酒色渐行

US Treasury yields continue to rise
On April 9, Jin Ten Data reported that the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond rose by 25 basis points to 5.010%, the highest level since the end of 2023. The 10-year yield increased by 21 basis points to 4.503%.
(From Jin Ten Data APP)

Does anyone still remember when interest rates were raised, and the yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasury bonds rose? This is like gold; it falls in prosperous times and rises in chaotic times, serving as an important reference for the future economic conditions.

If in the short term, perhaps within this month, China and the United States do not supplement some new agreements to ease reciprocal tariffs, we might see the U.S. stock market truly enter a bear market. Moreover, the U.S. stock market is already halfway into the bear market territory. Perhaps the journey of short selling to wealth begins here. Hee hee hee, let's also become a mini version of the Eastern Soros.

BlackRock has opened over 200 million in sales again, ideally maintaining over 100 million in net outflows this week, just like the frenzy of selling after Trump announced a reheating of old news.

Congratulations 👏👏👏
Congratulations on the official start of the global economic recession!
Empty! Deadly empty! Sell everything to short! Short on any rebound!

As shown in Figure 1, it is an early signal, while the rest are real-time signals. In summary, the outlook is not optimistic. There are still half an hour left, and there doesn't seem to be any explosive news.

At the same position, the buying power has been exhausted on Monday and Tuesday. What to do if there is another crash today?

Will there be exceptions today? Monday is the day when Da A is last even when eating poop, what is the situation today?

Binance's sell-off inventory has reached 25,000, and it has been in a severe bearish range for 3 days now. It seems that Old Zhao has also given up this time; the bottom cannot be fully bought up.

There should be some volatility today, but whether it goes up or down is unknown. Anyway, just set stop-losses. For the direction each person believes in, try to short high and long low, and avoid participating in the middle position.

Is April 9th Asia time? Or Eastern Time? Even if it's Eastern Time, there isn't enough time to negotiate with so many countries simultaneously, and whether there are enough negotiators on the American side is still in question. Therefore, the implementation of equal tariffs by the U.S. on April 9th is equivalent to nonsense.

The consistent style of the crazy Trump is to make a loud noise and then secretly drizzle; speaking is equivalent to nonsense. Just wait, the implementation of equal tariffs will be postponed.

Be careful with short positions, there are large long positions being established. As for whether there will be a rebound, I can't be sure; I can only rely on data interpretation.

I really want to sleep... Staying up late every day for Eastern Time, working hard to earn money for a few years to immigrate to Europe! Forget about going to Mexico; it's not safe. The U.S. and Canada are out of the question, so I won't think about that. Europe still has opportunities.

The Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine war both have the shadow of East University, especially the Saudi-Iran reconciliation, which was facilitated by East University. Even the officers of the 'Slippers Army' were trained in Shijiazhuang. Those who have watched videos explaining oil dollars should know the importance of Middle Eastern oil to the Americans. The Americans do not allow other countries to interfere in the Middle East. Without the strong military support from the Americans, how could the 'Squid' be invincible in the Middle East? Even if Middle Eastern countries used a human wave tactic, they could drown the 'Squid' several times with just a spit from each person. In this round of the Israel-Palestine war, if it weren't for the timid Iran retracting, 'Squid' would have collapsed in another six months, and as a result, even Syria was wiped out. When 'Squid' attacked southern Lebanon, France stood up to support Lebanon, and East University also had peacekeeping troops in southern Lebanon. In the end, 'Squid' narrowly won and once again achieved victory in the Middle East.

In summary, it means that deep hatred has formed between China and the United States, and the intensity and breadth of future confrontations will only grow. Therefore, a global economic crisis is definitely on the way, likely in five years at the earliest or ten years at the latest. This is due to the global trade sanctions instigated by the Americans today. The United States is no longer the superpower it was half a century ago, and many countries around the world are no longer the impoverished and backward nations they were fifty years ago. Many countries will rise to resist to some extent; the Americans will find it harder to reap benefits and will not dare to easily initiate war. Thus, they can only try to suppress economically, create conflicts, and deepen the hatred of populism.

The world has not yet fully recovered from the severe economic blow of COVID-19, and the global economy has been hit hard two more times. The Americans have raised interest rates and imposed tariffs in retaliation, and now we have two major world powers confronting each other directly. Sigh... how could the days ahead be good? Unless we start over, but the process will definitely be very painful, and it will be a long-term tug-of-war of mutual losses, which we are currently experiencing. It's difficult...

Bear market, the main strategy is to short, guarding against rebounds is just not wanting to be caught in a low position, regardless of any negotiations, it’s just a bear market.

I am not making trades, I am just sharing data, I have no results to show everyone, because I do not want to be criticized.

Short positions with stop loss; if there's no stop loss, don't proceed. If a stop loss is triggered, reassess. As for long positions, no specific thoughts; it's up to you to decide.

What does everyone think will be the trend in the future?

Figure 1 shows the trading volume. The first two posts are also about spot trading volume. The trading volume represents the volume of transactions. Although the price has slightly broken the previous low by more than two thousand points, it is considered normal for Bitcoin's value. Therefore, yesterday's rebound is technically categorized as a double bottom rebound. Remember this technical summary point; it is very important.

Figure 2 shows the contract open interest for Bitcoin. Personally, I think it is weak, with insufficient upward momentum, meaning that the oversold rebound peak near 81K will be the highest point this week.

Figure 3 shows the total market's contract open interest, which is clearly not proportional to the rapid and significant price rebound.

Figure 4 also shows the curve of contract open interest. Unlike the time series in Figures 2 and 3, this is a line graph. Currently, there is no sign of a peak retreat, meaning that the open interest has not yet decreased.

Data is lagging, so by the time the data shows changes, the price trend has already moved in a direction. Therefore, it is essential to observe the price trend for judgment. However, based on the open interest in Figures 2 and 3, it is highly probable that 81K will be the peak of this rebound, so manage your risks accordingly.

Today there may be many data posts. If interested, take a closer look. Reviewing data after significant fluctuations is important as it helps to understand the overall context and coherence of the market sentiment.

Every large fluctuation is the best time to accumulate data experience

The oversold rebound has occurred, indicating that the rapid and significant downward trend has been suppressed. At the very least, it won't decline as rapidly and violently as before, but there may still be a possibility of a slow decline or oscillation within a certain range, with occasional false breakouts. This week has two tasks: 1. As usual, try to short at the high points each week and hold until next Monday, or determine your own conditions for closing positions. 2. Observe the direction choice of the end signals constructed by the oscillation structure, which is more influenced by news stimuli, such as Thursday's data, tariff negotiations, and other macro-level news.

This week, the trading strategy remains primarily bearish.