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Embracing 3.25: A significant market rebound is on the verge of unfolding

After experiencing a month and a half of fluctuations and consolidation, we can observe that the bottom support for BTC is steadily rising. Currently, the short-term moving averages are displaying a flat operational trend and are gradually converging towards the mid-term moving averages. Based on the current trend characteristics, it is expected that within one to two weeks, the market will initiate a substantial upward trend. The anticipated target for this rebound is expected to break through the 80,000 mark, and if the overall momentum is stronger, it may even reach the high of 85,000.

On the other hand, although ETH has been relatively quiet over the past six months, from the perspective of trading pair trends, ETH/BTC has undergone a thorough market adjustment. Moving forward, as long as the relevant indicators can successfully cross and stabilize above the critical point of 0.323, ETH is sure to experience a very fierce upward explosion.

3.24 Market Trend Deep Analysis: The cryptocurrency sector is about to experience the most significant rebound in this round of bear market.

In the past one and a half months, the market has undergone a prolonged consolidation period. During this time, we have observed that BTC's bottom support is steadily rising, indicating that it is well-prepared for a significant upward push. From a conservative perspective, BTC is expected to pull back and rise to around 80,000; if the rebound is stronger, it may reach a high of 85,000. Meanwhile, ETH's subsequent price is also expected to recover to around 2,600.

Turning our attention to the traditional financial sector, the current stock market trend has clearly shifted from bullish to bearish. With the risks of macroeconomic recession and potential interest rate hikes being gradually digested and realized by the market, the stock market will face significant resistance in the coming stages, making it difficult to return to the previous bullish support levels.

As for gold within the commodity sector, its price trend has currently confirmed a peak. However, it is important to note that this critical level of top formation will not be completed rapidly in a short period. In the coming months, gold is likely to exhibit a sustained and wide-ranging oscillation within the price range of 3900 to 5300.

March 23 Market Observation: Stock Markets and Precious Metals Suffer Major Setbacks, Cryptocurrency Market Continues to Rebound

Recently, global financial market volatility has intensified, with various asset classes showing clear differentiation in trends. A review of past market patterns reveals that significant increases in oil prices often transmit high inflation pressures to the macroeconomic level, thereby triggering concerns about economic recession. This is one of the core logics that has driven traditional stock markets into bear markets. The recent performance of the stock market confirms this pressure, as the US and A-shares, which had previously experienced rises, subsequently exhibited a downward break. The Asian markets have also been notably affected, with Japan and South Korea's stock indices both experiencing a substantial decline of over 4% during early trading.

In terms of commodities and precious metals, gold and silver have also encountered severe crashes. There are two main reasons for this situation: on one hand, some previously accumulated funds have opted to take profits; on the other hand, the delay in expectations for interest rate cuts has directly triggered a rapid surge in government bond yields. Against the backdrop of rising overall yields, non-interest-bearing assets like gold have significantly decreased in attractiveness to capital, resulting in concentrated market sell-offs.

Although traditional macro assets are generally facing significant downward pressure, the rebound in the cryptocurrency market has not yet ceased. Taking BTC as an example, its subsequent upward momentum still exists. Analyzing the overall market trends, as long as the price does not break below the critical level of 65600 in the short term, BTC can still maintain a trend of oscillating upward with a continuously rising bottom focus.

3.23 Market Dynamics Analysis: Global Stock Markets Face Significant Setbacks, Cryptocurrency Rebound Continues

Hello everyone, today I bring you the latest market observations. The current performance of the global equity markets is under considerable pressure. Following the previous decline of both the US and A-shares breaking important support levels, the Asian markets have also been significantly affected, with stock indices in Japan and South Korea both experiencing sharp declines of over 4% during the morning session. Looking back at historical experience, the rapid increase in oil prices usually pushes the stock market into a bear market cycle, as high inflation ultimately transmits to the real economy and triggers a recession.

Meanwhile, the precious metals sector has also seen significant fluctuations. The sharp drop in gold and silver prices is primarily due to some funds choosing to take profits. Additionally, due to the delayed expectations of interest rate cuts in macro policy, government bond yields have surged rapidly, which has directly led to a concentrated sell-off in assets like gold that do not generate interest income.

Despite the traditional financial markets facing numerous challenges, the performance of digital currencies shows a different rhythm. Currently, the rebound of BTC is far from over. In the upcoming trends, as long as its price does not fall below the key defense line of 65600, the overall pattern will still maintain a trend of continuously rising bottoms.

Recently, we have observed that the current market operation trajectory of A-shares is very similar to the market conditions when BTC reached its peak in the fourth quarter of last year. From the overall market perspective, it not only shows a significant large-scale divergence phenomenon, but the price has also broken down through the previous narrow consolidation range at high levels, and it has completely lost the key bullish support zone. In summary of the above technical performances, this is actually conveying a clear message worth paying attention to, that is, the market may be undergoing a transition from a bull market to a bear market.

3.20 Market Observation: The US and China stock markets have entered a bear market range while the cryptocurrency market continues to rebound

Everyone should pay attention to the overall market trends on 3.20. Currently, the traditional financial markets are facing significant downward pressure, with the S&P index having already fallen below the original bull market support range, and is at a critical point about to break below the top consolidation zone. Meanwhile, the weekly chart of the A-share market clearly shows a double top pattern. If a valid downward breakout occurs subsequently, the market will undergo a substantial reversal from bull to bear. If you review the market performance before and after BTC peaked in the last quarter of last year, you will find that the trajectory of the A-share market resembles that time quite closely.

