#BTC#ETH#BNB #SOL
New to the Square, let me introduce myself
A practical player, not a 10uP chart god
Entered the cryptocurrency circle in 2017, the trading type is subjective trading, personal performance is 100,000 to 10 million in 2 years, all real trading platforms can be checked, attached are some profit charts, currently ranked first in the bitFrog (formerly Contract Emperor) contract recommendation list
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Also welcome to follow my same name X (@trader_j888)

Ethereum is in trouble again. The day before yesterday, Vitalik's wallet sold 190 ETH again, and it was after Vitalik posted a picture with the text "Ethereum bull market is good". This operation made everyone very angry. It turns out that not only Sun Ge knows how to shout orders to sell, but Vitalik has also learned bad things. Then everyone started to criticize. Vitalik explained under pressure that this was a call to an organization that had been funded before, the program was set up before, and this was the last one. However, everyone obviously did not buy this explanation very much. It felt like a scumbag cheating. My wife, forgive me, this is the last time. Here I have to sigh that the former Vitalik has now become a Vitalik, and the price of ETH has also been greatly negatively affected. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has almost fallen below 0.04. Another bad news for Ethereum is that Linea's co-founder resigned last night. There is news that Linea will be merged into Consensys Metamask. This news reveals two points. One is that Linea and the Ethereum Foundation Consensys have financial difficulties, and the majority of the Mao group members may be reversed again!

#新币挖矿HMSTR #ETH #以太坊基金会

The Bitcoin type is a conspiracy group behind the scenes.

Today, the market value has been hyped up to 6 billion US dollars, and the over-the-counter price is as high as 40 US dollars per coin.
The main reason for this high level is that it is all based on over-the-counter transactions, and the chips are not transparent. The project teamed up with several big dealers to control public opinion, and everyone staged a play together, waiting for fools to enter the market to take over. According to the current situation, it is not ruled out that the price will be pushed to 100 US dollars per coin.

If you want to learn how to cut leeks, you must understand these two key points:

1. Send a small amount of chips out in a dispersed manner.

2. The big dealers hold slightly more chips than leeks.
Then, through unregulated over-the-counter transactions, the water is thoroughly mixed, shouting and screaming, and the price is hyped up. As long as there is a fool entering the market, he can be firmly trapped. As for the so-called cat20, it is simply a gimmick to fool you into buying FB, and then slowly take away your FB. The team will continue to cash out and keep selling.

This project is completely different from the phenomenal hot spots such as pumpfun or brc20 that were once popular. The essence of the sub-coin is that the family members cut their own leeks, and the threshold is extremely high. Only those who hold FB will go to this "casino" to play. In contrast, the reason why Solana's pump is popular is that various celebrity coins drove traffic in the early days, with low user thresholds, simple models, and friendly experience. The reason why the inscription is awesome is that it can not only be popular in the Bitcoin ecosystem, but also spill over to ETH, Solana, Avax, BNB, and even smaller public chains.

And what about cat20? You just wait and see. Sooner or later, the Bitcoin ecosystem will be ruined by these conspiracy groups. It will always be a small circle of people consuming internal friction. The big brothers rush to the front and cut not outsiders, but brothers in their own group.

#新币挖矿HMSTR
#美降息25个基点预期升温

Many people think that TON is giving money to the money-grabbing party and the studio, but in fact, the wealth effect of TON is nothing compared to L2.

Think about the fact that an ARB premium account could earn more than 2,000 dollars in the past. My friend only operated 100 accounts and earned 300,000 dollars. The cost of STRK's low-income account is only a few U, and one account can earn 600-700 dollars. Many studios rely on thousands of accounts to earn hundreds of thousands of dollars. As for Wormhole, the cost is only 1U per account, but the income is 1-2K dollars, and 1,000 accounts can bring a return of millions of dollars.

On the other hand, TG has 10,000 accounts, and each account costs more than 20U, and the final income from DOGS is only about 200,000 dollars. To achieve the level of 10,000 accounts, the source, cost and risk control requirements of the account are higher. As far as I know, there are not many people who can really operate the level of 10,000 accounts.
The number of accounts has increased tenfold, but the income is not even "pork trotter rice". Because the number of TON airdrop users is 50 times that of L2, a large L2 airdrop only has hundreds of thousands of participants, while the scale of TON airdrop users is in the tens of millions. In terms of wealth effect, the wealth effect of TG ecology and Layer 2 is simply incomparable.

