This is the trend after the sentiment subsides. Since the price of Bread reached 72,000 and was under pressure, it has not set a new high. The trend in the past two days has basically been a partial decline and then a sideways decline. The upward space has been severely compressed. At present, the 67,000 position has no support capacity. If you want to predict the support, you need to summarize it according to the range. The decline in the 64,500-67,000 range mentioned in the previous analysis may be hindered, but this does not mean that you can go long in this range and pray for a second reversal of the market. The probability is far less than the probability of falling below 64,500 and returning to 60,000, so it is better to choose a relatively high position to go short than to bet on long positions in this range.

The daily line is very consistent with the five-wave decline structure analyzed by me last period. The three consecutive days of closing negative pushed the price to around 67,000. This is the first step of the article mentioned that the four rising waves are about to enter the five falling waves, and the second confirmation is that the price falls below 64,500 and has the opportunity to return to the previous high starting point of 60,800. If the extension line of the five-wave decline begins to run, the integer of 60,000 can only be used as a short-term stop position and cannot be judged as a strong support, because it has been running back and forth in the previous ups and downs, and has lost its support and resistance ability. Of course, there may be a roundabout trend and a small rebound, but the final result must be to fall below 60,000 and move closer to 52,000 or even lower.

In the previous analysis, I have always emphasized the bearish perspective on 70,000. In my opinion, there will be basically no room for growth above this price. Obviously, under such a positive sentiment for Ethereum, the big cake has only risen to more than 70,000 and has no motivation to rise again. The cost price is too high and the capital in the circle can no longer pull this train. Later, with the help of the popularity of ETFs, the focus will be on the cottages such as Ethereum, which will lead to the opposite trend of the big cake and the cottage.

On May 21, I arranged a medium- and long-term short position of 71,000-75,000 on the entire network. Those who have boarded the train have already entered the first position near 71,000. Currently, they are holding a profit of 4,000 points. Our medium-term target is 60,800 and the long-term target is 52,000. Those who are short will see whether the next trend will give them an opportunity to go above 70,000. If there is, they can board the train. Ethereum arranged the spot at 2,920 earlier and reminded them to reduce their positions at 3,700 a few days ago. The idea of ​​clearing all positions near 4,000 and shorting them reversely was that the high point was only 3,952, which was almost there. Those who have boarded the train should first go short and wait for the opportunity to go above 4,000 or wait for the market to be cut in half and then go long and hold.Don’t do short-term contracts for now as they are more volatile and risky.

Bitcoin has recently risen from 66,000 to a maximum of 72,000, with an increase of more than 6,000 points. This wave of strong pull-up is closely related to the news of Ethereum. Compared with Ethereum, it is stronger, with a single-day increase of more than 20% and a second high extension to 3,850 before starting to retrace slightly. The attention of the crypto market and the lighter body are the main reasons why Ethereum can easily climb. After two days of rise, both have shown exhaustion and retracement. Bitcoin started a rapid callback after touching 72,000, and the lowest has fallen back to 69,200. Will this wave be a peak signal or a retracement to confirm support and relay rise?

If the daily line closes today, the direction will not be so clear, because there is a peak action near 72,000, and the closing of a small Yin without a Yin will retain the hope of turning positive and relaying the rise. The trajectory of the K-line in the small direction in the past two days has been outside the upper track of the daily Bollinger. The trend of the correction indicator is more often in the mud, and the probability of profit-taking and a small decline is high. According to the principle of five-wave decline, as long as the price is below the previous high of 72800-73000, the structural integrity can be ensured. At present, whether the four-wave rebound is completed and the five-wave decline is started requires two steps to confirm. The price first falls back to the 67000-64500 range and oscillates. After the oscillation, it chooses to develop downward and fall back to around 60000. Therefore, it is necessary to fall back to below 64500 at least to have the embryonic form of the fifth wave of decline. The roundabout trend will also be a weak trend of small rise and big fall.

My personal understanding is that the space above 70000 will be extremely compressed. Maybe it will break through the historical high of 73800 again in the later period, but the higher cost price will limit its rise. Some people think that the bull market has just begun, but I think the bull market has entered the middle or even the latter stage. I have interpreted this point about the weekly analysis. A big callback will definitely occur, but it is impossible to judge whether it will refresh the historical high first or this time 72000 is the high point and directly callback. Yesterday, I followed the original plan to short in batches at 71000-75000 for medium and long term. You can also short in spot form without leverage. Control the position to ensure that the forced liquidation price is above 80000. The medium-term target is 60800 and the long-term target is 52000. There is a small profit to hold, and the rest will be left to time. Ethereum reminded yesterday to reduce the spot position at 3700, and keep the bottom position to continue to watch 4000. The current sentiment has subsided. If it falls back to below 3600 today, the main force may have shipped. As a retail investor, you must also hand over all the chips in your hand and look for opportunities to buy later.

