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6.7 Market Analysis
#心诚 #大盘走势

This week, pay attention to three major events:

(1) Will Israel's attack on Hamas trigger a large-scale conflict?

The current negotiations have broken down, and there is still very strong public opinion in Israel to continue the war.
If it is a small-scale conflict, it is fine, but if it is involved in the conflict between Egypt and Iran, it will cause BTC to plummet.
The probability of a large-scale conflict is 30%.

(2) The US PCE data for April will be released on Friday night.
It will be released at 8:30 pm on Friday.
If it is higher than expected, it will be bearish.
If it is lower than expected.

(3) The US Treasury will repurchase US bonds for the first time in more than 20 years.
Starting from Wednesday this week, the US Treasury will launch a series of US bond repurchases, which will indirectly benefit the cryptocurrency circle.
The Treasury will repurchase a large number of treasury bonds, reduce the supply of treasury bonds in the market, thereby pushing up treasury bond prices and lowering yields, which is good for risky assets in the cryptocurrency circle.

5.27 Market Analysis
A new week has begun, and it is the end of the month again. The trend of this week will affect the closing of the monthly line. Last week, after the stimulus of the news, it has been fluctuating widely at a high level. This week, we need to pay attention to whether the weekly level of the market can have a medium-sized positive line to break through 71,600 to repair the attached chart indicator and drive a better trend. In the next two days, it is likely to maintain a wide range of fluctuations between 66,300 and 71,600. If it falls below 66,300, we need to pay attention to the support of the range of 63,000 to 64,000. However, in the face of such support and resistance, we can just buy low and sell high.
ETH was still relatively strong last week. After the stretch, it also consolidated at a high level and oscillated widely. The short-term upper resistance of 3930 and the lower support of 3660 fluctuated in a range. We will focus on the four-hour trend during the day. If it does not break, it will most likely go high again, and then consolidate. If it goes according to my expectations, it will still be an opportunity after consolidation. Pay attention to the upper resistance of 3930~4065 and the lower support of 3660~3794-3730 during the day.

News:
Last week, in order to win votes, Trump said that he would support the self-custody rights of 50 million cryptocurrency holders across the United States, and would make congressmen who oppose cryptocurrency go away. So no matter whether Trump can be elected in the end, the influence and voice of cryptocurrency in the world's political and economic fields are gradually increasing, which is definitely good for the crypto market!

Next week, focus on Friday night at 8:30
The US April core PCE is released, which is bearish if it is higher than expected
If it is lower than expected, it is positive

Sports fan section
Euro Cup: June 14-July 14
America's Cup: June 20-July 14
Paris Olympics: July 26-August 11

Ai section
ChatGPT-5 will be released in June and July this summer
Apple Developer Conference (June 10) may announce the latest AI progress

layer2
If Ethereum's spot ETF is listed, it will be good for the Ethereum series

If it extends further, it is to pay attention to the rwa section and the chain game section

ETC   halved on June 16
#心诚 #BTC走势分析

Focus tonight (2-4 am): ETH ETF approval is finalized
Current sentiment: high probability of approval
If the approval is approved as expected
In the short term, there will be a wave of pull-ups and then a fall
Focus on the pull-up point is 3950-4050
#以太坊ETF批准预期

5.22 Market Analysis
Technical side:
This morning, we analyzed the weekly level. The weekly level focuses on the closing of the past two weeks. Can it stand on 73100 with a medium-sized positive line? If it cannot stand on it, there will still be risks. The intraday will be mainly oscillating. The short-term support below is 69500, the defense below is 67200, and the upper resistance is 71500
Eth is moving too fast in this wave, but it may not be a good thing. There will be a small one-hour retracement during the day, retracement to the support below 3700, and the defense below 3450, and the short-term upper resistance is 3830. If it continues to maintain this position and oscillate without breaking down, there is still a chance to go higher.

News side:
In this wave of market extension, we will find that the cottage has not followed the rise, so the risk at this position begins to increase. Be prepared for both hands, control the position, and take the moving stop profit and stop loss! ! !

