💵 Remember back on October 15, we were expecting BTC to rise above $70,000. Despite widespread pessimism, we compared BTC's chart with a similar period on gold’s chart from 2008, and we were right in our prediction (as shown in that post).
👎 When BTC fell just short of a new all-time high, I revisited its chart looking for “clues” since BlackRock is now positioning BTC as “digital gold” (and they correlate quite well).
😳 Back then, gold also surged, nearly reaching a new all-time high (falling just 2% short) and then entered a higher-level consolidation before experiencing a strong, true upward movement.
📈 I believe we could see a similar consolidation in BTC though likely shorter, with a final movement even sharper than gold’s. Why? Here’s some data: Gold ETFs have attracted $130 billion, while BTC ETFs have pulled in only $70 billion (53.85% of the inflow into Gold ETFs).
⏺ However, there’s a twist: Gold ETFs launched 20 years ago, while BTC ETFs have been on the market for less than a year. Demand is astonishing, and the “bullish flag” structure shows much weaker buying pressure in gold than on BTC’s chart (BTC has a capped supply, making it a deflationary asset, while gold’s supply isn’t capped, making it inflationary—hence, BTC’s price reacts more sharply to purchases).
✅ So, my conclusion is: either BTC breaks its all-time high soon amid a “shock demand” scenario, defying any correlation to this part of gold’s chart; or if BTC’s previous all-time high ($73,777) isn’t surpassed shortly, history will repeat, with a consolidation phase ahead. The optimal price during this consolidation would likely be between $64,800-$63,200 per BTC, before a global price surge (this remains our area of interest), assuming, of course, that the market offers such an opportunity in the future. I hope you found this interesting—I wanted to share my thoughts and observations with you! ❤️
👍As I mentioned , as soon as ETH shows strength, Bitcoin dominance will immediately begin to decline, and altcoins will start following suit (especially those within its ecosystem). Smaller managers (market makers on altcoins) are waiting for an "ETH trend," and as soon as they see it, they’ll jump into action.
👉One of the most important observations in the market: when an asset is "buried" amidst disappointment, disbelief, or euphoria among holders, it signals the likelihood of a powerful, impulsive move that runs counter to those emotions!
✅The first significant ETH rally happened in 2017, during the "ICO hype." Prices soared from $8 to $750, but by the end of 2017, the hype began to fade, and people started saying ETH was useless and dying.
The second rally started when ETH had already been "buried," but the "DeFi hype" began, pushing it from $120 to $4,000. ✅And what's been happening in the last three years? ETH has been steadily declining against BTC, labeled "useless," criticized, and declared dead, along with its ecosystem. People are missing the fact that it's the only cryptocurrency in the world, besides BTC, that has its own spot ETF and holds official "commodity" status. You can imagine what kind of "hype" will propel ETH and the entire altcoin market this time, right? I believe so! This time, however, it won't just be crypto enthusiasts pushing ETH up but also hedge funds, pension funds, investment funds, and all players in the U.S. traditional stock market (through the ETF)! 🚀🚀
⏺Conclusion: Draw inspiration from disbelief, negativity, and pessimism surrounding an asset, and be cautious when everyone is talking about it and believing in it (the revaluation rule).
✈️When the time comes, all "anxieties and expectations" will be quickly rewarded, but only for those who deserve it.
🔥🔥There Will Be Volatility, Important news to read🔥🔥
➡️ After a few weeks of calm, significant and highly volatile macroeconomic reports are returning. Based on these reports, we’ll be able to predict recession risks, investor sentiment, future actions by the Fed, liquidity levels, and market movements over time! ➡️ Monday, October 28 - No significant events.