Good morning, everyone. Now the entire crypto market is rising across the board. The leader is Ethereum, which was in a bad state in the early stage. Its single-day increase is nearly 20%. This kind of crazy surge is rare in the past two years. The SEC requires potential spot Ethereum ETF issuers to speed up the update of change documents. In the eyes of the market, it is to increase the possibility of approval of Ethereum ETF, which is the main factor driving the price increase. Dabing never thought that there would be an opportunity to eat meat with the second brother. There was basically no obstacle from rising from 66,000 to the highest 72,000. I mentioned this in yesterday's analysis. Whether 67,000 breaks or not, it will not play a role in the unilateral trend. Although this time it is an emotional pull-up, the price has reached a new era above 70,000. Whether it will set a new record high, we will wait and see.

Yesterday's analysis has already explained to you the structure of the five-wave decline on the daily line. The three-wave decline has ended after the bottom of 56,500. From this position, the rebound of the four-wave recovery, as long as the retracement is still above 64,500, it is natural to rise to 70,000 later. By maintaining the integrity of the structure, we can judge the high point of this rise. From the structural theory, the high point of wave 4 should be lower than the previous high point of 72,800. If it remains below 73,000-72,800 in the next few cycles and there is no momentum for further rise, it is highly likely that the recovery of wave 4 will end and the decline of wave 5 will begin.

In addition, the weekly chart pattern, two consecutive weeks of positive lines will recover most of the decline after the previous peak, which is a bit of a V-shaped reversal. This also happened when the last bull market was close to the top. But the former started a deep correction directly after this wave of rebound. History is a mirror for success and failure. This year, there was basically no significant retracement during the entire bull market stage, which is a big hidden danger. The future market will see whether it will hit a high point first or start a correction directly at 72,000, which is the top.

In my personal opinion, it is a more dangerous price to take over at 70,000. Although we have arranged spot at 60,000 and Ether 2,920 in the early stage, the ultimate goal is to clear all at 70,000. The maximum target of Ether is 4,000. Fans who have been paying attention for a long time will have an impression of this. Yesterday, I also reminded that when the price is above 70,000, it is a medium- and long-term opportunity. As long as the position control is reasonable, you can enter the market in batches at 71,000-75,000. Keeping the forced liquidation price above 80,000 is a safety line. The medium-term target is 60,800 and the long-term target is 52,000.Ethereum may continue to rise in the near future. Spot positions should be reduced at 3700 first, and the remaining positions can be cleared at around 4000 and then shorted. The maximum target is 2700.

Since last week, after a strong rise from 60,800, the price has climbed all the way to above 66,000 and maintained a small range of fluctuations. After accumulating strength over the weekend, the recent high point has risen from 67,400 to 67,800. At present, after testing 67,800, it quickly fell back to 66,000. This trend has always been something I am more vigilant about. The pressure position of 67,000 is tacitly accepted by the market and tested many times before breaking through, creating the illusion that it is difficult to break through. Therefore, when short chips are concentrated in a very small range, this trend of shorting will appear. I have predicted this situation and given a second trading plan, which is 67,500-67,800 short, but I did not continue to implement this plan because the advance short under 67,000 was cut.

Now it is not so important whether 67,000 breaks or not. Because of the back and forth penetration in the market fluctuations, whether it breaks through or falls below will become smooth. The long trend on the daily line remains downward before the price breaks through the previous high of 72,900, and the low moves down from 60,800 to 56,500. The obvious thing about the five-wave decline is that the third wave has been completed and the fourth wave has entered the stage of recovery. Whether it can reach 70,000 or above requires the continuity of the strong trend. If the next correction is supported near 64,500, even if the price of 70,000 is not seen in the short term, it will be a strong upward trend of high-low moving.

In the early stage, I have been arranging short-term short positions below 67,000. After making profits many times, I finally turned over last week. Of course, this operation reminded me to enter the market with a small stop loss, and I will not give up too much profit. The current situation is a downward trend after a high rise. Pay attention to the support situation above 64,500 below. You can wait and observe for a period to see if the second support is effective. It is best to rebound to see the price above 70,000 in the near future. In my opinion, this is a good opportunity for medium and long-term short positions. Ether pays attention to the support situation of 2920-2940 and the suppression near 3150.

Good evening, I said yesterday that there are two possibilities for subsequent rises. The first is a false breakout trend of breaking through the 67000 pin directly, and the second is that the price will be supported at 64500-65500 after reaching the top and retaining the hope of rising. Yesterday's trend is consistent with the latter. The last wall blocking the bulls is the 67000 position. This is the default suppression position for many leeks. If the short contracts are too concentrated, you have to beware of the malicious trend of pin-washing.

The pressure near 67000 again in the four-hour chart is a bit like the M-top structure. It is actually simple to confirm. It is under pressure below the previous high of 67200 and falls below 64500 in the subsequent shock. 64500 was also repeatedly suppressed in the front. Although the pin exceeded a certain range later, it was recovered very quickly. If it is not stimulated by the news after a long period of shock in the middle and low positions, it can be regarded as a secondary top. After the sentiment subsides and returns to the technical side, the resistance will be effective in a short time (the first test was passed yesterday). Now it depends on whether the trend can break through the strong pressure of 67000. If it breaks through, the medium-term trend will turn strong. If it continues to be under pressure, it will fluctuate between 64500-67000 for several times, and then return to weakness after the space is compressed.