The key point of the recent market is whether the ETH ETF can be passed tomorrow. At present, the basis for passing is that the SEC notified the exchange to accelerate the update of the 19B-4 document on the spot Ethereum ETF. If it passes, ETH will continue to rise. Another situation will be as positive as the passage of Bitcoin's ETF. If it is exhausted, it will be negative and start to pull back! If it does not pass, it may be a door! In the early morning, the Federal Reserve officials said that they would wait until the data continued to weaken for 3 to 5 months before considering a rate cut at the end of 24 years, so the gap still needs time! #心诚 #以太坊ETF批准预期

5.21 Market Analysis
Technical side:
Yesterday morning, I kept reminding everyone that a pullback is an opportunity to get on board. At the same time, I reminded everyone that if 67200 can stand firm, it will go above 70,000. After getting up this morning, you will find that it is indeed as we expected. At present, the market has come to the previous pressure zone, so focus on whether this position 73200 can effectively stand firm, and only if the medium-yang line breaks through can it start an acceleration at the weekly level. During the day, it will fluctuate or fluctuate a small pullback. Focus on whether this level can be supported in the morning of July. The lower defense is 67200, and the upper resistance is 73100!
ETH experienced the stimulation of the news last night, which caused a wave of market pull-ups. The market expectations have been formed. Next, focus on whether it can continue. The upper short-term resistance is 3728, the lower support is 3600, and the lower defense is 3450. The market needs to be repaired during the day

News side:
Fed officials said they did not see any reason to raise interest rates.

Dr. Peng raised the approval probability of Ethereum ETF from 25% to 75%. Previously, the market generally believed that Ethereum ETF would not be approved, which means that the SEC has a chance to approve Ethereum ETF, it's just a matter of time!
There are two stages in the approval of Ethereum ETF:
One is the approval of 19B-4, and the other is the approval of S-1. 19B-4 looks like it will be approved, maybe this month. The approval of S-1 may take a few weeks to a few months, but in any case, there is this expectation!

From a big cycle point of view, the global interest rate cut cycle is already underway, and more than a dozen major central banks have cut interest rates.
From now until the end of June, the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the National Bank of Poland will cut interest rates.
The Federal Reserve may start the first interest rate cut in September. Although the interest rate has been cut, the global base interest rate is still high. After several interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, it may still be 3%. After the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this year, it is estimated that there will still be 4.8%. The era of low interest rates is gone, and the golden age of high-risk assets has ended!
So in the crypto market, we must also lower our expectations and go with the flow!
#大盘走势 #以太坊ETF批准预期

5.20 Market Analysis
Technical aspect:
From the weekly chart, BTC closed with a beautiful positive line, so this position is easy to start an acceleration, but we should focus on the intraday retracement in the past two days. The support below the retracement is 65,000 and 64,000. If these two positions are not broken, you can still get on the train. The defense position below is 63,000, and the resistance above is 67,200. If it can be effectively broken, there is a chance to touch 70,000, so we should focus on whether the daily level can start a benign rise at this position, and the subsequent continuity.
Eth
Ethereum's trend is relatively weak. If it wants to start an upward trend after breaking through this position, focus on the support below 3042, and prevent the hand position of 3000 from falling below. The short-term upper resistance is 3140, but there will be a small correction during the day

The current market is getting closer and closer to traditional finance, so it will become more and more stable and professional in the future. Therefore, the focus is on layout and reducing frequent operations

News:
Sector: AI sector (Nvidia's first quarter financial report on 22, the release of gpt5, and the Apple conference on June 10       Nvidia's stock will have shareholder repurchases, causing the stock to rise, providing graphics cards and chips to miners), sports sector, Ethereum sector, sol sector

Large amount unlocking: Pyth unlocks about 1 billion US dollars, etc. (don't touch it first)

No important data will be released this week, and more Fed officials will speak. The focus is on Powell's speech at 3:30 am tomorrow.

5.23 sec will review the application of Ethereum ETFs such as ARK!

From a macro-cyclical perspective, the global interest rate cut cycle is already underway, with more than a dozen major central banks cutting interest rates.
From now until the end of June, the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the National Bank of Poland will cut interest rates.
The Federal Reserve may start its first interest rate cut in September. Although interest rates have been cut, the global base interest rate is still high. After several interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, it may still be 3%. After the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this year, it is estimated that there will still be 4.8%. The era of low interest rates is gone, and the golden age of high-risk assets has ended!
So in the crypto market, we must also lower our expectations and go with the flow!
#BTC走势分析 #心诚

This time, the CPI data was in line with expectations and caused the market to rebound, but we will find that large traditional financial institutions have successively disclosed their Bitcoin holdings, which is a recognition of mainstream capital. Some ETF institutions such as BlackRock represent the United States and even the world's mainstream capital, and this is just the beginning!

