Market reactions to wars are often immediate and sharp.
Historical trends can guide expectations; the S&P 500 dropped 11.5% in three months after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Bitcoin, closely correlated with the S&P 500, may show similar price movement in response to the Israel-Iran conflict.
After the latest Middle East tensions, the S&P 500 fell 1%, while oil prices jumped 5%, indicating concerns about a potential war.
According to the Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 typically drops 2% when a major conflict begins, with an average total decline of 8.2%.
Other factors, such as economic conditions, influence returns during conflicts.The key factor is whether the conflict occurs during a recession. In non-recession years, the S&P 500 averages a 9.5% return over 12 months, but during a recession, it declines by 11.5%.
A notable example is the 9/11 attack in 2002 when the S&P 500 fell 18% due to an existing recession.
It remains uncertain whether a Fed stimulus will help avoid a US recession this year.
Last week, U.S. bitcoin ETFs had a combined net buying volume of 16,774 BTC, surpassing the typical monthly supply of newly mined bitcoin (13,500 BTC). This was primarily driven by a policy shift from the Peopleâs Bank of China.
One of the most widely anticipated forecasts is that the cryptocurrency market capitalization will reach $8 trillion by 2025. As of today, the market cap stands at $2.25 trillion. If this prediction proves accurate, it would represent a growth of more than 250% in just a year.
the US dollar index DXY is poised for a significant move, but immediate expectations remain muted. #BTCâ and #DXY often shows an inverse corrolation.đ The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently in a state of indecision, with the CME Fedwatch tool indicating nearly equal chances for either a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut in November. This uncertainty is keeping the DXY within a tight trading range Key Levels:
Resistance Levels:
Upper September range: 101.90
Potential target: 103.18
55-day SMA: 102.30
100-day SMA: 103.52
200-day SMA: 103.75
Major round level: 104.00
Support Levels:
Initial support: 100.22 (September 18 low)
If breached, next support at 99.58 (July 14 low).
Further decline could lead to early 2023 levels around 97.73.
US PCE inflation drops to 2.2%, lower than the expected 2.3%, down from 2.5% the previous month.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 bps, sparking upward momentum in Bitcoin and crypto markets.
Matrixport and QCP Capital predict a Bitcoin price rally in Q4, with potential to hit $100K.
US dollar index (DXY) turns volatile, while US Treasury yield drops to 3.77%.
MicroStrategy increase BTC holdings
BTC 56% increase in trading volume in the last 24 hours.
China's late stimulus push launch to help revive ĂŸhe conomy
Historically, Bitcoin gains an average of 40% from October to March, and experts expect a similar trend.
Data shows liquidity support for btc until 68k, with a breakout increasing chances of reaching new ATH, if not, technically a minor correction to 60k 62k levels ould expected before rally begins #Dyor2024 #MarketDownturn