Currently, the support capacity near the 90,000 to 92,000 range for Bitcoin is very strong, and this is the third time it has repelled bearish forces.
Due to Christmas, from December 22 to January 5, 2025, Wall Street is on holiday, and the US stock market is closed. During this time, there will be no buyers for BTC's ETF, and it is uncertain whether the market can withstand the selling pressure around the 20th. (Under normal circumstances, this should not occur, unless the US stock market crashes; it is currently closed.)

Currently, Bitcoin will still face resistance around the 98,000 to 100,000 range, and as long as there is an opportunity for a second pullback before Wall Street resumes work on January 5, it will be a chance to buy. The inflow of funds into ETH is also continuously increasing. Yesterday, the largest clearing contract was a long position in ETH. The current trend of ETH is very healthy, with almost all large long positions liquidated, making it easier for ETH to establish an independent trend, which will also trigger a rally in altcoins.

Bitcoin is currently in a volatile trend, with key resistance levels to watch: the 98,000 to 100,000 mark is the current key resistance level. If it can effectively break through, Bitcoin is expected to rise further. If it fails to break through, it may face a short-term pullback. Key support levels: 90,000 to 92,000.

It is prudent to maintain a strategy of buying spot at low levels, setting reasonable stop-loss points, while closely monitoring key resistance levels and market dynamics, flexibly adjusting strategies, and strictly controlling risks. $BTC $ETH #加密市场反弹 #圣诞行情预测

This year has been a milestone year for the cryptocurrency industry. From the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs at the beginning of the year, to the booming bull market, and the impetus from the U.S. elections, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have reached record valuations and are increasingly influencing social and political landscapes.

As retail investors, it feels increasingly difficult to profit; we never thought we would need to understand so much to trade a coin. Various macroeconomic factors, policy news, and technical aspects all require some understanding, and retail investors are finding it too hard! With the rising awareness among retail investors, many are picking up their tools to resist. While institutions also face challenges when harvesting profits, after several disordered fluctuations, it leaves everyone confused. As mere ants, how can we possibly compete with big capital? We must always hold a sense of reverence towards the market, ensuring that we are prepared for both offense and defense, leaving ourselves some room.

Everyone comes to this market to realize arbitrage,
And it is relatively easier for large money to extract from small money (institutions)
While it's much harder for small money to extract from large money (small and medium investors, retail investors)

Ultimately, those who survive are the ones with patience and the strength to endure cycles.
What we can do is manage our desires well, enhance our understanding, befriend time, and earn money through the cycles. #比特币市场波动观察

Historical Trend Reference

In recent years, significant corrections in Bitcoin have indeed occurred multiple times before Christmas:
2021: One week before Christmas, Bitcoin dropped from $51,000 to $46,000, a decrease of nearly 10%.
2022: Similarly, one week before Christmas, Bitcoin fell from $18,300 to $16,800.
2024: Currently, one week before Christmas, Bitcoin has dropped from $108,353 to $92,232, a decrease of nearly 9%.
However, there were also years, such as 2020, when Bitcoin steadily rose before the holiday and surged quickly afterwards, but historical patterns still warrant caution.

Meanwhile, the current market sentiment is extremely poor, and year-end capital pressure along with macroeconomic uncertainties may still trigger short-term volatility.

The key support level for Bitcoin is around $92,000 to $94,000; if it breaks below this range, it could trigger more selling pressure, and with insufficient liquidity, it's uncertain whether the market can bear this. Currently, only if it stays above $97,400 for four hours can there be a chance for a reversal.
Altcoins are heavily influenced by Bitcoin's movements, with higher risks of correction.

Response Strategy
1. Rationally reduce positions: If holding high-position profits, consider appropriately reducing positions to lock in profits.
2. Set stop losses: Invest cautiously to avoid significant losses due to sudden drops.
3. Patiently wait: Even in the case of a major drop, the market often welcomes recovery opportunities after the holiday, so don’t easily chase gains or panic sell. $BTC
#加密市场盘整 #比特币市场波动观察

Common Traits of Truly Excellent Traders:

Accepting to stay on the sidelines without trading every day
Accepting stop losses, accepting volatility
Accepting the fact of not catching the bottom and top
Being able to take losses, accepting missed opportunities, accepting pullbacks

Only the progress of mindset is true growth.

The market is ever-changing; you can always respond to change with consistency!
That is to firmly execute your trading system and strictly adhere to trading discipline!

1. Each time BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF experiences outflows, it is essentially at a stage of price bottom.

