LIVEBitcoin Price Analysis: When to Expect the Post-Halving Rally?
Bitcoin Price Analysis: On April 19th, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency market cap completed a major milestone called ‘halving’ — a phenomenon where the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is cut in half. This reduction from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins per block in this fourth aims to control inflation and mimic the scarcity-driven value increase similar to precious metals. Historically, halvings have preceded substantial rallies in Bitcoin’s price, as reduced supply and ongoing demand may push prices higher. What to expect after the Fourth Halving?
While the neutral candle formation in the daily chart shows a lack of initiation from buyers or sellers, such behaviors are common before the post-halving rally begins.
The first Bitcoin halving took place on November 28, 2012, yet the sustainable rally didn’t begin until about 40 days later, in early January 2013.
If the pattern holds true, the Bitcoin price may need 2-3 months to stabilize before initiating the post-halving rally.
According to on-chain data provider Spot On Chain, Bitcoin historically doesn’t experience immediate price spikes post-halving. Instead, new all-time highs have tended to occur 6 to 12 months after the event. The first event in November 2012 saw Bitcoin’s price rise from $12 to over $1,000 by late 2023.
In July 2016’s second halving, the price climbed from around $650 to almost $20,000 by Dec 2017. The third halving in May 2020 preceded a surge to a $69,000 ATH by November 2021. This cyclical trend suggests potential for upward movement post-halving and a possible time period for new tops in BTC price.
Technical Indicator
Exponential Moving Average: The BTC price above 100-and-200-day EMA indicates the broader trend remains bullish.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence: A MACD and signal in a bullish crossover state highlights the recovery sentiment returning to this asset.
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