《How to Understand the Market》 Episode 1
When we open the market, we often feel regret every time we see the market drop or rise to a certain point.
Is there a possibility that when the price rises or falls to that range, it is a result of a predetermined trend?
In that case, the outcome is probably already destined (excluding black swan events).
Take $ETH as an example (shanzhai coins are easy to manipulate, and the probability of technical analysis failure is relatively high).
As shown in Figure 1, what can everyone see when looking at this K-line chart?
It seems that besides the crooked red and green bars, there isn’t much else?
Now looking at the purple area in Figure 2, let’s analyze the two charts.
We discovered a characteristic
That is when the K-line candle's body breaks below a certain point of the purple rectangle, it quickly rises again.
Then, the subsequent K-lines at most only test that point, and afterwards, it doesn’t break down further.
So the two bottoms (Figure 3) connected are a relatively effective support.
It is relatively effective
Because when the K-line body breaks below that support, that point is no longer a support and is likely to become a resistance level.
Resistance is the same; if there are two points or more that haven’t been broken through (Figure 4), it is also a relatively effective resistance.
When it breaks through and stands firm (the K-line candle body closes above the resistance, and the second candle or more does not break that position).
Then it means resistance has been broken, if it breaks the previous high and does not reach a new historical high, how high the price can go depends on how high the market enthusiasm is and how much capital is available.
Next is the blue-purple diagonal line in the chart, which is a trend line.
Currently, it is a downward trend.
The downward trend is characterized by:
High points getting lower and low points (possibly) getting lower.
Why do I say possibly getting lower? Because the bottom has support, unless it breaks the support, otherwise the low point remains above that support (the K-line candle’s bottom closes within the support range).
Conversely, the upward trend is characterized by:
High points (possibly) getting higher, and low points getting higher.
Because there is resistance at the top, unless it breaks the resistance, otherwise the high points remain limited below a certain level.

#市场全线看牛？
2u Challenge on the 8th night of 100u.
This afternoon's ETH seems to have entered a volatile market, with no significant rises or falls, remaining within a range.
This has also caused the original 3u in the morning to change to the current 2.6u.
When facing a volatile market, as a trader, if you don't have a good strategy, it's best to just wait and not rush to enter.
I share my lessons as a warning to everyone.

$ETH

#加密用户突破1800万
2u Challenge Day 8 at noon.

After ups and downs, it has returned to 3u. Considering it had been hovering around 2u for the past few days, I guess it's a kind of progress.

Damn, the high point prediction was right.
The stop loss was wrong😭

That's it for today, I'm tired. Back to 2u, for short trading just look at the short term, you can look at a larger trend, but take profit must be realistic.
The instructor's pragmatic approach is still in effect.

The night of 2u challenging 100u.
I was honest
The analysis cycle is too short and has not kept up with the larger trend.

The take profit level in the morning should be around 4107.
The stop loss is around 3889.
Entry is about 3946.
But it's roughly the same.

2u Challenge 100u Seventh Day Afternoon.
The market changed in the morning, ETH broke through the resistance level and stabilized, decisively placing an order.
The specific analysis is in my previous post.

Take Profit 4110
Stop Loss 3908
Entry 3950

2u challenge 100u seventh day morning.
The trend was identified last night, but the stop-loss setting wasn't very good, resulting in waking up to find it triggered the stop-loss and then continued to rise.

2u challenge 100u in the afternoon.
The set short position has taken profit.
From the principal of 3u to almost 4u

ETHU Standard Contract 1 Hour Support and Resistance Chart

The seventh day at noon of the 2u challenge for 100u
Although there wasn't much growth today compared to yesterday, I lost 0.1u during the early morning. But I still have 2.97u left.
However, the losses in the past two days have been much better than at the beginning. It shows that I am making progress.
Let's set a small goal first, 10u.

The sixth night of the 2u challenge of 100u.
Successfully turned yesterday's 2u into 3.3u.

#SUI再创新高
The sixth morning of the 2u challenge to 100u.
Yesterday I took the money to open a grid, and the earnings were pretty good.

#币安LaunchpoolVANA
The fourth night of the 2u challenge to 100u.
Today’s market has made me wonder if what I've learned is actually useless.
Clearly, the analysis in the middle was good, and there were profits, yet I keep triggering stop-loss orders.
Bullshit.

#市场调整后的方向
2u Challenge 100u Day 5 Morning
Yesterday around 4 AM, a sudden dip caused me to get liquidated.
Fortunately, it was a per-position liquidation.
The 5u my brother gave me is now down to less than 3u...
Originally, it was already at 6u on the night of the fourth day...

#USUAL现货即将上线
2u Challenge 100u Fourth Night.
This is today's harvest.
Thanks again to the bro for the 5u gift.
Originally, I could have earned over 2u today, but the stop-loss was not set well, and after it was triggered, it continued to rise. Then, I chased in the middle and lost 0.35u.
Then I kept part of it for the contract and sent the other part to the robot.

#加密市场反弹
2u Challenge 100u Day 4 Morning.
Yesterday it was liquidated, but a kind person gave 5u.