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Will the rise and fall of the cryptocurrency circle really scare people to death?
Current employment situation of college students:
Girls do live broadcasts, and order takeout when they are hungry.
Boys deliver takeout, and watch live broadcasts when they are tired.
Current situation of contemporary cryptocurrency traders:
Order a girl when you make money, and deliver takeout when you lose money
Take the most classic luna as an example. You have 10,000 luna. When you went to bed yesterday, it was worth 1 million u. When you woke up, it became 700,000 u. You said that I have been in the cryptocurrency circle for so long, and it only retreated by 30%, and ust only decoupled by 10%. I believe DoKwon, so I went to bed boldly. The next day, you woke up and your assets became 10,000 U. You thought that it had fallen by 99%, so it should have fallen no further. I bought it now and it rose to 10 U, which is ten times the price. So you sold everything you had and raised 200,000 U to buy 200,000 Luna. You couldn't sleep at this time. You kept staring at it and hoped that it would rise back, but you could only watch the price go from 1 to 0.1 and then to 0.000001 and finally be delisted. In the end, in three days, your 1.2 million U assets shrank to the cost of a breakfast. You completely collapsed.
In addition to Luna, the currency circle is very different from the traditional financial market. First, it is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Second, there is no price limit. Third, the entry threshold is extremely low. Fourth, there are many people who abuse leverage. Fifth, the rise and fall of altcoins is boundless. Especially when the third, fourth and fifth points are combined, it is normal to get rich overnight and go bankrupt overnight. Please use leverage with caution, everyone. You think your five-fold leverage is already very low, but you don’t know that there are days every year when the fluctuation exceeds 20%. Because of the leverage, the more it falls, the harder it is to stop, which eventually leads to a series of liquidations. Why can ETH reach more than 800 in this bear market? Isn’t it because the liquidation price on the chain is clear and there is money to throw it down to pick up the cheap corpses?
Current employment situation of college students:
Girls do live broadcasts, and order takeout when they are hungry.
Boys deliver takeout, and watch live broadcasts when they are tired.
Current situation of contemporary cryptocurrency traders:
Order a girl when you make money, and deliver takeout when you lose money
Take the most classic luna as an example. You have 10,000 luna. When you went to bed yesterday, it was worth 1 million u. When you woke up, it became 700,000 u. You said that I have been in the cryptocurrency circle for so long, and it only retreated by 30%, and ust only decoupled by 10%. I believe DoKwon, so I went to bed boldly. The next day, you woke up and your assets became 10,000 U. You thought that it had fallen by 99%, so it should have fallen no further. I bought it now and it rose to 10 U, which is ten times the price. So you sold everything you had and raised 200,000 U to buy 200,000 Luna. You couldn't sleep at this time. You kept staring at it and hoped that it would rise back, but you could only watch the price go from 1 to 0.1 and then to 0.000001 and finally be delisted. In the end, in three days, your 1.2 million U assets shrank to the cost of a breakfast. You completely collapsed.
In addition to Luna, the currency circle is very different from the traditional financial market. First, it is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Second, there is no price limit. Third, the entry threshold is extremely low. Fourth, there are many people who abuse leverage. Fifth, the rise and fall of altcoins is boundless. Especially when the third, fourth and fifth points are combined, it is normal to get rich overnight and go bankrupt overnight. Please use leverage with caution, everyone. You think your five-fold leverage is already very low, but you don’t know that there are days every year when the fluctuation exceeds 20%. Because of the leverage, the more it falls, the harder it is to stop, which eventually leads to a series of liquidations. Why can ETH reach more than 800 in this bear market? Isn’t it because the liquidation price on the chain is clear and there is money to throw it down to pick up the cheap corpses?
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I made a lot of money in the cryptocurrency circle. If I withdraw cash, will the bank ask about the source of the money?
If the amount is too large, they will definitely ask. I have been asked 3 times.
I started trading on BitChina, but now this platform is gone. At that time, Bitcoin was only 2,500. At that time, I was doing e-commerce and had a lot of cash on hand.
Later, it rose to more than 7,000 unexpectedly, and I withdrew money. At that time, the bank was not strictly controlled, and I asked. I answered the phone and asked a lot of questions and talked for a long time, such as how many acres of land there were in the field, how many cows there were in the field, what was my surname, where I came from, and talked about it for a long time.
In the end, he said: Sir, we have a very good financial product, you can consider it. . . I fainted.
Later, he was not so polite. I heard that there were many frozen cards, so I took a lot of precautions. My card was frozen once in recent years. I just went to the counter to unfreeze it.
In fact, to sum up, as long as you don't touch USDT, there is basically nothing to worry about. There is a lot of black money in it. Funds must be cooled. Another is that it is best to convert it into US dollars, and then directly remit the US dollars to the foreign currency account. This is the best. Because it has been separated from the Chinese financial system, and the domestic and foreign financial systems are isolated, there are additional benefits during the dollar appreciation cycle. I have made more than a dozen large payments. Nothing happened. You can also spend overseas directly.
