$UNI $SOL $USDC @币安广场 🚨Breaking! Is the Fed's rate cut in June secure? The new chair hasn't even taken office, and the script is already written!
Big news, everyone!
Reuters' latest survey has blown up: Powell is holding out until May, then—Walsh will take over, and a direct rate cut in June!
It's not a 'maybe', it's already on the way.
Master Powell isn't gone yet, and the new chair is already at the door waiting to take on this mess.
But the question arises: Walsh, is he a hawk or a dove?
A few years ago, he was a staunch contractionist, criticizing QE and balance sheet expansion more fiercely than Trump. In the past two years, he suddenly changed his tune, constantly mentioning 'AI boosting productivity'.
Translated into plain language: Inflation can be controlled, rate cuts are possible.
Ironically—while the U.S. economy is clearly warming up, the unemployment rate is as stable as fake data, and inflation stubbornly remains at 3%.
A rate cut at this time? Aren't they afraid of it backfiring?
Bank of America has already sounded the alarm: “Fiscal expansion + rate cuts” = warning of overheating policies.
Anyone with a bit of economic knowledge knows that this combination, historically, is essentially pouring gasoline on a fire.
What's more troublesome is, can those hawks inside the Fed really be suppressed by just one nomination from Walsh?
Harmack and Logan just made tough statements yesterday: “Interest rates must remain unchanged for a long time”, “not yet convinced inflation will return to 2%.”
Once Walsh is in the FOMC, he'll only have one vote. Pushing for a rate cut? His colleagues won't agree first.
The nomination hearing is the first real battle.
But the market is more anxious than anyone else, and has already started trading on the June rate cut in advance.
So the most likely scenario now is: Walsh will cut rates once in June, to satisfy Trump, while nominally continuing the balance sheet reduction, but in reality putting it aside for now.
Keeping face while protecting liquidity—this is already the path of least resistance.
The question is, will inflation really behave?
Will colleagues really keep quiet?
Come on, see you in the comments:
Do you think rates can be cut in June? Is Walsh here to save the market, or to lay a trap? #非农意外强劲 #何时抄底? #美联储降息
Kevin Warsh is here: The moment of change at the Federal Reserve and the defense of your wallet.
Recently, many friends around me have been complaining: Mortgage rates can't come down, prices are still rising, and wages haven't moved.
Everyone is asking: How much longer will Powell torment us?
In the past few days, I saw the news that Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, and I suddenly realized:
We may be witnessing a complete shift in the macro paradigm. Many people only see his pro-Bitcoin label, and some are already shouting that BTC will reach 200,000.
But as an observer who has been in this market for many years, I must pour a bucket of cold water:
If you only see the 'good news', you will likely be harvested in the upcoming 'policy overhaul'.
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