2. Data shows that yesterday the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $277 million, including:
BlackRock IBIT: -$72.7 million    
Fidelity FBTC: -$71.9 million
ARK ARKB: -$87 million    
Franklin EZBC: +$5.6 million
Grayscale GBTC: -$57.4 million    
Grayscale Mini BTC: +$6.4 million

3. On December 21, according to Lookonchain monitoring, after the market rebound from last night to today, 10 new wallets withdrew a total of 17,698 ETH from Binance, worth approximately $66.16 million. (The above image shows that during each drop, there are large whales buying significant amounts of ETH to withdraw from exchanges.) 4. On December 22, it was reported that Max Keiser, a senior Bitcoin advisor to the President of El Salvador, revealed that President Nayib Bukele has increased the daily Bitcoin purchase amount, with a medium-term goal of adding 20,000 more Bitcoins.

In summary, the overall trend of Bitcoin is upward, with the strategy of adding to positions at bottom support levels.
If Bitcoin experiences a pullback near key resistance levels, one can buy the dip for spot; if it breaks through resistance, one can continue to hold or add to the spot position.
Risk management: During the operation, strict risk control should be implemented, with reasonable stop-loss points set to avoid excessive chasing of highs and lows.$BTC
$ETH
#加密市场盘整 #市场调整後的机会？

Trading is like hunting, the key is to patiently wait～$SUI

Every significant rise and fall in the market can be a "touchstone"; if you can maintain rationality and not follow emotions, you can go further.

In a bull market, there are usually three to four major corrections, each accompanied by panic emotions. This is normal consolidation, and it is actually the right time to increase your positions at lower levels. The overall pattern determines success or failure, as long as you hold quality cryptocurrencies.

In the crypto space, seeking stability to achieve victory is the most important!

Sector rotation is inevitable; don't fixate on whether a certain coin is "good" or "bad". Throughout the bull market, as long as you have patience, you will achieve results. The key is to find the logic behind the rise, and the rest is just waiting!

No one can perfectly time the bottom, and no one can precisely escape the top. So don't have biases against a coin just because its price is high; study what it aims to accomplish in the future. Learn, analyze, form your own investment logic, and exit rationally before the bull market ends.

There is no technical analysis for this kind of rogue market. Watch more and do less. Keep your hands off! If the big cake does not stand above 103330, the market will still be dominated by bears. Be patient and wait. Maybe this is the last chance to open a position.

Why is it so difficult for people to make money in the trading market? What is the principle?

The first principle of trading is to make most people lose money. Only when most people lose money can the market carry and continue to operate. Beyond this principle, the market will no longer exist. For any industry in the world, only by figuring out its first principle can you avoid losing your way in this matter.

To become a survivor with a small probability, most people still rely on luck.
And only those who are extremely self-disciplined and know and act in unity can wait for their own luck.

I've watched a lot of market analyses and followed many teachers, yet I still can't execute this trade well.
When you see the teachers have conflicting opinions on the market direction, you feel lost and confused, unsure of what to do, so you adopt the views of the teachers with higher recent win rates. Little do you know, there are no perpetual victors in this world; alas, one misstep can lead to eternal regret! Meanwhile, those teachers who have been consistently wrong become increasingly cautious in their trades, and so...
When the teachers' market opinions align, you feel excited and joyful, ecstatic even. Finally, you can thoughtlessly follow their trades, unaware that the essence of this market is a game of wolves eating sheep, where a few always profit at the expense of the many, in accordance with the 80/20 rule. So.....
One day, you no longer drift with the tide and learn to think independently. As a result, you experience repeated stop-losses and liquidations. You continue to face brutal realities in the market, with helplessness and despair always by your side.

Little do you know, this is the growth journey of most retail traders.

Every retail trader initially enters this market with beautiful aspirations, only to be ruthlessly harvested by the market makers' scythes time and again. Eventually, the traders also set their eyes on that shiny scythe, wanting to possess one themselves～

But how can one obtain such a scythe? It’s a headache……

#美联储放鹰 #加密市场回调 $BTC

The truly worth trading time is less than 5% ~ $USUAL

The Federal Reserve is hawkish, and a rate cut of 25 basis points is expected in December, but the guidance for next year indicates only 2 cuts, far below the market expectation of 4.

Bitcoin follows the sharp decline of U.S. stocks, and altcoins plunge. Historically, gold often emerges around Christmas time in Europe and the U.S.

The market saw nearly 700 million in liquidations within 24 hours. The market's speculative games driven by contracts will eventually undergo repeated cleansing; old Powell's speech is just a catalyst. Every year before Christmas, there tends to be a wave of correction. It seems this correction has come a bit earlier this time. After the adjustment, will the real market trend start?