There is another secret to tell you: the foreign trade company account can be stuck with foreign exchange control bugs. So it is much more convenient to buy a mature foreign trade company and speculate in cryptocurrencies. You can also move bricks across borders
If the amount is too large, they will definitely ask. I have been asked 3 times.
I started trading on BitChina, but now this platform is gone. At that time, Bitcoin was only 2,500. At that time, I was doing e-commerce and had a lot of cash on hand.
Later, it rose to more than 7,000 unexpectedly, and I withdrew money. At that time, the bank was not strictly controlled, and I asked. I answered the phone and asked a lot of questions and talked for a long time, such as how many acres of land there were in the field, how many cows there were in the field, what was my surname, where I came from, and talked about it for a long time.
In the end, he said: Sir, we have a very good financial product, you can consider it. . . I fainted.
Later, he was not so polite. I heard that there were many frozen cards, so I took a lot of precautions. My card was frozen once in recent years. I just went to the counter to unfreeze it.
In fact, to sum up, as long as you don't touch USDT, there is basically nothing to worry about. There is a lot of black money in it. Funds must be cooled. Another is that it is best to convert it into US dollars, and then directly remit the US dollars to the foreign currency account. This is the best. Because it has been separated from the Chinese financial system, and the domestic and foreign financial systems are isolated, there are additional benefits during the dollar appreciation cycle. I have made more than a dozen large payments. Nothing happened. You can also spend overseas directly.
There is another secret to tell you: the foreign trade company account can be stuck with foreign exchange control bugs. So it is much more convenient to buy a mature foreign trade company and speculate in cryptocurrencies. You can also move bricks across borders
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Has the cryptocurrency market seen a big surge due to the US rate cut?
Since the surge in ETFs at the beginning of the year, it has been hovering around 60,000. After the conference, it began to plummet due to the uncertainty of the election, and the so-called "VC coins" have plummeted even more.
Which institutions are buying ETFs? Many sovereign funds, public funds and family trusts have bought certain assets into BTC.
First, the Fed's rate cuts are expected to depreciate the US dollar. Bitcoin has proven its digital gold properties in the 15 years since its birth and can outperform inflation;
Second, it is endorsed by the top institutions such as BlackRock and Vanguard. If the currency is really stolen, it has sufficient compensation capacity and will not go bankrupt directly like FTX.
So far this year, most altcoins have not been able to outperform the big pie, accounting for as much as 60% of the market value; and old money only believes in BTC, and the endorsement of large institutions has close to unlimited solvency.
Who is the super institution in the cryptocurrency circle? There is no doubt that it is the largest institution in the universe, An An. CZ was fined more than 4 billion US dollars by the United States, but it did not hurt him. You should know that 4 billion has exceeded the FDV of many project parties. Although Anan’s current listing strategy has also listed many VC coins, it is true that as long as a coin is announced to be listed on Anan, it will definitely rise sharply. NERIO is a living example.
Now the popularity of NERIO has begun to decline, so there must be continuous output of projects to make the market, so that the price of the currency can be kept stable, but there is no hope if the market is not good.
Fortunately, after Anan accepted the US regulatory review, it proved that there was no misappropriation of user funds. CZ also confirmed this, and Anan will have a brand new start. Therefore, before starting to pledge or invest in a project, research is still very important, and seeing the "ingredients" of a project clearly will play a decisive role in whether it can make money in the later stage.
Since the surge in ETFs at the beginning of the year, it has been hovering around 60,000. After the conference, it began to plummet due to the uncertainty of the election, and the so-called "VC coins" have plummeted even more.
Which institutions are buying ETFs? Many sovereign funds, public funds and family trusts have bought certain assets into BTC.
First, the Fed's rate cuts are expected to depreciate the US dollar. Bitcoin has proven its digital gold properties in the 15 years since its birth and can outperform inflation;
Second, it is endorsed by the top institutions such as BlackRock and Vanguard. If the currency is really stolen, it has sufficient compensation capacity and will not go bankrupt directly like FTX.
So far this year, most altcoins have not been able to outperform the big pie, accounting for as much as 60% of the market value; and old money only believes in BTC, and the endorsement of large institutions has close to unlimited solvency.
Who is the super institution in the cryptocurrency circle? There is no doubt that it is the largest institution in the universe, An An. CZ was fined more than 4 billion US dollars by the United States, but it did not hurt him. You should know that 4 billion has exceeded the FDV of many project parties. Although Anan’s current listing strategy has also listed many VC coins, it is true that as long as a coin is announced to be listed on Anan, it will definitely rise sharply. NERIO is a living example.
Now the popularity of NERIO has begun to decline, so there must be continuous output of projects to make the market, so that the price of the currency can be kept stable, but there is no hope if the market is not good.
Fortunately, after Anan accepted the US regulatory review, it proved that there was no misappropriation of user funds. CZ also confirmed this, and Anan will have a brand new start. Therefore, before starting to pledge or invest in a project, research is still very important, and seeing the "ingredients" of a project clearly will play a decisive role in whether it can make money in the later stage.
