链上币圈
@web06016
入圈7年，热爱加密行业的gril，BNB私募投资者，并一直持有。微博:链上币圈。主要投资数据分析，趋势指引，消息面分析，技术面分析，信息整理。帮散户朋友提供行情参考。
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❤️I'm back, my dears. I haven't updated recently because of something. I will update more later.
I'm here to recharge your faith. It seems that the faith that needs to be recharged now is not #BTC, but #ETH.
The listing of ETH spot ETF will inevitably bring a wave of strong selling pressure🛩️, which we can predict in advance. Grayscale's#ETHTrust was established in the last cycle. It is not only large in size (more than 2.6 million ETH), but also extremely low in cost. The "unrealized profits" before the listing of the ETF are even much greater than the original BTC ETF. It is impossible for so many large and small investors to be a solid block and all be HOLDers. Once someone rushes ahead, it will inevitably affect the emotions that are still wavering and hesitant.
But the faster the sell-off, the less sustainable it will be. As the saying goes, short pain is worse than long pain. ETH after surviving this stage is still worth looking forward to.
As shown in the figure, ETH's MVRV data
In the first two cycles, ETH-MVRV can reach or even exceed 4, while the current ETH-MVRV is only 1.5 as of July 25 (BTC-MVRV is currently 2.1), which means that the unrealized profit is only 50% relative to the average turnover cost on the chain of ETH, which can be said to be still undervalued in the bull market cycle.
If we assume that ETH-MVRV can also reach 4 in this cycle, according to the current ETH Realized Price (Note: This value is dynamically changing), the price of ETH will reach $8,420.
Even if ETH-MVRV can only reach 3 in this round, the price of ETH can reach $6,315. From the perspective of profit and loss ratio, it seems to be better than BTC, especially for those who have little principal and missed the rise of BTC.
(PS: Since it is "carving a boat", it means that it may not necessarily be achieved, but from the analysis of previous data, there is a certain probability)
I'm here to recharge your faith. It seems that the faith that needs to be recharged now is not #BTC, but #ETH.
The listing of ETH spot ETF will inevitably bring a wave of strong selling pressure🛩️, which we can predict in advance. Grayscale's#ETHTrust was established in the last cycle. It is not only large in size (more than 2.6 million ETH), but also extremely low in cost. The "unrealized profits" before the listing of the ETF are even much greater than the original BTC ETF. It is impossible for so many large and small investors to be a solid block and all be HOLDers. Once someone rushes ahead, it will inevitably affect the emotions that are still wavering and hesitant.
But the faster the sell-off, the less sustainable it will be. As the saying goes, short pain is worse than long pain. ETH after surviving this stage is still worth looking forward to.
As shown in the figure, ETH's MVRV data
In the first two cycles, ETH-MVRV can reach or even exceed 4, while the current ETH-MVRV is only 1.5 as of July 25 (BTC-MVRV is currently 2.1), which means that the unrealized profit is only 50% relative to the average turnover cost on the chain of ETH, which can be said to be still undervalued in the bull market cycle.
If we assume that ETH-MVRV can also reach 4 in this cycle, according to the current ETH Realized Price (Note: This value is dynamically changing), the price of ETH will reach $8,420.
Even if ETH-MVRV can only reach 3 in this round, the price of ETH can reach $6,315. From the perspective of profit and loss ratio, it seems to be better than BTC, especially for those who have little principal and missed the rise of BTC.
(PS: Since it is "carving a boat", it means that it may not necessarily be achieved, but from the analysis of previous data, there is a certain probability)
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Can the magical “three lines in one” reproduce the “magic”? Can you get rich by using metaphysics to speculate in cryptocurrencies?
Behind most of the data I share, there is an objective logic support, whether it is the chip structure, the turnover cost, or the holding time, etc. Based on these data, we can analyze the emotions and psychology of different groups of investors (LTH/STH) to determine the changes in trends and cycles. Only this "three-line integration" indicator, I define it as a "magical" metaphysical indicator.
The essence of this indicator is to use the BTC halving day as the starting point of time. When the MVRV trends of nearly three cycles are superimposed together, we will find that the trends of the three curves are highly synchronized. Friends who have read my top tweets should know that the reason why it is called "magical" is because it is very accurate! The reason why it is called "metaphysical" is that there is no objective logical support behind it.
