美股OK哥搬运号

据统计高达60%的NBA球员会在退役后的5年内面临破产的困境。为了避免重蹈覆辙，勒布朗詹姆斯在早年曾特意向沃伦巴菲特请教适合自己的理财之道。巴菲特当时给出的建议十分中肯，他劝阻詹姆斯不要把资金投入到经营餐厅等各种繁杂的实体生意中，而是推荐他采用每月固定从薪水中拿出一部分进行定投的模式，去购买例如$VOO和$SPY这样的美股大盘指数基金。巴菲特用own a piece of america来形容这种稳健的投资哲学。后来知名投资人段永平也充分领悟并吸纳了这一思想，他同样建议大家在投资组合上不要盲目折腾，简简单单买入标普就是最好的选择。

今天通过收看凤凰卫视的报道，我留意到了该台伊朗记者所观察到的一个十分微妙的细节。原本每天都必定会高喊血战到底的伊朗国家电视台，在最近的两天时间里已经停止了这类口号的呼喊。结合这一情况，建议大家把握好投资节奏，务必要在美股市场迎来超级大反攻之前，妥善完成建仓布局。

I recently noticed a paid research report published by Wedbush, in which the agency set the target stock price for $TSLA at 600. The core logic supporting this valuation expectation is that they predict Tesla and SpaceX will complete a merger by 2027. The report also mentioned that the recent collaboration between these two companies to create the Terafab chip factory is precisely the initial step to advance this merger plan. By the way, here's an interesting background detail: the agency's chief analyst has been a very famous Tesla bull in the industry. He proposed this merger viewpoint largely in response to concerns in the capital market about the potential dilution of Tesla investment funds if SpaceX were to go public.

Choosing to disclose such information at this particular moment makes one involuntarily sense that Trump is likely to take significant measures early Saturday morning. During this period, the U.S. stock market is very likely to remain stable and unharmed, but for Bitcoin, which has no weekends and trades continuously, it may have to undergo a test soon. On the other hand, the current visit to China is scheduled for May 14. From this, it can be inferred that the deadline regarding his personal plans about the expectations of war should be set for May, and there is still a whole month in April for the situation to evolve.

Analysis of the top 20 individual stocks in the US market called by analysts in the last 2 weeks (compiled from SeekingAlpha and traditional institutions), shared for your reference:

1. $MSFT
2. $MU
3. $AMD
4. $NBIS
5. $PLTR
6. $AMZN
7. $BABA
8. $CRWV
9. $AVGO
10. $ET
11. $GLD
12. $PFE
13. $BKNG
14. $RBRK
15. $NVDA
16. $META
17. $RKLB
18. $XPEV
19. $AMT
20. $CHWY

Duan Yongping fed his interview transcript to GPT, summarizing his own 'Duan Yongping's Investment Bible':

A one-sentence summary

Investing is essentially buying companies; you should buy companies that you truly understand, with good business models, good corporate cultures, and reasonable prices, and then hold them for the long term.

The eight core viewpoints

1. Buying stocks is buying companies

- Don’t treat stocks as codes and chips
- Treat listed companies as a complete business
- The fundamental difference between investing and running a business is not that great

2. Business model is the most important

This is one of the points he emphasizes the most.

His order of judgment is roughly:

right business
right people
right price

That is to say:

First, see if it’s the right business
Then, see if it’s the right people doing it
Finally, look at whether the price is appropriate

He is very straightforward:

A good business model = a model that can generate a lot of net cash flow over the long term.

3. A good company is not just a money-making machine; it must have pursuits beyond profit

This is the key distinction between a 'good company' and an 'ordinary company.'

In his view, truly great companies typically have these characteristics:

Not just chasing profits
Have higher-level pursuits
Persist in doing the right things long-term
Not easily swayed by short-term temptations

He strongly agrees with Apple's logic:

The drive comes from making great products, not from thinking about making money first.

4. Corporate culture is extremely important, even more important than individual star CEOs

This is another main axis.

