远山洞见
永远持有BTC | 专注投研分析 | 相信周期轮动，看好加密未来。
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The noise is too loud, personally I choose to speak less and observe more, everyone recommends quality bloggers to each other,
Taking advantage of the pullback, I added a large position in Bitcoin, and I'll share a few CryptoQuant data
USDT's 60-day net outflow has dropped below -$3B, the last time this happened was at the end of 2022 when Bitcoin was at $16K
Binance's purchasing power index has also fallen to the level of July 2024, and we all know what happened next, it rose all the way to 100,000
The fear index is now only 5, the historical low. COVID-19 was at 8, Terra's collapse was at 6, and FTX's explosion was at 6
Although the market is uncertain
But with selling pressure at this level, I personally think it's about time
Added, live well
$BTC
Taking advantage of the pullback, I added a large position in Bitcoin, and I'll share a few CryptoQuant data
USDT's 60-day net outflow has dropped below -$3B, the last time this happened was at the end of 2022 when Bitcoin was at $16K
Binance's purchasing power index has also fallen to the level of July 2024, and we all know what happened next, it rose all the way to 100,000
The fear index is now only 5, the historical low. COVID-19 was at 8, Terra's collapse was at 6, and FTX's explosion was at 6
Although the market is uncertain
But with selling pressure at this level, I personally think it's about time
Added, live well
$BTC
The worst start to a year for Bitcoin in a decade, but this time I can't find a reason.
Last night I increased my BTC holdings. Then I received several private messages, all asking the same question: How low will it go? Why is it dropping? How much longer will it drop?
My answer is I don't know.
But compared to the 'justified crashes' of 2018 and 2022, the 'unjustified drop' this time in 2026 may be more painful.
Because with a justified crash, at least you know when it will bottom out. With an unjustified drop, you don't know when it will stop.
This is the worst start to a year for Bitcoin in a decade.
Let's first look at how bad the data is.
- BTC has dropped 24% year-to-date, currently around $64,652.
- ETH has dropped 34% year-to-date, currently around $1,861.
My answer is I don't know.
But compared to the 'justified crashes' of 2018 and 2022, the 'unjustified drop' this time in 2026 may be more painful.
Because with a justified crash, at least you know when it will bottom out. With an unjustified drop, you don't know when it will stop.
This is the worst start to a year for Bitcoin in a decade.
Let's first look at how bad the data is.
- BTC has dropped 24% year-to-date, currently around $64,652.
- ETH has dropped 34% year-to-date, currently around $1,861.
USD1 Suddenly collapsed, let's briefly outline the timeline.
1️⃣ On-chain detective zachxbt posted a warning about a major investigation to be released on February 26, exposing one of the most profitable companies in crypto for long-term abuse of internal data for insider trading.
2️⃣ At a critical moment, everyone noticed that Eric Trump, Donald Trump's eldest son, was frantically deleting content related to $USD1 and $WLFI from his account. $USD1 subsequently uncoupled.
3️⃣ The biggest victims this time were the retail investors who were trying to take advantage of the situation. Previously, they launched a USD1 position airdrop activity, where if you put USD1 as collateral in the contract, you could get a 1.2x yield bonus.
4️⃣ Many people thought this was a surefire "money printing" opportunity, using USDC to exchange for USD1 for investment while bearing the cost of exchange rate loss. The result??? Were they cut again???
1️⃣ On-chain detective zachxbt posted a warning about a major investigation to be released on February 26, exposing one of the most profitable companies in crypto for long-term abuse of internal data for insider trading.
2️⃣ At a critical moment, everyone noticed that Eric Trump, Donald Trump's eldest son, was frantically deleting content related to $USD1 and $WLFI from his account. $USD1 subsequently uncoupled.
3️⃣ The biggest victims this time were the retail investors who were trying to take advantage of the situation. Previously, they launched a USD1 position airdrop activity, where if you put USD1 as collateral in the contract, you could get a 1.2x yield bonus.