The essence of this indicator is to use the BTC halving day as the starting point of time. When the MVRV trends of nearly three cycles are superimposed together, we will find that the trends of the three curves are highly synchronized. Friends who have read my top tweets should know that the reason why it is called "magical" is because it is very accurate! The reason why it is called "metaphysical" is that there is no objective logical support behind it.
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Mining Pulse value fluctuations indicate the bottom and recovery signals of the BTC market
Mining Pulse is an indicator that measures the mining speed of miners. It mainly reflects the deviation between the average block interval of 14 days and the target time (10 minutes). Specifically, Mining Pulse can help us understand the following points:
Deviation represents the speed difference:
A negative value means the actual block time is faster than the target time, and a positive value means the actual block time is slower than the target time.
Negative values mean:
🔹Faster block times: If Mining Pulse shows negative values, it means blocks are being mined faster than expected.
🔹Hash rate growth: This usually happens when the network hash rate is growing faster than the difficulty is adjusted upward. That is, more computing power (miners) are joining, resulting in shorter block generation times.
Deviation represents the speed difference:
A negative value means the actual block time is faster than the target time, and a positive value means the actual block time is slower than the target time.
Negative values mean:
🔹Faster block times: If Mining Pulse shows negative values, it means blocks are being mined faster than expected.
🔹Hash rate growth: This usually happens when the network hash rate is growing faster than the difficulty is adjusted upward. That is, more computing power (miners) are joining, resulting in shorter block generation times.
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How much impact does mining cost have on the lower limit of BTC price?
Some friends have misunderstandings about "whether mining costs affect BTC prices". They believe that in the current capital era, the proportion of BTC in the hands of miners in the entire circulation market is very small, so whether miners sell or not does not affect the price trend of BTC.
Here I can talk about my personal opinion. First of all, the mining cost has no effect on the "upper limit" of BTC's price, which is beyond doubt; but it will greatly affect the "lower limit" of BTC's price. The logic behind this is not that miners will sell or not sell their chips when the cost price reaches it, but it lies in the psychological factors on the market demand side.
Here I can talk about my personal opinion. First of all, the mining cost has no effect on the "upper limit" of BTC's price, which is beyond doubt; but it will greatly affect the "lower limit" of BTC's price. The logic behind this is not that miners will sell or not sell their chips when the cost price reaches it, but it lies in the psychological factors on the market demand side.
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BTC price hit 58,000, which pushed STH-MVRV to 0.9, but the on-chain data will not be updated until midnight GMT. Don't panic, my friends. Judging from the sentiment indicators above, this period is bound to be difficult. I will help you through it!
See the picture below
Green line: STH-MVRV=1;
Blue line: STH-MVRV=0.9
In a strong bull market, STH-MVRV will rebound when it touches the green line, while in a weak bull market, STH-MVRV will seek a balance point between the green and blue lines. Once it falls below the blue line, even if the bull market is still there, it will take a long time to repair the trend. For example, it took 6 months before and after the March 12 incident.
As of July 2, the current corresponding prices are as follows:
STH-MVRV: 1 = $64,400
STH-MVRV: 0.95 = $61,200
STH-MVRV: 0.9 = $58,000
STH-MVRV: 0.85 = $54,700
STH-MVRV: 0.8 = $51,500
For a more detailed explanation of STH-MVRV data, please refer to the April 20 article
$BTC
See the picture below
Green line: STH-MVRV=1;
Blue line: STH-MVRV=0.9
In a strong bull market, STH-MVRV will rebound when it touches the green line, while in a weak bull market, STH-MVRV will seek a balance point between the green and blue lines. Once it falls below the blue line, even if the bull market is still there, it will take a long time to repair the trend. For example, it took 6 months before and after the March 12 incident.
