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Viza
@viza
My posts serve as a note-to-self of the lessons I've learnt and to monitor how I develop in terms of the way I think. No fancy charting, no conspiracies.
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$WIF If you find yourself sunk in the loss, here are some things to help you. I don't promise to make your losses back, and I certainly cannot promise that I will always be right, but there are a few fundamentals in the world of trading that we should never forget to improve our odds in this cut-throat (literally) community. 1. Set clear goals Ideally before you take a trade or after you've taken one, set your goals. Where do you want to place your stop loss most importantly. Take profits are important but not as much for active traders and if you are confident in your trade. Don't let your losses drain out in hopes of a rebound. Yes they do happen but how often? And could you have generated a better return with liquid tradable assets instead of watching them locked up and burnt? 2. Test your theory And no I don't mean backtesting although that can be a useful tool in many technical based strategies. I mean what is your confluence for trading? I'm an aspiring macro-economist and a strong believer in macro factors that impact the markets. Look at news, follow some live reporting accounts like financial juice on twitter. Be informed. Challenge your confluences. If it's technical, pick out opposing patterns on a larger time frame, what are some key price levels that may interrupt your plan? If it's fundamental, how significant is the news event? Has it been overly priced in? If both, do the same things. TEAR your strategy apart and if the odds are in your favour, be blessed. 3. Discipline Learn to sit on your hands. Don't move your stop loss for no good reason. Before you modify your trading position, run your new idea through the same process as before. Nothing can save you from yourself. Don't take trades you're not confident in and gamble your hard earned clams away. No confidence, no trade. You lose no money in waiting for an opportunity. This is where most people fail even if they read this. Put in the WORK. DYOR as always. #tradesafe
$WIF If you find yourself sunk in the loss, here are some things to help you. I don't promise to make your losses back, and I certainly cannot promise that I will always be right, but there are a few fundamentals in the world of trading that we should never forget to improve our odds in this cut-throat (literally) community.

1. Set clear goals

Ideally before you take a trade or after you've taken one, set your goals. Where do you want to place your stop loss most importantly. Take profits are important but not as much for active traders and if you are confident in your trade. Don't let your losses drain out in hopes of a rebound. Yes they do happen but how often? And could you have generated a better return with liquid tradable assets instead of watching them locked up and burnt?

2. Test your theory

And no I don't mean backtesting although that can be a useful tool in many technical based strategies. I mean what is your confluence for trading? I'm an aspiring macro-economist and a strong believer in macro factors that impact the markets. Look at news, follow some live reporting accounts like financial juice on twitter. Be informed. Challenge your confluences. If it's technical, pick out opposing patterns on a larger time frame, what are some key price levels that may interrupt your plan? If it's fundamental, how significant is the news event? Has it been overly priced in? If both, do the same things. TEAR your strategy apart and if the odds are in your favour, be blessed.

3. Discipline

Learn to sit on your hands. Don't move your stop loss for no good reason. Before you modify your trading position, run your new idea through the same process as before. Nothing can save you from yourself. Don't take trades you're not confident in and gamble your hard earned clams away. No confidence, no trade. You lose no money in waiting for an opportunity. This is where most people fail even if they read this. Put in the WORK. DYOR as always.

#tradesafe
$HMSTR $DOGS $CATI If you sell newly listed garbage coins you have a better than 50% chance of turning a significant profit. It's simply unlikely that we will have a new DOGE a new WIF a new PEPE. Especially predatory airdropped coins. #tradesafe
$HMSTR $DOGS $CATI If you sell newly listed garbage coins you have a better than 50% chance of turning a significant profit. It's simply unlikely that we will have a new DOGE a new WIF a new PEPE. Especially predatory airdropped coins.

#tradesafe
$BTC Look at that sell order. It's still there. I dare you to buy. #tradesafe
$BTC Look at that sell order. It's still there. I dare you to buy. #tradesafe
$HMSTR the signs of strength only come from a broader market uptrend. The net balance is still that this token has no support. Broader macroeconomic trends can only afford to carry properly established coins. Be it blue chips with technological utility, or altcoins with a strong community backing. Of which hamster has none. I'm backkkkk did you miss me 😇 #tradesafe
$HMSTR the signs of strength only come from a broader market uptrend. The net balance is still that this token has no support. Broader macroeconomic trends can only afford to carry properly established coins. Be it blue chips with technological utility, or altcoins with a strong community backing. Of which hamster has none.

