Steven_Research

Thank you @Binance Square Official and the title independent Researcher 2025

Thank you to the bosses @CZ @Yi He @Richard Teng

Thank you to the bosses @Daniel Zou (DZ) 🔶 and Francis, and @Nyan 7

It has been a memorable year 2025 with many emotions related to crypto and Binance!

Made many new friends, effective investments, gained more insights into the industry, and found reliable partners and colleagues!

Let's look forward to 2026 with new forecasts! We will be even more dynamic! Very bullish on Binance! 😍

Happy new year 2026!

NEARLY $9.5B IN STABLECOINS WITHDRAWN FROM THE MARKET IN JUST 1 MONTH

From May 8 to June 28, 2026, the total supply of major stablecoins has fallen by about $9.45B, with most of it coming from $USDT and $USDC . In just the most recent week alone, the market recorded an additional net outflow of roughly $2.12B.

- Until May 2026, the amount of stablecoins in the market continued to rise and reached a peak of $322B, but right after that, net stablecoin outflows have reached a notable level

1. How is Net Outflow measured?

*Stablecoin capital flows are often tracked through the minting and burning activities of issuers such as Tether and Circle.

- When the issuer mints (issues) more stablecoins => circulating supply increases => new money is flowing into the market.

- When the issuer redeems and burns stablecoins => circulating supply decreases => investors exchange stablecoins for fiat currency, resulting in net outflow.

=> Therefore, changes in Circulating Supply generally reflect fairly closely whether capital is moving into or out of the crypto market.

2. Nearly $9.5B left the market in under 2 months

- Total net outflow from May 8 to June 28, 2026, amounted to about $9.445B.

- The most recent week alone saw approximately $2.119B continuing to be withdrawn from the market.

- Most of the stablecoins withdrawn came from USDT and USDC.

=> This is a fairly significant drop over a short period, suggesting that overall market liquidity is trending toward contraction after a strong start-of-year growth phase.

- What do you all think? Is this the beginning of a prolonged capital withdrawal like in 2022, or is it temporary and likely to return soon?

JAPANESE CORPORATE PENSION FUND PLANS TO ALLOCATE 1% TO CRYPTO STARTING IN 2026

This news was reported by Nikkei (the most reputable financial newspaper in Japan) around mid-June 2026.

- National Business Corporate Pension Fund (also known as Nationwide Business Corporate Pension Fund or National Commercial Enterprise Pension Fund).

- Fund based in Okayama City, Japan. Asset size: Approximately 21.3 billion yen (equivalent to ~136 million USD). Currently serving about 1,200 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and over 20,000 members.

=> This is not the large national pension fund but rather a corporate pension fund aimed at SMEs.

- According to the plan, it will officially roll out at the beginning of the fiscal year 2026 (April 2026), with the fund earmarking 1% of its assets, equivalent to about 1.36 million USD, to invest in the crypto market.

=> Instead of directly buying and holding Bitcoin $BTC , the fund has opted for a safer, more institutional approach: indirectly investing through a passive multi-crypto fund managed by a major hedge fund.

*Their core goal is to diversify and manage currency risk. Specifically, the fund plans to reduce its holdings in Japanese Yen from 80% to 70%. The remaining 10% will be evenly allocated to currencies of developed countries, emerging markets, gold, and crypto.

=> This move comes at a time of "perfect timing, advantageous conditions" as the regulatory landscape in Japan is making significant strides. Notably, on June 11, 2026, the country officially transitioned cryptocurrency from the Payment Services Act to the Securities and Financial Instruments Act.

Week 4

Positions aren't built in a day; it's a process.

It starts with planning your portfolio, allocating each basket appropriately, and setting limits for each asset class. Placing buy/sell orders is just the final step in a strategy that has been laid out beforehand—I've been doing this for many years now.

Just like at the end of last year when I turned down my friends' suggestions to invest in real estate, I'm buying in now, and the same goes for $BTC. I'm also picking up shares in some small companies.