As of July 2, the current corresponding prices are as follows:
STH-MVRV: 1 = $64,400
STH-MVRV: 0.95 = $61,200
STH-MVRV: 0.9 = $58,000
STH-MVRV: 0.85 = $54,700
STH-MVRV: 0.8 = $51,500
For a more detailed explanation of STH-MVRV data, please refer to the April 20 article
$BTC
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Judging from the inventory data of the exchange, although there was an increase in the price of#BTCon Sunday and Monday, which led to a decrease in inventory in the past three weeks, there is still a gap of 30,000 BTC from the lowest inventory value in nearly six years, which is also the lowest inventory value in the past three weeks.
$BTC $BNB
$BTC $BNB
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New coins on top exchanges are having trouble with the stampede, can we still wait for the altcoin season?
At present, the performance of new coins on several leading exchanges in the industry is very disappointing, and it seems far from the expected bull market. Can ordinary retail investors still make a comeback by copying?
As we all know, we are currently in an atypical bull market cycle. It may be difficult to make money from luck (bonuses from the easy-win cycle) using the previous methods. Therefore, it is time to think about how we should adjust our trading thinking and logic.
Let’s first look at a set of data (the performance of new coins on the top exchanges is not satisfactory):
Bitget Exchange:
BYBIT Exchange:
OKX Exchange:
As we all know, we are currently in an atypical bull market cycle. It may be difficult to make money from luck (bonuses from the easy-win cycle) using the previous methods. Therefore, it is time to think about how we should adjust our trading thinking and logic.
Let’s first look at a set of data (the performance of new coins on the top exchanges is not satisfactory):
Bitget Exchange:
BYBIT Exchange:
OKX Exchange:
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Based on the on-chain behavior analysis, to what extent might BTC fall in the bull market under extreme circumstances?
The overall logic is to evaluate from two aspects based on on-chain behavior analysis and historical data.
🎈Method 1: From the perspective of STH-MVRV (short-term holders)
Short-term holders are important participants in the bull-bear transition, so the performance of STH-MVRV has extremely important reference value in the bull market cycle. As we all know, there were 2 daunting black swan events in the last cycle, which also triggered the#BTCprice to plummet. From the figure below we can see
When the March 12 incident occurred, STH-MVRV was as low as 0.59; when the May 19 incident occurred, STH-MVRV was as low as 0.67. This means that on March 12, STH (short-term holders) suffered an average floating loss of 41%, and on May 19, STH (short-term holders) suffered an average floating loss of 33%. This shows how tragic the market was at that time.
🎈Method 1: From the perspective of STH-MVRV (short-term holders)
Short-term holders are important participants in the bull-bear transition, so the performance of STH-MVRV has extremely important reference value in the bull market cycle. As we all know, there were 2 daunting black swan events in the last cycle, which also triggered the#BTCprice to plummet. From the figure below we can see
When the March 12 incident occurred, STH-MVRV was as low as 0.59; when the May 19 incident occurred, STH-MVRV was as low as 0.67. This means that on March 12, STH (short-term holders) suffered an average floating loss of 41%, and on May 19, STH (short-term holders) suffered an average floating loss of 33%. This shows how tragic the market was at that time.
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The darkness will pass and the dawn will come
I use RMMPC (Regional Month-over-Month Price Change) as an on-chain sentiment indicator to observe the driving force and influence of the three major crypto markets (i.e. the United States, Europe, and Asia) on the#BTCprice. It can reflect the impact of investor sentiment in the region on BTC price changes. Blue represents the United States, yellow represents Europe, red represents Asia, and the black line is the price of BTC;
As we all know, the current price changes of#BTCare more affected by the sentiment of investors in the United States. If the dominance of the United States becomes stronger, the price of#BTCcan at least remain relatively stable, and there is a high probability that it will rise after a period of time. On the contrary, when the driving force of the United States weakens, it is not a positive signal for the short-term price of #BTC. It should be noted that "weakened" here means weaker than Europe and Asia.
As we all know, the current price changes of#BTCare more affected by the sentiment of investors in the United States. If the dominance of the United States becomes stronger, the price of#BTCcan at least remain relatively stable, and there is a high probability that it will rise after a period of time. On the contrary, when the driving force of the United States weakens, it is not a positive signal for the short-term price of #BTC. It should be noted that "weakened" here means weaker than Europe and Asia.