I'm backkkkk did you miss me 😇
#tradesafe
$DOGS I think the hype clearance is over for this pair. It will likely start to die down, liquidity and volume drops, and that's how coins get delisted.
$DOGS I think the hype clearance is over for this pair. It will likely start to die down, liquidity and volume drops, and that's how coins get delisted.
$BTC retest of 57k coming up. Will we bounce? Or erase all of last night's work? Let's find out 😋
$BTC retest of 57k coming up. Will we bounce? Or erase all of last night's work? Let's find out 😋
$WIF Took a cheeky short from the top. Stop-loss is in profit, 5% guaranteed. #tradesafe
$WIF Took a cheeky short from the top. Stop-loss is in profit, 5% guaranteed. #tradesafe
$BTC clean break below 54.5 is bear territory. Eyes up
$BTC clean break below 54.5 is bear territory. Eyes up
$WIF seems like compared to the previous dips, WIF is slowing gaining some support. I think range is tightening though, not that it will rocket. Still bearish but quite weary. #tradesafe
$WIF seems like compared to the previous dips, WIF is slowing gaining some support. I think range is tightening though, not that it will rocket. Still bearish but quite weary. #tradesafe
$BTC save your chips. Let it fall all the way. Buy in cheap.
$BTC save your chips. Let it fall all the way. Buy in cheap.
$BTC Whales might soon start to realise this is very cheap bitcoin...
$BTC Whales might soon start to realise this is very cheap bitcoin...
$WIF bitcoin says no to 56k. Intraday bearish call was spot on. #tradesafe
$WIF bitcoin says no to 56k. Intraday bearish call was spot on. #tradesafe
$WIF If BTC rejects from 56k or keeps trending down we may potentially be going back to 1.4 today... #tradesafe
$WIF If BTC rejects from 56k or keeps trending down we may potentially be going back to 1.4 today... #tradesafe
$WIF Have my eyes on 1.6 level. I am looking for a short. Quite bearish on the US economy but markets do what they want regardless of what I think. Consequently, I am only looking for trades with a strong margin of safety. #tradesafe
$WIF Have my eyes on 1.6 level. I am looking for a short. Quite bearish on the US economy but markets do what they want regardless of what I think. Consequently, I am only looking for trades with a strong margin of safety. #tradesafe
$WIF $BTC $ETH I am not confident we are over with the move yet. Yesterday's slump in the US stock markets was felt by cryptocurrencies as well leading to some cascades overnight. The sudden move just a few minutes ago, likely was a large scale liquidation. No I don't think it's exchanges and mass institutions dumping because if so, we'd see much larger declines I promise you that. The primary driver of such a large scale decline across both US equities and cryptocurrency are largely macroeconomic factors. Why? Because cryptocurrencies are dollarised and trade with prices relative to the US dollar. I've long harped on the fact that US markets have severely overly priced in rate cuts. It was bound to happen and by correlation spilled down into cryptocurrencies too. My model previously estimated an implied interest rate of 4.25% which is an unrealistic cutting pace. Not just in September, but the year as a whole. I'll run it again when I'm back home but we are likely not done with the move down yet. Valuations. Valuations are trading at the highest multiples we've ever seen. Why is this? The fact there is genuine value, genuine growth potential, but to a large extent as well, irrational exuberance. In other words, a bubble. Now, I can't say with confidence if the bubble has burst or this is just a leak, but I don't think the overall trend is a particular strong bullish one in the months to come. The primary culprits of high valuations are the AI stocks. They have such a high growth demand to justify the valuations that it is unlikely to be realistically sustainable. These are just some of my thoughts. I know they are a little messy and someone is probably going to try and repost it, but I hope you guys can find some good value. #tradesafe #Marketsentimentstoday
$WIF $BTC $ETH
I am not confident we are over with the move yet. Yesterday's slump in the US stock markets was felt by cryptocurrencies as well leading to some cascades overnight. The sudden move just a few minutes ago, likely was a large scale liquidation.

No I don't think it's exchanges and mass institutions dumping because if so, we'd see much larger declines I promise you that. The primary driver of such a large scale decline across both US equities and cryptocurrency are largely macroeconomic factors. Why? Because cryptocurrencies are dollarised and trade with prices relative to the US dollar.

I've long harped on the fact that US markets have severely overly priced in rate cuts. It was bound to happen and by correlation spilled down into cryptocurrencies too. My model previously estimated an implied interest rate of 4.25% which is an unrealistic cutting pace. Not just in September, but the year as a whole. I'll run it again when I'm back home but we are likely not done with the move down yet.