What we need to do is hold onto valuable coins, bravely seek value coins with every dip, and tightly grasp them without being shaken out. Remember, every dip now is for a better rise in the future; choosing the right targets is paramount!
Two major principles for choosing coins:

The strong remain strong (solid fundamentals, mainstream coins, valuable coins)
What goes to extremes will turn (falling has reached its limit, high cost-performance ratio)

The total balance of Bitcoin across major global exchanges has dropped from 2.72 million at the beginning of the year to 2.24 million, with a significant decline in the last two months. Currently, the remaining balance in exchange wallets accounts for only 11.3% of the circulating total of 19.8 million coins. Cherish the chips you hold! $BTC $SOL #美联储放鹰 #加密市场回调

At present, the most uncomfortable people in this market are those who have a lot of altcoins. 99% of the leeks are waiting for the altcoins to make up for the rise! Therefore, the importance of position management is immediately reflected. What directly determines your mentality is your position control. If you still don’t have enough cognition, the market will give you a deep and painful understanding again and again!

At present, mainstream coins such as btc eth xrp doge in the currency circle have a market share of more than 80%! Even if short-term funds come in to favor individual altcoins, the remaining currencies will quickly withdraw after making profits. When will the altcoin season come?

Looking back at history:
In March 2017, BTC’s market share dropped from 80% to 30%, and the altcoin bull market broke out.
In January 2021, the share dropped from 70% to 40%, and the altcoin bull market started again.

At present, the funds are still being sucked by the big cake. What we need now is patience and waiting for the funds to flow back to the altcoins, so don’t operate randomly, let alone change positions frequently, and keep the chips in your hands.

There will be a market for altcoins, and sector rotation will definitely come. Be patient and wait. Maybe after a sharp drop, a good altcoin market will appear!

Altcoins are short-term investment tools and are only suitable for seizing specific market stages, but it is necessary to be aware that risks and opportunities coexist, so only small positions can be used to gain excess returns. In the future, profitable funds will either be exchanged for BTC or held for U opportunities.

Through the periodic returns of altcoins, gradually exchange more core assets such as Bitcoin to accumulate long-term value!

$BTC $SOL #加密市场盘整 #BTC再创新高

The road to Shu is as difficult as ascending to the sky. The difficulty of trading is to go against human nature.

Why do people come to this market and pay tuition fees regardless of whether they succeed in the end? The main difficulty lies in overcoming human nature.

Think about how many decisions in our lives are dominated by emotional thinking. The innate "greed, anger, and ignorance" are the main sources of losses, because most people have never had systematic training in overcoming human nature in their lives.

The weaknesses of human nature can easily bring disadvantages to trading, such as buying high and selling low, not stopping losses; frequently doing short-term trading; being afraid of retracements; being timid; following the crowd;
Fantasizing about getting rich overnight; being afraid of heights when prices rise too much, and holding on to prices when prices fall too much.

The result of training against human nature is buying low and selling high; stopping losses and admitting mistakes; grasping the big trend; enduring retracements; being decisive; thinking independently; making friends with time;
I am afraid when others are greedy, and I am greedy when others are afraid; going with the flow, enduring loneliness, and keeping prosperity.

Each of these points requires a lot of unintentional training to change. To put it bluntly, unintentional training is just paying tuition.

The pancake short position has reached the first take profit level, you can exit half, and set the remaining to breakeven stop.

Today's Market Analysis
Currently, the market is dominated by Bitcoin with high prices, while altcoins are in a state of chaos, showing a clear polarization—Bitcoin is in a bull market while altcoins are in a bear market! Bitcoin continues to set new highs every day, and there isn't much technical pattern to speak of; institutional control is too severe. Prices may rise to pay off debts, and the final outcome will be harvesting. There are too many uncontrollable factors at present; we can only ensure rigorous risk control to survive extreme market conditions, so that we have a chance to wait for favorable winds to arrive!
BTC
Bitcoin reached a new high of 108,385 yesterday, then fell and began a daily level consolidation. The next resistance levels are 109,000 and 110,000, with support at 105,500. If this position is broken, a one-hour level correction will begin, with support at 102,800 and 101,500 below. The four-hour closing broke 105,500, indicating a correction at the four-hour level.
ETH
Ethereum's performance has been disappointing, with multiple upper shadows appearing around the 4,000 price level recently, indicating strong selling pressure.
Recent candlesticks show a predominance of bearish candles, reflecting a bearish market sentiment.
Resistance above is at 3,944 and 4,018. Support below is at 3,855 and 3,790.
SOL
SOL is relatively strong at the moment, with continued support at the 213 level. As long as this position holds, we can expect a rebound, with resistance at 223. If the daily level stabilizes at this position, it will initiate a daily level increase. It is prudent to wait for the daily close at 223 before considering long positions, with additional resistance at 234 and 245 above.