➡️ Tuesday, October 29 🟢Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - 16:00 Kyiv time
➡️ Wednesday, October 30 ❗️Private Sector Employment (early labor market indicator) - 14:15 🟢US Q3 GDP (preliminary) - 14:30 Kyiv time
➡️ Thursday, October 31 🟢Initial Jobless Claims - 14:30 Kyiv time ❗️Inflation (Core PCE) - 14:30
➡️ Friday, November 1 ❗️New Jobs in Private Sector - 14:30 ❗️US Unemployment Rate - 14:30 Kyiv time
✔️ Note: Only the most impactful reports, which may drive increased market volatility, are listed here. I’ll continue analyzing other reports and share a comprehensive macroeconomic overview at the end of the week! Ideally, inflation should show a substantial decrease, close to the Fed’s target of 2%, and the labor market should exhibit signs of “cooling” (a slight drop in job creation, a slight uptick or plateau in unemployment). If so, the market will rally, and the rate at the November 7 meeting could be reduced (which, in the long run, will make money cheaper and increase liquidity in the markets).
👉As soon as the dollar index "turned red," stock market shares, and subsequently BTC, surged—this was mentioned in today’s review. ✅ From our entry point at $65,600 (I mentioned this entry here), the price is recovering and has already given +4% pure movement (excluding leverage). It's the perfect time to secure 25% of the trade and move stop-losses to the entry point (in case of shakeouts, news from Israel, or a lack of consolidation). It looks like we’ve once again nailed the best entry point! ➡️ A consolidation above $68,000 will be the first signal that the correction is either complete or close to completion. As I mentioned in the review, I expect the start of a "big move" following this correction from a 7-month consolidation and accumulation phase (stocks like Tesla, MicroStrategy, and gold, which BTC correlates with, have already hit new highs).
Today, important macroeconomic reports were released. Let’s review them and determine how they might impact the markets, the economy, future Fed decisions, and investor sentiment.
➡️ Initial Jobless Claims ⏺ Previous report: 242K ⏺ Expectations: 243K ✅ Actual: 227K ✔️ Commentary on the data: The decline in claims reflects the strength of the labor market, indicating stability in the U.S. economy. This significantly reduces the risks of a "crash" or "recession" and boosts investor sentiment. However, it might force the Fed to slow down rate cuts (a "soft landing" for the economy), which could put short-term pressure on markets and strengthen the dollar.
➡️ Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) ⏺ Previous report: 47.3 ⏺ Expectations: 47.5 ✅ Actual: 47.8 ✔️ Commentary on the data: The data came in higher than expected and the previous report, but still below 50. Any reading below 50 indicates "contraction in activity." As a result, business activity is "slowing down" (inflation is easing), but not fast enough to worry about an impending "recession" (which may be seen as positive by markets).
✅ Conclusion: The economy continues to remain "stable" leading up to the elections, with a slowdown in growth but a strong labor market. The situation is following the trajectory of ideal data and a soft landing, as previously mentioned. Stability and confidence should positively influence market growth in Q4 and the pre-holiday rally. Investors are not spooked by the strong economy and still expect a rate cut on November 7 at the Fed meeting. The dollar index has stopped rising, allowing markets to begin rallying, as I mentioned in my review! ❤️
👉 BTC has reached our first area of interest ($65,600) from the review and this post. I am already in a trade with half of the previously planned volume, and will "add" the other half if the price reaches the daily imbalance at $64,800–63,200 (stop loss below structure break at $59,000). 👉Locally, the price is perfectly mirroring the correction from October 8–11 (retail was given a whole day to open longs at $67,000–67,500, and then it was taken down). I highlighted this here, and if history repeats itself, we may see another drop tomorrow, followed by recovery on Friday. 👍Yesterday, many channels were “catching longs” at $67,500–67,000, entering dozens of times.