One interesting fact is that Elon Musk's personal assets are nearly on par with the market cap of $BTC. So, is Elon’s wealth just that massive, or is Bitcoin just small?

SPACEX IPO TIME HAS COME - JOIN ON BINANCE

SpaceX is entering the final hours before officially listing on Nasdaq.

*Estimated Timeline:

- 11/06/2026: Underwriters finalize the book-building process and lock in the official IPO price.

- Evening of 11/06 or early morning of 12/06 (Vietnam time): SpaceX announces the final IPO price.

- 12/06/2026: SPCX shares officially trade on Nasdaq.

=> This is expected to be the largest IPO in history with a valuation of around $1.8 trillion and nearly $75 billion raised.

WHEN CAN CRYPTO INVESTORS PARTICIPATE?

1. Binance has two different products:

*SPCXUSDT Perpetual Futures have been trading prior to the IPO. This allows traders to speculate on SpaceX's valuation before the shares officially hit the market.

- You can use leverage like regular futures contracts.

*Binance Stocks ( $SPCX )

- Trading opens on 12/06/2026. Allows you to buy SpaceX shares in the form of tokenized stock. Supports whole-share limit orders.

2. Binance Wallet – $SPCXx Campaign

*This is the most sought-after subscription program.

- Users sign up using USDC.

- Reference price is around $135.

- After the registration ends, the system allocates tokenized securities proportionally.

=> If the registration exceeds the supply, investors will only receive a portion of the allocation.

=> This is a way for retail to get close to SpaceX, similar to an IPO round, through the Binance ecosystem.

Who got hacked? Not me!
🫡

The project $H uses a multisig wallet but lets one person hold multiple private keys within the same multisig.

*You guys know that multisig wallets need multiple signatures to execute transactions.

- Bridge wallet on Ethereum: 3-of-6 multisig (needs 3 out of 6 keys to sign).

- Wallet on BNB Chain: 3-of-5 multisig (needs 3 out of 5 keys to sign).

=> The issue is that this one person has to hold at least 3 out of 6 and 3 out of 5 keys to successfully sign.

=> And guess what? This very person got their machine hacked (the reason is still unclear). As a result, the hacker drained over 17 wallets related to holding, bridging, staking, etc.

=> Then they sold off H tokens for ETH/BNB on DEX. Minted an additional 100 million new H tokens on BNB Chain (valued at ~11 million USD) and sold them immediately to increase the sell pressure. Over 19 million USD got hacked.

*The irony here is that Humanity is a project focused on ZK authentication security using user identity (scanning palm prints, proving you are real without exposing data).

- In the end, they couldn't even secure their project wallet? They violated security principles by letting one person hold all the keys, while failing to implement any multi-layered security tech despite their own project's focus on security! 💀

Analysis of USDT.D on the weekly chart (W)

1. Market Structure

- The higher high, higher low candlestick structure indicates a rather bearish market.
- USDT.D has surged to the 9.2% zone -> a significant influx of defensive capital into stablecoins.
- The W chart shows that USDT.D has broken through the 8.5% - 8.8% zone where it faced multiple rejections.

2. Current Signals on W

The scenario that the market is paying the most attention to is:
- USDT.D forming a double top with support at 7%

- If it breaks the mid-term support around 7%, the likelihood of capital flowing back into crypto will increase significantly.

USDT.D Levels
Meaning
*USDT > 9.5% -> Very bearish for altcoins
*USDT < 7% -> ALT SEASON
* The daily chart indicates that USDT.D has created a reversal candlestick pair, which could be one of the conditions for USDT.D to reverse, leading the market to expect an ALT SEASON.

Week 3

This time the price is $BTC under $60K so I'm buying 2u as per the plan set at the start of the year, fam.

BTC is dipping alongside stocks due to strong job data => Bond yields are up => FED is looking to raise interest rates.

