煌道 | 交易之道搬运号

On May 18th, global financial assets showed a synchronized decline.

In the macro context of accelerated capital withdrawal, major markets continued their downward trajectory during today's early trading session, following significant sell-offs last week. Investors can observe that stock markets in Japan and South Korea, along with US index futures, precious metals, and the crypto space, are all experiencing a downward trend.

In terms of crypto assets, BTC and ETH have both fallen below critical support levels. This market action clearly indicates that the recent rebound that started from the 60k level has officially come to an end. Moving forward, the entire cryptocurrency market is expected to re-enter a bearish downtrend on a weekly basis, and given the current funding and technical landscape, it will be exceptionally difficult to reclaim the 79,200 high.

Looking ahead, BTC's immediate downside target will be to break below the 75,000 mark. Through this search for support, the asset's movement will create a more significant lower local bottom on the chart.

It seems like everyone's been chatting about whether the A-share market has hit its peak recently. If you take a closer look, you'll notice that the current A-share performance mirrors the trajectory of BTC when it reached 125,000. Both of these markets share a common trait: the momentum for breaking new highs is gradually fading, and the moving averages are starting to flatten out. Before a definitive top is established, the market often experiences a sharp and steep rally that draws in bullish funds, only to then kick off a significant downturn.

5.15 Market Dynamics Observation: Key Support Proves Effective Again.

Looking at the current market trends, BTC has confirmed support near the EMA20 moving average for the third time and has started a rebound. However, as the price pushes upward, it’s crucial to keep an eye on the resistance zone at 82800, located at the EMA200 moving average, which will be the primary hurdle ahead.

In contrast, ETH's recovery momentum seems relatively weak, still oscillating within the original range. After a prolonged period of sideways action, the order book in this consolidation zone has become quite dense. This suggests that if the price can break out effectively in the future, we could see a significant trend emerge.

Additionally, there’s a potential risk signal to be wary of. In the upcoming market shifts, if BTC successfully breaks out and makes new highs while ETH fails to do the same, this divergence often signals a false breakout. Everyone should remain highly vigilant about this possibility.

5.10 Market Watch: The so-called 'ghost story' of altcoin season may have quietly arrived

Looking back over the past three years, countless traders have hoped for and predicted the arrival of altcoin season. However, each cry for it has ultimately ended in failure, leading most investors to firmly believe that, given the bear market environment, a frenzy of altcoins is out of the question.

Despite the general consensus, objective data indicators provide a starkly different signal. Whenever the combined market share of BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC rises and hits the 82% mark, the market typically experiences varying degrees of an altcoin explosion shortly after. Observing this cycle, this phenomenon has been vividly evident in October 2023, October 2024, and April 2025.

Moreover, the current market movements are also worth noting. Various altcoins, especially smaller cap projects, have successfully initiated a weekly-level technical breakout. All signs seem to indicate that the market turning point, which many originally thought was unbelievable, may actually be approaching us.

5.8 Market Watch: Has This Round of Rebound Come to an End?

Recently, Bitcoin's upward trend has been consistently climbing along the 20-day moving average. Based on the current market data, BTC has already confirmed a resistance level at 82800. This value conveniently falls within the range of the daily EMA200. Looking back at previous bear market rebounds, we've seen similar technical patterns.

On the downside, it's crucial to keep a close eye on the key support level at 77800. This price not only marks a recent local low but also aligns perfectly with the daily EMA20.

The logic for judging the next market move is quite clear. Since the overall trend is supported by this moving average, if the price effectively breaks below the core defense line at 77800, it would mean that this round of rebound has officially come to an end. Conversely, as long as this support level holds up and stabilizes, BTC still has the potential to push upward again and retest the resistance level above.

5.2 Market Dynamics and Trend Analysis: Bullish Defense Proves Effective

In the past two days of trading, the bulls have shown remarkable defensive resilience. Bitcoin found solid support as it retraced to the EMA20 moving average, with no significant breakdown occurring. The price quickly stabilized and resumed its upward momentum, confirming the strength of the EMA20 support. Delving into the reasons behind this, the robust performance of the U.S. stock market and the persistent negative funding rates for Bitcoin have been crucial in preventing further declines.