Here are 6 cryptocurrencies that are called "100x altcoins":
1.WIF dogwifhat (WIF) - MEME coin on the Solana chain.
2.SOL Solana - Founded by Qualcomm, Intel and Dropbox engineers in late 2017, it aims to provide scalability in a single-chain delegated proof-of-stake protocol. SOL is the native token of the Solana blockchain.
3.CFX Conflux Network - A scalable decentralized blockchain network that uses a special tree graph consensus algorithm. CFX is the native token of the Conflux Network.
4.SHIB SHIB (Shiba Inu Coin) - A token established by the Shiba Inu community that aims to be a Dogecoin alternative on Ethereum.
5.FLOKI Floki lnu - A cryptocurrency created by Shiba Inu community fans and members to launch multiple practical projects.
6.NEAR NEAR Protocol - A decentralized application platform that runs on the Nightshade proof-of-stake consensus mechanism.

2024-5-16
$IOTA - IOTA launches IOTA 2.0 public testnet.

$CYBER - Cyberconnect mainnet launches and undergoes branding.

$BLUR - Blast updates airdrop schedule, to be conducted on June 26.

$XAI - XAI announces new brand and website, says big news will be announced soon.

$PEPE $WIF - DonAlt posts that MEME coin will crash, saying it has reached the top of the cycle.

$SEI - Sei proposes v2 upgrade, introducing high-performance parallelized Ethereum virtual machine.

$SOL - Robinhood (US financial company) launches Solana staking in Europe.

$ZETA - ZetaChain announces ZetaChain 2.0, proposal will be submitted to the community for voting soon.

$PSTAKE - pSTAKE Finance announces partnership with Babylon to build BTC liquid staking solution.

$LDO - LidoDA updated reGOOSE vision. Will be discussed on Lido DAO forum in the next few days.

5.16 Market Analysis

Technical side:
Yesterday, stimulated by the CPI data, the market rebounded. We reminded everyone last week that there would be a change in the market in the middle of the month. Today, the downward trend has been broken. In the day, we focus on it to make a retracement. The lower support of the retracement is 63,000-64,000. The magnitude of the retracement determines the continuity of the market. 63,000 cannot be broken to start a healthy rise. Then, if it continues to fluctuate in the range of 64,000 to 63,000 and does not break, we can increase our position by 10%. The upper resistance of 66,800 must be broken to touch the previous high!
ETH is relatively weak. In the next day, focus on the range of 2969 to 3040. If Ethereum does not break at this position, it will also face directional choices. After breaking through 3040, the upper resistance is 3140!
For intraday retracements, you can pay attention to sol, ondo, jup, tnsr, and ssv.

Currently, the entire position is recommended to be around 50%-60%, so control the position well, so that there are coins when it rises and oil when it falls.

News:
CPI data released last night
The unadjusted CPI annual rate in April was 3.4%, in line with expectations!
The monthly CPI rate after seasonal adjustment in April was expected to be 0.4%, and the announced rate was 0.3%
CPI data shows that the process of cooling inflation is still continuing, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has greatly increased!

ETFs are in an overall inflow state

Today's Israeli-Palestinian negotiations focus on whether there is a reconciliation

5.16 News Review

The US House of Representatives plans to vote on the cryptocurrency market structure bill FIT21 next week

Floki DAO has voted to pass a proposal to destroy more than 15.2 billion FLOKI

#BTC走势分析

The new coins recently launched on BN are good in terms of fundamentals, underlying technology, popularity, and institutions, but the trend of this wave of new coins is extremely consistent~~Falling

After going online, they first suck blood (the liquidity of the market is originally insufficient), increase the market value, and then unlock a large amount. This wave of market conditions has begun to abandon the consensus of the previous wave~~Speculating on new but not old, so we will find that the gameplay has changed

So the requirements for this industry will become higher and higher, including market awareness, investment research expertise, emotional control, etc.

The market sentiment has begun to oppose VC, so I personally think that these tokens need time to experience the verification of the market before they can rise better!

#美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布 #心诚 $BTC

The CPI data released at 20:30 tonight on May 15th is expected to be 3.4%. Higher than expected is bearish, lower than expected is bullish.
Focus on whether the CPI data can promote the process of interest rate cuts
#BTC走势分析 #心诚

The US market is closed over the weekend, and it is normal for funds in the market to be exhausted. Let's focus on the policy side next:
1. The probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in June is 3.5% (interest rate decision time: 2:00 am on June 13)
2. The US Congress may vote on new legislation for the crypto industry before the end of May
3. The Thai Securities and Exchange Commission is considering adjusting the capital reserves of digital assets
4. The Financial Supervisory Service of Korea: It has confirmed that the token delisting standards will be included in the "Virtual Asset User Protection Act"
[Macro News]
1. The US one-year inflation rate is expected to be 3.5% in May, the highest since November last year.
2. Fed Kashkari: The threshold for another rate hike is high, but this possibility cannot be ruled out. Fed Bostic: It is expected that the Fed may only cut interest rates once later this year.
3. Sources said that the Israeli military's military operations in Rafah will last about 2 months. The United States issued a geomagnetic storm warning, which will last until the 12th.
4. Apple is close to reaching an agreement with OpenAI to apply ChatGPT to iPhone
5. On May 22, Nvidia released its first quarter financial report. If the revenue is higher than expected, it will be good for the AI ​​sector