👉ETH – everything has been said in the review (there is a reaction at the upper boundary of the triangle, confirming our view). This was one of the "precursors" of the market correction, which we identified. I would consider new trades only near the lower boundary of the triangle (or after a false breakout downwards and a return inside the triangle, a trade could be considered). Opening a trade "midway" right now doesn't make sense. I still expect ETH to start growing, but through a "false breakout," more details in this post. ✔️ We expected this correction last week, before October 25. Personally, I don’t see BTC dropping below $63,000–64,000 in the near future. I believe you have two days to build your positions before the rally continues. Only spot investors will survive (don’t overuse leverage) ❤️
👉The market is incredibly boring and on pause. As I mentioned in the review, this correction is very similar to the one from October 7-11, right before the price surged from $59,000 to $69,000. While the price is moving sideways, retail traders are being forced into making random, hasty, emotional decisions. ❤️ I still expect the price to drop to our areas of interest. Ideally, the movement should be impulsive, followed by a quick recovery (buyer reaction), with the market recovery happening as early as Friday (my thoughts from the review haven't changed). 🗳 There are two weeks left until the U.S. elections. I believe this week will be beneficial, and we will see market acceleration after the correction and the dollar index pullback, possibly as soon as next week! 🚀 #BTC☀ #Debate2024 #altsesaon #ETHETFsApproved
$APE 🔥🔥🔥What's in store for your altcoin?! 🔥🔥🔥$APE
👉Have you ever had thoughts like: “the asset has fallen so low, I need two X’s just to my entry point – it’s a failure” – I suppose the question is rhetorical…
A good example to demonstrate what awaits “patient” and “systemic” investors is #ApeCoin
👉135 days (4.5 months) of hopeless decline, which led holders to think that this was a "one-way trip", were covered in 2 daily candles, on the news (no altmarket revival, record high dominance and weekends)
💵💵💵Of course, this is not a signal, try not to “fly in on green candles”, this is a reminder that any of your assets, in which you have become disappointed over the past 7 months, will “win back” all the decline and suffering almost instantly and for this, “fundamental factors” and specific conditions (low liquidity, cheap manipulations) are not even necessary, do not forget about the most important law of “revaluation”.
👉👉👉As I said in the review, if a sharp takeout, manipulation, correction happens, then only after the activation of these limits, and most likely before October 25. Therefore, I am not considering new transactions yet (open interest is ATH, there were no significant rollbacks), I will not short (the price grew throughout 2020, 2023 without rollbacks on overheating), and in the event of a "takeout" or an impulse breakthrough higher without correction - we will look for a new, conservative entry point. There is no doubt today about the medium-term continuation of growth / implementation of the ideas that I shared earlier.
💵💵💵The market is now at a moment when the risks of seeing some local "rollback", uncertainty - are increasing, and those who "accepted the risk" and found the strength to enter with me at $ 59,200 (when it was scary) - can fix part of the profit and remain safe from the position of an observer, and those who were "afraid" to make a decision in time are trying to find a deal now, with much less potential, risking becoming a "victim of a cut". Exactly the same situation will be with altcoins at a distance, those who are in "uncertainty", with high dominance, weak alt - do not find the strength to buy and "inflate the risks at the bottom", will definitely buy when we will already be "reducing the risk" in case of rollbacks or completion. #ETHETFsApproved #altsesaon #MemeCoinTrending
👉This week's cover of The Economist magazine reads "the envy of the world" and depicts the dollar as a rocket flying into space. And the context of the article: "the US economy has never been stronger than it is now..." 💵At this moment, DXY (dollar index) is growing, in parallel the US stock market is growing (which is unusual): NVIDIA updated the maximum today, SP500 showed the best 3 quarters in the last few years, NASDAQ - maximums and rates have already begun to decrease (easing monetary policy), investor sentiment in stocks is euphoric!
🤑In fact, this is exactly the kind of “pre-election hype” and stock market acceleration that we expected, but such a bright situation causes “worries” about the US stock market and the dollar, and I think it is important to objectively draw your attention to this. Unfortunately, we cannot know the future for sure, but the huge accumulations that we have seen over the last 2 years (they were at any price in 2019-2020 as well), the printing of stablecoins, the relentless inflation of the stock market "bubble" that creates "massive profits", and (coincidentally) the unprecedented, new "architecture" for investing these profits in the crypto market (ETFs), suggest that very soon, according to one of the scenarios, we will see a scale that has never been seen before 🚀🚀🚀
1. 💵 The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits: 1,867 thousand received - not significantly lower than the forecast (1,870 thousand) and slightly higher than the report level (1,858 thousand). 👉This indicates stabilization of the labor market.
2. 💵Core Retail Sales: The report came in at 0.5%, above expectations (0.1%) and above the previous report (0.2%). 👉This indicates an improvement in activity in the retail sector and strengthening consumer demand (the economy is stable).