4️⃣ Many people thought this was a surefire "money printing" opportunity, using USDC to exchange for USD1 for investment while bearing the cost of exchange rate loss. The result??? Were they cut again???
Hello @币安广场 , please recommend my tweet to those you think can get rich in 2026. The fifth day welcomes the God of Wealth, the God of Wealth is here!
It is still a long way from the deep bear
At that time, when a message was sent in the group, no one replied. It wasn't that they didn't see it, but that they really didn't want to talk.
Now, some are still cursing the project party, some are still arguing about the narrative, and some are still asking if the bottom has been picked up.
This shows that everyone is still here. There are still emotions, still expectations, and still reluctance.
The real deep bear is when everyone is unwilling — and then silent.
There is still a distance from that state.
At that time, when a message was sent in the group, no one replied. It wasn't that they didn't see it, but that they really didn't want to talk.
Now, some are still cursing the project party, some are still arguing about the narrative, and some are still asking if the bottom has been picked up.
This shows that everyone is still here. There are still emotions, still expectations, and still reluctance.
The real deep bear is when everyone is unwilling — and then silent.
There is still a distance from that state.
You're right, the real deep bear isn't like this.
When a message is sent in the group and no one replies, it's not that they didn't see it, they just really don't want to talk.
There are still people cursing the project party, still people arguing about the narrative, and still people asking if the bottom has been reached.
This shows that everyone is still here. There are still emotions, still expectations, and still reluctance.
The real deep bear is when everyone is reluctant — and then silent.
Now there is still some distance from that state.
When a message is sent in the group and no one replies, it's not that they didn't see it, they just really don't want to talk.
There are still people cursing the project party, still people arguing about the narrative, and still people asking if the bottom has been reached.
This shows that everyone is still here. There are still emotions, still expectations, and still reluctance.
The real deep bear is when everyone is reluctant — and then silent.
Now there is still some distance from that state.
In the English area, I stared at this $ETH monthly rise and fall chart for a long time, feeling a bit dazed.
January 2026 -17.52%, February -21.36%. It has fallen for six consecutive months.
The longest consecutive decline record in history was in 2018 — seven months, from May to November, seeing red every month. The worst single month was -53.79%.
Then in 2019, a new cycle began again.
The darkest moment is always before dawn — you might think this is a correct cliché, but not until you have really stayed in the dark.
January 2026 -17.52%, February -21.36%. It has fallen for six consecutive months.
The longest consecutive decline record in history was in 2018 — seven months, from May to November, seeing red every month. The worst single month was -53.79%.
Then in 2019, a new cycle began again.
The darkest moment is always before dawn — you might think this is a correct cliché, but not until you have really stayed in the dark.
Watching the retail investors in the group wailing, wondering if this month will end with a downward trend. If true, it would mean a "5 consecutive down months" on the monthly K chart.
If you check the historical data, you'll find that BTC has never recorded 5 consecutive down months. It's either 4 consecutive down months hitting the bottom, or a direct crash resulting in a brutal 6 consecutive down months. Interestingly, there is a historical gap for "5 consecutive down months".
But does this matter? Real traders never participate in this meaningless emotional exhaustion.
Whether the main players are drawing lines to fill in the gaps or applying extreme pressure, it doesn't change the underlying cyclical logic.
The public hands over their chips in panic, while we only focus on risk-reward ratios and certainty.
If you check the historical data, you'll find that BTC has never recorded 5 consecutive down months. It's either 4 consecutive down months hitting the bottom, or a direct crash resulting in a brutal 6 consecutive down months. Interestingly, there is a historical gap for "5 consecutive down months".
But does this matter? Real traders never participate in this meaningless emotional exhaustion.
Whether the main players are drawing lines to fill in the gaps or applying extreme pressure, it doesn't change the underlying cyclical logic.
The public hands over their chips in panic, while we only focus on risk-reward ratios and certainty.