His sense of hierarchy is very clear:

5–10 years: CEO is very important
10–50 years: Board of Directors is very important
Longer term: Corporate culture is the most important

The reason is:

Good culture attracts the right people
Good culture creates organizational inertia
Good culture allows the company not to rely on any one genius

So he particularly values the 'clockmaker' rather than the 'time-teller':

Time-teller: self-capable
Clockmaker: can create a system that still works even when they are gone

5. Long slope and thick snow: A good business should be able to run long and grow larger

This is his classic metaphor for quality companies.

'Long slope, thick snow' means:

Slope long: the industry and company can develop long-term
Snow thick: profit margin, moat, and user stickiness are sufficiently thick

Behind this are actually three judgments:

- Is the industry able to sustain for many years?
- Does the company have competitive advantages?
- Will this advantage continue to strengthen?

So he prefers:

- Apple
- Moutai
- Tencent
- Google
These types of companies that can accumulate advantages over the long term

6. Differentiation is the prerequisite for a good business model
This point is very critical.

His judgments on many industries ultimately boil down to one sentence:

Without differentiation, it’s difficult to make big money long-term.

Meaning:

- If the product is highly homogeneous, it can only compete on price
- As long as it relies on price competition, the industry is likely to become a poor business
- Truly good companies usually meet certain needs of users that others cannot meet

So he doesn’t like the narrative of 'cost performance.'

In his eyes, many companies talking about 'cost performance' are actually looking for excuses for low prices.

7. Investment should be within your circle of competence; only invest in what you truly understand

This is also something he repeatedly says.

Essentially:

- If you don’t understand, don’t touch it
- If you can’t understand the valuation, don’t force it
- Don’t invest just because the market is hot, others are making money, or the concept sounds good

He doesn’t say all companies need precise modeling, but at least you should answer:

- How does this company make money?
- Why can it continue to make money?
- Why is it hard for others to take it away?
- Will it likely still be around in ten years?

His changing attitude towards Amazon, Ejiao, Google, Tencent, etc., also illustrates this point:

It’s not about having a position first and then finding reasons; rather, it’s about understanding enough before taking action.

8. Long-termism: less fuss, less frequent trading, less swayed by prices

He clearly leans towards a very simple long-termism:

- Enjoying company growth is far better than being swayed by stock movements
- Don’t always adjust your portfolio and stocks
- Don’t keep an eye on market sentiment all day
- Truly good companies are more important to hold than to fuss over
His implicit logic is:
- Good companies are inherently scarce
- Truly understanding is even scarcer
- Understanding and buying appropriately is even scarcer
- So once found, don’t easily let go

The 'judgment framework' behind this set of viewpoints

If we compress his thinking into a judgment framework, it would be roughly:

First, ask 4 questions

1. What kind of business is this?
2. Is this business model good?
3. Are the people and culture of this company reliable?
4. Is the current price outrageous?

Then look at 4 long-term characteristics

- Is there differentiation?
- Is there a moat?
- Can it continuously generate cash flow?
- Can it resist short-term temptations?

If we further refine his style, it would be these several tags

His investment style tags

- Focus on the essence of business
- Focus on corporate culture
- Focus on long-term cash flow
- Focus on circle of competence
- Light on market sentiment
- Light on short-term price fluctuations
- Light on grand narratives
- Averse to speculative fuss

Elon Musk has set SpaceX's IPO for June, and the timing behind this choice is quite significant. This month not only marks his birthday but also coincides with Trump's birthday and a national celebration. It can be anticipated that Trump will likely celebrate with impressive candlestick trends, thus the overall investment sentiment in the U.S. stock market in June is surely promising.

Before this, there will be a series of major events to build up the emotional momentum. In April, we will witness the first flight of Starship V3, followed closely by orbital refueling operations in June, and the market's expectations are being fully heightened.

If you missed the opportunity to invest directly in SpaceX, there's no need to regret it; you might want to shift your attention to the following relevant concept stocks:

First is the core associated company, which is Tesla $TSLA.

Next is its main competitor; you can pay attention to Rocket Lab $RKLB, AST SpaceMobile $ASTS, and Firefly Aerospace $FLY.

In terms of partners, notable companies include Echostar $SATS, Planet Labs $PL, and Amazon $AMZN.

Companies related to the Starlink business include T-Mobile $TMUS, Qualcomm $QCOM, and FlyExclusive $FLYX.

