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From the perspective of commodities, next week's CPI data is not good, but crude oil prices show that inflation will slow down. What's worse is that the latest wage growth exceeded expectations, and the impact of the economy on inflation has become uncertain. This is the key reason for this decline. The market's confidence in the decline in inflation has decreased, but due to the unpredictability of the data, the market must verify the accuracy of the prediction. In addition, the Fed's interest rate decision is approaching, and the market needs to pay attention to the Fed's latest ideas. Therefore, there are many variables. It is difficult for the market to continue to fall before it becomes clear. After the CPI and the Fed's interest rate decisions, a new market will unfold. Good luck 🤣

It seems that inflation data is still dominant. It is better to be pessimistic when making trading plans. If you are a little optimistic, you will get beaten. Damn it. 🌚

Today's non-farm data is very strange. The unemployment rate has risen, but the number of employed people has increased significantly, and wages have also increased significantly. There is no logic. However, when trading, you cannot analyze whether there is logic or not. You can only look at the guidance. The guidance given by this non-farm data is no guidance. The market will pull back to bottom out, and then rebound, waiting for next week's inflation data. At present, next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision is particularly important. It is necessary to clarify how the Federal Reserve views the current situation, what views it has on the future, and whether expectations have changed. This is very important. The change will definitely happen next week, and then it will be another bloody storm.

It was expected to reach 72,000 yesterday, but after the market weakened, I took short-term profits and exited the market, and bought the bottom at the bottom, and continued to take short-term profits and exit. I did not expect that the main force would pull it to 72,000 today, so this is the unpredictability of the market. Of course, I did not take advantage of this wave of pull-up, and even shorted to break even, but it was profitable overall, and it also avoided yesterday's decline. Many people would say that it would have been fine if they had just held on to their longs yesterday. This is a way of thinking that ignores risks. If you had held on to your longs yesterday, if the main force dumped the market and shorted today, you would be miserable. Even if the market is pulled up today, it will still be profitable overall. The core of trading is certainty, not profit margin. Living long is more important than anything else.

The risk of rising prices lies in the realization of the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the increase will be very rapid, but the realization does not mean that the interest rate cut will occur specifically, but that the basic expectation will be locked. Short sellers need to avoid events or financial data that can lock in the expectation of interest rate cuts. Once the expectation is established, the bull trend will be very fierce, directly reaching the top range of this bull market, and the bull market will basically be over.

In fact, a lot of expectations for macro data have been digested. The pressure to break new highs in the future will of course still be the macro data, but based on the current price, the positive expectations have obviously been over-consumed. I personally judge that the expectations for employment and economic indicators have been basically exhausted. The market has tacitly accepted that the economy is cooling down and employment is weak. The final boost will be this Friday's unemployment rate. If Friday's data is in line with expectations or negative, the market's correction pressure will increase. Before the interest rate decision and inflation data are released next week, the pressure to break through the historical high will be enormous. Even if there is an unexpected breakthrough, it will fall back quickly. The launch of the Ethereum ETF will be later this month, which paves the way for the market bottom, so orders are difficult to make. The main force has been over-consuming expectations, which is a very strong trading method. When expectations end or reverse, they will reverse quickly, which is very painful for participants with low market sensitivity or slow reaction. Generally, the most difficult node to operate is the node of this kind of grand narrative transition. If you are not experienced enough, it is best to wait and see.

The impact of pce is limited. The focus is on the non-farm data next Friday. The options market is currently bullish.

This market is very impetuous, and not many people want to make money in a continuous and stable manner, so only a few people can make money.

With Ethereum expected to land next month, or under a bearish macroeconomic situation, the market may experience a sharp correction. This correction is healthy. The upward pressure is too great at present, and a correction is needed to accumulate momentum. This is the consensus of the main players.

After the Mentougou project was launched, only the Ethereum ETF is left. There are fewer and fewer risks in the cryptocurrency circle, which is a good thing for the market. A market with less uncertainty is more attractive to capital. From the current perspective, it will take a few months to fully digest these events. After the Ethereum ETF is passed next month, there may also be selling pressure from Grayscale, and the market will continue to face pressure. Therefore, we must be cautious in these months. The superposition of important data and events makes the market unpredictable.

People with leverage of more than 5 times, drawdown of more than 5%, and a win rate of less than 90%, no matter how much the rate of return is, are garbage and worthless in my eyes.

The current market is very strange. After the Ethereum ETF was good, no incremental funds entered the currency circle. Instead, existing funds entered Ethereum, creating the illusion that Ethereum was strong. Except for meme, all coins weakened to varying degrees. The actual situation is overall weakening, which shows that the main force is not optimistic about the current price and is unwilling to participate in the current speculation. The current market will fall back quickly after the good news is implemented. The upward pressure is greater than the downward pressure, but due to some expected positive support, the decline will be limited. The main force is just waiting for some minor negative news, and then it will come out in full force to strangle the bulls. My judgment on the current market trend is It is a neutral shock. Any positive or negative news will cause unilateral rapid fluctuations. However, after the subsequent Ethereum ETF is launched, the bull space will become narrower and narrower. Until the interest rate cut is implemented, the top of this bull market will be basically established, and then it will enter a long shock cycle. Of course, the premise is that the economy has a soft landing without an economic recession or other black swans. If there is a hard landing or a black swan, the bear market will come quickly. This is the corresponding risk of overpriced prices, hanging over your head at any time. You must have a sense of crisis when trading in the middle and late stages of the bull market. Even so, most people will be buried between the bull and bear transitions and become fertilizer for this market.

My daily income is stable now, so I am extremely risk-averse. I will not do anything that may lead to a margin call or a large drawdown. No matter how great the temptation is, I will not participate. I will be satisfied as long as I make certain profits every day and do my own trading well. Everything else has nothing to do with me.

Sabie is a copycat

One view is that as long as Bitcoin has not reached its peak, there will be no altcoin explosion. In addition, Bitcoin needs to be in the top range without any negative factors, and it needs to maintain for a relatively long period of time. Only when these points are met will the altcoin general rise start. Otherwise, there will be no altcoin season. The future altcoin market may be similar to A-shares, that is, sector rotation, hype concepts, such as ai, meme, rwa, l2, l3, re-staking, etc. There will be a wave of hype when there are themes and projects, and then there will be a mess. The past thinking is no longer applicable to the current market. The expectations of altcoins were basically synchronized with Bitcoin before, but now they are not synchronized, or even the opposite. The currency circle used to be a whole, but now the currency circle may be divided into Bitcoin and others.

Risk ranking: BTC is less than POW, less than L1, less than others

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