I have always emphasized that my point of view is the bearish idea below 67000. Yesterday, the first set of short-selling plans was 66200-66500 shorts. The first target point was around 64500. You can reduce your position or go directly. Whether the maximum target of 61000 can be achieved depends on the ability of position management. It is not yet certain whether the medium-term trend will turn strong. Below 67000 is still an opportunity to short with a small stop loss. If it cannot go up today, it will be sideways for two days over the weekend. Next week is likely to be a small decline with profit taking. Ethereum made up for the rise today, and the increase was not large. Continue to hold the short position of 3020-3050. Those with short positions can continue to get on board. The short-term target is 2950-2920.

Good evening, yesterday's CPI published value and expected value are consistent, which is a small impact situation. The problem lies in the monthly rate of CPI and the monthly rate of retail sales, especially the latter recorded 0, far below the expected 0.4%, which directly reflects the decline in consumption level. The US dollar plunged sharply, and non-US circles rose to varying degrees. The big cake rose rapidly from 62,500 to a high of 66,000 during the US trading period and remained at a high level today. Now it is only one step away from 67,000. Whether the market will continue to break through and rush to 70,000 or be short-lived and under pressure and return to weakness is a problem we need to consider.

I will talk about my point of view from the four-hour perspective. Everyone is familiar with the position of 67,000. It is the second highest point of the previous bottoming out and rebounding. It has been tested three times but has not been effectively broken through. If it had broken through this point in one go yesterday, I would not hesitate to change my mind and call back to buy more. It's just that the four-hour K-line has been fluctuating in a small range since the price rose to above 65,500, which means it is a bit exhausted. Of course, the possibility of accumulating strength to continue to rise cannot be ruled out. There are only two situations to be met, directly breaking through or retracing the price to keep hope at 64500-65500. The former strong pull-up is likely to be a false breakout and needle-insertion wash trend, while the latter is a normal pullback to maintain a regular upward shock.

Friendly reminder, passion will fade sooner or later, so don't chase high. I have always been optimistic about the bearish idea below 67000 in the early stage, and I have gained something after several operations. I didn't update yesterday because I didn't want to bet on the unknown data, and the result was indeed beyond my expectations. The current situation is either to use 67000 as a defense and go short directly at the current price of 66200-66500, or wait for the false breakthrough needle position of 67500-67800 to go short, the first target is 64500, and the maximum target is 61000. Ether seems to have been neglected this year, and its follow-up is very poor. You can pay attention to the range of 3020-3050 to go short, and the short-term target is 2950. Longs are not involved for the time being.

Recently, after multiple attempts to find support in the range of 60000-60800, there have been different degrees of rebounds. Yesterday's rebound was relatively strong, rising from 60800 to a maximum of 63500. The overall performance is strong, but the strength is obviously not enough, especially when the price is above 63000, there are signs of obstruction and pause. It should be noted that before this rise, it was sideways at 60800 for many days, and the trading was sluggish. Only when the main force entered the market could such a sudden upward trend occur. The purpose is obviously to activate the market. The price above 63000 is to change hands to test the enthusiasm of retail investors to take over. Once the mood subsides or there is no food to be cut, these chips will be withdrawn immediately, causing the price to return to the previous sideways position.

Although the daily line has been continuously supported near 60800, we all know that as long as the support or resistance level is tested many times, its defensive ability will gradually weaken, which is determined by the trend. The medium-term trend is obviously downward, and the high point has moved down from 73880-72890-67000. Although the range of 60800-60000 can provide short-term support, it is difficult to form a reversal trend if there is no trapezoidal rise with bottom lifting in the subsequent rebound. We take the previous high of 65500 as the short-term signal and the previous strong pressure of 67000 as the medium-term signal, that is, the price breaking through the former is a short-term trend strengthening, and the latter is a medium-term trend reversal. Before the short-term strong signal appears, it will be more inclined to a weak and oscillating downward trend.

Like the current trend of mid-level oscillation, there is a large space up and down. It just depends on which direction the individual focuses on. Because my point of view is relatively clear, I am optimistic about the big price correction, so the medium-term trend tends to be short-term. Yesterday's short-term arrangement was to short at 63000. At the current price of 61500, there is already a profit margin. You can continue to hold after reducing your position, and the maximum target is around 60800. Short positions are waiting for the price to fall back to 59000-59200 to rebound from oversold, with a target of 60500. The rebound of Ethereum is weak, so I didn't go short. I can continue to wait for a pullback to a low level to go long. I will focus on the 2820-2780 range and the target is 2950. In the current situation, I can only do short-term swings. Once there are medium and long-term opportunities in the future, I will make them public on the entire network. You can click to follow up.

The weekend is really like a break for everyone, with no fluctuations. After the previous wave fell from 63,500 to around 60,000, the K-line was straight and there was no room for fluctuations. Of course, we understand that things that come together must separate, and a narrow range also means that it will not last too long and there will be a unilateral or wash-out trend. If we want to avoid or follow this trend, what points are worth our attention?