Valuations. Valuations are trading at the highest multiples we've ever seen. Why is this? The fact there is genuine value, genuine growth potential, but to a large extent as well, irrational exuberance. In other words, a bubble. Now, I can't say with confidence if the bubble has burst or this is just a leak, but I don't think the overall trend is a particular strong bullish one in the months to come. The primary culprits of high valuations are the AI stocks. They have such a high growth demand to justify the valuations that it is unlikely to be realistically sustainable.

These are just some of my thoughts. I know they are a little messy and someone is probably going to try and repost it, but I hope you guys can find some good value.

#tradesafe #Marketsentimentstoday
$BTC we are trading in a local support area. A break below 57,000 could easily mean 55,000. If Any falls from there will be dramatic since we lack a strong support below those levels until psychological level 50,000. Looking for a rebound here to return to 60,000 otherwise we will likely have a rough red patch until US data changes something. I'm not trading at the moment since the crypto scene is too volatile at the moment. You could be right and still get liquidated wide. You could have thousands of people agreeing with you, and you may even be right. But do you have the dry powder to ride out till then? If not, keep your heart close to the market and not stuck on the idea of being a bullish or bearish trader. Whichever direction makes me money is whichever direction I trade. If my analysis is wrong, I can accept that and move on. This is how I like to think about trading directionally. #tradesafe
$BTC we are trading in a local support area. A break below 57,000 could easily mean 55,000. If Any falls from there will be dramatic since we lack a strong support below those levels until psychological level 50,000. Looking for a rebound here to return to 60,000 otherwise we will likely have a rough red patch until US data changes something. I'm not trading at the moment since the crypto scene is too volatile at the moment. You could be right and still get liquidated wide.

You could have thousands of people agreeing with you, and you may even be right. But do you have the dry powder to ride out till then? If not, keep your heart close to the market and not stuck on the idea of being a bullish or bearish trader. Whichever direction makes me money is whichever direction I trade. If my analysis is wrong, I can accept that and move on. This is how I like to think about trading directionally.

#tradesafe
$WIF Pretty much called it. We are just on a reprinting cycle of up and down. The range is tightening with each cycle every week or two until market finds a comfortable price before catalytic news. I don't think we will make a new local low, but we have not finished the down move yet. Strong resistance lies at 1.35, next level down is 1.30. If we break that, quite possible to see 1.15. We have to await US economic data though. Good data could offer some temporary relief but I'm hesitant to say we will hold that. US valuations at ATH and again with rate cut pricing, it is far too deep. #tradesafe
$WIF Pretty much called it. We are just on a reprinting cycle of up and down. The range is tightening with each cycle every week or two until market finds a comfortable price before catalytic news. I don't think we will make a new local low, but we have not finished the down move yet. Strong resistance lies at 1.35, next level down is 1.30. If we break that, quite possible to see 1.15. We have to await US economic data though. Good data could offer some temporary relief but I'm hesitant to say we will hold that. US valuations at ATH and again with rate cut pricing, it is far too deep. #tradesafe
$DOGS A comfortable long area for me would be anything below 0.00122. This is historically a safe price to buy at. This coin could still easily go to 0 so make sure you use a stop loss. A demon sleeps near 0.0012 acting as an extremely solid support point. After the first 2 trading days, price never returned under that. Any bearish retracement from 0.0013 level is a pretty comfortable sell. Momentum can easily continue above that so I would only go short if the charts start retracing from there. Understandable that this is quite a small range to trade in for most people, but I am a scalp trader mostly and these are the moves I look for. Always always use a stop loss. Losing trades responsibly is what makes a profitable trader. Don't be afraid to hit your stop losses. Guide on this to come. #tradesafe
$DOGS A comfortable long area for me would be anything below 0.00122. This is historically a safe price to buy at. This coin could still easily go to 0 so make sure you use a stop loss. A demon sleeps near 0.0012 acting as an extremely solid support point. After the first 2 trading days, price never returned under that.

Any bearish retracement from 0.0013 level is a pretty comfortable sell. Momentum can easily continue above that so I would only go short if the charts start retracing from there.

Understandable that this is quite a small range to trade in for most people, but I am a scalp trader mostly and these are the moves I look for. Always always use a stop loss. Losing trades responsibly is what makes a profitable trader. Don't be afraid to hit your stop losses. Guide on this to come.

#tradesafe
$DOGS Sharp dips seem to be consistently safe to buy. Already made a bunch of money on the second 5 min candle. Stop loss is now in profit meaning I'm guaranteed profit and targets set at 0.00127!
$DOGS Sharp dips seem to be consistently safe to buy. Already made a bunch of money on the second 5 min candle. Stop loss is now in profit meaning I'm guaranteed profit and targets set at 0.00127!
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