'Someone asked me to analyze $XEC and here it is

It's not a nice chart

The price did nothing but fall after the 2021 bull market without having signs of recovery.

The upward movements it had were all manipulative movements used by whales to take liquidity from key levels such as
-market imbalance
-order blocks
-side liquidity

How do you understand that they were all manipulative movements and not movements of a healthy token?
From 2 things:

1. They didn't change the structure. There was no change in the directionality of the price.

2. They leave candles with big shadows

We can also notice how this token did not move along with the rest of the market when Bitcoin and many Alts began to pump following the ETF narrative on Bitcoin started by the fake news of the approval in October 2023. '

This is the kind of stuff that you can find and ask me if you follow me on X

@TznDayTrader on X 🤝

Do you see the differences?
On the one hand we have the traditional system, represented in this image by the G7.

It is not a recent photo as you can see, the most attentive of you will have recognized for example Boris Johnson (former UK premier) or Mario Draghi (former Italian premier and former president of the ECB).

On the other hand we have a set of processors that mine Bitcoin.

The specifications are not important here, I'm not an expert in bitcoin mining either.
The importance is knowing how to choose your own destiny. As much as I think that each individual can choose which weapons to fight their future but not be completely the architect of their own destiny, as life is made up of a complex set of events even beyond our control and those who think they are the master of their own destiny will soon incur errors (read the book 'The Children of Hurin' by Tolkien and you will understand much more).

So choose how to deal with your destiny, choose what you think is best for you and for the people you love.
Because yes, money in the society we live in makes a difference.

Having or not having money means having or not having the financial freedom to change jobs and finding something better, it means being able to raise your children better, it means not surviving but living, it means being able to help your family, it means affording to buy the food you want, the house you want, the car you want.

In some countries, having money also means being able to afford medical treatment.
So yes, choose what you think is fairer and safer for you. You can't stop Bitcoin, it will always be used more and more widely. And since it was born it grow despite the bear markets.
Bitcoin is scarce, it is defined at 21 million, it is free from political and economic barriers, it is a 24/7 open market. Fiat currencies are unlimited, they suffer inflation, they suffer the political and economic choices of their countries. But above all,Bitcoins you have on your Wallet are yours, you don't have to ask anyone to use it.

Are you sure the money you have in the bank is really yours?

Do you want to become a good trader?
Do you want to become skilled in the financial markets?
So get ready to face the most difficult challenges you've ever faced.

Becoming a profitable trader requires a lot of time and above all many sacrifices and effort.
You know that saying 'trading is 10% technical and 90% mind' ?
It's all true.

You can study all the technical strategies in the world but if you haven't learned to face yourself, if you haven't learned to know your mind and manage emotions, it won't help you.

And do you know what the secret is to learning to know yourself? To make a mistake

Make mistakes and get up after every mistake aware of the fact that everything is needed to learn.
You never really make mistakes until you learn the lesson.
Make mistakes and learn to feel how your mind reacts to that mistake.

Be wrong and try to understand what kind of person you are.
Are you scared?
Are you angry?
Are you sad?
Have you lost hope?
Do you want to quit?
After emotions like these, it could seem like you haven't achieved anything.
And instead you're wrong.
This is where you get to know yourself and understand how you're reacting.

And once you know how you are reacting you can change this behavior.
You can learn how to manage it.

And here comes the difficult.

It's not easy to learn how to manage your emotions. But it's essential to do it.

Be a better person to be a better trader.

Hey DOGE

I'm waiting for you 👀

Personally I think we are already at a good level to buy DOGE (not financial advice).
But in my opinion the bottom of this retracement may not have arrived yet.

Surely by closing the weekly FVG and touching the 0.62 Fibonacci level we have reached an excellent retracement level.

This means that the price could lateralize for some time here before going up again and not going down more than it did last week.
But the sell momentum was very strong and we did not precisley retest the structure,
leaving a very high imbalance.

This makes me think it could still go down a little

Bitcoin monthly chart it's very clear

Where you are in doubt and do not understand where we are,
Zoom out

After 7 months of accumulation
we had 1 month to break the accumulation upwards and in also 1 month we saw a very powerful price increase

In November we went from a price of 66k to 99k
And in December we reached what is still the new ATH

So don't be afrais now even if the price were to drop to 90k

We are still bullish

I see 2 options for $ETH

The price reacted well to the 50% of the Order Block
What we can see now is:

- the price reacts upwards from where we are now
(maybe after some weeks of consolidation)
- the price can break down the order block to go get liquidity on that big area of imbalance that we see in the weekly chart

Always take a profit!
It's the only way to grow your capital

Unrealized profit are not and will never be profits!

It's nice to see an investment or a trade that goes well and see it go up and think that it can go up more and more.

But this shows 2 obvious things:
1. You are at the beginning of your journey
2. You don't have a strategy

If you want advice,
rely on those who know more than you to learn an investment or trading strategy and study.

This is the easiest thing.

The hardest thing to work on is learning to manage emotions.