The market continues to decline, and KOLs in the circle are tearing each other apart; Twitter is full of onlookers. The sentiment is at an all-time low, with pessimistic narratives everywhere.
I continue to increase my position in BTC. Not because I believe it will rise. It's because looking back, every time I truly regretted it, it wasn't because I bought incorrectly — it was because I should have bought but didn't. Every time it was 'just wait a bit longer,' and every time it resulted in regret.
Whether it's dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin, indexes, or individual stocks, essentially it’s a bet against your own emotions.
The worse the market, the harder it is to overcome emotions; the lower the buying cost, the better the odds. The reasoning isn't complicated, but the challenge is genuinely doing it.
Feng Di Mai Ru, something that foreign brothers learning Chinese can understand.
Record this moment.
I continue to increase my position in BTC. Not because I believe it will rise. It's because looking back, every time I truly regretted it, it wasn't because I bought incorrectly — it was because I should have bought but didn't. Every time it was 'just wait a bit longer,' and every time it resulted in regret.
Whether it's dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin, indexes, or individual stocks, essentially it’s a bet against your own emotions.
The worse the market, the harder it is to overcome emotions; the lower the buying cost, the better the odds. The reasoning isn't complicated, but the challenge is genuinely doing it.
Feng Di Mai Ru, something that foreign brothers learning Chinese can understand.
Record this moment.
More and more people around me are starting to talk about 'one-person companies'.
I understand this logic, but there’s one thing I want to make clear: most people haven't figured out how much their judgment is worth before quitting their jobs, which is not good.
'Assets that can earn money even while you sleep' — this statement is not wrong, but the process of building this asset is often more tiring, longer, and more uncertain than working for someone else.
Personally, I do not oppose one-person companies; in fact, I aspire to it. But we cannot treat it as a shortcut to escape mediocrity.
The real question is not whether to work for someone else or start a business. It's whether you have something you can do better than 90% of people.
If you do, then go for it. If you don't, changing the model won’t help. It might even lead to faster failure.
I understand this logic, but there’s one thing I want to make clear: most people haven't figured out how much their judgment is worth before quitting their jobs, which is not good.
'Assets that can earn money even while you sleep' — this statement is not wrong, but the process of building this asset is often more tiring, longer, and more uncertain than working for someone else.
Personally, I do not oppose one-person companies; in fact, I aspire to it. But we cannot treat it as a shortcut to escape mediocrity.
The real question is not whether to work for someone else or start a business. It's whether you have something you can do better than 90% of people.
If you do, then go for it. If you don't, changing the model won’t help. It might even lead to faster failure.
How many times has Ethereum died? Is there still a way out this time if I hold on?
Why are my friends still holding on to $ETH?
How many times has Ethereum died? Is there still a way out this time if I hold on?
A friend with traditional industry around me entered the circle at a high point, starting to build a position in ETH from $4000, now it has dropped to just over $1900.
I asked him if he is still holding on?
He said to hold on. After all, I've died many times already.
I didn't comment on him. Because my BTC has also dropped a lot.
Just this sentence from him made me want to seriously count: how many times has Ethereum actually died?
———
I did an incomplete statistic, mainly relying on memory + retrieval.
From 2018 to now, I have counted at least 5 times that Ethereum has been 'declared dead' by the market.
How many times has Ethereum died? Is there still a way out this time if I hold on?
A friend with traditional industry around me entered the circle at a high point, starting to build a position in ETH from $4000, now it has dropped to just over $1900.
I asked him if he is still holding on?
He said to hold on. After all, I've died many times already.
I didn't comment on him. Because my BTC has also dropped a lot.
Just this sentence from him made me want to seriously count: how many times has Ethereum actually died?
———
I did an incomplete statistic, mainly relying on memory + retrieval.
From 2018 to now, I have counted at least 5 times that Ethereum has been 'declared dead' by the market.
The market is still experiencing fluctuations and declines, but the data is starting to shift towards a "beginning bull?"