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The two most important events next week:
Retail investors' fantasies are:
- Harris elected, Bitcoin plummets 📉 50%
- Trump elected, Bitcoin surges 📈 100,000
1. The election results on November 5 may be announced that night. Remember the last time Trump was elected? The market went from limit up to limit down, and many people were wiped out in just one day.
2. The interest rate meeting from November 6 to November 7. If rates are cut, it may lead to a wave of rising prices; if not, it is likely to continue along the original trend. According to non-farm payroll data, this interest rate meeting is expected to cut by 25 basis points. However, if we combine these two events, the situation becomes complicated, and there may be significant volatility.
The current structure of the Bitcoin market is clear. Whether Trump or Harris is elected, it will not disrupt the market structure. Traders are responsible for the market trend and maximizing their own profits, not for Trump or Harris.
Therefore, after the election results are announced at noon on the 6th, the market's volatility may be far below most people's expectations. This has been verified countless times, such as on the night of interest rate cuts, or when Trump attended the Bitcoin conference, etc.
The most likely scenario is that after the election results are announced, there will be a spike up or down. Then the market will continue to move as it was. The Bitcoin market structure has gone through a series of actions over the past six months, including sharp declines, consolidation, forced buying, and accumulation, and it will not be disrupted by a single event.
The benefit of the U.S. election for traders is the ability to utilize it both positively and negatively, increasing volatility and market divergence, providing stories to tell. The U.S. election is the most advantageous tool for traders to tell stories after ETFs.
Retail investors' fantasies are:
- Harris elected, Bitcoin plummets 📉 50%
- Trump elected, Bitcoin surges 📈 100,000
1. The election results on November 5 may be announced that night. Remember the last time Trump was elected? The market went from limit up to limit down, and many people were wiped out in just one day.
2. The interest rate meeting from November 6 to November 7. If rates are cut, it may lead to a wave of rising prices; if not, it is likely to continue along the original trend. According to non-farm payroll data, this interest rate meeting is expected to cut by 25 basis points. However, if we combine these two events, the situation becomes complicated, and there may be significant volatility.
The current structure of the Bitcoin market is clear. Whether Trump or Harris is elected, it will not disrupt the market structure. Traders are responsible for the market trend and maximizing their own profits, not for Trump or Harris.
Therefore, after the election results are announced at noon on the 6th, the market's volatility may be far below most people's expectations. This has been verified countless times, such as on the night of interest rate cuts, or when Trump attended the Bitcoin conference, etc.
The most likely scenario is that after the election results are announced, there will be a spike up or down. Then the market will continue to move as it was. The Bitcoin market structure has gone through a series of actions over the past six months, including sharp declines, consolidation, forced buying, and accumulation, and it will not be disrupted by a single event.
The benefit of the U.S. election for traders is the ability to utilize it both positively and negatively, increasing volatility and market divergence, providing stories to tell. The U.S. election is the most advantageous tool for traders to tell stories after ETFs.
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11.5 Afternoon Analysis
After the morning strategy was given, the market has currently risen to the entry point we provided. From the candlestick chart, it can be seen that Bitcoin is currently oscillating around 68700, while Ethereum is oscillating around 2430. There seems to be some upward pressure, so in the afternoon we continue to be bearish. The entry point is set, and the plan is to open and wait for good news.
Trading Suggestions
Bitcoin short near 69000-69500
Target 68000-67200 (stop loss 500)
Ethereum short near 2460-2500
Target 2400-2370 (stop loss 38)
After the morning strategy was given, the market has currently risen to the entry point we provided. From the candlestick chart, it can be seen that Bitcoin is currently oscillating around 68700, while Ethereum is oscillating around 2430. There seems to be some upward pressure, so in the afternoon we continue to be bearish. The entry point is set, and the plan is to open and wait for good news.