You can find many things and people online who teach you how to invest or trade without having to pay for any course.
An example?

From 2025 I will start a course here divided into posts completely free and open to everyone where I will teach you the basics.

Free to follow me and learn to take the first steps 🤝

As you can see,

Bitcoin has the most liquidity that can be taken on lower price zones

90k is coming ⏰

This is the market cap of TOTAL 3
Weekly chart

For who don't know TOTAL 3 shows the market cap of all the Altcoins and stable coins excluding BTC and ETH

So it mainly shows us the strength that Altcoins are taking despite the market cap of the stable coin (USDT,USDC..)
Later I'll show you a chart where the market cap of the stable coins is excluded.

As you can see since the last low was formed that allowed me to trace the lowest point of the Fibonacci Retracement (level 0 = 463.81 B), the market cap's level respected all the subsequent Fibonacci levels going to react precisely on the 1.414 level thus exceeding 1 trillion market cap.

What I expect now is a return to 0.786 Fibonacci or even 0.618 Fibonacci to then be able to go back to see a recovery of the market cap and then see the Altcoins reach new higher price levels again.

Let's wait to see what happens in the next few weeks

I wish you and your families a Merry Christmas!

May it be a Christmas full of happiness and awareness.
Awareness of the path as a trader and/or investor you are traveling.

May it be a day where you can get your head off the charts and dedicate yourself to your family or your passions.

The market can wait.
This is also awareness.

Knowing when is the right time to operate and when is the right time to enjoy life and loved ones.
The markets will always be here waiting for you.

And if you have a moment of free time, stop and contemplate the beauty of your life.
Because everyone has beauty in their life.
Everyone has a reason to be happy and to be grateful for.
Don't be overwhelmed by negative thoughts and sadness.

Do you want to change your life?
Well, already knowing what you want to do is a great act of awareness and already a reason to be happy because you know what you have to change in your life to achieve your goal.

And if you follow me you know that I always try to give you ideas and interesting news to help you on this path.

I'm planning a lot of new things to bring you here for the new year.
A new more detailed and focused programming not only on the news and my thoughts on it, but also on an operational part of trading and investments that we can follow together.
For those who want to take action.

In the meantime,
enjoy Christmas and the last days of this 2024.

Best wishes to everyone

Without risk there is no reward

Risk is what everything revolves around in investments.

Risk management is the most important part not only in defining an operational strategy,

Whether it is very short-term such as scalping,

Or that it is medium or long term, such as swing/positioning trade or investments lasting years.

Risk management is also an important part of our psychology.

What is our risk appetite?

Basically, if the trading operation we have run goes wrong, how much are we willing to lose?

What is the percentage of capital we want to allocate to a given operation?

Obviously there is no general answer to these questions, because everything is based on our mentality, on our psychology, on how much we are willing to put at risk, on how well we sleep at night knowing that we have a more or less high % of risk on the market.

Finding your % of risk depending on the type of operations we want to do is the key on the financial markets.

And how is this one?

Studying,
Gaining experience in the market,
Knowing yourself,
Learning about your risk appetite.

Do you know who really understood and appreciated Bitcoin?

Those who already adopted it and talked about it with conviction years ago, when its price was a few tens of dollars and a few hundred dollars.

Now it is easy to preach it because it has become much more expensive, it has become more and more in the attention of the media and the masses.

TV talk about it, the news talk about it, comedians talk about it, public figures who have nothing to do with crypto talk about it.

For better or for worse, you hear about it more and more often over the years.

But 10 years ago is more, the situation was very different.

Then you had to be much more convinced and on the piece, because you were really part of a 'niche'.

You were really part of a movement that firmly believed in something that was mocked by everything and everyone.

Not like now where we have BlackRock advertising on it.

Don't get me wrong, mass adoption is good and we'll want to get to this for years.

But it is thanks to those who firmly believed in Bitcoin when it was worth little and were not considered by those who rely on the markets if we are here today.

Professional traders have learned to manage emotions and know the market dynamics. Sometimes the best thing is to do nothing but the masses will always follow FUD and FOMO

Many think this is bearish news for the market.
Many think that the FED does not want to buy Bitcoin. But the truth is quite different.

The FED cannot buy Bitcoin.

As stated by Jerome Powell, president of the FED, the institution is not authorized to own Bitcoin and is not considering legal changes in this regard.

This was also reiterated in various posts on X where it is emphasized that the FED does not have the mandate or the legal capacity to hold cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

This does not mean that the USA will not be able to buy Bitcoin.
They are different things.
The USA through the Treasury can hold Bitcoin and Trump has repeatedly stated that the Bitcoin reserve strategy will proceed.

So dont worry,
You can't be more bullish than now

I am increasingly convinced that the USA will make the Bitcoin strategic reserve.

The signs that make me think this are many and among them there is this news where Trump's signature is potentially enough to make everything a reality.

As I have been repeating for some time both on X and here on my previous posts, Trump is setting up a strongly crypto friendly government and is ready to leave anti-crypto senators at home including Gary Gensler who in recent years has created several problems for Bitcoin.