First of all, from the perspective of the long trend, we can see the complete process of the previous bull market on the weekly chart, from 3620↑65,000 in the early stage, from 65,000↓28,800 in the mid-term, and from 28,800↑69,200 in the late stage. In the current bull market, the early stage has already risen from 15,500↑73,880. The subsequent mid-term adjustment and the later stage of the bull market have not yet come out. Comparing the two, the early forms of the bull market are very similar, but the rising angle of this bull market is relatively smooth, which is actually easy to understand, the difference between 1-10 and 100-1000. In terms of cycles, it took a year from the beginning of the last bull market to the second highest point of 65,000, and it also took a year from the low point to the highest point of 73,880 this time. So I have reason to believe that 73,880 is the second highest point of this bull market and it will enter the mid-term adjustment stage (down 40%-50%). After re-building the bottom, it will take advantage of the Fed's possible interest rate cut news to go through the last stage of the bull market.

Secondly, the medium-term trend. Recently, I have emphasized the bearish perspective below 67,000. In fact, it is easy to understand that as long as the price is below this position, the rebound will not be a signal of a strong mid-term trend. The recent rebound strength has gradually diminished. With the high point moving down, it is not a good thing that the only low point of 60,000-60,800 has been tested many times. If it cannot directly break below and continue to absorb retail investors' chips in the short term, then the most likely occurrence is an up and down wash trend with 60,800 as the center of the absorption. Once it falls below the support band of 60,000-60,800, the point decline needs to pay attention to the support of 59,000-59,200 or even lower prices.

Although the long-term trend is predicted by carving a boat to find a sword, it is better than having no basis. I personally agree that the bull market has not ended, but I do not agree with the view that the bull market has just begun. Before the mid- and long-term opportunities appear, we still focus on short-term fluctuations. Big cake pays attention to the opportunity to go short at 63,000 and go long at 59,000-59,200, and the target can be set around 60,800.Ethereum 3020-3050 short to 2880, 2820-2780 long to 2950.

Good morning, when the price rose from the lowest 56,500, the most asked question was whether the bull market is back? In the past few days, it fell from 65,500 to the lowest 60,900, and some people asked whether the bull market is over? In fact, the answer to this question was given in the previous analysis of the general trend. I am very clear that the bull market has not ended, but it will enter the mid-term correction stage, and the second bottoming out is a high probability event. Only after the bottom is re-established will it enter the final bull market. It is important to understand that the big cake is different from the copycat dog. It belongs to the basic plate in the currency circle. Whether it is a bull market is determined by the morphological structure of the long trend, not the short-term band influence. Secondly, the vacillating and roundabout trend caused by retail investors must be the short-term main funds’ rapid in and out of the wash, not the market behavior.

Regarding the basic judgment of the mid-term trend, I have emphasized several key points recently. First, the price is below 67,000, which is bearish. The price continues to fluctuate below this position, which will gradually compress the upward space. Although the low point has not been refreshed at present, the downward movement of the high point has become a fact. This is a typical descending triangle structure. The rebound near the lower support of the structure at 60800 or lower will basically not exceed the range of the upper wall at 64500. According to this judgment, in the next few days, we will pay attention to whether the support near 60800 is effective. If the rebound returns to 63000, the structure can continue to be maintained and the range of shocks can be narrowed. Once the support is broken, it will turn into a downward channel. Later, we should pay attention to the appearance of large and medium-sized Yin that accelerates the decline.

There is no medium- and long-term arrangement during this period. I am waiting for the price to fall to my personal psychological expectation or rise to a position close to the top. This is a more ideal medium- and long-term opportunity. The current price of just over 6 is in the middle, which is obviously not suitable. So I will participate in the short-term at the position I think is suitable. The successful profit stop of the previous 64800 short and the ether 3220 short is the first step. The second step is the long near 60800 (ether 2920) yesterday. This long needs to verify the strength of the support rebound, so it only gives a target near 62000. After the two steps of collecting rice are completed, it is time to hold the currency and wait and see, waiting for the new support of the accelerated decline or the pressure test after the rebound high before considering entering the market. I will remind you again when there is an opportunity, so you can pay attention to it.

Good morning. Yesterday, I mainly verified whether the trading ideas of the previous day were correct. I emphasized that before the breakthrough of 67,000, I was mainly biased towards short-selling operations. Whether it was the daily line or the four-hour line, it was an obvious downward trend. Although the bottoming out showed a V-shaped retraction pattern, as long as the price was below 67,000, the trend could not be directly turned to an upward trend. The oscillation at the top of the pattern was weak or it turned to a downward trend again. It was more common.

As for the daily line, I said before that the acceleration line in the roundabout trend mainly came from the chips of the main force, especially the reverse positive line in this downward structure. I will not say that the bull market has returned after the price bottomed out at 56,500. This is a biased view. In my opinion, the combination structure is greater than the single K pattern. The daily trend line has determined the downward structure. Even if there is no special event that accelerates the decline, the overall pattern has already gone into a segmented downward trend. It is just that the external factors accelerate the bottoming out to provide the necessary environment for the subsequent oversold rebound. We know that the rebound strength is gradually decreasing, the high resistance is moving down, and the low point has not refreshed the downward triangle. If the K line keeps running within the triangle, the short-term support will be around 60,800, which is 50% of the previous increase. If it gets support and rebounds, there is a probability that it will return to above 64000 and test the pressure again. If it falls below the support, we need to consider whether a downward channel has been formed, and the probability of refreshing the previous low of 56500 increases.

