This altcoin season is different from previous ones, and this is what you need to understand. The sources of liquidity mainly come from two: ordinary investors bringing new fund inflows through CEXs (Centralized Exchanges) from BTC on CEXs flowing out to altcoins on CEXs. The difference between this altcoin season and previous altcoin seasons is that there are too many market projects. Despite ample market liquidity, the extreme saturation of project numbers makes it overwhelming. Only a few areas, such as AI and the SOL ecosystem, have truly experienced strong growth during the "altcoin season." 2. Token Unlock Dilution: Hidden Resistance This often-overlooked factor absorbs a large amount of natural fund inflows. If supply exceeds demand, prices are difficult to rise. The average circulation of many projects is about 14%, while $70 billion worth of tokens are waiting to be unlocked. When project overload combines with oversupply, it leads to a difficult situation for the altcoin season. 3. The Impact of Bitcoin ETF on Altcoin Season BTC ETF has previously benefited altcoins, allowing investors to easily shift from Bitcoin to invest in altcoins. The ETF causes those buying Bitcoin to face a more complex path when entering the altcoin market. In summary: The 2024 altcoin season has shifted from a general rise to a game of capital rotation. Too many projects and oversupply are consuming market liquidity. The traditional path of altcoin bull markets has been disrupted due to the impact of Bitcoin ETF. Practical advice: Focus on fully diluted valuations (FDVs) and market saturation. Pay attention to the development of ETFs and areas with deep institutional participation, such as RWA. In a flooded altcoin market, do not only focus on dollar value. Altcoin valuation should be compared to Bitcoin ($BTC ). Holding high-risk but low-return assets is unwise. Assessing altcoins relative to Bitcoin can provide a clearer measure of their strength.

The main trend for BTC is still upward. This drop is just the whales collaborating with the news to wash out a large number of unsure retail investors, forcing them to cut losses and exit!
Currently, it looks like the rebound will be the main focus in the next couple of days, but the rebound is limited. I don't want to catch the bottom at $BTC
#比特币市场波动观察

BTC Bitcoin has reached a new high. In this market, attempting to predict the top by continuously opening short positions is unwise. We can only go with the trend and continue to pay attention to the daily chart's continually rising support (currently at $100,000 and $96,000). The bullish trend can only end if the daily closes below these two support levels, so the current daily trend is still dominated by bulls.
For those wanting to short, it is advised to wait until the daily chart breaks below these two strong support levels and consider opening a short position when the EMA 10 line crosses below the EMA 20 line.
At the same time, by observing the divergence in RSI and the recent weakening of the upward trend, although it is impossible to accurately predict the top, it can be felt that Bitcoin is currently in the late stage of a minor bull market. We can continue to hold our positions or conservatively reduce our holdings in batches to take profits, and then pay attention to the $108,000 resistance level as well as the $122,000 resistance level that everyone is focusing on in the future.

The leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin is currently trading at $105,076, having risen 3% in the past 24 hours. During early Asian trading on Monday, Bitcoin briefly hit an all-time high of $106,648 but then experienced a pullback. Although Bitcoin's price has slightly retreated, the rise in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) still reflects the ongoing demand from market participants for this dominant cryptocurrency, with the indicator value at 0.20. The CMF indicator assesses the strength of buying or selling pressure by measuring the volume-weighted average of buy and sell transactions over a specific period. Similar to the price trend of Bitcoin, a positive CMF value indicates that buying pressure is dominant, with prices closing near the highs and strong trading volume. This shows strong bullish momentum and suggests that prices may continue to rise. If this trend continues, Bitcoin is expected to return to and exceed its historical high. However, on the other hand, if profit-taking activity becomes active again, it may cause the price to drop to $94,311, thereby invalidating this bullish forecast. #圣诞行情预测 #BTC再创新高