As the market evolves, the main battleground for trading has become clear. Based on recent tests, the pressure zone above is concentrated between 80,000 and 86,000, while the key support level below has been confirmed at the 75,000 mark.

#BTC #ETH

5.2 Market Watch: Bulls Successfully Defend

Looking back at the price action over the past couple of days, BTC dipped down to touch the EMA20 line and successfully attracted some buy support. The price not only avoided a significant breakdown but quickly stabilized and launched another upward assault. This process clearly validates the strong support power of the EMA20.

After several days of testing, the current market boundaries have fully emerged. Based on the present chart performance, the upper resistance zone has been confirmed at 80k-86k, while the core support level below is firmly set at 75k.

5.1 Market Dynamics: Bulls Are at a Critical Juncture

Currently, BTC has found solid support near the EMA20 moving average, entering a phase of sideways consolidation. The next directional choice is crucial: if the daily candlestick shows a substantial breakdown, it would signal the complete end of this rebound, with the bearish trend once again taking control. Conversely, if this support level can hold firm and drive prices higher, the market may very well see one last short squeeze.

Meanwhile, as the Q1 earnings reports from U.S. stocks roll in, the tech sector shows a clear divide. Google's stock price has surged significantly. However, due to massive investments in AI, Microsoft's and META's stock prices have faced sharp declines. Not only that, in the face of strong competition from Google's TPU chips, NVIDIA's stock has also seen a significant drop. All signs indicate that various funds are starting to develop significant divergences in their outlook on the AI sector.

4.30 Market Dynamics Analysis: Warning on Deep Pullback Risks

During last night's trading session, traditional tech giants delivered a satisfactory earnings report, with Microsoft and Google's financial data shining brightly, and Intel's stock price also saw a significant surge. Currently, the entire financial market's chase for the AI concept has evolved into an extremely fervent state. However, in stark contrast to the hot atmosphere in the traditional tech sector, the crypto segment is experiencing a comprehensive downturn.

Focusing on BTC's specific price action, the recent upward bounce cycle has officially come to an end. Observing the one-hour candlestick chart, it's clear that the previous bullish ascending structure has completely collapsed, and the moving averages are transitioning from a bullish arrangement to a bearish-dominated downward formation.

Moreover, on the daily timeframe, BTC has now pulled back and touched the crucial EMA20 technical level. Moving forward, it's essential to remain vigilant; if the daily candlestick ultimately confirms a substantial breakdown below this support line, the market is expected to embark on a new downward trend. Please approach the market rationally and manage your risk appropriately.

The market watch report from April 27 indicates that we can expect a significant reversal in the bullish-bearish dynamics over the next month.

Looking back at recent price action, BTC has seen a four-week rally, and the price has steadily moved into the 80k to 86k resistance zone. On the market indicators front, the funding rate has rebounded from a previously deep negative range to a slightly negative level. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index has emerged from extreme fear, successfully returning to a neutral state.

From the perspectives of the investor community, data from HYPE wallets shows a notable shift. Retail investors have shifted their positions from bearish to a slight bullish inclination, while the sentiment among large whale investors has changed from bullish to a more hesitant wait-and-see approach.

Overall, the current market sentiment has moved away from the extreme pessimistic bearish atmosphere and returned to neutral. In this environment, the market only needs one last surge to fully ignite retail participation, though this final sprint will also signal the complete end of this rally.

4.22 Market Analysis Firmly Repelling Bearish Forces

When many participants in the market begin to blindly follow trends, relying on their inherent experience to determine that the 78,000-point level is just a false breakout, we need to remain objective and calm. In fact, the overall bullish pattern of BTC has not undergone any substantial changes, and it has unknowingly basically recovered the previous decline space.

Looking ahead to the next trend, the next target for the market's impact will be above the 80,000 mark, and even touching 85,000 later is a completely logical expectation. The bearish forces currently in the market are bound to transform into fuel that accelerates price increases, providing strong momentum for the ascent. From an operational strategy perspective, when these bearish investors are forced to trigger stop-losses and exit the market, those specific price areas will also be the ideal positions for me to gradually reduce my long positions.