Against the backdrop of weak performance in the traditional stock market, many investors have started to look at BTC's future expectations towards the 50,000 position again. However, my personal judgment is exactly the opposite. In my view, the independent rebound trend currently exhibited in the cryptocurrency market has not yet reached its conclusion. A particularly clear technical signal is that ETH's price is still very steadily maintained above the EMA20 moving average, which fully indicates that the rebound pace of the cryptocurrency market is continuing to advance.

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3.19 The Surge in Crude Oil Confirms the Bear Market in U.S. Stocks
1. In recent weeks, crude oil has surged. Historically, years with significant increases in crude oil have coincided with bear markets in U.S. stocks. Inflation leads to tightened monetary policy, which then results in economic recession; this was the case in 2008, 2011, 2018, and 2022, and this year will be no exception.

2. Last night, influenced by the PPI and the Federal Reserve meeting, the cryptocurrency market also followed with a decline, but the rebound is not over yet. These two months mark a bear market for U.S. stocks while the cryptocurrency market has its own independent rebound rhythm.

On March 18, the market outlook indicated that the price of ETH is expected to return to around 3000. In the recent rebound, ETH's performance has been significantly stronger than BTC. In fact, the adjustment period for ETH/BTC has lasted for as long as six months, during which ETH seems to have gradually faded from the public eye. However, as long as ETH/BTC can steadily hold above the key position of 0.32, it is expected to welcome a new round of explosion, aiming directly at around 3000. On the other hand, BTC's upcoming trend is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend.

In addition, tonight the market will focus on the release of PPI data and the Federal Reserve meeting. From the current macro situation, it is already a foregone conclusion that the interest rate will not be cut at this meeting. Investors need to pay attention to the fact that if the PPI data released tonight shows that the economy is still overheating, or if Powell sends hawkish signals during the meeting, then the market may experience some pullback pressure in short-term trading.

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3.17 Market Observation: Testing and Analysis of Bull Market Support Zone

Before discussing the current market situation, we need to understand a basic logic of market operation, which is that any price rebound occurring during a bear market phase is essentially a process of backtesting the bull market support zone. In terms of the current market situation, this key support zone is roughly located within the range of 81000 to 86000.

Although we are experiencing the strongest wave of rebound in the current bear market cycle, friends still need to maintain rational judgment, as the current position cannot be regarded as the absolute bottom of the market. Once this strong rebound fully releases and comes to an end, the overall market direction will continue to evolve accordingly, gradually entering the second half of the bear market phase.

3.16 Signs of a Bear Market in U.S. Stocks, Cryptocurrency Market Independent Rebound

1. BTC rose 10% last week, showing an independent rebound trend. Looking at March-April, a rebound back above 80,000 is expected, as explained multiple times, initially halving with a dense accumulation around 60,000.

2. Two weeks ago, I had warned that there were signs of the end of the bull market in U.S. stocks. The continuous decline over the past two weeks indicates that once it enters a bear market, the index could drop by 20%, with individual stocks generally halving. It is reasonable to make some principled reductions in holdings.

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3.14 Market Observation and Discussion: Has the US Stock Market Entered a Bear Market Cycle?

Today, we will delve into an analysis of recent market movements. Observing the current macro financial environment, the three major stock indices have all comprehensively lost their bull market support zone at the weekly level, and have simultaneously broken down through a horizontal consolidation range that lasted for 3 months. Based on the trend of the market, the current state has already shown 70% conformity to the typical characteristics of a transition from a bull market to a bear market. In the upcoming developments, if the indices continue to decline and break below the previous phase's low points, the judgment that the US stock market has fully entered a bear market will be further confirmed.

At the same time, turning our attention to the cryptocurrency asset field, it can be observed that the timing of the cryptocurrency market entering a bear market usually occurs earlier than that of the US stock market; however, the final bottoming rhythm of these two major markets often remains synchronized. Based on this pattern, the current 60,000 threshold has not yet approached the true bear market bottom for BTC, and there is still space below.

Additionally, as BTC has already experienced a round of price halving in the earlier phase, its recent overall performance has begun to decouple from the US stock market trends, exhibiting a clear independent market performance. Therefore, the rebound trend originally expected to emerge during the months of March to April is still anticipated to arrive as scheduled. Everyone can continue to pay attention and view market fluctuations rationally.

March 13 Market Analysis: US Stocks Enter Bear Market Zone, Cryptocurrency Counter-Trend Recovery

Looking back at yesterday's trading performance, the US stock market continued its downward trend, which can be said to have half stepped into the threshold of a bear market. However, the cryptocurrency sector has not been affected by the decline of the US stocks and has maintained an overall upward trend. Exploring the reasons behind this, it is mainly because BTC had already entered the bear market cycle a step earlier and had already undergone a deep adjustment with a price halving before this.

What is even more noteworthy is that despite the current strong bearish sentiment in the market, and BTC having shown a negative funding rate for several consecutive trading days recently, this upward rebound has been steadily continuing.

3.12 Market Dynamics Observation: The US Stock Market May Have Touched the Edge of a Bear Market

The recent performance of the market has attracted widespread attention. By analyzing the futures trends of the three major stock indices, we can see that they have all slipped below the support range of a bull market. This signal is very critical, as it suggests that the US stock market has actually put half a foot into the bear market territory. Of course, to ultimately confirm this trend, we need to closely observe the movements of the spot index going forward. If the spot market also fails to hold the bull market support range and continues to decline in the coming weeks, even breaking through previous lows, then the bear market pattern will be fully validated.

Meanwhile, the recent fluctuations in BTC's market performance are also worth noting. Its movement is gradually transitioning from earlier significant volatility to the current narrow consolidation phase. At this critical juncture, if the US stock market really establishes a bear market direction, influenced by the overall market environment, BTC is very likely to face a test of re-attempting to probe the important threshold of 60,000.