Why am I optimistic and bullish on TG ecology? Because the old narrative is no longer valid. You say you make a lot of money? Ask those who have made money from Layer2 airdrops. After looking at the returns I calculated, they probably think it’s average, right?

From an investment perspective, in terms of capital investment, my layout in the ETH ecology far exceeds my investment in TON, and these are all sunk costs. Now, there is little hope for the issuance of ETH-related ecological coins, and the valuation is also worrying. Telling the truth is never easy, but it also makes people sober-the ETH-related ecology is declining, and the TG ecology is rising. The next killer application is likely not to appear in ETH, but will be born in TON.

#新币挖矿HMSTR

The shorter the time period, the harder it is to judge trading opportunities.

There is a saying that everyone is familiar with: the capital market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term.

In the currency circle, this short term, or even the unbearable length of time, everyone hopes to get rich overnight.

This is also why the currency circle is difficult to play. The time period is too short. In fact, it is more of a gambling of luck. What you earn by luck will also be lost by strength.

Is it so difficult to wait for a good bottom-picking structure?

Generally, there will always be one or two opportunities in a year. What is certain? That is, there will be black swans in the currency circle every year. This is certain.

From the big drop in 2018, to the bottoming in 2019, to 312 in 20, to 519 in 21, to FTX in 22, to Silicon Valley Bank in 23, and the low-volume volatility bottoming before ETFs passed.

There will always be a clear event or a very good structure to build a position. Why do people still lose money?

Because there is an opportunity once a year, we can't wait, we need to double 10 times every day

#新币挖矿HMSTR

According to the OTC price of 30u, FB's market value is already 6b. If it is 70U, it will be 14B, surpassing Ton and ranking 9th after Doge. It has low circulation and high market value. If it increases by more than double, who will take over?

If you dare not let go of altcoins, today is your tomorrow. The operations of converting restricted shares into securities lending and then into tradable shares in A-shares have now been moved to the cryptocurrency circle without any cover-up, and have been upgraded and optimized.

Think about how many leeks who have experienced the 6,000 points in 2007 are still fantasizing about going back one day in A-shares? Don't be in a hurry to laugh at A-shares, our cryptocurrency market is even more ruthless. If you are speculating in altcoins in the secondary market, you must stand from the perspective of the banker and think about how he can maximize his interests.

For example: Why is the FDV (fully diluted market value) of new coins high when they open? Why can the price keep falling before the project party unlocks it? If the banker can make money from contracts, why should he choose to hoard spot with higher risks? If he can issue a new coin, why should he spend money to lift the old coin that has been hoarded by leeks?

Besides, A-share stocks at least have operating entities, and can study the fundamentals. Most projects in the cryptocurrency circle have no entities, and there is almost no so-called fundamentals. But the routine of cutting leeks is the same. There is no so-called cycle for altcoins. They basically reach their peak when they debut. If you don’t sell them when liquidity is the best, you will be on an endless road to zero.
Come to the cryptocurrency circle, remember - you are here to make money, not to invest, only to speculate! If you take it seriously, you will lose!

#美降息25个基点预期升温
#美国经济软着陆？

FB split is really a bit like the POW version of Melin

In order to attract new users and traffic, Unisat created a so-called Swap and used sats handling fees, intending to completely drain the traffic of the sats community. Now they are playing it clearly, but what is the result? They fooled everyone into doing the split of their own POW "innovation chain", and dragged the people of the pizza community into the water, making them believe that pizzaswap will be the future handling fee and empowerment token.

But the current split has made the people of the sats and pizza communities dumbfounded, right? There is only one token that can be enabled on the split, which is FB, and sats and pizza have been left as scraps. Isn't it infuriating?

To put it bluntly, this split is a POW-L2 chain, and there must be hot spots, and the money-making effect will not be bad at the beginning. But if you expect it to boost the inscription ecosystem, don't dream, lower your expectations as soon as possible, and you still have to look at the new ecosystem and new gameplay.

As for this kind of L2 chain, look at Ethereum, there are a lot of Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, etc., and the slogans are exactly the same as the FB type? But at least they use ETH native currency, and the settlement token is guaranteed. And this type? It is FB, and it is not even as maneuverable as Melin.

Brothers, don't have too high expectations, find an opportunity to run early.