Recently, the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins have been highly volatile, like surging waves, causing retail investors in the market to feel their hearts race, highlighting the irrational side of the market.
Flash crashes often occur between 5 to 7 AM after the US stock market closes, at which time liquidity is scarce, as if in the shadowy corners under the night sky, and leveraged liquidation becomes the "golden period" of the market. Many people fantasize about picking up bargains during a flash crash, thinking it is a windfall, but in reality, it is not. The market is ruthless; in these seemingly "cheap" moments, there are actually enormous risks, and those who seek to speculate and take shortcuts are often eliminated.
However, this flash crash and market cleansing is not without positive significance. I believe that deleveraging is like a timely rain, able to wash away the restlessness in the market. It is like clearing a river channel, removing silt and debris, laying a solid foundation for possible future rises.
The healthy development of the market is like constructing a tall building; it requires a thorough liquidation to shake off bubbles and superficiality, and this cleansing is precisely the necessary path towards reconstruction and stability after the bubble bursts. It allows the market to return to rationality and value, nurturing new life and hope after the baptism of storm and rain, paving the way for truly insightful and patient investors towards the future. #加密市场反弹 $BTC

$BTC $Will this year's surge be the last major market for the cryptocurrency sector? I tend to believe that this may be the last bull market for ordinary people to achieve a leap in wealth.
As the market system matures and institutional investors continue to flood in, the space for ordinary retail investors to profit will gradually shrink.
This round of the bull market may be the last gift from the chaotic development of the cryptocurrency market, offering ordinary people a chance to turn their fortunes around.
The cryptocurrency market will still exist in the future, but a bull market of this scale may be hard to replicate.
Overall, in the next decade, this market still has development potential, as finance is crucial for everyone, and digital currency will become a necessity for many.
However, by the second half of 2025, the market may enter a bear market phase. Following the pattern of a four-year cycle, the harsh winter will eliminate most investors, and then the market will welcome recovery again, but the volatility and growth will tend to be milder, and the profit space will further shrink#山寨季将持续多久？

1.$ BTC
Every major market fluctuation routine during big movements, oversold rebound repair
Generally, the first day of decline will see a rebound with trading volume, and the second day will have slightly lower volatility
Yesterday's market volatility once again indicated market sentiment
The daily chart in recent days can be seen as an engulfing pattern
Volatility is expected to decrease; the engulfing pattern view is that yesterday's upper and lower boundaries can be used for trading the mother line, with the previous day's defense
Tomorrow's weekly close shows that the intra-day adjustment median hasn't gone down, and the market is still very strong
Adjusting the upper target (11.5-11.8)
Intra-day volatility has decreased; the daily doji star indicates that when breaking through on this daily line, if there's no momentum and volume, it can be a false breakout or false breakdown
Continuing to play around this trend line
I like to trade around trend lines for pressure and pullbacks; breaking through means stop-loss defense is still at 10.2
Breakthrough and retest support with defense at 9.9$BTC #BTC能站稳10W吗？

The coins you don't buy keep rising
The moment you buy coins, they drop
Once the rise begins, it won't easily end, so don't be afraid of the major pullbacks that occur in the early stages. Be bold and enter the market; the worst thing is to keep waiting for lower points. The longer you wait, the higher it goes, and you miss out completely.
In a bull market, there are many spikes. If your position isn't full, try to wait for a pullback, then go all in; otherwise, a sudden spike can catch you off guard, and most people can’t handle it. You must manage your positions well, and it's best to spread out across several key sectors. If you invest all in one sector and it doesn’t move in the short term while others are rising, that’s the most frustrating. If you chase after it, you might get stuck, and after clearing out, it takes off again in just a few days. Many people have experienced this, so either don’t buy, or if you do, you must hold firmly. Your coins will eventually rotate, and even the worst coins in a bull market can multiply five to ten times. The market always rises amidst disagreements; often what many criticize is an opportunity, while the time when everyone is optimistic is actually the risk.
Don't always think about making short-term gains by buying high and selling low. Once you exit midway, you’ll find it hard to return. Playing short-term is less profitable than just holding still and letting it grow.
Every time there's a pullback, the market is filled with panic, and people say the bull has run away. The truth is, it usually has to go through at least three or four major pullbacks before the bull market can end. So don’t be afraid; you must have a broader perspective. As long as you can hold onto them and they aren't trash coins, even the worst can multiply five to ten times. After a bull market, making two to three times on spot trading is really not that uncommon.