The short positions given by the whole network at 64800 have been closed at 62800, and the short positions of Ethereum 3220 have been closed at 3050. Judging from the current situation, not all of them have been eaten, but the excess part is not in my plan. In the near future, because the psychological price has not been reached, no mid-line arrangement will be made. The roundabout trend can be done in waves first, and I will re-arrange it if the market gives opportunities later. In the short term, we focus on shorting at high levels. There are still many opportunities below 67000, and the best position is above 66000, but it may be difficult to get on the train. The opportunities that can be given may still be between 64000-64800. In the short term, pay attention to the support of 60800-60500 to enter the market, and the target is above 62000. Ethereum 3150-3180 short to 3030, 2920-2890 long to 3100.

Good evening, because the pull-up from the previous wave of decline to the short-term bottoming is basically caused by the inflow and outflow of funds of the main force, so when the main force has low-priced chips, there will be a sudden profit-taking and fleeing market when it rises to a relatively high level. Today, after opening near 64,000, it rose again to a high of 65,500 and then fell back quickly. This trend is very obvious.

The accelerated positive line of the daily line on May 3 is basically the main chips, because the market is still in a wait-and-see attitude after the bottoming out, and retail investors do not have such a strong force to pull the market. The small positive and cross in the next two days have begun to change hands in small quantities to activate retail investors to participate, so it will cause a short-term mid-term long-short competition. For the future market trend, because the previous low has been refreshed, at least in the daily cycle, there is a medium-term downward trend structure. To make this structure fully established, first of all, it will not break through the price of 67,000 (equivalent to the lifeline of the bulls), and secondly, it will refresh the previous low of 56,500 again in the later period. Of course, its running trajectory can be circuitous many times, alternating between yin and yang, but the final decline must be greater than the increase.

My recent bearish outlook has been around 67,000. In the rebound trend, 64,000-67,000 may actually become the end point of this rebound, especially the new band after the V-shaped reversal. So yesterday, two ranges were given to consider participating in short-term trading. Under the current situation, the short-term trading of 64,500-64,800 can be participated in, with a maximum space of 1,000 points. For stability, you can reduce your position and continue to clear your position near 62,800. Spot can wait patiently for 4-5 batch opportunities.

The points given by Ethereum are relatively accurate, with a reference range of 3180-3220 short positions, which basically reaches the top, and the maximum target can be held to around 3050. Spot is 2900 to continue holding, 2800-2700 to cover positions, and the maximum target is 4000. Let's see if all short-term positions can be cleared today. After clearing, we will reschedule tomorrow. You can click to follow up.

After the price of the big cake fell to 56500 and got support, it rebounded to a maximum of 64500. The whole process went through bottoming, rebounding, and acceleration. When the price entered above 64000, the momentum had obviously decayed, the reversal pattern of the small cycle had been completed, and the high point aligned with the starting position of the previous wave of decline and entered a new trend. The stress test point we knew in the early stage was around 67000. Unless it can maintain a roundabout rise with a higher momentum than the pullback, it is possible to conduct a stress test again. Otherwise, even if the upward momentum is weakened and it cannot fall to a lower position in the short term, it is a falling wedge oscillation with a high point below 67000.

Regarding the long trend, I personally still prefer to go through the process of a mid-term big pullback to bottom out again and then return to the bull market. This is based on the historical bull market operation rules and weekly chart patterns (there is a specific analysis in the early stage). I believe that the bull market has not ended, but it just needs to go through the necessary pullback stage. This prediction comes from the fact that the rise after the halving has not really started, and the other is at what time the Fed will cut interest rates.

Regarding the medium trend, a period of rapid decline and a period of rapid rise are actually the manifestation of the main funds entering and leaving the market. From the perspective of form alone, after the daily V-shaped reversal, most situations can be divided into two types:
Profit-taking to recover part of the gains or small K-line adjustment for several cycles. The former weakens with the V-shaped mouth 64000-64800 as the high point, and the latter is a small range of 62400-64800 parallel oscillation trend.

Trend judgment is actually summarizing the rules through historical trends. As long as you are good at observation and summary, you can know it. The difficulty is whether you can execute it in unity of knowledge and action. Before the price breaks through 67000, I will be more inclined to a bearish perspective in the short term, focusing on the suppression of the two ranges of 64500-64800 and 65800-66200, with a target of 62800. There is no big problem with spot being trapped below 7, 4-5 can be added or on the train. Ethereum 3180-3220 short, target 3050. Spot 2900 hold, 2700-2800 to add positions, target 4000.