Finally, the relevant holding companies include Google $GOOGL, Bank of America $BAC, Destiny Tech 100 $DXYZ, and Entrepreneur Private-Public Cross $XOVR.

Hello to all investor friends. Here, we have compiled the discussion popularity ranking of the US stock market from the Reddit community on March 24. As a communication platform favored by overseas retail investors, its discussion atmosphere is very similar to the domestic Dongfang Caifu stock bar, making it an excellent barometer for observing individual investor sentiment. From the current discussion focus, the fluctuations in the oil sector and the sharp decline of Micron Technology have become the absolute center of discussion, strongly occupying the top of the list. Below are the specific rankings and mentions details:

1st: $SPY (S&P 500 ETF), total mentions 512 times
2nd: $USO (United States Oil Fund), total mentions 149 times
3rd: $MU (Micron Technology), total mentions 129 times
4th: $MSFT (Microsoft), total mentions 123 times
5th: $AM (Antero Midstream), total mentions 94 times
6th: $SMCI (Super Micro Computer), total mentions 86 times
7th: $DTE (Detroit Energy), total mentions 85 times
8th: $QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF), total mentions 64 times
9th: $NVDA (NVIDIA), total mentions 61 times
10th: $ICE (Intercontinental Exchange), total mentions 51 times
11th: $MOS (Mosaic), total mentions 48 times
12th: $YOU (CLEAR Safety), total mentions 43 times
13th: $TSLA (Tesla), total mentions 41 times
14th: $UGRO (Urban-gro), total mentions 40 times
15th: $VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF), total mentions 36 times
16th: $WTI (W&T Offshore), total mentions 35 times
17th: $CF (CF Industries), total mentions 34 times
18th: $ONDS (Ondas Holdings), total mentions 33 times
19th: $GLD (Gold ETF), total mentions 31 times
20th: $ES (First Energy), total mentions 29 times
21st: $LNG (Cheniere Energy), total mentions 29 times
22nd: $UNH (UnitedHealth), total mentions 28 times
23rd: $DJT (Trump Media), total mentions 25 times
24th: $VT (Vanguard Global Stock ETF), total mentions 24 times
25th: $SNDK (SanDisk), total mentions 24 times
26th: $IT (Gartner), total mentions 23 times
27th: $IQ (iQIYI), total mentions 23 times
28th: $LUNR (Intuitive Machines), total mentions 23 times
29th: $DOW (Dow Chemical), total mentions 22 times
30th: $PLTR (Palantir), total mentions 22 times

This update is specially sponsored by @Bitget_zh. If you are interested in exploring the US stock market, feel free to experience Bitget's US stock buying service, bringing you a seamless trading experience with instant entry.

Trump's timing this time is indeed extremely shrewd. He specifically scheduled the posting time before the market opens on Monday morning, coinciding with an active phase of U.S. stock futures trading, and this move directly dealt a heavy blow to the short sellers. Stimulated by this news, the market atmosphere after the U.S. stock market opens will undoubtedly be thoroughly activated. As a result, today's decline in the Asian stock market seems completely meaningless.

Today, the Asia-Pacific stock market is in a sea of despair

Japan plunges, South Korea triggers a circuit breaker, and the A-shares break 3900

Do you think it's a golden pit or the start of a bear market?

Famous investor Duan Yongping recently showcased his impressive trading dynamics again. In the latest options investment, he made two notable moves regarding NVDA. First, he executed the Sell NVDA 170 put strategy, which successfully brought him a profit of 14,000,000, corresponding to an annualized return rate of 24%. At the same time, he also made a layout for Sell NVDA 190 call, which also yielded substantial gains, successfully earning a profit of 7,000,000, with an annualized return rate as high as 64%.

Just lit up the screen to check the latest market dynamics, but what came into view was a scene of various assets plummeting across the board.

What is quite surprising is that this wave of decline has swept not only high-risk assets with high volatility, but even the safe-haven assets that are usually seen as a refuge for funds have not been spared from the turmoil.

In the face of this rare situation where everything is falling, what exactly is the reason behind the severe fluctuations in the entire market?