#美降息25个基点预期升温
#美国8月核心CPI超预期

Even dogs don't play with Ethereum? Why is Ethereum as dead as ever throughout 2024? In fact, the overall altcoin market this year is not doing well, and the same is true for Ethereum, the leader of altcoins.

ETH is trading only 0.02% higher than its opening price on January 1, while Bitcoin has soared by about 36% in 2024. It's not rising as fast as others, but it's falling more than others. Isn't it infuriating? Ethereum has fallen 34% in the past 90 days, underperforming Bitcoin, which has only fallen 15% in the same period.  The ETH/BTC ratio has also fallen by about 22% in the past three months, reaching a multi-year low of 0.04057 on September 11.  

The decline in the ETH/BTC ratio indicates that there is insufficient demand for Ether, and investors prefer Bitcoin to ETH. Specifically, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has been more successful than the spot Ethereum ETF to a large extent since it was approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 10.

Whether the performance is good or not depends on the comparison of peers. Ethereum has been really bad recently. The active addresses of Ethereum DApp have dropped by 19% in the past 30 days. During the same period, the total number of UAWs of competing blockchains such as Solana and Tron increased by 257% and 343% respectively.

#美降息25个基点预期升温

The US August CPI data was basically in line with expectations, and the market rose as expected after the inducement.

Last night, the United States announced the August CPI data. As expected, there were basically no surprises, which was completely in line with market expectations. Why? Because the 25 basis point interest rate cut on the 18th is basically a done deal, and this CPI data must provide support for the interest rate cut. Even if the data is a bit watered down, it is reasonable to find a reasonable reason for the interest rate cut, and everyone understands. Therefore, it is not surprising that the CPI is in line with expectations this time.

As for the next interest rate cut, it will definitely be after the presidential election. The Federal Reserve will definitely give the new president a face and directly cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Just like the emperor in ancient times ascended the throne and pardoned the world, the new president will definitely release a large amount of money after taking office to stimulate the economy and win the support of the people. The Federal Reserve will definitely play this card, just like an open card, and it basically can't escape.

Let's talk about last night's market. In the morning, the result of the debate between Trump and Harris was revealed. Trump was almost completely defeated. The president who knows the most about encryption in the currency circle was defeated. The currency circle naturally had to pay for it - so Bitcoin fell by $1,000 in one breath. This is not over yet. When the CPI data came out in the evening, the U.S. stock market also fell sharply at the opening. As a small follower of the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin fell to around $55,700. At this time, many people in the market began to chase shorts.
But when there are many people, the dealer likes to reverse the hand and blow up the shorts. The market achieved a V-shaped reversal within two hours. Cutting leeks is an old routine. Those who chase shorts can only stop losses and cut meat.

Now Bitcoin has returned to $58,200. From the K-line, the 1-hour and 4-hour levels are still an upward trend, but the strength is obviously a bit weak, and it feels like it is rushing the last wave. The 12-hour and daily levels are still in an upward trend. There will definitely be a short-term correction, but before the interest rate cut is implemented, the general direction is still bullish. The current pressure level is 59700, and the support level is 56600.

#美降息25个基点预期升温

一个比较真实的情绪反应，之前牛市的时候，如果有某个博主说，预计后市要下跌，或者准备做空的时候，底下的评论几乎全是冷嘲热讽，比如最经典的就是“你踏空了吧”。

经历这一段时间上下插针暴走，大家学会了宏观，现在如果看多的话，底下的评论会是：1.别想了，降息后美股要暴跌，大饼怎么可能独善其身。2.先看48K，再看38K。3.今年没戏了，明年再说了。

所以，每个阶段的情绪都会有比较极端的时候，当极端出现的时候，说明方向可能会偏向于少数人。

#美国经济软着陆？
#美国大选如何影响加密产业？

There are four situations to judge when Ethereum can move towards an independent market:

1: Bitcoin ETF funds enter a sluggish stage, and large funds have nothing to speculate, so they can only turn to Ethereum, because other targets cannot accommodate too much funds for the time being;

2: Ethereum's ETF application is approved, which is equivalent to the approval of Bitcoin ETF (has happened)

3: Ethereum conducts a wave of super liquidation to clear the leveraged funds that are currently making up for the large-scale increase in Ethereum;

4: A phenomenal track suddenly appears in the Ethereum ecosystem, similar to the DeFi and NFT tracks during the last bull market;

Of these four situations, if two of them occur, it means that Ethereum's independent market has arrived