Good morning, everyone. Because of CZ's entry, the platform funds have fled in large quantities for two consecutive days. The price of Bitcoin once fell from 64,500 to a minimum of 56,500. Regarding this wave of sharp declines, I personally prefer to believe that it is the main force's harvesting behavior with the help of this incident. If there is a crisis of trust in the platform, then without a turning point in this incident, the return of the main force's funds is the best proof. If CZ is gone, there can still be thousands of CZs, and personal problems cannot be raised to platform problems. After washing the longs, the rebound stopped and accelerated from 59,000 to 61,500 yesterday with the help of non-agricultural data. This wave of capital return will form a critical point in the median. Due to the low cost of holding positions, it is not ruled out that there will be a small cycle of profit-taking and flight. On May 1, I analyzed the possibility of a medium-term large correction from the cycle and form, and the current form is very consistent. To verify the accuracy of this idea, it depends on whether the price will refresh the historical high of 73,800 first or fall back to the second accumulation point of 38,000-48,000 to build a bottom. The results can basically be seen in the second half of the year. Looking at the short-term and medium-term trends from the daily line, the price was blocked three times near 67,000 in the early stage. Only if this position is broken through in a short time can there be a chance to test 70,000 again. Otherwise, it will be blocked repeatedly below 67,000, and the running space will be squeezed. When the high point is known and the low point is unknown, it will split and it is highly likely to bottom out again.

The current situation is either to wait for low prices to receive spot goods, as I said last time, 4-5 batches or wait for 4. At most, it will be held for a longer period of time. Even if the mid-term big correction I analyzed occurs, it will go through a bull market after bottoming out. If the mid-term long positions laid out in the early stage can hold up to now, the final target will be adjusted to around 66,000 and then leave the market. Continuing to hold is to bet on the breakthrough of 67,000, and the risk will increase. Short-term short positions are 65,800-66,200, with a target of 64,800-64,000, and short positions of Ethereum at 3250-3280, with a target of 3130. Spot chips at 2,900 or lower will continue to be held. There is no clear bottom in the short-term bullish trend yet, so don’t rush to buy at the median position.

I have observed the inflow of funds in the past two days. The real problem is still with BA. Mr. Zhao was sentenced to several months in prison on April 30 in Eagle Country. I thought that everything would be fine after paying a huge fine, but it turned out that they wanted all of his money. In this case, the outflow of funds from BA in the past two days has exceeded 10 billion dollars. The capital flight caused by concerns about the future of the platform is not an exaggeration to say that it is a black swan event. I personally feel a little strange that it seems that every mid-term correction in the bull market is accompanied by similar major events. I don’t know if it is really a coincidence or a carefully planned pusher.

In the early stage, I said that the bull market has reached its end, and many people sneered. My personal prediction is to consider the cycle and form. The bull market cycle is generally about two years. The start time of this round of bull market is January 2023. It will take one year to touch the highest point of 73,800. Then there is the remaining half a year of mid-term correction, and the other half a year is the final impact of the bull market after the second bottoming out. From the weekly chart, the last bull market fell from a high of 60,000 to a low of 28,800, and 28,800 happened to be the secondary low point on the way to 60,000. This bull market also had a secondary low point before hitting 73,800. Taking into account inflation and increased holding costs, the range is between 38,000 and 48,000. So if it really enters the stage of a mid-term correction as expected, then the most likely second bottom position is in this range.

The mid-term layout still has a strong subjective will, and does not take into account that the rise after the halving is actually a long-term impact. Although it will come, it can also come very late. In addition, the point of the fourth wave rebound is inferred from the principle of five-wave decline, but the reality is that the three-wave decline line is still extending. Overall, there is no problem with the long-term trend judgment, but the medium-term trend is still confused by the market and structure. When there were many mid-term layouts in the early stage, it was always emphasized to enter the market in batches with light positions, and continue to hold those who can hold on, pay attention to the oversold rebound in the small cycle, and adjust the target to 66,000. If you enter the spot market with full position, wait for 4 or 4-5 batches. I have not participated in the Ethereum contract since it rose above 3200. I have been chasing the spot. The price of 2920 is ok, just hold it patiently. 2700-2400 is to cover the position, and the maximum target is 4000.

I said before that when only the cottage market rose, this bipolar trend would stagnate and be harvested by the hands when the cottage market rose almost, and the final flow would be the big cake. Yesterday, after the bottom of 61800, the V reversed and went out of the independent rising market. Many cottage markets were sucked blood, resulting in weak rise or even direct decline. It is said to be a barometer, but it is actually fuel.

After falling below 66500 on April 24, the upward trend of the small cycle turned to a downward trend. Weak shocks move down the high and low points to form a channel, but the rapid recovery after each test of the low point is not too bad for the bulls. At least there are buying orders to stabilize the price, but the inflow of chips is not enough to break out of the breakthrough trend. The four-hour V reverse trend was blocked near 64700 and began to pull back. If the retracement low point can be above the previous low of 61800, there is a probability that it will turn into a trapezoidal rise again. If it refreshes the low again, pay attention to the support of 61200-60800, which is also the reference range for short-term bulls in the near future.

The daily closing line in recent days has been a small line, and the single K cannot give a signal. From the perspective of form, if it cannot break through 67,000 or fall below 59,500, it will enter the dead corner of the downward triangle. Earlier, I inferred according to the principle of five-wave decline, and was originally optimistic about the fourth wave of recovery, but it has not yet completely come out, and the current space is still being consumed by time. In the future, observe whether there is still demand for downward adjustment. If the low point can be maintained above 60,800 in the first wave of decline, the structure is established and the market is strong. On the contrary, it means that the three-wave decline is extended, and the low point of 59,500 is likely to be refreshed.

