Countdown to the 'Crazy Altseason' in the Cryptocurrency Circle: Day Eighteen
Countdown to the 'Crazy Altseason' in the Cryptocurrency Circle: Day Eighteen
1. Definition and Historical Patterns of Altseason 1.1 The Concept and Criteria of Altseason Altseason refers to the period in the cryptocurrency market when most funds shift from Bitcoin (BTC) to alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins), usually resulting in a rapid and dramatic rise in altcoin prices. During this period, altcoin prices may rise over 100% within weeks, and some coins may even achieve thousands of percent in gains. Blockchain Center defines Altseason as: when 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day rolling timeframe, it marks the beginning of Altseason. Its Altseason index rose in March 2024 and January 2025, but did not last long enough to meet the full Altseason criteria. CoinMarketCap's Altseason index has currently risen to 57-58, significantly increasing by 11 points from the previous day, indicating that we are approaching the comprehensive Altseason eagerly anticipated by investors. When this index reaches 75 or higher, it indicates that at least 75% of the top altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days, meaning we officially enter Altseason.
The countdown to the 'Crazy Altcoin Season' has begun: Day nineteen
Bitcoin's dominance may peak and decline: Bitcoin (BTC) may have already experienced significant gains and is currently in a phase of high-level consolidation or slight pullback, with funds beginning to flow out of BTC in search of other opportunities.
Narrative and sector rotation heating up: Projects in specific fields such as DeFi, AI, Metaverse, blockchain games, and RWA (real-world assets) are starting to attract attention, with social media and community discussions on the rise.
How to prepare for the 'Crazy Altcoin Season'?
In-depth research, choose quality targets: Focus on leaders: Prioritize leading projects in various sectors that have solid fundamentals, strong communities, and clear roadmaps. On-chain activity: Pay attention to which chains are experiencing rapid increases in ecosystem activity (such as Solana, Base, Sui, Ton, etc.), as funds often flow to the most active places. $BTC
A decline can never completely eliminate the bulls; only an increase can allow the bulls to take profits.
Mate老陈
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Bitcoin liquidation chart:
My goodness, bulls are really indestructible. The long positions are larger than the short positions again, and this is the case of continuous long clearing
8w9 has a liquidation quota of nearly 1.8 billion. It was not that much in the morning
There are only two situations now:
One, the dog dealer opened a long order in advance, and the positive non-agricultural data boosted the shorts in the evening
Two, continue to clear the longs, if you don’t kill them all, you can’t go up #加密市场回调
Powell's press conference: 1. Interest rate outlook: We are gradually approaching the time when we can cut interest rates, but we have not reached that point yet. If inflation falls as expected and the labor market remains stable, interest rates will be cut as early as September. In-depth discussions on interest rate cuts were indeed held at this meeting. A 50 basis point interest rate cut is not currently under consideration. Different scenarios can be imagined, ranging from zero interest rate cuts to multiple interest rate cuts. Interest rates will be maintained unchanged or acted earlier depending on economic conditions. 2. Inflation outlook: There is no need to focus entirely on inflation. We are confident that the 2% target will be achieved. The scope of inflation decline has expanded and long-term inflation expectations seem to be firmly anchored. The upside risks of inflation have weakened. 3. Election impact: If interest rates are cut in September, it should be non-political. Any decisions made before, during and after the election will be based on a balance of data and risks, and we will never try to make policies based on election results that have not yet been released. 4. Economic situation: The data does not show signs of economic weakness or overheating, or there are some signs of weakness, but the overall situation is not bad. We have the ability to deal with economic weakness. The unemployment rate remains low, the labor market has become more balanced, and the downside risks facing the current job market are real.
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