3. 💵 Initial Jobless Claims: 241K received, as expected by investors in the forecast - slightly lower than the previous report (260K) 👉A positive signal for the labor market and economic stability, the number of new unemployed has decreased.
🔥🔥🔥Conclusion: the data shows positive changes in the manufacturing sector, retail trade and the labor market - which means the economy is stable and a soft landing (growth without a recessionary collapse) is still likely, this may "slow down the pace" of the Fed rate cut, as well as locally "strengthen the dollar" (locally negative for the markets), but, thanks to such data, investors in the 4th quarter will be "calmer" investing in the market, understanding that the situation in the economy is stable. (today the economy is on a slower, but soft and stable trajectory of reversal into growth, and not a fast, hard and painful one, as in March 2020).🔥🔥🔥 #BTC☀ #altsesaon #ETHETFsApproved #MacroEconomic #MemeCoinTrending
1.💵 On the local chart of ETH in a pair to BTC - we see a decline, and at least one more "squeeze" down suggests itself, but thanks to the growth of BTC (a decline in a pair to BTC - does not affect the price in dollars)
2.💵 ETH in a pair to BTC - has been falling for 1050 days already, to the values of 2021, to which, I am sure, it will definitely return (including due to the role in the world of RWA, spot ETFs and BlackRock advertising) growth of 138% in a pair to BTC to 0.088 BTC for 1 ETH is needed. And the higher BTC is by this time, the higher the targets will be for ETH and other altcoins (with BTC ~90,000$ the value of 2021 on the ETH/BTC chart = 8,000$ for 1 ETH), and I expect an update of the 2021 maximum for ETH/BTC.
3.💵 So, relax, don't pay attention to the "turbulence", firstly, we will be given an entry point for ETH, we will catch it, like we caught BTC at $59,200, secondly, don't forget, it doesn't matter at all how the alt behaves in the long run, everything is happening on the market so that it takes off in the end, as soon as we see the strength of the altmarket - we will see how, testing Fomo, the whole world, which is watching BTC today, will "believe in alts".🔥🔥🔥
👉 Dominance continues to grow - this is a confirmation of the "sustainability" of the trend and the "seriousness" of BTC's intentions. For BTC to grow, it is necessary to absorb capitalization from the market, there is no other way. When we expected BTC to grow in the first half of Q4 2024, we also expected dominance to grow at the end of September - this is an important part of the plan, necessary for a "bright end" and culmination of altcoins. 👉Dominance has been growing for 784 days in a row (2 years), and today, much higher than 59%, if you do not take into account the "capitalization of stablecoins" in the market, so there is no doubt about its reversal from the "green zone" (screenshot 1). During the BTC season, in all cycles (2017 and 2019, 2020), most talked about the "fundamental nature of BTC", and that the market has changed and nothing but BTC will ever grow, altcoins have always "watched from the sidelines" as BTC grows, and alt holders capitulated, getting used to the same rules on the market for 2 years, as a result, a minority earned on alts, today history is repeating itself (memories from 2020) 🔥🔥🔥We need to wait for the "flow" of liquidity from "boring BTC", which will already have set its maximum, into alts, any of which will exceed its growth in a few weeks. But it is important that by this time - BTC is as expensive as possible, which means we must be patient!🔥🔥🔥 👉 "Big profits are not calculated, but hatched", "Big money on the stock exchange is made not by intellect, but by will and patience" - Livermore
#ATOMUSDT - is a victim of "distortion" today, there are often statements on the network that: "ATOM is dead", "the price is falling, the team has broken up", "the project has already grown in the last cycle", "ATOM is low-income", and the reason is the price and capitalization of $ 1.7 billion (42.5 times less than SOL), this "blurs" the fact that: the ecosystem is larger than SOL, the project is more decentralized, such projects as DYM, SAGA, TIA, SEI, INJ, KAVA, OSMO and others were launched on its basis, a large ecosystem of independent but interconnected blockchains is being built. And the profitability of staking (taking into account the drops of new projects) is about 20-25%. At the first significant price increase, the community will "discover" these characteristics.
#ARB🔥🔥🔥 today we also "hate", although it is the most applicable in the Layer2 industry along with Base, which is actively developing and sets records for the number of transactions and volumes, the number of active users, the market is already dependent on ARB. But today... they love memes, because they are growing.