Trading Suggestions
Bitcoin short near 69000-69500
Target 68000-67200 (stop loss 500)
Ethereum short near 2460-2500
Target 2400-2370 (stop loss 38)
LIVE白璐-财经
--
11.5 Morning Thoughts
Midnight thoughts accurately predicted that Bitcoin would decline again
The lowest price fell to around 66800
In the short term, a clear downward trend has formed, with continuous re-tests on the daily level breaking below the middle track support and showing a significant continuation of weak patterns
In the short term, the 4-hour chart shows a weak bearish trend, with previous rebound space being retracted
Currently, all indicators show a bearish downward trend, so in such a weak structure, it is advisable to short on any rebound
Operational Suggestions
Short Bitcoin around 68500-69000
Target around 67400-68900 (Stop loss 500 points)
Short Ethereum around 2430-2470
Target around 2370-2340 (Stop loss 30 points)
Midnight thoughts accurately predicted that Bitcoin would decline again
The lowest price fell to around 66800
In the short term, a clear downward trend has formed, with continuous re-tests on the daily level breaking below the middle track support and showing a significant continuation of weak patterns
In the short term, the 4-hour chart shows a weak bearish trend, with previous rebound space being retracted
Currently, all indicators show a bearish downward trend, so in such a weak structure, it is advisable to short on any rebound
Operational Suggestions
Short Bitcoin around 68500-69000
Target around 67400-68900 (Stop loss 500 points)
Short Ethereum around 2430-2470
Target around 2370-2340 (Stop loss 30 points)
See original
11.5 Morning Thoughts
Midnight thoughts accurately predicted that Bitcoin would decline again
The lowest price fell to around 66800
In the short term, a clear downward trend has formed, with continuous re-tests on the daily level breaking below the middle track support and showing a significant continuation of weak patterns
In the short term, the 4-hour chart shows a weak bearish trend, with previous rebound space being retracted
Currently, all indicators show a bearish downward trend, so in such a weak structure, it is advisable to short on any rebound
Operational Suggestions
Short Bitcoin around 68500-69000
Target around 67400-68900 (Stop loss 500 points)
Short Ethereum around 2430-2470
Target around 2370-2340 (Stop loss 30 points)
Midnight thoughts accurately predicted that Bitcoin would decline again
The lowest price fell to around 66800
In the short term, a clear downward trend has formed, with continuous re-tests on the daily level breaking below the middle track support and showing a significant continuation of weak patterns
In the short term, the 4-hour chart shows a weak bearish trend, with previous rebound space being retracted
Currently, all indicators show a bearish downward trend, so in such a weak structure, it is advisable to short on any rebound
Operational Suggestions
Short Bitcoin around 68500-69000
Target around 67400-68900 (Stop loss 500 points)
Short Ethereum around 2430-2470
Target around 2370-2340 (Stop loss 30 points)
LIVE白璐-财经
--
Midnight Silk Dew has once again been perfectly validated, accurately predicted,
secured over 2000 points of space for the big pie
secured nearly 100 points of space for the auntie
secured over 2000 points of space for the big pie
secured nearly 100 points of space for the auntie
See original
Midnight Silk Dew has once again been perfectly validated, accurately predicted,
secured over 2000 points of space for the big pie
secured nearly 100 points of space for the auntie
secured over 2000 points of space for the big pie
secured nearly 100 points of space for the auntie
LIVE白璐-财经
--
11.5 Midnight Thoughts
11.4 Daily Market Movement, perfectly achieving over 1000 points for Bitcoin, with Ethereum near 60 points
Today's highest point rebounded to around 69200, followed by a continuous decline, currently fluctuating around 67700. With the election approaching, the market is repairing and gaining momentum. We should not blindly follow a one-sided trend, but rather go with the flow or engage in range trading.
Trading Suggestions
Short Bitcoin near 68200-68700
Target 67100-66600 (with a stop loss of 500 points)
Short Ethereum near 2450-2480
Target 2390-2360 (with a stop loss of 30 points)
11.4 Daily Market Movement, perfectly achieving over 1000 points for Bitcoin, with Ethereum near 60 points
Today's highest point rebounded to around 69200, followed by a continuous decline, currently fluctuating around 67700. With the election approaching, the market is repairing and gaining momentum. We should not blindly follow a one-sided trend, but rather go with the flow or engage in range trading.
Trading Suggestions
Short Bitcoin near 68200-68700
Target 67100-66600 (with a stop loss of 500 points)
Short Ethereum near 2450-2480
Target 2390-2360 (with a stop loss of 30 points)
See original
11.5 Midnight Thoughts
11.4 Daily Market Movement, perfectly achieving over 1000 points for Bitcoin, with Ethereum near 60 points
Today's highest point rebounded to around 69200, followed by a continuous decline, currently fluctuating around 67700. With the election approaching, the market is repairing and gaining momentum. We should not blindly follow a one-sided trend, but rather go with the flow or engage in range trading.
Trading Suggestions
Short Bitcoin near 68200-68700
Target 67100-66600 (with a stop loss of 500 points)
Short Ethereum near 2450-2480
Target 2390-2360 (with a stop loss of 30 points)
11.4 Daily Market Movement, perfectly achieving over 1000 points for Bitcoin, with Ethereum near 60 points
Today's highest point rebounded to around 69200, followed by a continuous decline, currently fluctuating around 67700. With the election approaching, the market is repairing and gaining momentum. We should not blindly follow a one-sided trend, but rather go with the flow or engage in range trading.
Trading Suggestions
Short Bitcoin near 68200-68700
Target 67100-66600 (with a stop loss of 500 points)
Short Ethereum near 2450-2480
Target 2390-2360 (with a stop loss of 30 points)
See original
Accurate prediction, perfect strike, Da Bing gained over 1,000 points of space,
Auntie took nearly 40 points of space, easily collected 🌾
Auntie took nearly 40 points of space, easily collected 🌾
LIVE白璐-财经
--
11.14 Evening Thoughts
Currently, there is not much volatility. Tomorrow is the election, and today has been a period of oscillation and correction.