Exploring Market Trends on April 20: Is it a Reappearance of Past Trends or Does it Contain New Mysteries?

At this time point of April 20, the market's movements have sparked curiosity among everyone. Looking back at last week, BTC experienced a slight pullback after a wave of upward movement. This scene inevitably reminds one of the wave in January that reached 98000. The similarity between these two movements is striking; both occurred after successfully breaking through the consolidation area, consistently moving upwards to touch the weekly EMA20 indicator, and only then began to enter the pullback phase.

However, the development of financial markets often does not simply replicate the past. Recently, the price of BTC has already reached the threshold of 78000, which exactly meets my personal minimum expected value for this round of rebound. However, based on the current market performance, this upward trend does not seem to have reached a conclusion. To more objectively grasp the context of the market, I have set a clear reference standard: only when the daily candlestick genuinely and effectively breaks down below the EMA20 will I confirm that this rebound trend has truly declared an end.

Recently, an unexpected phenomenon has emerged in the market. Many friends are comparing two recent market trends, and quite a few people believe that the current level of 78000 points will replicate the trend of the previous 98000 stage, followed by a significant drop.

In fact, relying purely on past trajectories to predict the future is likely to lead bearish investors to face huge losses. It is foreseeable that the price of BTC will not plummet directly as they wish; instead, it will at least rise to the 80,000 mark, and there is even a chance to advance towards 85,000. This round of upward momentum is bound to continue until those holding a bearish view completely change their mindset, from bears to bulls, before it comes to an end.

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has once again experienced an extremely severe cliff-like crash. It is undeniable that contract trading itself carries a high degree of speculative nature, and participants should be mentally prepared for both profits and losses. However, this unusually rapid decline has strong characteristics of malicious intervention by main funds. Therefore, we sincerely suggest that Binance officials intervene in the investigation, carefully verify those fund accounts suspected of manipulating prices, to confirm whether they have any hidden interests associated with the project team. @cz_binance @heyibinance

April 17 Market Situation Comprehensive Analysis

In the cryptocurrency market on April 17, altcoins experienced a comprehensive market explosion, especially the MEME sector which showed extremely active trends. Specifically, projects including ORDI, siren, and based all doubled in price within just one day. This round of sharp price increase indicates that major funds are actively seizing the opportunity to lift the market.

Turning our attention to Bitcoin, we find that there is a certain divergence between market sentiment and price trends. Currently, the bearish sentiment among retail investors regarding BTC still predominates. This psychological expectation is reflected not only in the continuously negative funding rates but also intuitively in the imbalanced long-short ratio data of 0.76.

However, from a technical perspective, the market's performance remains very optimistic. On an hourly basis, Bitcoin's bullish trend continues to steadily persist. Observing yesterday's daily trend, the market recorded a long lower shadow and broke down through the lowest point of the past two days during trading. In technical analysis, this is quite a positive bullish signal. Based on the characteristics of the market mentioned above, we expect that the significant threshold of 76000 may be successfully breached by the bulls at any time.

Through three key charts, we provide an in-depth analysis of why bearish investors in the market may continue to be under pressure.

First, let's take a look at the latest trends in funding rates. Currently, the market's funding rates remain in negative territory. Meanwhile, the annualized lending rate for USDT on Binance has dropped to a very low floor price of 3%. The current state of almost no demand for lending reflects the investment sentiment of ordinary retail investors, which is at a rather low ebb.

Next, we examine the long-short ratio situation monitored by AI. When the BTC price strongly broke through the 76000 mark, the market's long-short ratio once plummeted to 0.65. In this extremely bearish market, many retail investors experienced a brutal market washout. Although the ratio has gradually recovered to 0.8, the overall market sentiment still shows signs leaning towards bearishness.

Finally, let's take a look at the data feedback from the Hyperliquid wallet. The market has shown a clear differentiation; smaller retail investors continue to insist on shorting, while large holders with substantial capital have already taken profit on some long positions, yet they still maintain an optimistic outlook on the overall market.

