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The market may have hit bottom. In the last two days, there have been no news about tariffs, which indicates that negotiations are progressing. This is key, as April 2nd is the deadline for their implementation, and a possible agreement could boost the stock markets.

CTA funds have caused the recent declines by short selling, but now 90% of the S&P 500 has risen, except for the big tech companies. If these start to rise, the CTAs will be forced to close their short positions, which would generate a strong market rebound.

Moreover, the narrative of stagnation with inflation does not hold: inflation is not increasing in a concerning way and the labor market remains strong. If we look at history, the last time there was this level of short positions was in October 2023, and since then the market has risen.

With tariff agreements on the horizon and CTAs in a vulnerable position, we could see a strong rally in the stock markets until summer.

This could indirectly influence cryptocurrencies. When liquidity is released in traditional markets and risk appetite improves— for example, in anticipation of a possible stock recovery after the CTAs close their short positions— investors are likely to diversify into more speculative assets, such as cryptocurrencies. This could drive their prices up. However, the crypto market has its own dynamics, also influenced by specific factors such as regulations, adoption, and technological changes, so the effect could be moderate and not necessarily immediate.
#btc

The era of ungovernability.

We live in times where ungovernability has become the norm. Weak governments, inconsistent policies, and a fragmented society create the perfect breeding ground for chaos. Every day, the decisions that should maintain order end up further weakening the structures that support our nations.

But, is this a coincidence or part of a deliberate process? In a world where institutions are collapsing and leadership becomes ineffective, citizens are left adrift, subjected to uncertainty and despair. Meanwhile, hidden powers take advantage of the confusion to impose agendas that would never have been accepted in times of stability.

Disorder affects not only politics but also the economy, education, and culture. We have been told that chaos is spontaneous, but when the same patterns repeat in different countries at the same time, we must ask ourselves: who benefits from ungovernability?

Now more than ever, it is crucial to awaken. It is not about resigning or accepting disaster as something inevitable, but about understanding that stability is not an accident, but the result of societies that demand order, justice, and real leadership.

Are we ready to regain control?

I want to share with you a reflection on the dominant narrative that is being sold to us about the U.S. economy and the supposed imminent recession.

We are bombarded with the idea that Trump's tariff war is sinking the economy, that tax cuts will reduce public spending, and that the market has already priced in the worst. But how true is this version of events?

First, no one really knows the outcome of the tariff war. It is a negotiation process, not a disaster waiting to happen. Look at what happened with Canada: both countries raised tariffs, but then backed down.

Second, are there really signs of recession? If the U.S. were on the brink of a crisis, high-yield bonds would have already spiked their risk premiums, but that hasn't happened. Moreover, the labor market remains strong, private consumption is stable, and spending per hour worked is growing.

Third, if the U.S. economy were in free fall, why have the stock markets in China, Europe, Mexico, and even Canada risen? That does not fit the narrative of an imminent global crisis.

My conclusion is that we have been hammered with the idea of a recession without the data really supporting it. Yes, the S&P 500 has fallen by 10%, which historically corresponds to a 50% probability of recession, but if we analyze the actual data, the probability is much lower, perhaps between 15% and 25%.

The worst is already priced into the market, and all that is left is to bounce back. However, a clear bottom has not yet formed. I leave you with this reflection for each of you to draw your own conclusions.

The floor is close, but it hasn't arrived yet

The market seems to be in a deep correction phase, rather than a structural collapse. The overselling is evident, fear is extreme, and the sentiment indicators reflect overflowing pessimism. However, the final capitulation has not yet occurred.

When it comes, we will likely see a violent move in the opposite direction. Until then, the key is to stay alert and observe the signs of exhaustion in the decline. History has shown that moments of greatest pessimism are often the best buying opportunities. The challenge is to identify the precise moment when the tide turns.

The Golden Age of Digital Assets: What's Happening with Gold and Cryptocurrencies?

Trump's team has called the future of digital assets the "Golden Age," and this might not just be a play on words. Behind this statement are key movements in the global financial system, especially in the relationship between gold and cryptocurrencies like XRP.

The price of gold is reaching all-time highs. Demand for physical bullion has skyrocketed, both by investors and central banks.

The Bank of England, which holds gold from several countries, is experiencing delays of up to 6 weeks in deliveries.

This indicates that people no longer trust the fractional reserve system of gold, where the same bullion is sold multiple times without real physical allocation.

Starting in July 2025, Basel III comes into force, a regulation that requires that each bullion sold has real physical backing.

That same month, the US Federal Reserve will implement the ISO 20022 standard, where XRP plays an important role in cross-border payments.

Ripple (the company behind XRP) is part of ISDA, the body that regulates the gold market.

This suggests that blockchain technology could be key to ensuring the transparency and traceability of gold in the future.

There is speculation that Trump could audit the US gold reserves and consider using it to restructure debt.

If gold revalues, its current market of 19 trillion dollars could grow exponentially.

Some believe that digital assets such as XRP could be used to digitize and make gold trading more efficient.

In short, we are seeing a profound change in the financial system:
✅ Demand for physical gold is growing.
✅ New regulations are being prepared to prevent fraud in the gold market.
✅ XRP and other ISO 20022-compliant cryptos could play a key role in the digitalization of physical assets.

Upon analyzing the weekly chart of Bitcoin, I observe that, after reaching an all-time high of $109,356 on January 20, 2025, the price has experienced a correction, currently situated around $95,838.

This recent drop is partly attributed to the imposition of tariffs by the United States on products from Canada, Mexico, and China, which has raised inflationary concerns and affected assets like Bitcoin.

From a technical perspective, it is crucial to monitor the support level at $92,000. A sustained break below this point could lead the price towards the next significant support around $87,000. Conversely, if the price remains above $92,000 and surpasses the resistance at $106,000, we could anticipate a resumption of the upward trend.

please sell. 👍👍👍

Let's imagine the scenario: 2025 begins with a drastic change in the White House. Donald Trump returns to the presidency, and Congress, dominated by Republicans, is ready to implement policies that could redefine the relationships of the United States with China. The world watches, and the key question is: how will the relationship between these two superpowers evolve?

China and the United States have navigated turbulent waters in recent years: trade tensions, the Taiwan dilemma, COVID-19, and a growing technological rivalry. Under Trump, we are likely to see an even more confrontational stance. Promises of tariffs of 60% to 200% on Chinese products point to an economic hardening that could revitalize trade tensions. But this time, with a strategic twist: Trump insists that he does not seek a trade war, but "economic justice."

Congress, in turn, could take even more drastic measures. The Economic and Security Review Commission has suggested ending normal trade relations with China, which would put Beijing under annual scrutiny. This could profoundly impact global trade.

But not everything is confrontation. There are areas where the two powers could collaborate. In combating fentanyl trafficking, both countries have clear incentives. Also in food security and potentially in agricultural technology. However, issues like climate change face significant setbacks, with Trump moving away from the Paris Agreement once again.

The possible appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State adds another nuance. His firm position against communism could be a double-edged sword: a clear message to Beijing, but also an obstacle to dialogue.

In this context, the question is not only what the United States will do, but how China will respond. Its willingness to engage in dialogue suggests that it will seek to resist, adapt, and perhaps even capitalize on any strategic misstep from Washington.