Now, before the major news comes in, all technical analysis seems to be irrelevant. The main focus is still on the impact of market sentiment,
If Trump loses, certain projects related to him will definitely be impacted to some extent. The overall direction afterwards will depend on the results announced.
In intraday trading, we are still in a downward trend, without any breakout of the pattern. If there is a breakout, one can go long; if not, one should follow the trend.
Trading Suggestions
Bitcoin: Short near 69300-69800
Target: Around 68300-67800 (with a stop loss of 500)
Ether: Short near 2500-2520
Target: Around 2420-2450 (with a stop loss of 30)
Currently, there is not much volatility. Tomorrow is the election, and today has been a period of oscillation and correction.
Now, before the major news comes in, all technical analysis seems to be irrelevant. The main focus is still on the impact of market sentiment,
If Trump loses, certain projects related to him will definitely be impacted to some extent. The overall direction afterwards will depend on the results announced.
In intraday trading, we are still in a downward trend, without any breakout of the pattern. If there is a breakout, one can go long; if not, one should follow the trend.
Trading Suggestions
Bitcoin: Short near 69300-69800
Target: Around 68300-67800 (with a stop loss of 500)
Ether: Short near 2500-2520
Target: Around 2420-2450 (with a stop loss of 30)
See original
Don't overthink the market, Teacher Bai Lu's precise predictions, Si Lu provided in advance, easy layout, perfect gains 🥩, have you eaten?
LIVE白璐-财经
--
Evening silk dew was given in advance, the market perfectly reached the entry point we provided, the layout is open, waiting for the flowers to bloom.
See original
Evening silk dew was given in advance, the market perfectly reached the entry point we provided, the layout is open, waiting for the flowers to bloom.
LIVE白璐-财经
--
11.14 Evening Thoughts
Currently, there is not much volatility. Tomorrow is the election, and today has been a period of oscillation and correction.
Now, before the major news comes in, all technical analysis seems to be irrelevant. The main focus is still on the impact of market sentiment,
If Trump loses, certain projects related to him will definitely be impacted to some extent. The overall direction afterwards will depend on the results announced.
In intraday trading, we are still in a downward trend, without any breakout of the pattern. If there is a breakout, one can go long; if not, one should follow the trend.
Trading Suggestions
Bitcoin: Short near 69300-69800
Target: Around 68300-67800 (with a stop loss of 500)
Ether: Short near 2500-2520
Target: Around 2420-2450 (with a stop loss of 30)
Currently, there is not much volatility. Tomorrow is the election, and today has been a period of oscillation and correction.
Now, before the major news comes in, all technical analysis seems to be irrelevant. The main focus is still on the impact of market sentiment,
If Trump loses, certain projects related to him will definitely be impacted to some extent. The overall direction afterwards will depend on the results announced.
In intraday trading, we are still in a downward trend, without any breakout of the pattern. If there is a breakout, one can go long; if not, one should follow the trend.
Trading Suggestions
Bitcoin: Short near 69300-69800
Target: Around 68300-67800 (with a stop loss of 500)
Ether: Short near 2500-2520
Target: Around 2420-2450 (with a stop loss of 30)
See original
The midday thoughts were given in advance, and the market trend followed perfectly, perfectly hitting the target level set by Teacher Bai Lu. Enjoying a nice meal 🥩
LIVE白璐-财经
--
11.4 Afternoon Thoughts
We continue to look bearish, currently rebounding to around 69000, fluctuating for repair, seemingly building momentum for the bears.
Trading suggestion: Short around 69600-70000
Target: 68500-68000 (Stop loss 500 points)
Auntie: Short around 2500-2580
Target: 2420-2390 (Stop loss 30 points)
We continue to look bearish, currently rebounding to around 69000, fluctuating for repair, seemingly building momentum for the bears.
Trading suggestion: Short around 69600-70000
Target: 68500-68000 (Stop loss 500 points)
Auntie: Short around 2500-2580
Target: 2420-2390 (Stop loss 30 points)
See original
What impact do the four U.S. elections have on the crypto market?
Three months before the 2024 U.S. election, the price of $BTC plummeted to $49,000 on August 5, but on October 7, it began a new round of rising.
Three months before the 2016 U.S. election, the price of $BTC suffered a significant decline, dropping from $750 to a low of $500, a decrease of over 30%. It then bottomed out and started a bull market.
Two months before the 2020 election, the $BTC market took a sharp turn downward, with a price drop of about 16%, falling from $12,000 to about $10,000, and then entered a long period of consolidation. It began to rebound at a critical point before the election, continuing to gain momentum, and by May 2021, the price surged to nearly $60,000.
In the 2012 U.S. election, 80 days before the election, BTC experienced a drastic drop, reaching as high as 75%. However, after the election, it entered a phase of crazy increases.
Three months before the 2024 U.S. election, the price of $BTC plummeted to $49,000 on August 5, but on October 7, it began a new round of rising.
