There are many positive factors in this bull market Besides BTC ETF and the favorable U.S. presidential election
But compared to the liquidity-driven bull market of 2021 I feel it's quite different First, the extent of interest rate cuts
The actual inflow of funds is not much It might take a drop to around 1% before a large influx of liquidity arrives
The reason it has risen to this point, I think, may involve many factors
In addition to the U.S. presidential election and BTC ETF mentioned above Yen borrowing and arbitrage traders are also a significant factor
Interest rate cuts are said to stimulate capital inflow But to be honest, it just provided a clear stance
The real capital inflow driving this surge Might be prompted by the election
Trump has participated in BTC conferences And even said BTC to the moon
Now that Trump's chances of winning have significantly increased We can also expect favorable conditions for BTC
The price of coins, similar to stock prices, tends to react in advance I need to guard against a collapse after the presidential election
This round is unlike the liquidity-driven bull market because there is no large capital influx But the election is a variable that might genuinely attract large capital inflow
After all, the attitude of the U.S. Is also the attitude that most countries in the world refer to
If BTC and crypto start to open up BTC becomes a reserve asset
BTC at least 100,000 USD
But my thoughts are still on the emotional market It might decline after the election
The greatest irony of art, memes originate from satire
Everyone must have seen this banana👀
Created by Mauricio Cattelan
the most important satirical artwork in art history
In November, at Sotheby's auction, the artwork 'Comedian'
And in the meme coin market, there's a token with the same image called Ban
Key point!!!⬇️ The president of Sotheby's secretly participated in issuing the coin.
Discovered by Chinese crypto community, he directly deleted the address on Twitter and then burned the coins.🤡
From a skyrocketing market value of 10 million USD in one day to a statement from the president saying after burning coins, it dropped to a market value of 1 million USD
But as I said The greatest irony of art, memes originate from satire
Ban started to surge, triggering a satirical narrative
In 18 hours, it skyrocketed from a market value of 1 million USD to 50 million USD
Soaring 50 times!!!!!!!
A great start with twists and turns, Next, let's see how far the notoriety of the banana can spread.
1. Fed meeting minutes – Wednesday The Fed Minutes are detailed records of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Reflects members' discussions on interest rate decisions, economic assessments and policy outlook. Meeting minutes often provide clues about the future direction of monetary policy, such as whether a rate hike or cut is likely. The market will carefully analyze the wording to speculate on the Fed's future actions, which will have an impact on the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets.
2. Global services PMI data – Thursday PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is an important indicator of economic activity, and the service PMI particularly reflects the health of the service industry. This index is composed of data from multiple countries and covers business activities, new orders, employment, etc. A value above 50 generally indicates economic expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The global services PMI data helps understand the overall direction of the global economy, especially the speed of recovery of the service industry in the later stages of the epidemic.
3. July Existing Home Sales Data – Thursday Existing home sales data reflect market conditions for homes that have been built and are being resold. The data shows demand, home price trends and affordability in the U.S. housing market. Existing home sales are an indicator of the health of the economy because it affects not only the construction industry, but also home improvement, appliances, finance, and many other related industries. If existing home sales data is strong, it indicates higher consumer confidence.
4. July new home sales data – Friday New home sales data focuses on sales of new homes, an important indicator for the construction industry. New home sales can show the vitality of the housing market and reflect changes in homebuyer demand, builders' supply capabilities and the economic environment. Strong new home sales data usually means strong economic growth, while weak data may indicate a slowdown or a lack of consumer confidence.
5. Speech by Fed Chairman Powell-Friday Powell's speech is an event of great concern to the market because he is the leader of the Federal Reserve and his remarks often have a direct impact on financial markets. , which could trigger stock market volatility, impact bond yields and impact the U.S. dollar.
To sum up, this week will not matter whether it is the stock market or the currency circle. think. relatively large fluctuations
At this stage, we see two scenarios in the future: explosive growth? Plunge?
One is that the Bank of Japan slowly raises interest rates by 0.01 every time
Institutions and retail investors react when the Fed cuts interest rates
And the economy has not entered a recession and has once again pushed up stock prices and currency prices.
(But bubbles will burst one day)
The other is that the Bank of Japan raises interest rates but the rate rises very quickly.