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Last Friday, everyone's guess about the data of BTC spot ETFs was almost correct. As expected, Friday was undoubtedly one of the days with the least capital outflows, with net outflows reaching the highest peak of the week, up to 3,280 BTC. Among the 11 spot ETFs still operating in the United States, only one had a small inflow like BlackRock, which only added 23 BTC. The rest had either net outflows or no inflows, which fully reflects the current sentiment of American investors. With the Fed's expectation of only one rate cut, investors' investment enthusiasm seems to be gradually cooling down. However, BTC and#ETHare in a slightly better situation, while other tokens such as ALT are having a harder time.
Back to the data of spot ETFs, in the past week, global spot ETFs lost a total of 7,489 BTC, of which the United States had a net outflow of 7,749 BTC and Hong Kong had a net outflow of 19.28 BTC. From the overall outflow situation, the outflow from the United States accounts for the largest part. With continuous large outflows, the total net inflow of global spot ETFs has fallen below 600,000 BTC. In the past week, the largest outflow was from GBTC, with a total outflow of 3,849 BTC in five working days.
However, even in the full range, the largest inflow was from Canada's Evolve Bitcoin ETF, with a total inflow of 972 BTC. But current data shows that overall investment sentiment is not high, and this situation may continue for some time unless there is macro-positive information. The market needs more momentum to rekindle investors' enthusiasm.
$BTC $BNB
Back to the data of spot ETFs, in the past week, global spot ETFs lost a total of 7,489 BTC, of which the United States had a net outflow of 7,749 BTC and Hong Kong had a net outflow of 19.28 BTC. From the overall outflow situation, the outflow from the United States accounts for the largest part. With continuous large outflows, the total net inflow of global spot ETFs has fallen below 600,000 BTC. In the past week, the largest outflow was from GBTC, with a total outflow of 3,849 BTC in five working days.
However, even in the full range, the largest inflow was from Canada's Evolve Bitcoin ETF, with a total inflow of 972 BTC. But current data shows that overall investment sentiment is not high, and this situation may continue for some time unless there is macro-positive information. The market needs more momentum to rekindle investors' enthusiasm.
$BTC $BNB
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Is the bull market over? Who is dumping the market?
Today I would like to bring up the issue that most of my friends are concerned about: are the market makers dumping the market now, are the big whales starting to flee, is the bull market over? I don’t think so. Judging from the data, although the last 24 hours have been full of negative information,#BTChas maintained a very low turnover rate on the chain. This is what I have been emphasizing before. It is very difficult for investors to release the BTC in their hands due to market dumping.
From the data this time, we can see that the earlier profitable investors are completely indifferent to the price drop and hardly participate in the turnover. The data of BTC on the chain is the most fair, and no transfer will be ignored. Therefore, the conclusion is that the so-called dog dealers have not crashed the market unless they are losing money, and the whales have not left the market unless they are losing money.
From the data this time, we can see that the earlier profitable investors are completely indifferent to the price drop and hardly participate in the turnover. The data of BTC on the chain is the most fair, and no transfer will be ignored. Therefore, the conclusion is that the so-called dog dealers have not crashed the market unless they are losing money, and the whales have not left the market unless they are losing money.
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What do changes in BTC and ETH flows mean?
In a market environment with shrinking liquidity, even a small amount of funds or chips is enough to change the short-term price trend of BTC. All these changes may only come from the release of a piece of data or the hype of a piece of news...
In addition to paying attention to daily trading volume, we can also judge changes in the overall market liquidity and sentiment through the trend of BTC and ETH inflows/outflows (i.e. flow potential) of exchanges.
As shown in the figure, starting from October 2023, the exchange's flow potential began to gradually increase until it peaked in March 2024. On March 13, BTC had an inflow of $5.37 billion and an outflow of $4.97 billion, while ETH had an inflow of $1.39 billion and an outflow of $1.34 billion.
In addition to paying attention to daily trading volume, we can also judge changes in the overall market liquidity and sentiment through the trend of BTC and ETH inflows/outflows (i.e. flow potential) of exchanges.
As shown in the figure, starting from October 2023, the exchange's flow potential began to gradually increase until it peaked in March 2024. On March 13, BTC had an inflow of $5.37 billion and an outflow of $4.97 billion, while ETH had an inflow of $1.39 billion and an outflow of $1.34 billion.
