you a profitable week. Take care of yourself and your deposits
$BTC $ETH $SOL

‘A game with negative mathematical expectation or The worst secret in the exchanges closet’ (part 2)

If you look closely at crypto trading, you can see with the naked eye that 90% of the total volume is taken up by futures (derivatives), the so-called leveraged play. If we add margin trading to this furnace, the volume reaches 95% => we conclude that this is practically the whole market

In the previous article we have learnt that spot trading is a ‘zero-sum game’, now let's see how things are with leverage. For example, let's take B********* exchange (you can open any exchange and the indicators will be the same, more or less. From the strong deviations I can single out only the late FTX, there was a terrible situation there)

All instruments will be taken with the same x10 leverage (standard trading of day traders) and additionally I'll note that the figures of negative mathematical expectation worsen exponentially with increasing leverage. From the factual calculations let's find patterns and make appropriate conclusions

You don't need to win the National Mathematics Olympiad to understand that liquidation at the zero sum game with leverage x10 should be at -10% of the price for each instrument. Let's see what we get in practice. For calculations we used data not from calculators, but from randomly opened positions for small amounts, so as not to have any load and the system didn't perceive them as a potential slippage. Mathematical expectation = (actual liquidation / calculated liquidation)*100%

Data points are from last year trades for clarity

BTC/USDT x10 long
Opening: 29414.4
-10% = 26472.96
Liquidation: 26620.1 (actual 9.5%)
Expectation = (9.5%/10%)*100% = 95%

ETH/USDT x10 long
Opening: 1852.08
-10% = 1666.87
Liquidation: 1676.14 (actual 9.5%)
Expectation = (9.5%/10%)*100% = 95%

XRP/USDT x10 long
Opening: 0.6293
-10% = 0.5663
Liquidation: 0.5711 (actual 9.25%)
Expectation = (9.25%/10%)*100% = 92.5%

DOT/USDT x10 long
Opening: 5.026
-10% = 4.5234
Liquidation: 4.574 (actual 9.1%)
Expectation = (9.1%/10%)*100% = 91%

EOS/USDT x10 long
Opening: 0.721
-10% = 0.649
Liquidation: 0.657 (actual 9.1%)
Expectation = (9.1%/10%)*100% = 91%

When increasing leverage and going into less liquid instruments, the situation is even more tragic and mathematical expectation falls below 80%. Let's get back to the previous post and Casino games (Roulette 97.2%, Baccarat = 95%).
$BTC $ETH $SOL

‘A game with negative mathematical expectation or The worst secret in the exchange's closet’ (part 1)

Since I've spent a lot of time studying game theory, and I am a Gambler by nature (I try to keep myself within limits, but drowning in the game, I've tossed lots for seven-digit sums $), so the topic came easily to me

I should note that 99% of traders do not pay attention to it and don't know what I'll describe in details now, and exchanges in their turn keep this secret behind seven seals and at any dialogue at any level, it is only worth starting a conversation on this topic, as the leadership and management change their faces, blush and deny by all means, and the proposal to make simple mathematical calculations is received with hostility

Before we start to study and calculate in detail, we need to define the terms and give a full explanation of each of them:

🤨 A zero-sum game is a situation in which one party's gain depends on the other party's loss, and the net change in wealth is zero

Let me explain with the most obvious life example - ‘Poker’ (and it's conditional on the game being played between players). You sit down at a table, let's say 5 people with $10,000 (totaling $50,000) and at the end everyone's take out will total $50,000

All trading on the spot goes at the same zero sum (if you don't take into account commissions - quite a fair income for the exchange, if anything), i.e. all purchases are someone else's sales and vice versa. In the end, most of the market remains out of business still, because there are Insiders, Manipulators, Market Makers - call it what you want, but this is the class of people who play with the marked cards and essentially predetermine the growth and trends for the season, but that's another story, today is not about that

🤨 The mathematical expectation (expected value) is the average outcome of a game given an infinite number of attempts

Any game in the casino is calculated from the negative mathematical expectation, for example roulette has the highest rate for players and it's not difficult to calculate it: (36/37)x100%= 97.3%. Quite a high probability %, isn't it, but on that negligible 2.7% deviation, the casino wins fabulous money all over the World. Of course, we're talking about fair play scenario, because there are also ‘Tricksters’ let's say, but that's another story as well

The meaning of what is required to understand: At the slightest deviation of mathematical expectation from 100% and large turnovers - the amount of players' losses can be counted in any figures

In general, if we talk about the mathematical expectation in casinos, it will vary within 93% (keep this value in mind, we'll come back to it later)

* If you use or copy material, please indicate authorship, respect yourself and intellectual labor.
$BTC $ETH $SOL

$ETH
#Ethereum #Whales 🐳🐳🐳 Wake up: Is it true or not that they are Trading?
Late on-chain information demonstrates a flood in action among Ethereum whales, flagging huge developments on the lookout. As per IntoTheBlock, the quantity of huge exchanges, esteemed at more than $100,000, has pointedly expanded, proposing elevated commitment from these compelling financial backers. This increase concurs with hypothesis encompassing the possible endorsement of ETH spot trade exchanged reserves (ETFs), prompting a quick ascent in Ethereum's cost to around $3,800.
Given the size of these exchanges, which are normally connected with whale substances, their aggregate activities might actually affect market elements, bringing about expanded unpredictability for ETH. In any case, whether this unpredictability prompts trading relies upon the whales' activities. Examination of Enormous Holders' netflow information shows a pattern towards gathering, recommending that new whale movement has involved net-purchasing.
In the days to come, further market momentum could be bolstered if large corporations maintain this trend. At this point, Ethereum is exchanging around $3,750, mirroring a remarkable increment of more than 26% in the previous week.
Source - newsbtc.com
#ETHETFS #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

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Confirm Payment Amount: Make sure the payment amount has been gotten in your required bank account and affirmed by your bank prior to delivering any cryptographic money.
Make use of the Binance Escrow Service: Use Binance's escrow administration to ensure that the both the parties satisfy their commitments. 🛡️
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Announcing Tricks/Scams:
In the event that you experience any dubious action or succumb to a trick/scam, report it to Binance support right away. Giving itemized data and proof can assist Binance with making a move against the trickster/scammer and potentially recuperate/recover your assets. Remaining educated and careful is vital to staying away from tricks on any P2P exchanging stage.
#P2PScamAwareness #P2PScame #P2PScamPrevention
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