With US stocks, it might just be a phase of volatility for now, but with BTC, we still don't know what the bottom for this season will be. A lot of folks are saying 5x, 4x, 3x,…

We've never accurately called the bottom and top with the bookies, you guys. Our job is to buy at a reasonable price, hold for a few years, and cash out with some gains, just don't try to outsmart the bookies 💪

SO AFTER 3 YEARS WE SEE $SOL BACK UNDER $70

For the first time since 2023, we’re seeing SOL drop back to the 6x range, meanwhile, Forward Industries just deposited 455.784 SOL (equivalent to ~31.87 million USD) onto CB Prime.

- Last year, Forward Industries (NASDAQ: FWDI) – a company backed by Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital, Jump Crypto – forked out ~1.59 billion USD to acquire 6.83 million $SOL at an average price of 232.08 USD.

- Currently, their holdings are valued at ~458.6 million USD, and they're sitting on an unrealized loss of nearly 1.13 billion USD.

- Forward Industries positions itself as the “largest Solana treasury company in the world,” focusing on accumulating SOL, staking, yield generation through DeFi, and validators to boost SOL-per-share for shareholders, similar to their strategy with BTC and Bitmine with ETH.

=> Despite heavy paper losses, they’re sticking to their long-term strategy (having accumulated over 6.97 million SOL by early 2026).

=> They previously made even bigger deposits (for example: ~1.4 million SOL worth ~200 million USD in November 2025, or 1.88 million SOL ~260 million USD). There’s a good chance they’re staking, lending, or rebalancing, not necessarily dumping?

- Currently, the realized price on-chain for SOL is around ~120$, while the market price is only 65$.

- So, what do you guys think, is SOL already dipped at this price? Can we see SOL go down to 4x or even 3x or lower?

WHERE ARE CRYPTO EXCHANGES LISTING US STOCKS HEADING?

We can totally see that the current trend is that US AI stocks are attracting capital flows better than crypto, and over there, there are also more waves to ride. In the coming months, the IPO wave of SpaceX and OpenAI... is really drawing in investors.

- Major exchanges definitely can't ignore this trend, and it aligns with the interests of investors who are eager to dive into US stocks.

=> So, on one hand, stocks are more in the wave, and on the other, many people want to trade stocks. Naturally, when stocks are listed on exchanges, Altcoins will get less attention and become harder to pick.

- But there’s another group—investors from countries outside the US who can’t buy US stocks. Sure, they can still purchase through institutions, but they don’t directly own them.

=> At this point, they will onboard onto crypto exchanges like Binance... to trade or hold US stocks, because of official ownership, dividends, etc. There will be a portion of investors interested in this.

- Initially, they join the exchange to invest in US stocks, and then they become familiar with CEXs, so when crypto has a wave, switching over to invest in crypto becomes a straightforward move.

=> Over the long term, this will still help crypto expand. Of course, once the two markets mix, the interaction between them becomes very complex, but the flow of money will always rotate according to investors' attention. So whenever crypto has a wave, the capital flow from stocks will be even larger!

- What do you all think?

Trusting folks too much, huh? 😂

Just the other day, Arthur was shilling $HYPE at 150, $NEAR at 20x leverage, $ZEC at 5x leverage.

Today, he already took profits 🤡

Bitcoin is still on its own cycle

Every season we hear: " $BTC has grown and doesn't follow cycles anymore" or "The cycle has been broken"

And yet, the cycle keeps repeating. Today, Nasdaq hits a new high, S&P500 breaks records, while $BTC just keeps dropping

- Demand for Bitcoin has significantly decreased in the market, with capital continuously flowing out, and Bitcoin is falling without any reason at all

- However, these phases are getting closer to the ideal accumulation point for Bitcoin for the new cycle. When people start asking "What’s the value of Bitcoin?" or "Is it going back below $20K?"...

- In one way or another, we still see the same mindset repeating, and the cycle also repeats itself in different ways

- I'm getting ready to start accumulating $BTC weekly, folks