Three months before the 2016 U.S. election, the price of $BTC suffered a significant decline, dropping from $750 to a low of $500, a decrease of over 30%. It then bottomed out and started a bull market.
Two months before the 2020 election, the $BTC market took a sharp turn downward, with a price drop of about 16%, falling from $12,000 to about $10,000, and then entered a long period of consolidation. It began to rebound at a critical point before the election, continuing to gain momentum, and by May 2021, the price surged to nearly $60,000.
In the 2012 U.S. election, 80 days before the election, BTC experienced a drastic drop, reaching as high as 75%. However, after the election, it entered a phase of crazy increases.
See original
Analyst: Bitcoin May Significantly Rebound and Break $100,000 After the U.S. Election
BlockBeats News, on November 4, CoinDesk Senior Analyst James Van Straten stated, "As we await the results of the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, the cryptocurrency market may remain volatile. In the short term, this could affect the price trends of cryptocurrencies. However, once things stabilize, if the previous election patterns repeat, Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a significant rebound. Bitcoin was created in 2009 and is facing its fourth U.S. election. Data shows that after the last three elections, Bitcoin has always rebounded and has never dropped back to the price on election day. If this trend occurs again, the price of BTC should peak in about a year. If history can guide us, Bitcoin has the potential to break $100,000 after the U.S. election. Bitcoin is currently undervalued compared to previous cycles. This is true whether viewed from the cycle low in November 2022 or from the mining reward halving in April. In fact, this is the worst performing one in the halving cycle, with Bitcoin's price only 7% higher than at the halving, which further supports the theory of diminishing returns."
BlockBeats News, on November 4, CoinDesk Senior Analyst James Van Straten stated, "As we await the results of the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, the cryptocurrency market may remain volatile. In the short term, this could affect the price trends of cryptocurrencies. However, once things stabilize, if the previous election patterns repeat, Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a significant rebound. Bitcoin was created in 2009 and is facing its fourth U.S. election. Data shows that after the last three elections, Bitcoin has always rebounded and has never dropped back to the price on election day. If this trend occurs again, the price of BTC should peak in about a year. If history can guide us, Bitcoin has the potential to break $100,000 after the U.S. election. Bitcoin is currently undervalued compared to previous cycles. This is true whether viewed from the cycle low in November 2022 or from the mining reward halving in April. In fact, this is the worst performing one in the halving cycle, with Bitcoin's price only 7% higher than at the halving, which further supports the theory of diminishing returns."
See original
History is always surprisingly similar, and there is a special connection between Bitcoin and the U.S. elections!
2012 U.S. Election: Bitcoin plummeted 75% 80 days before the election. After the election, it began a crazy surge!
2016 U.S. Election: Three months before the election, Bitcoin's price fell from about $750 to a low of $500, a decline of over 30%. It also started a rebound bull market.
2020 U.S. Election: In the two months prior, Bitcoin dropped about 16%, from $12,000 to around $10,000, and then entered a phase of consolidation until a rebound occurred at a critical moment before the election. By May 2021, it shot up to $60,000!
2024 U.S. Election: Three months before the election, a plunge on August 5th to $49,000, and a new round of highs began on October 7th.
Conclusion: By looking at history, we can understand the rise and fall! In hindsight, what seems inevitable was always inconspicuous at the time.
The election results will be out the day after tomorrow.
If Trump wins, the crypto market may jump in the short term; if Harris wins, the crypto market may fall in the short term, both could influence the market direction for two months. In the long run, if Trump wins, BTC could rise to $90,000 - $100,000, and after a shake at $70,000 - $90,000, it may reach new highs; if Harris wins, it might hover at $50,000 - $70,000 before a slow bull market exceeds $100,000, due to differing inflation expectations of the two parties. The interest groups behind Harris will flood the market, which is good for the crypto space. Currently, Polymarket shows Trump's approval at 58%, Harris at 42%, but in polls, Harris is slightly ahead, so the result is uncertain. Now is the best time to hold onto Bitcoin. Institutions are buying aggressively, and demand exceeds supply; on-chain data indicates a continuation of the bull market trend. There might be a slight downturn in the short term due to the reduced likelihood of Trump winning, but the medium to long-term outlook remains positive.
2012 U.S. Election: Bitcoin plummeted 75% 80 days before the election. After the election, it began a crazy surge!
2016 U.S. Election: Three months before the election, Bitcoin's price fell from about $750 to a low of $500, a decline of over 30%. It also started a rebound bull market.
2020 U.S. Election: In the two months prior, Bitcoin dropped about 16%, from $12,000 to around $10,000, and then entered a phase of consolidation until a rebound occurred at a critical moment before the election. By May 2021, it shot up to $60,000!
2024 U.S. Election: Three months before the election, a plunge on August 5th to $49,000, and a new round of highs began on October 7th.
Conclusion: By looking at history, we can understand the rise and fall! In hindsight, what seems inevitable was always inconspicuous at the time.
The election results will be out the day after tomorrow.