Currently, this market is not suitable for altcoins; it’s best to focus on mainstream assets primarily through spot trading, manage your positions well, and earn within your understanding. Only trade when you understand the market; when in doubt, take a break and hold onto BNB for peace of mind.
$BTC $ETH $SOL

Macroeconomic:

1. In 2024, Asia will account for 32% of global cryptocurrency developers, with new developers favoring SOLANA over Ethereum—focus on opportunities in the SOL ecosystem layout.
2. Individual token opportunities—ONDO: The Trump family's crypto project WLFI purchased $250,000 worth of ONDO tokens through Cow Protocol.
3. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 96%, with a high level of market consensus, but predictions for the 2025 rate cut path must be considered—capitalize on the short-term bullish situation, and consider reducing positions on highs.
4. This week is a super data week: a flurry of U.S. economic data is expected, including PMI, retail sales month-on-month, PCE price index, GDP final value, and other significant data; additionally, the focus this week will be on the interest rate decision and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech early Thursday morning, as the Bank of Japan will also announce its interest rate decision, which may become a disruptor this week—this week's risk events and data accumulation, be aware of the risk of sharp fluctuations.
5. This week will see a large-scale token unlocking, be cautious of the unlocking risks of related tokens.

Technical:

BTC
1. On the daily chart, pay attention to the resistance near the upper channel at around 11W, showing a general upward trend with decreasing volume, indicating a certain divergence between volume and price—RSI top divergence + KD severely overbought, indicating a need for technical correction.
2. BTC futures prices gapped up sharply, and caution is needed regarding the type of exhaustion gap at high levels.
3. In the 4H trend, pay attention to the historical trend patterns:
(1) 2023.12—2024.1 + 2024.3.20—2024.4.15
(2) 2021.3—2021.4.15 + 2021.10.30—2021.11.15
Under the premise of significant phase price increases, price convergence of moving averages at high levels is usually accompanied by high-level consolidation—MA200 can be a key reference.

Trading Strategy
Short positions: Gradually short around 107000—110000, average price 108500, stop loss 111000, take profit 105000—101000—98000 (weekly swing + limit orders).
Be cautious of risks and position control, for reference only.

In the financial market, especially in the cryptocurrency space, it is ultimately a blue ocean market, where various aspects are not so regulated, making it an extremely cruel and bloody market. One must have a serious understanding of risks and returns.
Experienced traders know that an uptrend is a process of risk accumulation, while a downtrend is a process of risk release.
Always focus on surviving first, then seek development. (Always aim to preserve 80% of your capital without losses; this is the first step.)
Sources of risk: 80% systematic risk + 20% unsystematic risk.
Profit: the natural product of controlling risk.
Another major risk is human nature itself; the variables of people are immeasurable, and everyone must bow to human nature.
To control risk, simply having stop-loss orders is far from enough; one must also understand the basics of technical analysis and research, as these can significantly improve your risk margins.

Only by recognizing various uncertainties can one face risks and returns head-on; this is the threshold for entry.

If you truly acknowledge the uncertainties in the market, you have already surpassed the cognitive level of about 70% of the market participants.
Remember, we observe candlestick charts, while the market makers create them. This is how professions like financial analysts and market analysts were born.
The role of a market analyst is to explain market trends, telling you what has happened and the reasons behind it. It is all a personal perspective interpretation; being able to accurately predict trends is impressive, so view it rationally and do not blindly follow.

"If you can predict market trends one minute in advance, you can be as rich as a country."

Ultimately, to survive stably, we need to build a trading system, consistently do the right things, and then wait for our luck and favorable winds!

The core logic of establishing trading rules is: profits have no upper limit, while risks must have a lower limit. In other words: cut losses short and let profits run.

These are all some correct platitudes, and the details need to be matched with one’s own personality and honed gradually. It is a tough road, but it is a necessary one, and in the end, it will all be incredibly worthwhile!
$BTC #加密用户突破1800万 #比特币冲向11万？
$BNB

Trading Guidelines:

1. Avoid Overtrading: Stay calm and follow a reasonable trading frequency, without frequently entering and exiting due to market fluctuations.

2. Refuse to Trade on Feelings: All decisions should be based on rigorous analysis and clear trading signals, rather than guesswork.

3. Stick to Established Views, but Accept Errors: Maintain your original analysis during trading, but once a deviation occurs, decisively cut losses to avoid being obstinate.

4. Do Not 'Hold the Position': Even when facing losses, cut losses in a timely manner to avoid emotional trading and maintain rational decision-making.

5. Combine Macro Analysis with Market Analysis: Consider the larger environment and market dynamics, making trading decisions from a holistic perspective.

6. Overcome Human Weaknesses: Avoid emotions like fear and greed from influencing decisions, maintaining a stable mindset and responding calmly to market fluctuations.

Core Trading Philosophy: Go with the trend. Always align with market trends and avoid counter-trend operations. $BTC $ETH #BTC再创新高