Previous posts mentioned that the market was like a "black hole" swallowing liquidity, but the latest on-chain data has provided a key reversal signal: the big whales are starting to net buy again.
1. From selling to buying. The annual change rate of the big whales' holdings of Bitcoin has shown a rising trend again. The rise in the purple area indicates that large funds have stopped exiting and are now entering the market.
2. From a cyclical perspective. This change in holdings is generally a typical signal of an "early bull market." History tends to rhyme; this group usually buys heavily in the early and mid-stages and then starts selling when the market reaches a frenzy peak.
3. Conclusion revision. Combined with the massive selling pressure mentioned a few days ago, the current script is very clear. Retail investors and those wavering are panic-selling their chips, while the whales are completing the turnover at the bottom.
Previous posts mentioned that the market was like a "black hole" swallowing liquidity, but the latest on-chain data has provided a key reversal signal: the big whales are starting to net buy again.
1. From selling to buying. The annual change rate of the big whales' holdings of Bitcoin has shown a rising trend again. The rise in the purple area indicates that large funds have stopped exiting and are now entering the market.
2. From a cyclical perspective. This change in holdings is generally a typical signal of an "early bull market." History tends to rhyme; this group usually buys heavily in the early and mid-stages and then starts selling when the market reaches a frenzy peak.
3. Conclusion revision. Combined with the massive selling pressure mentioned a few days ago, the current script is very clear. Retail investors and those wavering are panic-selling their chips, while the whales are completing the turnover at the bottom.
Is there still money in the market?
How come several hundred billion are thrown in and there's not even a sound?
The answer is that the money has come, and a lot of it, but it has all turned into bag holders...
1. In 2025, the market saw an influx of 308 billion dollars. This is much larger than the capital during the last bull market.
2. In 2024, it was "a little push can lead to a big effect"; entering with 10 billion could lift the market cap by 26 billion; in 2025, it is "a mud cow entering the sea"; entering with 308 billion, the market cap has instead shrunk.
3. Why isn't it rising? The selling pressure is too heavy. It is so heavy that even super buyers like MSTR can't turn the tide.
The current market is like a black hole, swallowing any liquidity that comes in with selling pressure.
In other words, before the selling pressure is exhausted, the ability to rise has temporarily been lost.
@币安广场 @币安中文社区 #易理华割肉清仓
How come several hundred billion are thrown in and there's not even a sound?
The answer is that the money has come, and a lot of it, but it has all turned into bag holders...
1. In 2025, the market saw an influx of 308 billion dollars. This is much larger than the capital during the last bull market.
2. In 2024, it was "a little push can lead to a big effect"; entering with 10 billion could lift the market cap by 26 billion; in 2025, it is "a mud cow entering the sea"; entering with 308 billion, the market cap has instead shrunk.
3. Why isn't it rising? The selling pressure is too heavy. It is so heavy that even super buyers like MSTR can't turn the tide.
The current market is like a black hole, swallowing any liquidity that comes in with selling pressure.
In other words, before the selling pressure is exhausted, the ability to rise has temporarily been lost.
@币安广场 @币安中文社区 #易理华割肉清仓
This time really is different, would you dare to buy?
On February 7 at 10 PM, BTC mining difficulty plummeted 11.16%.$BTC
This is the largest single drop since China banned mining in 2021.
Social media exploded instantly. "The miners have all run away" "BTC is going to zero" "Hurry and liquidate"—panic spread like a virus.
But while retail investors are frantically cutting their losses, a group of veterans is quietly doing the opposite: buying the dip.
Why?
Because they remember that it was the same when China banned mining in 2021. Everyone said BTC was finished, but what happened? BTC rose from 29,000 to 69,000, an increase of 138%.
History is repeating itself.
How tragic is the miners' surrender?
This is the largest single drop since China banned mining in 2021.
Social media exploded instantly. "The miners have all run away" "BTC is going to zero" "Hurry and liquidate"—panic spread like a virus.
But while retail investors are frantically cutting their losses, a group of veterans is quietly doing the opposite: buying the dip.