Reddit US Stock Popularity Ranking (March 19), benchmarking Dongfang Caifu Stock Bar, retail investor sentiment indicator. Memory + energy again top the list:

1. $MU (Micron Technology), mentioned 693 times
2. $SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF), mentioned 574 times
3. $MSFT (Microsoft), mentioned 199 times
4. $NVDA (NVIDIA), mentioned 135 times
5. $LNG (Cheniere Energy), mentioned 122 times
6. $SNDK (SanDisk), mentioned 121 times
7. $WTI (W&T Offshore), mentioned 99 times
8. $USO (United States Oil Fund), mentioned 87 times
9. $DTE (DTE Energy), mentioned 79 times
10. $QQQ (Invesco QQQ ETF), mentioned 63 times
11. $TSLA (Tesla), mentioned 59 times
12. $AIM (AIM ImmunoTech), mentioned 58 times
13. $VG (Vonage), mentioned 44 times
14. $AMZN (Amazon), mentioned 43 times
15. $AM (Antero Midstream), mentioned 43 times
16. $SLV (iShares Silver ETF), mentioned 37 times
17. $RKLB (Rocket Lab), mentioned 36 times
18. $LULU (Lululemon), mentioned 32 times
19. $GLD (SPDR Gold ETF), mentioned 32 times
20. $DOW (Dow), mentioned 30 times
21. $RCAT (Red Cat Holdings), mentioned 30 times
22. $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices), mentioned 29 times
23. $VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF), mentioned 29 times
24. $YOU (CLEAR Secure), mentioned 28 times
25. $EU (enCore Energy), mentioned 24 times
26. $NBIS (Nebius Group), mentioned 24 times
27. $UAE (iShares UAE ETF), mentioned 23 times
28. $META (Meta), mentioned 23 times
29. $ES (Eversource Energy), mentioned 22 times
30. $MAGA (Republican-related ETF), mentioned 22 times

Alpha Picks Latest 03.16 Stock Recommendations Are Here: $LITE. This time, it has become a buy as it gets hotter. Let me summarize their buying rationale in one paragraph:

Lumentum is a global leader in optical communication, having received a $2 billion investment from Nvidia, and will be included in the S&P 500. Revenue has increased by 65.5% year-over-year, and performance has greatly exceeded expectations. Institutions expect a compound growth rate of 100% over the next 3-5 years, with a PEG of 0.82 providing good value. Cash reserves are over three times the industry average.

For those in need of SA membership, here’s a 30% off link below:

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Bank of America just released the March "Global Hedge Fund Manager Survey Report," surveying 181 managers

The main conclusions are:

1. Sentiment has shifted from a bubble-like bull market in previous months to a cautious bear market (due to Iran and private credit)

2. The average cash allocation has risen significantly to 4.3%, the largest monthly increase since the pandemic crash in March 2020.

3. Bullish positions in commodities have reached their highest level since April 2022

4. Allocation to non-essential consumer goods stocks has dropped to the lowest point since December 2022

5. The allocation to emerging market stocks has reached a new high since February 2021

I feel similar to retail investor sentiment, mainly because Trump is in charge, and no one has a clear idea.

It seems that HSBC has also started to reduce relevant benefits recently. I just noticed that the benefits of the Elite Credit Card have undergone significant changes, as the card has now canceled the mainland VIP lounge service. Meanwhile, the previously popular concierge car benefit for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau region now has a quite high threshold, requiring a spending of $8000 to enjoy it. It's worth noting that at the beginning of this year, the condition for obtaining the second concierge car service was just modified to require a spending of $1000, but now this standard has been significantly raised to $8000. For cardholders, the obvious reduction in benefits is indeed very regrettable.