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Learn some useful little indicators that can help you surpass 90% of people in your field
"Simple indicators with magical effects" - Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss
The market continues to fluctuate, and we continue with this series. Today we will share the following simple indicators: relative unrealized profit (RUP) and relative unrealized loss (RUL). These are two sets of data, but we often combine them when we use them. They have one thing in common with the SOPR explained in the previous issue, that is, they both use the timestamp function of the underlying UTXO structure of#BTCto achieve statistical calculations. The principles are the same, but the purposes are different.
The market continues to fluctuate, and we continue with this series. Today we will share the following simple indicators: relative unrealized profit (RUP) and relative unrealized loss (RUL). These are two sets of data, but we often combine them when we use them. They have one thing in common with the SOPR explained in the previous issue, that is, they both use the timestamp function of the underlying UTXO structure of#BTCto achieve statistical calculations. The principles are the same, but the purposes are different.
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Stimulated by the temporary positive employment data,#BTConce surged to $71,000.
But compared with the previous two days, the turnover on the chain has decreased a lot.
From the data point of view, the current turnover is somewhat abnormal, and some holders have reduced their holdings from $58,000 to $65,000. The reduction of BTC in these ranges has not appeared for a long time. Although the amount of reduction is not large, it is nearly 15,000 BTC when collected together. This makes people wonder whether it has triggered the risk aversion of institutions, but it is not certain at present, and we need to continue to observe.
Other aspects are not a big problem. The support of $64,000 to $69,000 is still solid, and there has been no large-scale transfer due to the rise in BTC prices. The employment data is relatively marginal, and today's small non-agricultural data may cause greater fluctuations. However, the gap between small non-agricultural data and non-agricultural data in the past year is large, and the Federal Reserve mainly focuses on non-agricultural data. Therefore, even if the small non-agricultural data is good, it does not mean that it can be synchronized with non-agricultural data, after all, the statistical agencies are different.
Earlier investors still maintain a cold-eyed attitude and do not participate too much in the turnover. But based on past experience, if the non-agricultural data can really achieve an unemployment rate of more than 4%, it is not impossible for BTC to reach a new high. In 2024, every time BTC reaches a new high, there will be a large number of market crashes. Whether this tradition will continue this time, we still need to wait and see
$BTC $BNB
But compared with the previous two days, the turnover on the chain has decreased a lot.
From the data point of view, the current turnover is somewhat abnormal, and some holders have reduced their holdings from $58,000 to $65,000. The reduction of BTC in these ranges has not appeared for a long time. Although the amount of reduction is not large, it is nearly 15,000 BTC when collected together. This makes people wonder whether it has triggered the risk aversion of institutions, but it is not certain at present, and we need to continue to observe.
Other aspects are not a big problem. The support of $64,000 to $69,000 is still solid, and there has been no large-scale transfer due to the rise in BTC prices. The employment data is relatively marginal, and today's small non-agricultural data may cause greater fluctuations. However, the gap between small non-agricultural data and non-agricultural data in the past year is large, and the Federal Reserve mainly focuses on non-agricultural data. Therefore, even if the small non-agricultural data is good, it does not mean that it can be synchronized with non-agricultural data, after all, the statistical agencies are different.
Earlier investors still maintain a cold-eyed attitude and do not participate too much in the turnover. But based on past experience, if the non-agricultural data can really achieve an unemployment rate of more than 4%, it is not impossible for BTC to reach a new high. In 2024, every time BTC reaches a new high, there will be a large number of market crashes. Whether this tradition will continue this time, we still need to wait and see
$BTC $BNB
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The invisible gatekeeper of the bull market's "transition phase"
Judging from historical data, in the "transition phase" of the bull market, whenever LTH-MVRV approaches 3.5, it will be a resistance level in the market, that is, the selling pressure will become stronger.
From the above chart, since#BTCreached 60,000 USD in March this year, LTH-MVRV has approached or touched the 3.5 red line 4 times, but failed to break through each time. This shows that there is indeed strong resistance here.