If the second round of bull market begins, various sectors will be active in turn, and many currencies may rise 5 to 10 times:
1.
AI sector, including ARKM, AR, RNDR, FET, AGIX, NEAR, LPT, NFP, WLD
2.
meme sector, such as BONK, WIF, PEPE, FLOKI, BOME
3.
SOL ecosystem, including SOL, JUP, RAY, JTO
4.
Ondo in the RWA sector
5.
ETH ecosystem, including ETHFI and SSV
6.
BTC's second-layer network STX
7.
Game finance sector, such as YGG, GALA, MAVIA, IMX
8.
Public chain sector, including DOT, FTM, MATIC, SUI, SEI, APT
9.
Halving sector, ETC and LTC

What kind of coins have the opportunity to increase by more than 10 times:

1. Tokens with relatively small market capitalization in major tracks

2. Invested by large institutions such as Coinbase and A16Z

3. Full circulation of chips, no risk of unlocking selling pressure

4. The project party is working, and the official push is updated from time to time

5. Technical resistance to decline, the fastest rebound

#BTC走势分析 #心诚 $BTC

2024.5.9 Hot Event Analysis
1: The decline in the past two days is mainly due to Grayscale's withdrawal of the Auntie Futures ETF + the US House of Representatives voted to overturn SEC rules to prevent strictly regulated financial companies from holding BTC and cryptocurrencies

2: Bitcoin 57,000-60,000, Ethereum 2950-2859 is still a low-absorption range, and it rebounded quickly after the pin. This month's operation fixed investment is full of bullets, hold the chips, control the position, and wait for the market to take off

3: Wall Street has a heavy position of 5 billion call options, and Bitcoin is expected to rise to 100,000u in September. The general election will be held on November 5. According to the last general election and the last one, the positive factors will be gradually released in three months. In the presidential election year, June to August is the second strongest three months of the year

4: This time the market falls again, the medium and long-term currencies for bottom-fishing $ONDO $SSV $TRU $ETHFI

#心诚 $BTC

Let's sort out the sectors and directions I will focus on next:

1. AI sector
The AI ​​narrative is also the narrative that everyone has talked about the most in the past two days. The main reason is that the AI ​​narrative has several clear catalysts:

NVIDIA Earnings on May 22;
Apple WWDC 2024 on June 10 also released some additional AI-related content;
ChatGPT 5 may be released this summer, and the GPT version of the search engine is also coming;
Google I/O Conference on May 14

In essence, this is a science of attention. That is, events generate expectations, expectations generate market attention, and market attention drives prices up.

2. Solana Section
① In the past few weeks, 12,000 new tokens were issued on SOL every day
② Most new projects occurred on Pump, and 600,000 tokens were issued in 45 days
③ Pump's annualized revenue is currently 128 million US dollars, entering the ranks of unicorns

DEX= $JUP , MEV=$JTO
$JUP is currently doing more than just DEX, it is working hard to become the front end of the entire Solana ecosystem.

In addition, there are many things on Solana, including Depin (io.net), cross-chain bridge ($ZEUS) with BTC (BRC20, RUNES), RWA, etc., which are all interesting concepts

3. ETH Section
It is highly likely that the ETF will not pass in May, but there is a chance in August. According to GCR's point of view, he thinks that the ETH ETF may be at the end of 24 or 25.

4. Sports + Fans
Similar to the previous hype about the World Cup, the Summer Olympics and the European Cup have similar hype expectations. Like the AI ​​narrative, this hype is triggered by large-scale external events.

5. MEME
MEME is like looking for gold in shit. I think $WIF and $PEPE both have the opportunity to become $SHIB-level memes in this cycle.

6. BlackRock
BlackRock's layout for Crypto is also something that can easily attract market attention. It mainly does ETFs and RWAs (and some infrastructure). BTC ETF has been approved, and the mainstream target of RWA is $ONDO .

#心诚 #5月市场关键事件

$ETC There are still 24 days until the halving, and the production is expected to be reduced on June 3.

At present, etc has begun to move at the bottom. If the support of 25 is not broken, you can intervene. The dealer will most likely take advantage of this favorable expectation and increase shipments in advance.
#ETH #心诚