#Bitcoin

Parallels to 2020.

The Fair value gap (FVG) has been filled.

In most cases, panic selling is not a good idea. Within the next 8 weeks, we expect a rally that is similar to the 2020 post covid / post halving period.

Stay tuned (or "buckle up" as chat gpt would say
#MarketDownturn #BinanceLaunchpoolTON

August has already been a exceptionally eventful month across both equity and digital asset markets, after a “correlation-1” event sparked a major market sell-off.

#Bitcoin has been no exception, recording its largest drawdown of the cycle, causing capitulation amongst Short-Term Holders.

#Bitcoin

The 12 month SMA is the "golden band" for the bull market - we frequently see retests or wicks below that line during bull markets.

Monthly close will be important - a "green" close would mean we close above the SMA
#US_Job_Market_Slowdown
#BTC_MarketPanic_Dip

#Bitcoin

Most people fail to see the patterns and get discouraged. On days like this one, it often helps to put the phone away, take a breath and take a step back to look at the big picture:

1. Cycle Bottom is followed by a strong ramp up until halving (green to yellow box)
2. Around halving, there is a longer correction period (around 4-6 months)
3. This resistance is one of the fibs (0.382, 0.5, 0.618 or 1.0)
4. after this (usually in Q4) we see a massive pump.

We hodl and enjoy the summer
#July_NonFarmPayrolls_Shock

#Bitcoin

Update: We are now at the level of support and our first short-term target. A daily / weekly close above 61.8k would likely initiate a short term reversal.

If not, short-term direction is south with a target of 56.8k.

Note: this is all short-term... We believe in a massive reversal in late Q3/early Q4

#Bitcoin

finding confluence of different indicators and outlooks is sometimes hard. Our take is:

1. We had a classic 5-wave uptrend and an ABC correction with an overarching wave B.
2. Confluence: Wave B ended at VAH (value area high) which has acted as resistance
3. POC (red line) acted as resistance as well (red arrow)
4. 1.618 Fib extension could be an area of supprt for a new uptrend (coincides with 0.5 FR as well as with VAL, value area low)

Conclusion 61.8 - 62.3k is the support area. On the higher timeframes, uptrend is still intact. If 61.8k breaks, we expect a test of the 2.618 Fib extension (56.8k).

Bias is turning bullish on short- and mid term timeframes.

#Bitcoin Spot ETF Balances now exceed $50B in AUM since their January 2024 launch, marking the most successful ETF debut in history. This chart shows the daily balances of the top US-traded Bitcoin ETFs.
#ETH_ETFs_Trading_Today

BTC Cycle
Performance and
Drawdowns
Bitcoin has historically exhibited
exponential gains during bull cycles, but
each cycle has also seen numerous large
drawdowns.

The current bull market cycle, which began
in November 2022, has seen prices reach
~4x from the lows. The two prior bull
markets (2015-2017 and 2018-2021) saw
prices rise 100x and 20x, respectively.


Prior cycles saw an average of:

Nine drawdowns between 5%-20%

Three drawdowns between 20%-40%

One drawdown between 40%-70%


The current cycle has seen:

Eight drawdowns between 5%-20%

Two drawdowns between 20%-30%

No drawdowns greater than 30%
#Bitcoin_Coneference_2024

#Bitcoin cycles repeat.

(1) - All time high
(2) - Correction and Bear market rally
(3) - Bear market
(4) - Bear market bottom
(5) - Uptrend and consolidation
(8) - New All time high

These time zones are based on the Fibonacci sequence, a mathematical series where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, ...).

In trading, Fibonacci time zones are created by segmenting the vertical price movement (from a notable low to a notable high) into several equal parts using Fibonacci ratios. Commonly used ratios include 1, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and others. Each ratio represents a distinct time zone.

Bitcoin On-chain Metrics
The database contained within Bitcoin and other digital
asset ledgers is transparent, allowing analysts and data
providers to inspect the aggregate transactions and
volumes across the network. This allows the
pricestamping of each coin based on the time when it
last moved on-chain. Pricestamping also enables
analysts to calculate the average cost basis for all coins
in the supply and to determine the proportion of the
supply held “in-profit” or “in-loss.”
The Realized Cap is an important on-chain metric for
Bitcoin as it captures the aggregate value of all coins,
priced at the time they last transacted on-chain. In
many ways it is analogous to a form of “on-chain market
cap.” The Realized Cap is currently at $591 billion,
providing a measure of the cumulative capital inflows
into Bitcoin over the course of its history.
Historically, the spot Market Cap has traded near or
below the Realized Cap during late-stage bear markets,
signifying that the average coin is held at an unrealized
loss. We can also identify periods where the Market Cap
diverges higher than the Realized Cap during uptrends,
signifying the average coin is holding an increasingly
large unrealized profit.