The long and short perspectives will find common points from various news or forms. Hong Kong's ETFs have not made much waves, interest rate cuts are still on the way, and it is a fact that the emotional value is not reflected on the market. Therefore, responding to the current trend is what we should pay attention to, and betting on the position that we think is highly likely. It has not officially started after the halving, including the rebound demand for the fourth wave of recovery, so I personally prefer the long perspective. Recently, I have been following the 60000 mid-term long, including the 62500 near the back. If it falls back to 60800-61200, I can still get on the train. The short-term target is 63000, and the medium-term target is 72000. Pay attention to position control in the medium term. Ethereum seems to be jumping out of the market. Hold the low-priced spot in your hand, the target is 4000, and no short-term arrangements are made for the time being.

Today, the cottage industry has risen quite happily, but there is no movement in the big market. This kind of bipolar trend has actually appeared a long time ago. After the halving, the cottage industry started first. When it rose to the high point, it would stagnate and even funds would flee and crash the market. The harvested chips would eventually flow into the big market. This is called blood sucking. It depends on which unlucky cottages will eventually become fuel. The big market tried 67,000 three times in the early stage and failed to break through, which led to a retracement. If the blood transfusion is successful this time, it will be a good opportunity for a breakthrough. I was still puzzled by the news of Hong Kong ETF a few days ago. The market did not react, and it was even falling. Now it seems that the main force is luring the market to avoid the leeks.

The daily line is still the view of the past two days. Before breaking through 67,000, it always maintains a large range of fluctuations. The fourth wave of the five-wave decline is an upward wave. Then the low point of this retracement is above 60,800-61,200, which can make the structure established. The closing amplitude of the K-line and the running time of the oscillation cycle are the key factors to determine the rising angle of the four waves. The longer the cycle drags on, the smaller the rise in the future market will be, because any long and short chips that enter the market at a low level cannot withstand long-term consumption or the short trend will be cleared by the main force. Therefore, only those who can survive to the end will become the fish that slip through the net of the main force.

My personal opinion is that the bull market is now at its end. The historical bull market cycle is generally two years, and the current bull market has been going on for a year and a half. It is obvious that the top has been built on the weekly line, but it is uncertain whether it will bottom out again and rise again to build a new top before entering the bear market. The daily line is an obvious downward channel. I arranged this mid-term long because I saw that there was still a need to fill the gap and there was no real rise after the halving. So I arranged the 60,000 mid-term long in advance, including the 62,500-63,800 mid-term range that was arranged again recently. The final closing price is around 72,000. Let's see if it can enter the fast lane. The most recent short-term was the big cake near 62,500 and the ether near 3060. After eating the meat, there is no short-term arrangement for the time being. The target for Ethereum spot is still 4,000, so we shouldn’t have to wait too long.

Good weekend everyone. It has risen to 64,000 but still hasn’t stopped. It hit a low of 62,300 before refreshing again at the opening today and recovered to around 63,000. The current volatile and weak trend has no stopping point in the whole process of falling from 67,000 to the lowest of 62,300. After a period of decline, a small part is recovered and then continues to refresh the previous low. The entire period of decline is smoother than the rise in the few days after the halving. If it were not for judging from the large cycle that the medium-term trend is still strong, I would even think that it has turned bearish.

Based on the current closing situation of the daily line, the positive cross at 4.25 was originally a signal to stop the decline, but the lack of subsequent reversal of the positive line shows that there is still demand for decline. Before the price breaks through 67,000, the daily closing of the stop line cannot indicate a complete reversal of the trend. There is still a probability of oscillation in the 67,000-61,200 range. This is the exact words of my analysis yesterday. After closing negative yesterday, it continued to fall today and refreshed the previous low, which is still within this range. Therefore, if you want to judge the second bottom low, you cannot start from the K-line pattern in recent days, unless there is a direct pull-up of the engulfing positive line. The current four-wave rebound still needs to be verified. It can be a launch line at any angle, but if the five-wave downward structure is to be established, the fallback low of this trend needs to be above the first-wave fall low (60800-61200).

The midline range of the secondary arrangement in the early stage was 62500-63800. When the price was still at 67000, it was difficult to give this opportunity. Looking back now, the high point is an awkward position. There are many opportunities to take profits during the rebound, but I don’t think it is necessary. Because this is the fluctuation that the midline must bear. Even the midline of 60,000 in the early stage was only to reduce positions at 67,000, not all of them were sold out. The maximum target is very clear is 72,000. If the market outlook gives an opportunity to 61200-60800, you can continue to get on the train or cover your position. The maximum target remains unchanged, and you should pay attention to the reasonable arrangement of positions. In the short term, we will pay attention to the strength of the rebound after setting a new low, with a reference range of 61600-61800 and a target of 63000. Ether 2920 spot holding, target 4000. In the short term, focus on 3020-2980, with a target of 3150.

The two-day decline from 67,000 to the lowest 62,700, this 4,300-point drop is enough to clean up the floating chips in the middle and shake the confidence of the bulls, especially the leeks who are heavily invested in Boduo. Of course, this does not include me and my fans who have been following me for a long time. Recently, I have emphasized the idea of ​​waiting for a retracement to go long, and I also mentioned in the article that I am optimistic about the range between 62,500 and 63,800. It is definitely not a simple trend to follow up with a small correction of 1,000 points. Judging from the current results, it is moving in the expected direction.