The essence of trading is a game with human nature
You think trading is to stare at the market, make trading decisions through various technical indicators and trading techniques, and play games with the market.
In fact, trading is to do something that is always playing games with yourself during the process. We need to overcome our greed, fear, win-win and loss-making, and chase ups and downs.
All this has nothing to do with the market, but with ourselves. So rather than saying that trading is our game in the market, it is better to say that we are always playing games with our own human nature during the trading process. Trading is against human nature. #币圈# #加密#
Like athletes, a healthy body, stable emotions, a rock-solid mentality, and strict trading discipline are the necessary qualities of an excellent trader. Of course, the most important thing is the dividends and luck of the times and industry.
A successful complete trading cycle consists of 70% mentality + 20% luck + 10% trading skills. You need to use 70% of your mentality to catch the tide of the cycle, and use 20% luck and 10% trading skills to expand your profits in the cycle you catch.
Leek does not explode: It has always been your own game $BTC #市场波动，加仓还是观望？

1. Market fluctuations, clear cycles: A market cycle typically lasts about four years, for example: 2016-2017, 2020-2021, 2024-2025.
2. Long-term holding can earn big money: Especially at the beginning of a bull market, when the four-year cycle is just starting, is when you should hold on.
3. Big bull coins will eventually surge: Any undervalued big bull coin, as long as you dare to hold it, will explode sooner or later!
4. Don't blindly compare with mainstream coins: Most small coins ultimately cannot outperform mainstream coins, and blindly trading may even lead to underperforming Bitcoin!
5. The regret in a bull market is not holding on: Most people regret not holding on during a bull market, rather than not buying!
6. When no one believes it's a bull market, the bull market comes: When everyone thinks it’s not a bull market, in reality, the bull market is right in front of you!
In short, long-term players are the ultimate winners, don't be easily scared away by market fluctuations, holding onto your chips is the key!

$BTC $ETH #山寨季分析 In the past 90 days, 15 altcoins (accounting for 30%) have surpassed Bitcoin, including standout coins like Sui (SUI), Fantom (FTM), Uniswap (UNI), and Dogecoin (DOGE). This is in stark contrast to a few weeks ago when the performance of various altcoins lagged behind Bitcoin. Therefore, the rise of the index suggests that as we approach 2025, we may soon enter the next era of altcoin prosperity. However, investors still need to maintain a high level of attention to Bitcoin's dominance. Just as Donald Trump was elected as the new President of the United States, Bitcoin's price hit an all-time high, and its dominance also rose to a new high of 60.61%. Generally speaking, a decline in Bitcoin's dominance is a significant signal for the arrival of altcoin season. Therefore, the current situation indicates that although the altcoin boom may be imminent, it may still take some time, as Bitcoin seems to continue leading the market trends. The market capitalization of altcoins successfully crossed a key resistance. Despite Bitcoin's continued strengthening dominance, the daily chart of TOTAL2 reveals an important breakthrough: it has successfully escaped the confines of a descending triangle. It should be noted that TOTAL2 represents the total market capitalization of the top 100 cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin. The descending triangle, as a technical chart pattern, typically consists of a downward sloping trendline and a horizontal support line. If TOTAL2 (note: the original text's “TOTA2” is a typo and has been corrected to “TOTAL2”) accidentally falls below this support line, the market trend may turn pessimistic, and the performance of altcoins may continue to lag behind Bitcoin. However, it is encouraging that TOTAL2 has broken through this descending trendline. This breakthrough suggests that the next altcoin season may soon be upon us. If this trend continues, the total market capitalization of TOTAL2 is expected to break the $1 trillion mark, which will provide strong evidence for the arrival of the altcoin season. Of course, we also need to remain vigilant. If TOTAL2's value falls below the support line again, this breakthrough may fail, and Bitcoin may continue to maintain its leading position, outperforming other altcoins.