Bitcoin will outperform stocks for one simple reason

Apple stock started with 4.6 million shares, now there’s 16 billion

Google stock started with 16 million shares, now there’s 14 billion

GameStop had 65 million shares in 2020, now there’s 420 million

Bitcoin is the only asset you can’t make more of when the price goes up

Realized volatility for Bitcoin has historically been
elevated during bull markets and declines during periods
of reduced attention and adoption. The macro trend for
realized volatility can be seen to be lower over time.
During the 2017 bull market, rolling realized volatility over
three-month to one-year windows reached between
120% and 150% at the peak. The uptrend in 2023-24 has
now been in play for just over 18 months and realized
volatility has compressed to between 40% and 55%,
which is less than half of that seen in the prior two cycles.
This aligns with the shallower drawdown profile thus far
and speaks to an asset class that is growing in both size
and maturity.
BTC: Annualized Realized Volatility
#ETH_ETF_Approval_23July #Mt_Gox_BTC_Dip

The 2024 uptrend has also experienced relatively shallow
drawdowns compared to previous bull markets. The
deepest correction since November 2022 has seen prices
pull back by -20.3% from the local high. Previous cycles
have experienced much deeper corrections ranging from
-25% to -35% in 2016-17 and as deep as -50% to -63%
during the 2020-21 cycle.
As the Bitcoin market grows in size and sees wider
institutional adoption, many analysts expect the profile of
volatility, returns and drawdowns to compress over time.
#bitcoin☀️ #CPI_BTC_Watch

The halving events represent a widely observed event in
the Bitcoin calendar, both due to its reflection of the
programmatic scarcity of the asset and from the market
performance standpoint, which has historically followed
halving events. The chart below shows the indexed
performance over the 365 days following the last four
halving events.
The 2016 (blue) and 2020 (green) cycles are likely more
relevant points of comparison, as they represent a more
mature and developed digital asset landscape. Both
prior cycles experienced a period of several months of
relatively quiet performance following the halving before
experiencing remarkable peak returns of +350% and
+650%, respectively. The Bitcoin market in 2024 has
been following a similar trajectory over the weeks
following the fourth halving in April 2024. BTC prices
have traded within a range of just a few percentage
points since the event.
#BinanceTurns7 #SOFR_Spike

Bitcoin Fundamental Metrics

Bitcoin has a predetermined supply schedule, with the
rate of coin issuance declining by 50% every 210,000
blocks (approximately every four years). The total
circulating supply is currently 19.696 million BTC, and the
issuance rate has recently halved from 6.25 BTC/block to
3.125 BTC/block on April 20, 2024.
These newly mined coins represent a significant
proportion of the revenue stream to Bitcoin miners, with
the halving events reducing this income by a significant
margin. As the Bitcoin network grows over time, the USD
exchange rate and increases in transaction fees from
users become increasingly important to offset the
decline in newly mined coins as a reward.
#BinanceTurns7 #Ethereum_ETFs_Expected_Date

Few #Bitcoin    traders understand this:
If you want to long BTC with leverage. DON'T buy futures, buy spot BTC with margin.

EXPLAINER
(1) Buying futures can be fulfilled by any counter trader who has USD collateral, together you are minting new synthetic BTC to the supply which creates a bearish environment.

(2) When buying spot with margin (borrowed USD), only BTC holders can sell it to you. This creates a supply shortage and a very bullish environment.

BONUS
In a bull market it's much cheaper to fund a long position with borrowed USD or USDT than with calendar futures or perps.

Statistical Bias:

Those who have read the recent tweet on unfinished auctions, here's a couple stats to go alongside.

Of revisits, 84% of unfinished auction highs and 67% of unfinished auction low were revisited within the next four sessions.

This is from the year of 2024.
#BinanceTournament #BTCFOMCWatch

🚨 BREAKING 🚨

🇵🇾 PARAGUAY PLANS TO SELL
EXCESS HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER
TO BITCOIN MINERS AS PART OF
ITS NEW ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGY.

THIS IS GIGA BULLISH 🔥
#Binance200M #ETHETFsApproved

Cluster Charts :

This is when data can be aggregated into group sizes based on tick size. The order flow data can include volume, delta, etc.

As price extends past 2nd to last cluster, a new cluster is formed yet not fully filled, forming a cluster extension.
#Binance55thProject(IO)
#ETHETFsApproved