Many trading mentors in paid communities on the market are accustomed to using data tables every day to showcase their extremely high win rates and substantial profit points. Objectively speaking, this mostly belongs to a kind of theoretical self-appreciation. Once applied to real trading, these seemingly perfect account performances often struggle to withstand the test of the market.

In the entire trading system, finding the right entry point actually only accounts for 20% of the weight. The real keys that can determine the success or failure of a trade are the planning of funds and positions, risk prevention mechanisms, exit strategy arrangements, and a mature psychological state.

Specific practical operations involve many complex aspects, such as how to scientifically set stop-losses, when it is appropriate to take profits in batches, when to adjust to a breakeven state, and under what circumstances to start trailing stop-losses to maximize profits. At the same time, how to allocate long and short positions in different market cycles, how to define the rules for increasing and decreasing positions, and how to establish risk control standards for individual orders, overall positions, and the entire account. Completing these professional actions cannot rely solely on personal subjective intuition or a momentary impulse, but must depend on a vast amount of data statistics as a solid analytical foundation.

After experiencing the Taco market, the current U.S. stock market is providing investors with an excellent opportunity to recover funds. Recently, I have transferred my assets from other brokerage platforms to the currently popular BIT for U.S. stock trading. Speaking of BIT, its background is quite solid, as it was formerly a senior asset management institution in Asia called Matrixport. The platform not only has seven years of institutional service experience but was also created by the founder of Bitmain. It is worth mentioning that the platform has recently invested significant resources to upgrade its official website to a top-level domain https://t.co/6IKnIfjlQa.

For cryptocurrency investors, participating in the U.S. stock market usually faces three main obstacles. The first is that funds must be transferred in fiat currency; secondly, traditional brokers require binding to a physical bank account, making the whole process quite cumbersome; finally, if one chooses synthetic assets on-chain, they often can only buy illiquid fake stocks. In response to these pain points, BIT offers a very straightforward solution.

In terms of capital turnover, the platform has achieved seamless integration with stablecoins. Users can directly use U for deposit operations, and funds can arrive in seconds, allowing for quick placement of U.S. stock trading orders. In terms of trading channels, as a licensed institution, the platform has established direct connections with U.S. local brokers, making the trading process exceptionally smooth. At the same time, it complies with non-CRS regulations and fully supports users from mainland China in opening accounts. Most importantly, the stocks purchased here are genuine and authentic. The platform covers all market stocks and ETF products, allowing investors to truly enjoy complete shareholder rights, including participation in dividends and voting rights.

In addition, it is understood that the platform plans to launch an IPO subscription function in the future, and I am very much looking forward to this service being able to smoothly catch up with the related operations of SpaceX in June. In short, through this convenient channel, everyone can easily use funds from the cryptocurrency market to directly invest in and hold real U.S. stocks.

April 9 Market Observation: This round of rebound is just the beginning

Let’s first analyze the recent technical trends. According to the feedback from the daily chart, the market has entered a state of consolidation with reduced volume after experiencing a significant breakout. If we switch the observation period to the hourly level, we can clearly see that a positive bullish trend has already been established. All moving averages are maintaining a standard bullish arrangement, with the overall high and low price points steadily rising, and continuously crossing over the various high points formed during the previous downtrend. All these market characteristics are conveying a clear signal that the current upward rebound has just begun.

At the same time, there are some new external dynamics in the news. Even in the face of Iran's sudden decision to close the Strait of Hormuz again, there is no need to overly worry about the future market. This large-scale rebound, which has been brewing at the bottom for 2 months, will not easily come to a hasty end in the short term. One key market logic to remember is that external news never possesses the ability to reverse the core operational trend; it is often used during specific periods to accompany the development of existing trends.

3.31 Why I insist that BTC will rebound above 80,000
I know everyone is bearish; it's the easiest thing to be bearish in a bear market and bullish in a bull market, but recognizing secondary fluctuations is a difficult task
1. BTC was the first to enter the bear market and halved, it will rebound independently; recently, U.S. stocks have been hitting new lows every day, yet BTC remains above 60,000
2. BTC's weekly RSI is oversold; although it hasn't bottomed yet, a significant rebound is warranted
3. The oscillation has lasted for 2 months, April is the month of revelation