Yesterday's daily closing line was a relatively ideal stop-loss line, at least there was no more negative line to continue to bottom out. The current situation cannot be said to be a complete reversal. At least before breaking through 67,000, there is still a probability of fluctuations in the range of 67,000-61,200. To summarize it with the principle of five-wave decline, we are currently in the period of four-wave rising waves. The low point of this trend is actually established as long as it is above the low point of the first wave (61200). The reason why I personally am optimistic about the ambush of long positions again is at 63800-62500 because the support level corresponding to this rising trend line is in this range, and the rising angle depends on the rising speed, so we can only give a range.

There was no crazy upward trend after the halving. On the one hand, it was due to the market digestion in advance, and on the other hand, high prices correspond to high costs. The trend of the bull tail must not be as simple and crude as the mid-term bull market. More roundabout trends need to be paid attention to in the band, while the medium and long term pay more attention to trends. The current situation is that the long trend is already short and the medium trend is long. At present, the medium-term trend of 60000-72000 that I have arranged and tracked is mostly the medium-term trend. After this period, when the price returns to above 70000, it is time to gradually clear the warehouse and start the short layout. This is the next medium-term plan. It is the same with Ethereum. The spot price of 2920 is targeted at 4000. If the price is above 4000, you should clear the position and start the next step. Yesterday, the short-term trend was around 62500. Ethereum was around 3060. If you go up, you will make money. Don’t make short-term arrangements at the median price today. Focus on offline.

In recent analysis, the point I mentioned most is that if the bulls want to open the situation, they must first stand on the key position of 67,000. After the last test of 67,000 yesterday, there was a large retracement, and the three-and-exhaustion was confirmed at this position. This trend has been warned in recent analysis. Although my overall thinking is biased towards bulls, I still wait for a lower position before considering starting. At the same time, it is mentioned that the trend of covering up that has not been attacked for a long time, especially the longer the cycle is, the greater the possibility of retracement. The accumulation of chips in a small range, even if the market is going to rise in the future, there will be a short-term counter-trend washing method.

This wave of decline is within expectations, but the market has chosen the second trend. There are many factors that cause the decline. In my opinion, whether it is the emotional stimulation of the news or the deliberate washing of the main force, the cycle is short-term. It is particularly obvious from the K-line pattern. Yesterday, the big negative line was closed. If it is a technical adjustment, it should be a small negative segmented decline for several consecutive days, rather than this kind of big negative decline, so the most likely possibility is the main force washing. Observe the closing situation later. As long as there is a long positive line in the past two days, it can be confirmed.

Before, I wanted to get on the train without giving it a chance. Now that I have a chance, do you dare? 62500-63800 is the best position I think after 60000. If there is still room for downward movement due to panic selling caused by the market crash, the way to deal with it is to cover the position at 60000-59000, and participate in the medium-term approach in batches with light weight, rather than short-term gambling with heavy positions. Yesterday, the 60000 medium-term line has already prompted to reduce positions, and the remaining positions can be kept for covering positions. The short-term stopped after the last short-term long the day before yesterday. The reason is also very clear. There is a possibility of downward exploration in the stress test, so no arrangement is made. Today, the first pin test near 62500 can enter the market, and the target is 63800. The spot profit of Ethereum 2920 has also shrunk, but the impact is not great. The target continues to look at 4000. Short-term focus on 3060-3040.

The slow rise after halving has lasted for a week from the lowest 59,500 to the current highest 67,000. The strong fluctuations during this period give people the feeling that they have no way to start. This feeling is because there is no trading plan in advance, just like before the halving, it fell to around 60,000. I have been emphasizing that this is the best time to enter the market. It is difficult to miss this low price opportunity. The current trend has given a clear answer. If it rises rapidly, you can still chase it on the right after breaking through the key position. This slow rise makes people hesitant.

Yesterday's small negative will not have a big impact on the long structure, because the decline is not large and will be recovered quickly. If it is directly closed at 67,000 or a large negative appears and cannot be recovered, it is an obvious unilateral signal. If neither of the two situations occurs, it will be more inclined to box oscillation. The two most likely trends to break through the box are: one is to break through and accelerate to 70,000 after the small interval of 65,000-67,000. One kind of oscillation cycle is too long, and there are more chips accumulated in a small range. The main force washes the market and causes a panic decline to bottom out again. This is a short-term trend that deviates from the market. After getting support at 62500-63800, it will quickly return to strength.

Regardless of the trend, the recent trading idea must be more at low positions, and it is not recommended to open short positions below 70000. Whether it is the 60000 mid-line I arranged in the early stage or the opportunity to get on the train at 62500-63800 in the future market, the final goal is very clear, which is 72000. If you can't bear it and want to maintain your profit, you can reduce your position at 67000, but you must keep the bottom position to get the final goal. The spot target of ether is firmly looking at 4000. Short-term yesterday was more around 65500, and ether was more than 3200-3180, and both were profitable. Stress testing was carried out today, so there is no short-term plan, and it will depend on the situation during the session.