#BTC☀ Reminder on the 21st that there is a need for a small level pullback, which has now been realized. The reason can be found in the article from the 21st.
#BTC☀ This pullback can be said to be widely anticipated, as those who haven’t entered are waiting for a pullback to do so, and the bears who need to add positions have also added. Recently, the most common information in the plaza is either a hundred thousand liquidation, or a sharp drop to break even or become wealthy.
But currently, objectively speaking, unless there is a sudden waterfall due to news, a significant level pullback will still need some time. The key here is whether it will break above 98,500 again; if it breaks, the probability of a small level pullback will be limited in depth, requiring dynamic observation.

This article is purely hand-typed and will be updated irregularly.
First, let's talk about misconceptions:
1. Heavy position
The contract traders in the crypto world love to read stories about getting rich quickly from heavy positions. In reality, betting everything is a form of wisdom. Even if one is on the right trend, very few can make it to the end. Most end up worn out or forced to exit due to liquidation. This dual torture of money and psychology means that 90% of people cannot achieve a successful exit. There were successful individuals in the past like the Bitcoin King, and now there are gamblers like Liang Zai. Most people can't even achieve the latter. When 3,000 turns into 300,000, it's not just about closing positions; they may also go long and end up liquidated, similar to the Luna incident that left many casualties.

#BTC☀ There is still a difference of 500 to reach 100,000. Currently, apart from the first support at the hourly level (95,600), there are not many key points worth analyzing.

#BTC☀ This wave of increase was highly likely confirmed in the article on the 18th. On the 19th and 20th, it was suggested that the bears should run away, but the speed and strength of this time were also unexpected for most people.
Currently, apart from various positive news, the bears are most afraid of two points of the leek indicator.
The first point is that friends and family around me are starting to pay attention to BTC. New leeks are different from old leeks; old leeks fear high prices, thinking everything is high. They wait to buy at 60,000, then 40,000, then 70,000 to buy at 50,000, and when it reaches 80,000, they wonder what to buy or just sell. New leeks are different. Take Old Wang, for example; he just entered the crypto world during the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, buying at 60,000, then 50,000, and when it hit 30,000, he leveraged his position to buy. This is the reality.

#BTC☀ The previously mentioned range of 95000-100000 has been completed, and currently, as long as the price does not drop below 93000, we still do not consider it a top or a pullback.
The large level of 86500-94000 has formed a terminal wedge, and there is also divergence in volume and price. It is expected that the market will soon experience a pullback, which is a pullback, not necessarily a top. The top needs to be observed dynamically and not predicted.

The 15-minute level currently has not shown obvious support, it is recommended to stay out of the market. Lao Wang is neither bullish nor bearish, and only trades in the direction of the trend. It is better not to participate before there is obvious support.
Daily sharing of 15-minute trend trading, hourly and daily levels #行情分析 . Like and follow to avoid getting lost in the market.

#BTC☀ Continuous reminders over the past two days indicate that the downward trend has ended, the reason being that on the 18th at midnight, the four-hour closing was above 92000.
A week of continuous ups and downs has slowly worn down the confidence of both bulls and bears, but no matter how long the oscillation lasts, there is only one direction. Whoever enters the recovery phase first will have an infinitely close probability of occupying the highs and lows, and the previously fallen soldiers will also rise again.
The liquidation price for short positions above is around 95000-100000; until we break below 88600, no one can determine where the top is. This range is not small, as the bulls have sent out a large number of soldiers' chips, and without sufficient profit from the rise, there is no point in the bulls closing their positions.

Yesterday was another wide fluctuation, a night of battle between bulls and bears.
The previous article mentioned two key positions, 92000 and 88700. Whoever stands above these positions first, the market is likely to continue in that direction. The bulls stood above 92000 at midnight in the four-hour level closing and repeatedly pulled back without breaking the previous low.
Now the pressure is on the bears, most bear liquidation prices are concentrated between 95000-100000. Before the price breaks below 89300, the probability of reaching this range is still quite high.
The 15m band still mainly favors the bulls, with the first stop loss at 90200. Breaking below that only indicates that the bulls are temporarily weak, and it does not mean that one can short.

#BTC☀ Since the highest point of 93400, it has been oscillating widely until now. I wonder if friends doing trend trading have been shaken out.
After a week of ups and downs, the four-hour level has shown obvious support and resistance levels. Why look at the four-hour level? Because the support and resistance at 15m and 1h are ineffective for this wave of market.
So if the four-hour level breaks 88700, a callback is highly likely.
If the four-hour closing stabilizes at 92000, the market is highly likely to continue rising.
Currently, the MACD at the four-hour level is close to the zero axis, which is a battleground for bulls and bears, it can go down or up, bulls are slightly stronger, in fact, we need to wait for a break or a breakthrough for better right-side trading.

Bulls are strong, bears are shrinking.
First stop loss 90200
Second stop loss 88700
The one-hour closing price is above 91900, breaking the downward trend.
#15 minute band

Abnormal coin holding data: a dangerous signal of whale monopoly
In-depth analysis of PNUT's holdings shows an extremely unbalanced state: the total amount of tokens in the first-level pool is only more than 6 million, but more than 10 addresses hold more than 6 million tokens, and a large number of addresses hold hundreds of thousands to millions. This extremely concentrated holding structure indicates that the market is facing huge selling pressure.

Liquidity anomaly: the hidden logic behind the surge
The liquidity changes of PNUT’s primary pool revealed obvious signs of manipulation:
- Surge phase: Liquidity continues to decrease, the pool becomes thinner and thinner, leading to drastic price fluctuations

The first support level for four hours has been broken. If the closing line at 12 o'clock is below 67900, it confirms the start of a pullback. The shallower the pullback, the higher the price in the later stage.

First you have knowledge, then you have methods, make bold guesses, and then verify them carefully
Many people have been going around in circles for more than ten years, and the gold wire frames have been replaced with reading glasses without a continuously profitable trading system. In the end, they attribute all their failed trades to their mentality problems.
Most traders refuse to admit that they use factors such as entry time, trading time, backtesting of various strategy systems, hours of watching the market... to deny technical problems, and some even think that technology has no It’s useful, but the fundamentals are useless. This market is short-term, with most swing players and very few long-term players. If technology doesn’t work, what’s the use?

There must be knowledge before there can be methods.
The conditions for entering the cryptocurrency market are low, and the capital threshold is low. You can enter with a phone number and 100 RMB of capital. Taking A-shares as an example, the proportion of accounts with less than 100,000 in 23 years is 72%. In the cryptocurrency circle, it is very likely to reach 92% or even more.
Small capital means small long-term returns, so it cannot be held for a long time. For small capital, only short-term transactions can improve capital utilization and thus achieve personal expectations. Most people here have realized that short-term trading has high risks and a small profit and loss ratio, but due to funding issues, they cannot engage in long-term trading. It has nothing to do with technology. It is like everyone knows that working for a part-time job has more stable income than starting a business, but they still choose starting a business with greater risks.