Why?
Because they remember that it was the same when China banned mining in 2021. Everyone said BTC was finished, but what happened? BTC rose from 29,000 to 69,000, an increase of 138%.
History is repeating itself.
How tragic is the miners' surrender?
0209 | Practical Daily Market Highlights
Last Friday, a dip-buying push drove a strong rebound in U.S. stocks, with the Dow breaking 50,000 points for the first time, NVIDIA soaring 7%, and gold and silver rising in a V-shape, while Bitcoin increased by 11%. China's central bank has seen its gold reserves increase for the fifteenth consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 40,000 ounces in January, slightly accelerating the pace of accumulation;
Aster's coin price rebounded, and the market statistics platform reported on the launch status of the past 8 projects, of which 6 projects subsequently went on Binance contracts, while 2 went on the spot section of Binance's main site, regarded as the best launch platform for direct access to Binance. It is currently also the largest derivatives exchange on the BNB chain;
The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan achieved an overwhelming victory, which is favorable for risk assets. The Japanese election staged a 'Trump moment', with the LDP securing 247 seats for a landslide victory. The market is focusing on Saito Saema's proposal for 'super monetary easing': expanding economic stimulus spending, with a focus on investing in AI and semiconductors. Viewed as a macro positive;
Aster's coin price rebounded, and the market statistics platform reported on the launch status of the past 8 projects, of which 6 projects subsequently went on Binance contracts, while 2 went on the spot section of Binance's main site, regarded as the best launch platform for direct access to Binance. It is currently also the largest derivatives exchange on the BNB chain;
The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan achieved an overwhelming victory, which is favorable for risk assets. The Japanese election staged a 'Trump moment', with the LDP securing 247 seats for a landslide victory. The market is focusing on Saito Saema's proposal for 'super monetary easing': expanding economic stimulus spending, with a focus on investing in AI and semiconductors. Viewed as a macro positive;
Why should we say thank you to Yi Lihua?
In the past few days, when Yi Lihua's ETH position was just a line away from liquidation, what I saw most in various groups was not sympathy, but mockery.
-LD is nothing special
-Clearly a ridiculous position
-After missing the peak, still daring to buy at the bottom, greed kills
-All the profits have been given back, and I even lost the principal
But ironically, among these mocking group members, how many were like Yi Lihua in the first half of 2025, starting to build their ETH position from $1800 and precisely escaping at $4700?
The answer is almost none.
Even more ironically, what are those crypto OGs who actually made big money from 2017-2021 doing now?
-LD is nothing special
-Clearly a ridiculous position
-After missing the peak, still daring to buy at the bottom, greed kills
-All the profits have been given back, and I even lost the principal
But ironically, among these mocking group members, how many were like Yi Lihua in the first half of 2025, starting to build their ETH position from $1800 and precisely escaping at $4700?
The answer is almost none.
Even more ironically, what are those crypto OGs who actually made big money from 2017-2021 doing now?
This drop feels more painful than in 2022. Several conclusions can be drawn from the data.
1. The speed has increased by 4 times. On the 83rd day after breaking the 365-day moving average, it only dropped by 6% in 2022, whereas it has now dropped by 23%.
2. Refusing to 'slide down.' Compared to the past slow and painful declines, this time the selling pressure is concentrated and fierce. Extremely fragile, the support level is virtually nonexistent.
$BTC $ETH
1. The speed has increased by 4 times. On the 83rd day after breaking the 365-day moving average, it only dropped by 6% in 2022, whereas it has now dropped by 23%.
2. Refusing to 'slide down.' Compared to the past slow and painful declines, this time the selling pressure is concentrated and fierce. Extremely fragile, the support level is virtually nonexistent.
$BTC $ETH
Why is Hong Kong tightening the issuance of stablecoin licenses?
Why is Hong Kong tightening the issuance of stablecoin licenses?
On February 4, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority signaled that it will issue the first batch of stablecoin licenses in March, but the number will be strictly controlled to 3-5.