I catch myself thinking that there is nothing to write, since I shared all the information with you in my previous post! 🙏❤️
🔥🔥🔥Follow for more my Telegram channel: https://t.me/traaadinghub 🔥🔥🔥
💵Price bias - the human psyche associates a high price with high quality, even if the price is not justified, and, conversely, cheap goods as low quality, without paying attention to their real characteristics. Cognitive distortion!
#SolanaUSTD - the price dropped by 96% from $250 in 2021 to $8 in 2022, at this point, no one needed it, it was scary to buy it, there were many reasons to consider the project a failure and unworthy of attention, although at maximum values, the community loudly declared that it was an "ETH killer" - disbelief, capitulation and FUD allowed the asset to grow in a "hated rally" from $8 to $210, and the capitalization is $85 billion and today it is "fashionable" to buy solana, despite such an overvaluation, at a time when the bulk of assets on the market are still at the bottom.
#Nearusdt - a 96% decline, and then a gruelingly long "lack of strength" in price and general reaction to market growth gave rise to many doubts, the trend was to sell the coin and buy something more promising, then 10x from the bottom in Q1, and today, Near is starting to be respected, even linking it to the AI narrative. 6 billion in capitalization looks more interesting than 1 billion at the bottom, and the reason is at the beginning of the post.
😤Conclusion: crypto investors today consume an incredible amount of information, experience, knowledge, but forget the most important thing: to make money, you need to buy undervalued and wait for revaluation, and buying already "overvalued" will lead to losses. If your asset is not growing yet, keep in mind that you are expecting revaluation, and not a "miracle" that buyers of already expensive assets expect (on hype).
Is it a time to begin? Hold tight to your altcoins. Don't sell!!! Bitcoin hit $68k in the moment today.🚨🚨 It tried to make a fourth approach to the global trendline. 🚀🚀Buyers' chances of success are growing, as the probability of the price leaving the six-month range increases with each attempt. Before I start...👇 🔥I'll likely make my content private soon, so make sure to follow me here , so u won't miss this and my future content. And if you appreciate my work, retweet and like the post to support me 🤍 🔤 The market's confidence is added by the fact that on the weekly timeframe we see a real price deceleration and attempts to change the descending structure, which lasted since April. ⚠️Now it is important to consolidate above the $65k mark and, of course, break ALL TIME HIGH of the previous attempt. Next, two control zones that I would like to point out, after breaking which we may see price acceleration are $68k and $70k. The first zone is the trendline and the second zone is the top of the previous high (ATH). 🔖 In addition, BlackRock is trying to add positivity again. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink spoke out about cryptocurrencies in a third quarter report. He wrote that it doesn't matter who wins the U.S. election: adoption of digital assets will grow. He also compared cryptocurrencies to the birth of the mortgage market - things developed slowly at first, but acceptance gradually grew. ❓ Do we believe in the beginning of a bullish trend in the winter? 🔥 - Yes 🐳 - No @TradingHub | Follow for more my Telegram channel: https://t.me/traaadinghub ✅ Follow for more to get free VIP Signals, Chart Analysis 🚨, and latest updates. So you will not miss any opportunities! 💰💰 #BTCSurges67K #GrayscaleConsiders35Cryptos #USStockEarningsSeason #bitcoinnewsupdate #HistoryInTheMaking
Same as #ARB🔥🔥🔥 #STRK✈️ was on the lowest rates since last spring, exactly for that reason it's a good time to open swing position with lower risk to hold for a few months, becauses while other altcoins were pumping a lot both of them were sitting down, for more daily and swing positions follow our completely free Telegram channel where our team share thoughts and daily signals, follow for more: https://t.me/traaadinghub #altsesaon
Everyone is tired already with altcoin named #ARB🔥🔥🔥 Everyone sold it out already long time ago, and there are just a few tokens who didn't pump after last spring, one of those is hated token Arbitrum. Exactly for that reason it's a good time to open swing position with low risk to hold for some months, for more daily and swing positions you can join our Telegram channel https://t.me/traaadinghub, thank you in advance! #altsesaon
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