This week's US stock earnings continue to be a chaotic battle + Federal Reserve meeting! My key focus is as follows:

Monday 3/16

$DLTR (Dollar Tree): Discount retail
$BEKE (Beike): Chinese real estate

Trump + Treasury Secretary speech

Tuesday 3/17

$OKLO (Oklo): Nuclear technology
$LULU (Lululemon): Athletic apparel
$DOCU (DocuSign): Electronic signature software
$ZTO (ZTO Express): Chinese express delivery
$HQY (HealthEquity): Healthcare services
$ESLT (Elbit Systems): Israeli defense

Wednesday 3/18

$MU (Micron Technology): Memory
$M (Macy's): Department store retail
$FIVE (Five Below): Discount retail
$GIS (General Mills): Food
$JBL (Jabil): Electronics manufacturing
$SAIL (SailPoint): Identity security
$HTHT (Huazhu Group): Chinese hotels
$WSM (Williams-Sonoma): Home goods

February PPI
Crude oil inventory for the week

Thursday 3/19

$BABA (Alibaba): Chinese e-commerce
$ACN (Accenture): IT consulting
$FDX (FedEx): Logistics
$LUNR (Blade Air Mobility): Air mobility
$GEMI (Gemini Therapeutics): Biopharmaceuticals
$FLY (Fly Leasing): Aircraft leasing
$PL (Pagaya Technologies): Financial technology
$ARCO (Arcos Dorados): Latin America McDonald's operator

Federal Reserve meeting + press conference
Initial unemployment claims for the week
New home sales (January)

Friday 3/20

$XPEV (Xpeng Motors): Chinese electric vehicles

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Dear friends, next week will see the highly anticipated NVIDIA GTC conference. This tech event has raised market expectations to the peak, as Jensen Huang is expected to unveil a "chip the world has never seen before" at this conference. Please make sure to tune in for the keynote speech on March 17 at 2 AM, when very critical information will be released.

To help everyone track market dynamics, I have compiled the US stock codes closely related to this conference, organized by their respective sectors:

First, in the memory sector, the main related stock codes are $MU, $WDC, $SNDK, and $STX.

In the field of optical communication, we can focus on $GLW, $LITE, $COHR, and $AAOI.

In electronic design automation, or EDA, the relevant company codes are $SNPS and $CDNS.

If you are interested in data center power infrastructure suppliers, you might want to pay attention to $ETN, $VRT, $SIEGY, and $MIELY.

The related codes for power management and component suppliers mainly include $FLEX plus $GEV. Additionally, for high-density AI server power modules, you can refer to $VICR and $TTMI.

Finally, in the field of AI inference chip foundry and advanced packaging, the company codes involved are quite extensive, covering not only $TSM, $INTC, $ASX, $GFS, and $AMKR, but also including $ADI, $MPWR, $ON, $STM, $IFNNY, $ROHCY, $NVTS, $AOSL, $POWI, $TXN, and $RNECY.

15 recent US stocks that may experience a short squeeze:

$APLD
$OKLO
$SATS
$SEI
$MUX
$TERN
$PBF
$AXTI
$CAPR
$PL
$HUT
$HYMC
$ASTS
$NKTR
$SCCO

Looking back, will there be a wealth code?

Recently, I have systematically organized the latest investment assessments from several heavyweight experts in the Lujiazui financial circle for everyone. To facilitate reading, I have integrated their core viewpoints by theme.

Regarding the future direction of China's core assets and A-shares, Gao Shanwen pointed out that the value reassessment process of Chinese assets has not yet concluded, suggesting that investors remain patient and wait for the final return of their value. Chen Guo also holds an optimistic attitude, clearly stating that the bullish pattern of the A-share market continues, and overall, the investment opportunities currently contained far exceed the potential risks.

In terms of specific industry configurations and investment main lines, Zhang Yu emphasized that the current macroeconomic structure is undergoing continuous differentiation, and the midstream manufacturing sector will become the core main line in the future. Fu Peng proposed that investors should actively embrace the AI track and dividend assets with high dividend characteristics, while clearly reminding everyone to resolutely stay away from the real estate bubble.

Regarding commodity and cross-market asset allocation adjustments, Hong Hao predicted that gold and other commodities will usher in a long-term bull market, hence he suggests moderately reducing holdings of US dollar assets. Li Bei also adheres to the investment philosophy of "cycle is king," emphasizing that when market sentiment falls into panic, it is the perfect time to boldly buy commodities.

As for risk prevention and bottom warehouse defense strategies, Dongwu Chen Gang provided prudent advice, suggesting that a solid foundational warehouse should be constructed through bond allocation and retaining some cash, in order to calmly respond to severe fluctuations in external markets.

I wonder if the deep insights from these industry bigwigs resonate with your investment thinking.