2025 is expected to be a year full of positivity for Bitcoin.

I'm not just referring to the price that could still rise, even if sooner or later the bear market will return.
But I’m very bullish compared to the adoption of Bitcoin by governments and large multinationals.
I'm very bullish about seeing Bitcoin being globally recognized as a true store of value like gold.

Meanwhile in Italy..

From 2026 the taxation on capital gains generated by cryptocurrencies will rise to 33%.

A legalized theft.

While the USA is thinking of a tax cut and a strategic reserve in Bitcoin, other countries such as Italy and Europe in general through the MiCA are instead trying to cut the legs of this sector.

They are trying to limit the adoption of crypto and make the development of this sector impossible.
See for example Tether with the possible delist of usdt from exchanges in Europe because they did not want to (rightly) adhere to the MiCA rules.

I'm sorry to say it but Europe is a desolate land where efforts are made not to grow a sector that will be the future of the economy.

If you haven't noticed yet, the world is heading towards an institutional adoption of Bitcoin.

Not only investment companies like BlackRock that are investing billions in their ETFs but also governments around the world are buying Bitcoin and even the USA is thinking of making a strategic value reserve in Bitcoin.

We know that if BlackRock moves it is because it knows where it wants to go and it knows that it can reach its goal.

Do you want an example?
There were proposals for an ETF on Bitcoin before BlackRock made it and they have always been denied. As soon as BlackRock moved, the spot ETF was approved.

So always be careful how BlackRock moves and always try to understand what can be the final purpose.

Excellent point of view.
American debt and the price of Bitcoin go hand in hand.

Bitcoin is seen as a store of value and where do investors go to secure their money in uncertain times and in times when the currency continues to devalue more and more due to inflation?
In the assets considered a store of value, so today we can finally say that Bitcoin is on par with gold.

And the printing of new money?
Printing new money creates new inflation as the money becomes less and less scarce as there is more and more in circulation. As a result, Bitcoin will rise in price as the heavily devalued currency will be invested in an asset that contains its value and indeed increases it.

I won't explain who Michael Saylor is because you can find it written everywhere. However,
I will explain to you what it means to own 2% of the Bitcoin supply.
But above all I will explain what it means to have bought 2% of the supply of Bitcoin by leveraging the balance sheet in order to borrow money in convertible bonds.

Saylor through MicroStrategy raised capital through convertible debt issues and share sales. For example, in March 2024, the company raised 500 million dollars through a convertible debt offer, with the proceeds destined to the purchase of Bitcoin.

This method allows MSTR to obtain funds at relatively low rates to invest in BTC

Michael Saylor has repeatedly said jokingly that MicroStrategy will continue to buy Bitcoin at the top of the market, this is cause he has often found himself buying large amounts of BTC at times when the average price was high.

As I explained in my other previous post, the price of Bitcoin has always been subject to market cycles: consolidation phases, bull and bear market.

Now that we are in the bull market we are all happy and everything is beautiful.
But when the trend reverses and we go towards a bearish market, what will happen?
MicroStrategy has an unrealized profit of billions of dollars and a debt with which it bought Bitcoin just as big to repay.
We also know about the silent head-to-head between MicroStrategy and BlackRock on who owns more Bitcoin.
And we know that historically BlackRock has never been number 2 in the market.

If for any reason the price of BTC were to collapse,would MicroStrategy sell?

Saylor would say no, but also at the cost of bankrupting MSTR?
if the price of Bitcoin collapses, the company could find itself with fewer resources to cover its financial obligations, increasing the risk of default or having to sell BTC at lower prices than desired.

In addition, this sale would involve many other things: collapse of MSTR shares, reversal of market sentiment, loss of credibility and reputation of Saylor and his company, domino effect ->other frightened investors would start selling in FUD

Bitcoin has proven to date the best asset on which an investor could bet.
In just one year it's up 133%.

If we look at its history, despite the highs and lows of the price over the months, despite the bear markets passed over the years, Bitcoin has continued to grow in price and reach new ATH halving after halving.

Even this year the first ATH was made before the halving, pushed by BlackRock and the approval of the spot ETF.

What does this have to make us understand?

Surely it makes us understand that Bitcoin is a real store of value.
Those who bought in the past nowadays are in profit.
And following its history if it holds its positions exceeding the bear market it will return exponentially in profit.

Because yes,
Bitcoin will go into bear market sooner or later, because it is an asset that follows market cycles.

Bear market phases, consolidation phases, bull market phases and history has been repeated since Bitcoin was born.

So I give you some advice:
short or medium-term trading is a difficult and dangerous job if you don't know what you're doing.
If you want to invest in the long term and you want to be calm, HODL. Don't sell.
Hold on to your belief when the bear market arrives and you will probably see your positions in drawdown for a long time, too long. But after these periods the bull market will return, taking Bitcoin higher than before.
And then at that moment you will be grateful for not having sold, for not having given up and for having seen a new dawn rise.