(Institutions borrow large amounts of yen at cheap interest rates through yen lending) Go buy assets from Japan or other countries
(Retail investor) Mrs. Watanabe borrowed yen Arbitrage trade between Japanese yen and Australian dollar
And we put a lot of leverage in the Japanese yen position. Because they know that the token economics of the yen are an endless cycle The yen must move quickly to protect the tourism industry
But it also makes exports also face serious problems
After raising interest rates, institutions lowered their leverage
Large amounts of selling in a short period of time affect the market And generate panic, retail investors sell in large quantities
Stock price plummets
At the same time, it affects the stock markets of various countries and almost all economies.
We must face the consequences for institutional greed
When web3 has no more cash flow and falls into market recession,
fade away slowly
Then we enter the recession cycle and plummet
Interest rates return to 0%...
In a few years, institutional capitalists will have enough rest.
Buffett’s funds and funds from various institutions A large part of it is leveraged by borrowing Japanese yen.
So when Buffett sells out Apple, we should think of In the future, he will definitely deleverage Japan’s funds.
Then slowly convert the assets into cash
To be honest, the bull and bear capitalists play every round Almost unchanged
I don’t know if $BTC can change the status quo in the future.
But at present, it certainly cannot be
As Buffett de-leverages U.S. institutions
Institutions in the currency circle are also slowly reducing leverage from high-growth areas.
A large amount of leverage reduction in a short period of time will cause asset prices to fall rapidly. The spread of panic among retail investors may make the situation get out of hand.
The most important thing now is to see the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates and retail investors’ panic
So will this round of BTC be 80,000?
I find it difficult to have too many people on the bus There is no way to enter the super cycle
In this round of market ups and downs, prices are going back and forth.
Too many people are buying BTC
At this stage, unless big funds enter the market Otherwise, it will be difficult to push BTC to new highs
But now the market sentiment is difficult to increase the value of BTC
And as panic among institutions spreads
Will it trigger further recession?
This is what we need to pay attention to
The main concern now is the intensity of interest rate cuts
If there is no big interest rate cut, it will be the day of the plunge.
The bull market is coming! ? Coin prices skyrocketed! Plunge!
2 weeks ago $BTC 56000 I said the BTC market is about to take off, don’t you believe me? Just buy the expensive one now $BTC
Now more and more mid-term trend investors are involved or observing It highlights that there are still many funds still waiting to see
Use technical line chart statistics if it rises quickly to 63000-64000 For example, a correction is very likely to occur within a day.
But if it is a stable rise and breaks through on Friday Then use the line chart to analyze whether Bitcoin is in a perfect mid-term upward trend.
But last week I guessed the wave of $ETH ETF drive prices up
But in fact, it was not Trump’s shooting that triggered the currency price. And the forced killing increased Trump’s winning rate! ?
And Trump’s recent speeches have obvious positive signs!
It also makes some investors or institutions Buy Bitcoin as a safe haven
And driven by the ETF in mid-July, If the ETF is successfully launched again, the popularity of funds will be comparable to that of BTC ETF That bull market is coming! ! ! ? ? ?
In fact, it is not important!
Let’s look at the interest rate cut expectations for September in mid-August. The sales status of Mentougou
Therefore, the currency price is difficult to predict. All we can do is take a look. Discover it earlier than others and follow the trend
risk warning: #美国大选如何影响加密产业? Point 1: Trump is a short-term event At this stage, we need to observe whether the technical line pattern presents an intervention range. If it falls below, we may have to wait for expectations for an interest rate cut in mid-August.
Point 2: The impact of the high probability of interest rate cut in September on Bitcoin And the sales situation in Mentougou
Be prepared, the market in the next few days will be exciting!
Current market sentiment 29 This looks very scary Therefore, if I were a banker, I would choose to cooperate with some news at this time to pull the market.
Let market people think that a bull market is coming
7/15 $ETH ETF hype pull seems necessary
So the market still needs to be observed
But everything is hard to say, and we can’t say for sure when those compensation payments will be made. $BCH
$PEPE What a fool! It fell again😭😭😭 Those are my top three positions $BTC I bought it for 72000🤡🥲😭😭😭😭😭 $BEAMX I’m going to fuck you again, what’s the game ecology that you promised!