If Trump wins, the crypto market may jump in the short term; if Harris wins, the crypto market may fall in the short term, both could influence the market direction for two months. In the long run, if Trump wins, BTC could rise to $90,000 - $100,000, and after a shake at $70,000 - $90,000, it may reach new highs; if Harris wins, it might hover at $50,000 - $70,000 before a slow bull market exceeds $100,000, due to differing inflation expectations of the two parties. The interest groups behind Harris will flood the market, which is good for the crypto space. Currently, Polymarket shows Trump's approval at 58%, Harris at 42%, but in polls, Harris is slightly ahead, so the result is uncertain. Now is the best time to hold onto Bitcoin. Institutions are buying aggressively, and demand exceeds supply; on-chain data indicates a continuation of the bull market trend. There might be a slight downturn in the short term due to the reduced likelihood of Trump winning, but the medium to long-term outlook remains positive.
See original
11.14 Evening Thoughts
Currently, there is not much volatility. Tomorrow is the election, and today has been a period of oscillation and correction.
Now, before the major news comes in, all technical analysis seems to be irrelevant. The main focus is still on the impact of market sentiment,
If Trump loses, certain projects related to him will definitely be impacted to some extent. The overall direction afterwards will depend on the results announced.
In intraday trading, we are still in a downward trend, without any breakout of the pattern. If there is a breakout, one can go long; if not, one should follow the trend.
Trading Suggestions
Bitcoin: Short near 69300-69800
Target: Around 68300-67800 (with a stop loss of 500)
Ether: Short near 2500-2520
Target: Around 2420-2450 (with a stop loss of 30)
Currently, there is not much volatility. Tomorrow is the election, and today has been a period of oscillation and correction.
Now, before the major news comes in, all technical analysis seems to be irrelevant. The main focus is still on the impact of market sentiment,
If Trump loses, certain projects related to him will definitely be impacted to some extent. The overall direction afterwards will depend on the results announced.
In intraday trading, we are still in a downward trend, without any breakout of the pattern. If there is a breakout, one can go long; if not, one should follow the trend.
Trading Suggestions
Bitcoin: Short near 69300-69800
Target: Around 68300-67800 (with a stop loss of 500)
Ether: Short near 2500-2520
Target: Around 2420-2450 (with a stop loss of 30)
See original
A contract speculation strategy suitable for beginners
People often ask me how I operate contracts, so today I will summarize a basic framework for you:
1. First buy 20%
2. If the purchase is wrong and there is a 10% loss, immediately stop loss, with the loss amount being 2% of the total position.
3. If the purchase is correct and there is a 10% profit, immediately increase the position by 20%, if it rises another 10%, increase the position by another 20%, and finally increase by 40% in one go, to amplify the winning results. As long as there is no 10% loss, hold the position. If it drops by 10%, immediately liquidate the entire position.
The general idea is to minimize risk, similar to the speculation king Livermore.
Of course, this is just a rough framework, and there will definitely be many uncertainties in the specific implementation.
Because the market is ever-changing. I often execute this method during trading, and overall, the results have been pretty good so far, but it’s not a foolproof method; it just reduces risk and increases the profit rate.
When trading contracts, it is essential to have a method; otherwise, you can only become fodder.
People often ask me how I operate contracts, so today I will summarize a basic framework for you:
1. First buy 20%
2. If the purchase is wrong and there is a 10% loss, immediately stop loss, with the loss amount being 2% of the total position.
3. If the purchase is correct and there is a 10% profit, immediately increase the position by 20%, if it rises another 10%, increase the position by another 20%, and finally increase by 40% in one go, to amplify the winning results. As long as there is no 10% loss, hold the position. If it drops by 10%, immediately liquidate the entire position.
The general idea is to minimize risk, similar to the speculation king Livermore.
Of course, this is just a rough framework, and there will definitely be many uncertainties in the specific implementation.
Because the market is ever-changing. I often execute this method during trading, and overall, the results have been pretty good so far, but it’s not a foolproof method; it just reduces risk and increases the profit rate.
When trading contracts, it is essential to have a method; otherwise, you can only become fodder.
See original
What are the factors driving the recent rise of Bitcoin?
• The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have initiated a bullish trend for Bitcoin.
• Gold prices have surged.
• Ethereum's rebound has improved market sentiment.
• Harris has publicly expressed support for the crypto industry for the first time.
Will the altcoin season appear again?
This wave of altcoin market seems like it's really about to start. You may miss many opportunities, but you must seize that key moment; otherwise, your previous investments will be wasted...
Many people believe that the altcoin season will not happen again, but the key lies in how to define the concept of 'altcoin season'?
If not clearly defined, then everyone’s opinion has some validity, yet also lacks reasoning.
I believe that the altcoin season will still occur, but the timing is not yet ripe, and it is somewhat different from what most people understand as the altcoin season.
If in the last 90-day cycle, 75% of the top 50 tokens (excluding stablecoins like Tether, DAI, etc., and asset-backed tokens like WBTC, stETH, cLINK, etc.) performed better than Bitcoin, then it qualifies as an altcoin season.