According to past experience, during a bull market, long-term holding and high position management are considered two key principles for reducing mistakes and maximizing profits.
First, the gains in each round of bull markets usually far exceed expectations, especially during the main rising phase, where the gains over three days can often match the gains of the past year. This is known as the principle of "infinite scenery at perilous peaks." Therefore, as long as there are no signs of an accelerated peak for the cryptocurrencies in hand, do not easily switch positions or exit the market. Past experiences in bull markets indicate that the biggest taboo is frequently changing positions because once the wrong rhythm is stepped into, one may easily fall into the trap of chasing highs and selling lows.
Second, in a broadly rising market, every move made by investors carries a high margin of error. During periods of high win rates and high odds, the correct approach for investors is to fully utilize every bit of capital at hand, allowing it to generate as much profit as possible. Therefore, maintaining a high position for the long term becomes particularly important. Of course, to respond to market changes, investors can keep a portion of their positions as flexible positions while maintaining a high overall position, allowing for adaptable adjustments in their holding structure.#大盘的下一步？ $BTC $ETH

Trading is a discipline test; you must strictly set stop losses. Once you open a position, set the stop loss level clearly in your mind regarding how much you can afford to lose. Major opportunities usually allow for a maximum stop loss of 5-6%, while smaller opportunities should have a stop loss of 1-2%. Always prioritize defense, and offense is secondary. It’s better to miss an opportunity than to incur a significant loss. No matter how many times you stop out, you can always recover once. Holding onto a position poorly can lead to going back to square one overnight. Especially for contract $BTC $ETH #加密货币市场持续震荡 $.

From the previous accumulation to the current 2 to 3 months, the sentiment of the altcoin market is brewing an unprecedented storm!
The market has experienced an extreme wash, and investors are still in fear. The plunge on August 5 is even more frightening.
In such a market environment, the market of altcoins will definitely come!
Before this storm came, the market experienced an extreme wash. $BTC $ETH #币安累计交易量突破100万亿美元

From the perspective of the banker, why the shrinking sideways trend is a precursor to the rise.
1. Generally, it occurs after the price has fallen for a long time, and some retail investors think that the time is ripe and start to buy the bottom in stages.
2. How can the retail investors' little money be consumed by the banker? How much the retail investors buy, the banker sells or even more, striving to create a trend of retail investors buying the bottom and falling for a period of time.
3. At the end of the decline, retail investors lost their temper and patience. They dared not buy because they were afraid that the price would continue to fall, and they dared not sell because it would be useless to stop loss even if the price fell to the present, so the trading volume would become less and less. It just presents a period of shrinking sideways trend.
4. At this time, the retail investors' chips absorbed by the banker from the plunge to the negative decline are enough, which becomes one of his capitals for another attack. At the same time, the retail investors are almost gone, and the position building work is perfectly completed.
5. The next step is to prepare for the next wave of attacks, shrinking the volume to attract retail investors to follow, reach the top, and then fall. Repeatedly. $BTC $ETH #BTC要挑战7W大关了吗？