#以太坊基金会

Yesterday, the whole network was talking about Shenyu's 16-19-month bearish outlook. Shenyu also came out to refute the rumor, saying that he just didn't believe in everyone's expectations of the previous interest rate cuts. He believed that only in the middle and late stages of the interest rate cuts, when the interest rate is low enough, will off-market funds flow into the currency market on a large scale. I personally think that Shenyu's explanation is logically correct, but whether the market will follow the routine is not certain, especially this theory obviously conflicts with the Bitcoin four-year cycle theory. I personally believe that this cycle has not ended yet, and I continue to be optimistic about the arrival of the Q4 and Q1 alt season next year. The market has already shown a certain trend. In the past two weeks, the market's correction and alt season have actually been very strong. Last night, the market rebounded and alt seasons instantly formed a general rise, indicating that the funds in the currency market have been suppressed for a long time. The latest report from bitfiniex also said that the dominant position of Bitcoin has peaked, and the performance of alt seasons in the next few months will be better than that of Bitcoin. This is consistent with my opinion. The Q4 alt season is coming soon.
#美国经济软着陆？
#以太坊基金会

Will the cryptocurrency market plummet or take off next? Let's take a look at the laws of history and perhaps find the answer.

Let's review the previous big drops:

Before the bull market broke out in 2017, after the "94 incident", Bitcoin was cut in half and altcoins fell by 80%-90%;

On March 12, 2020, Bitcoin fell by 63%, and altcoins generally fell by 90%-95%;

In September 2020, Bitcoin only fell by 20%, but the DeFi sector pulled back by 90%;

On May 19, 2021, Bitcoin was cut in half again, and altcoins fell by 80%-90%;

From March 2024 to now, Bitcoin has pulled back by 33% at most, and altcoins have still fallen by 80%-90%.

Logically speaking, it should rebound after such a big drop, but in recent days, there has been another big drop, and the market has fallen into panic. Yesterday, several people came to talk to me and said that some people lost 6 million, some lost 1 million, and some lost 3 million. Most people are losing money, some are book losses, some are real losses, especially those who added leverage and played contracts, their positions were blown up overnight. All the money they made before was returned to the market.

Now many people have lost a lot in the currency circle, and their tempers have become irritable, and they often quarrel with others. In fact, there is no need to do so. It is normal for others to have different opinions. The first step for a person to grow is to learn to accept different voices. Time will tell you who is right.

#美国经济软着陆？

The cryptocurrency market has basically been quiet for half a year, and there will be a periodic market trend; in terms of time, it will last about 1-2 months, and if optimistic, it will start with 7; whether it can become a bull market relay is another matter, I will first define it as a rebound market;

Maybe, after that, at least until the New Year, it will be garbage time, and a large range of fluctuations will be maintained before a clear trend will appear. The intervention of old money in the cryptocurrency market will first make the market suffer to the extreme.

#美国经济软着陆？

Let's talk about the ones that have a greater impact on the current market:

1: Mentougou incident (basically settled and sold off)

2: Russia sells chips (no chips are sold off)

3: Grayscale holdings (this is still quite influential) The largest holding institution in the past, and the cost of chips is very low. They will also sell off from time to time in the future

4: There is also the FTX incident (the FTX crash has been going on for so long, and the compensation will slowly be implemented) The implementation of the compensation will also bring a lot of liquidity into the market again

5: In addition, BlackRock has been increasing its holdings (increasing holdings is definitely optimistic about the future market) It is also a good tranquilizer for the current market

6: The interest rate cut will be implemented on September 18 (the specific basis point has not yet been determined)

7: US election debate (starting on September 10)

#美国经济软着陆？
#BTC走势分析

Wealth requires the use of rules
Some of Shenyu's early wealth came from reselling MTG's USD recharge
Some came from JD.com
How to operate?
Buy graphics cards on JD.com, use them for mining, and when the warranty period is about to expire, put the idle cards in the microwave to break them, and then apply for after-sales repairs in batches. Graphics cards are iterated very quickly, and at this time, there is a high probability that you will be compensated with a new model, and some will be returned to you at the original price.
Of course, if you do this, the rules will change. Later, JD.com introduced a mechanism that mining graphics cards will not be compensated.
It can be said that Shenyu was a person who was good at exploiting loopholes in the early days.
Of course, people's patterns and thoughts will become better as they become rich. The current Shenyu is definitely different from before.