If we use the LTH Realized Price 7D change rate data, we can see that the change rate was 0.1% on May 24, and rose to 2.2% on May 31. This shows that during this period, as the#BTCprice rebounded, low-priced LTH chips were changed hands (distributed), which led to a rapid increase in LTH-RP.
From the above chart, since#BTCreached 60,000 USD in March this year, LTH-MVRV has approached or touched the 3.5 red line 4 times, but failed to break through each time. This shows that there is indeed strong resistance here.
If we use the LTH Realized Price 7D change rate data, we can see that the change rate was 0.1% on May 24, and rose to 2.2% on May 31. This shows that during this period, as the#BTCprice rebounded, low-priced LTH chips were changed hands (distributed), which led to a rapid increase in LTH-RP.
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Does it have the characteristics of a bull market top cycle? Use the SOPR indicator to see
“Simple indicators with magical effects” – Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)
In the use of on-chain data, we often encounter some indicators with relatively simple algorithms and functions. But simple functions do not mean simple effects. On the contrary, if we can deeply understand the logic behind the indicators and combine them with the adjustment of some parameters, we can produce unexpected results. For these basic data, I plan to try to write a series. Of course, this series will not be updated every day. If the market enters a relatively stable period (garbage room), I will take the time to improve the writing of the subsequent series. It also provides references from different angles for many friends who want to learn on-chain data.
In the use of on-chain data, we often encounter some indicators with relatively simple algorithms and functions. But simple functions do not mean simple effects. On the contrary, if we can deeply understand the logic behind the indicators and combine them with the adjustment of some parameters, we can produce unexpected results. For these basic data, I plan to try to write a series. Of course, this series will not be updated every day. If the market enters a relatively stable period (garbage room), I will take the time to improve the writing of the subsequent series. It also provides references from different angles for many friends who want to learn on-chain data.
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With the positive stimulus of the expected approval of the ETH spot ETF, the market's buyer demand for BTC has increased, driving up prices. At the same time, the importance of seller pressure from LTH has also increased. We can measure their motivation to sell by evaluating the unrealized profits of the LTH group. The LTH-MVRV indicator reflects the average unrealized profit multiple of long-term holders. From a historical perspective, the LTH-MVRV value is usually higher than 1.5 but lower than 3.5 in the "transition stage" from the bottom of the bear market to the main uptrend of the bull market. This means that in this stage, the average profit of LTH can reach 50%-250%.
Looking back at the past two cycles, the duration of this "transition stage" may reach 1-2 years. Among them, the 2016-2017 cycle lasted 335 days, and this cycle has lasted 189 days so far. Compared with the shortest 2016-2017 cycle, we still have about 146 days to wait, which is about 5 months.
If we turn our attention to macro factors, assuming that the Federal Reserve will start its first interest rate cut in September this year, the next step will be the US election cycle. Then, BTC may end the above-mentioned "transition phase" in October. This speculation seems to coincide with 5 months in time.
It is worth noting that any prediction of time and price is subjective, because many factors that can change the time cycle have high uncertainty, such as when the S-1/S-3 of the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved, when the Fed will start to cut interest rates, etc. We just make a certain degree of credibility by observing the on-chain data and combining the time nodes of macro events.
However, no matter how the future changes, the market is always full of uncertainty. Therefore, we need to be vigilant at all times and be prepared to deal with various possible situations. In general, the current "transition phase" is a period full of challenges and opportunities. We need to pay close attention to market dynamics and make strategic adjustments in order to obtain greater benefits in the future bull market.
Looking back at the past two cycles, the duration of this "transition stage" may reach 1-2 years. Among them, the 2016-2017 cycle lasted 335 days, and this cycle has lasted 189 days so far. Compared with the shortest 2016-2017 cycle, we still have about 146 days to wait, which is about 5 months.
If we turn our attention to macro factors, assuming that the Federal Reserve will start its first interest rate cut in September this year, the next step will be the US election cycle. Then, BTC may end the above-mentioned "transition phase" in October. This speculation seems to coincide with 5 months in time.
It is worth noting that any prediction of time and price is subjective, because many factors that can change the time cycle have high uncertainty, such as when the S-1/S-3 of the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved, when the Fed will start to cut interest rates, etc. We just make a certain degree of credibility by observing the on-chain data and combining the time nodes of macro events.