• The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have initiated a bullish trend for Bitcoin.
• Gold prices have surged.
• Ethereum's rebound has improved market sentiment.
• Harris has publicly expressed support for the crypto industry for the first time.
Will the altcoin season appear again?
This wave of altcoin market seems like it's really about to start. You may miss many opportunities, but you must seize that key moment; otherwise, your previous investments will be wasted...
Many people believe that the altcoin season will not happen again, but the key lies in how to define the concept of 'altcoin season'?
If not clearly defined, then everyone’s opinion has some validity, yet also lacks reasoning.
I believe that the altcoin season will still occur, but the timing is not yet ripe, and it is somewhat different from what most people understand as the altcoin season.
If in the last 90-day cycle, 75% of the top 50 tokens (excluding stablecoins like Tether, DAI, etc., and asset-backed tokens like WBTC, stETH, cLINK, etc.) performed better than Bitcoin, then it qualifies as an altcoin season.
See original
After losing hundreds of thousands, which coin should I go all-in on with the remaining 30,000 to turn things around?
#SOL
Impressive recovery after the bear market Solana is one of the fastest-growing blockchain networks, gaining increasing attention from investors since its launch in 2020.
It combines Proof of History (POH) and Proof of Stake (POS) consensus mechanisms, aimed at achieving high throughput and low cost, with transaction fees only a fraction of a cent and confirmation times within minutes.
Solana adopts a parallel transaction processing model, allowing for more efficient utilization of network resources, thus excelling in speed and security.
Its daily transaction volume often exceeds that of other blockchains, supporting hundreds of smart contracts and applications, benefiting from the memecoin trend and facilitating DeFi activities.
Despite experiencing the crypto winter and the bankruptcy of FTX, Solana has shown resilience and performed excellently in 2024, reaching a new high of over $200 on March 18.
Solana ETFs were also approved in the third quarter of 2024, further enhancing its mainstream recognition.
Therefore, Solana is considered one of the most worthwhile cryptocurrencies to invest in for 2024.
#DOGE
The best memecoin to buy during the 2024 cryptocurrency winter Dogecoin, launched by Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer in 2013, is a fork of Bitcoin, with lower mining difficulty, and features the Shiba Inu Kabosu as its brand image.
It has grown to become one of the dominant projects in the crypto space and is one of the largest meme coins by market capitalization and community size.
Although not an emerging meme cryptocurrency, Dogecoin still boasts a large community and has become stronger after experiencing multiple crypto winters.
Due to its resilience and strong community support, Dogecoin is considered the memecoin project most likely to survive the winter.
The Dogecoin community excels in marketing, gaining recognition from numerous industry leaders, including Elon Musk.
During the 2021 bull market, Dogecoin reached a historic high of over $0.73, and its current trading price is slightly above $0.1, but it has performed better than many other assets during the winter.
So far this year, Dogecoin has grown over 59%, reaching an annual peak of $0.2 on March 29.
For investors interested in a solid story behind a dog-themed meme coin, Dogecoin could be a great choice.
#SOL
Impressive recovery after the bear market Solana is one of the fastest-growing blockchain networks, gaining increasing attention from investors since its launch in 2020.
It combines Proof of History (POH) and Proof of Stake (POS) consensus mechanisms, aimed at achieving high throughput and low cost, with transaction fees only a fraction of a cent and confirmation times within minutes.
Solana adopts a parallel transaction processing model, allowing for more efficient utilization of network resources, thus excelling in speed and security.
Its daily transaction volume often exceeds that of other blockchains, supporting hundreds of smart contracts and applications, benefiting from the memecoin trend and facilitating DeFi activities.
Despite experiencing the crypto winter and the bankruptcy of FTX, Solana has shown resilience and performed excellently in 2024, reaching a new high of over $200 on March 18.
Solana ETFs were also approved in the third quarter of 2024, further enhancing its mainstream recognition.
Therefore, Solana is considered one of the most worthwhile cryptocurrencies to invest in for 2024.
#DOGE
The best memecoin to buy during the 2024 cryptocurrency winter Dogecoin, launched by Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer in 2013, is a fork of Bitcoin, with lower mining difficulty, and features the Shiba Inu Kabosu as its brand image.
It has grown to become one of the dominant projects in the crypto space and is one of the largest meme coins by market capitalization and community size.
Although not an emerging meme cryptocurrency, Dogecoin still boasts a large community and has become stronger after experiencing multiple crypto winters.
Due to its resilience and strong community support, Dogecoin is considered the memecoin project most likely to survive the winter.
The Dogecoin community excels in marketing, gaining recognition from numerous industry leaders, including Elon Musk.
During the 2021 bull market, Dogecoin reached a historic high of over $0.73, and its current trading price is slightly above $0.1, but it has performed better than many other assets during the winter.
So far this year, Dogecoin has grown over 59%, reaching an annual peak of $0.2 on March 29.
For investors interested in a solid story behind a dog-themed meme coin, Dogecoin could be a great choice.
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