In other words, among the 36 applicants, less than 15% will be able to obtain a license.
The global regulatory competition has entered the enforcement stage. However, Hong Kong's 'caution' is unique.
Does 'most compliant' necessarily mean 'most competitive'?
Is this a strategic resolve or strategic hesitation?
[ 01 | What Happened ]
Eddie Yue, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, publicly stated that the first batch of stablecoin licenses will be issued in March, but the number will be 'very few', only 3-5.
On February 4, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority signaled that it will issue the first batch of stablecoin licenses in March, but the number will be strictly controlled to 3-5.
In other words, among the 36 applicants, less than 15% will be able to obtain a license.
The global regulatory competition has entered the enforcement stage. However, Hong Kong's 'caution' is unique.
Does 'most compliant' necessarily mean 'most competitive'?
Is this a strategic resolve or strategic hesitation?
[ 01 | What Happened ]
Eddie Yue, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, publicly stated that the first batch of stablecoin licenses will be issued in March, but the number will be 'very few', only 3-5.
As soon as the words were spoken, the market provided an answer.
👇
On the left is $DBR, and on the right is the Nasdaq. While everyone is shouting "crypto is dead" and flocking to the US stock market for safety, quality assets are quietly rallying.
DBR is the "cash cow" with real blood-making ability in the industry’s cross-chain infrastructure; the Nasdaq represents humanity's most advanced productivity and is my unwavering permanent investment base.
The two seem to be new and old, but there is only one logic: embrace quality assets.
I will continue to follow up on $DRB and share more thoughts and selections about the US stock market. Currently, in this market, only by holding truly valuable things can one sleep peacefully and rise confidently.
👇
On the left is $DBR, and on the right is the Nasdaq. While everyone is shouting "crypto is dead" and flocking to the US stock market for safety, quality assets are quietly rallying.
DBR is the "cash cow" with real blood-making ability in the industry’s cross-chain infrastructure; the Nasdaq represents humanity's most advanced productivity and is my unwavering permanent investment base.
The two seem to be new and old, but there is only one logic: embrace quality assets.
I will continue to follow up on $DRB and share more thoughts and selections about the US stock market. Currently, in this market, only by holding truly valuable things can one sleep peacefully and rise confidently.
Recently, the most heard phrase is 'crypto is dead', including many friends around me who have started researching US stocks.
Gold broke through $5,250, BTC fell below $87K,
various projects have been crashing, rights protection has risen, and the screen is filled with voices saying 'the crypto space has no value'.
However, $DBR earned $24,239 yesterday (January 27).
Over 45% of the funds on Hyperliquid came through deBridge, and the official reserve already holds 4% of the total supply of DBR.
Yes, the projects that should be making money are still quietly making profits.
Crypto is not dead; it's the speculation without business support that has receded.
While everyone is shouting to switch to US stocks, the infrastructure is still quietly doing its job.
When looking at projects, don't just focus on K-lines, don't just look at KOL promotions, look at revenue and market share.
Memes can go to zero, but as long as multi-chain is still there, the demand for cross-chain liquidity will always exist.
Only projects with real income can withstand the bear market.
Gold broke through $5,250, BTC fell below $87K,
various projects have been crashing, rights protection has risen, and the screen is filled with voices saying 'the crypto space has no value'.
However, $DBR earned $24,239 yesterday (January 27).
Over 45% of the funds on Hyperliquid came through deBridge, and the official reserve already holds 4% of the total supply of DBR.
Yes, the projects that should be making money are still quietly making profits.
Crypto is not dead; it's the speculation without business support that has receded.
While everyone is shouting to switch to US stocks, the infrastructure is still quietly doing its job.
When looking at projects, don't just focus on K-lines, don't just look at KOL promotions, look at revenue and market share.
Memes can go to zero, but as long as multi-chain is still there, the demand for cross-chain liquidity will always exist.
Only projects with real income can withstand the bear market.
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