However, no matter how the future changes, the market is always full of uncertainty. Therefore, we need to be vigilant at all times and be prepared to deal with various possible situations. In general, the current "transition phase" is a period full of challenges and opportunities. We need to pay close attention to market dynamics and make strategic adjustments in order to obtain greater benefits in the future bull market.
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Understand the BTC bull-bear cycle in 3 minutes: the logic of trend change under supply and demand relationship
Through daily data analysis, it is not difficult to find that no matter what we focus on, macro, expectations or emotions, it will eventually be reflected in supply and demand and determine price changes. By observing the visual data of supply and demand relationships, it can effectively help us grasp the critical point of trend change in the cycle. I will elaborate on this in detail in this article.
We all know that in every bull cycle of #BTC, long-term holders (LTH) will distribute chips to short-term holders (STH), so LTH plays the role of supply side and STH is the demand side.
We all know that in every bull cycle of #BTC, long-term holders (LTH) will distribute chips to short-term holders (STH), so LTH plays the role of supply side and STH is the demand side.
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Today we will predict the top price of BTC in this cycle, which should be a topic of concern to many friends.
From two aspects:
First, from the perspective of miners' profits, high profits help miners to recover cash flow and prepare for upgrading to higher computing power. After calculation, when BTC reaches more than 90,000 US dollars, mainstream mining machines can quickly recover their capital within 12-16 months. This is the so-called "high profit" threshold, and the 100,000 US dollar integer mark is also a psychological integer mark expected by most people. Therefore, 90,000-100,000 US dollars is an important price range.
Secondly, from the perspective of the chip structure, a large amount of BTC is currently accumulated in the 60,000-6.70,000 US dollar range, accounting for 16% of the total circulation. This is a huge accumulation area, indicating that a large number of chips have been exchanged here. If these chips are not fully digested in the future, then when the BTC price reaches 120,000-130,000 US dollars, it means that the unrealized profits of these chips will reach an average of 200%. The trading psychology of "doubling the principal" will cause the market to generate concentrated selling pressure at this position.
In addition, I would like to share with you the BTC top price algorithm model in the data in the figure. Of course, this model does not mean that this round of cycle will definitely reach the predicted position, it just has never been wrong in the verification of historical data. On March 14, the high point of this round calculated by the model was expected to be around US$134,000; and by May 22, the top price had moved up to US$146,800. But remember that this is just a reference, and the actual price may be different.
In general, whether from the perspective of miners' profits or from the chip structure, it indicates that the price of BTC may reach an important top in the near future. But remember that the market is always full of uncertainty, so everyone should remain rational and cautious.
From two aspects:
First, from the perspective of miners' profits, high profits help miners to recover cash flow and prepare for upgrading to higher computing power. After calculation, when BTC reaches more than 90,000 US dollars, mainstream mining machines can quickly recover their capital within 12-16 months. This is the so-called "high profit" threshold, and the 100,000 US dollar integer mark is also a psychological integer mark expected by most people. Therefore, 90,000-100,000 US dollars is an important price range.
Secondly, from the perspective of the chip structure, a large amount of BTC is currently accumulated in the 60,000-6.70,000 US dollar range, accounting for 16% of the total circulation. This is a huge accumulation area, indicating that a large number of chips have been exchanged here. If these chips are not fully digested in the future, then when the BTC price reaches 120,000-130,000 US dollars, it means that the unrealized profits of these chips will reach an average of 200%. The trading psychology of "doubling the principal" will cause the market to generate concentrated selling pressure at this position.
In addition, I would like to share with you the BTC top price algorithm model in the data in the figure. Of course, this model does not mean that this round of cycle will definitely reach the predicted position, it just has never been wrong in the verification of historical data. On March 14, the high point of this round calculated by the model was expected to be around US$134,000; and by May 22, the top price had moved up to US$146,800. But remember that this is just a reference, and the actual price may be different.
In general, whether from the perspective of miners' profits or from the chip structure, it indicates that the price of BTC may reach an important top in the near future. But remember that the market is always full of uncertainty, so everyone should remain rational and cautious.
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Nasdaq files 19b-4 for BlackRock's#ETHspot ETF