After mastering this method of speculating in cryptocurrencies, you will be like a fish in water in the cryptocurrencies circle. Here are ten key rules:
1. If a strong coin falls for 9 consecutive days at a high level, you need to follow up in time.
2. When any coin rises for two consecutive days, reduce your position in time.
3. If the coin rises by more than 7%, there is still a chance of rising the next day, so continue to observe.
4. For strong bull coins, wait for the callback to end before entering the market.
5. For coins that have been flat for three consecutive days, observe for another three days. If there is no change, you can consider changing.
6. If you fail to recover your investment the next day, you should exit decisively.
7. On the list of gains, if there are three, there must be five, and if there are five, there must be seven. For coins that have risen for two consecutive days, you can enter the market at a low price, and the fifth day is a good time to sell.
8. Volume and price indicators are crucial, and trading volume is the core of the cryptocurrencies circle; low-level volume breakthroughs need to be paid attention to, and high-level volume stagnation should be decisively exited.
9. Choose coins that are in an upward trend, and pay attention to the trend of the moving average in the short, medium and long term.
10. Small funds also have opportunities. Stay rational, strictly implement strategies, and patiently wait for the best time. $BTC $ETH #BTC要挑战7W大关了吗？

Don't be greedy when speculating in cryptocurrencies. Remember these few points firmly, and you will be able to navigate the crypto circle with ease.
1. When you are trapped, you only cover your position to protect your principal. Expecting huge profits is greed. When you are trapped, the purpose of covering your position is to reduce losses, not to seek profits. Don't blindly pursue rebounds.
2. Behind the calm market, there are often big fluctuations. Don't be confused by the temporary stable market. The market may change suddenly at any time.
3. There must be a correction after a big rise. If the K line draws a triangle for a long time, you must be alert that it will be corrected if it rises too much. This is an iron rule. Observe the market pattern to avoid being trapped at a high position.
4. Buy on the Yin line and sell on the Yang line. The counter-market operation is the kingly way. Buy when everyone is panicking and sell when everyone is crazy. This is the operation of masters.
5. Don't sell when it doesn't go high, don't buy when it doesn't dive, and never start when it is sideways. Don't rush to sell at the high point of the market. Enter the market decisively when it falls below the support. Don't act rashly when it is sideways.
6. Look at the pressure level when the price goes up, and look at the support level when the price goes down. Pay attention to the resistance level in the rising trend, and pay attention to the support level in the falling trend, so that you can know what is going on.
7. It is a taboo to operate with a full position, and it is not advisable to act alone. The currency market is unpredictable, and it is important to maintain flexibility at all times. Position management is crucial, and you can move forward and backward freely to be at ease.
+
8. The currency speculation is all about mentality, and greed and fear are the biggest enemies.

Falling
＊ will only make you lose more and more. Only by maintaining a stable mentality can you be invincible in the market. $BTC $ETH #BTC突破6W8 #Meme浪潮持续，你看好哪一个？

The more perfect and streamlined the trading system is, the better, because a simple trading system is easier to execute, and there won't be too many complicated conditions that require laborious screening, but the details still need to be perfected, don't put the cart before the horse.
In actual combat, we can also use some tools for pending orders, such as pending orders to open positions. After the order is opened, set the stop loss and take profit orders, watch the market less, and let the market run on its own. It is a taboo to keep watching the market. Many people lose their execution ability because of watching the market.$BTC $ETH #BTC突破6W8 #BNB涨至600

The boundary of the big structure, using unreasonable small cycles to enter the market is very likely to lead to irreversible fatal mistakes
Those who shorted the boundary yesterday, face the decision of whether to close the position today; those who were scared away by the decline yesterday, face the decision of whether to recover today
Then step by step into the abyss of the small cycle, start frequent, heavy positions, repeated entry and exit without setting stop loss, and finally cause a disaster
Perhaps this is part of the reason for the reincarnation of the profit curve. . Collapse
Green algae head: Look at the big cycle and use the small cycle to enter and exit $BTC #BTC突破6W8 #BTC能否站稳6W6 #BNB涨至600

Sometimes when trading, you have to be a maverick.
Be greedy when you are afraid, add positions when you are doubtful, and retreat when you are greedy!
Do the opposite of most people, and you will find that the probability is not bad in the end$BTC $ETH