Steven_Research

Thank you @Binance Square Official and the title independent Researcher 2025

Thank you to the bosses @CZ @Yi He @Richard Teng

Thank you to the bosses @Daniel Zou (DZ) 🔶 and Francis, and @Nyan 7

It has been a memorable year 2025 with many emotions related to crypto and Binance!

Made many new friends, effective investments, gained more insights into the industry, and found reliable partners and colleagues!

Let's look forward to 2026 with new forecasts! We will be even more dynamic! Very bullish on Binance! 😍

Happy new year 2026!

Yesterday, the Defi DriftProtocol protocol on Solana was hacked

- Estimated damage around 285 million USD from the JLP, USDC, SOL vaults...

- TVL decreased from 309 million to approximately 41 million USD.

- The hacker created a fake token CarbonVote ($CVT) using low liquidity on Raydium to manipulate the oracle, combined with compromising the admin key to bypass safeguards and withdraw real assets in just about 12 minutes.

- The hacker's wallet swapped to USDC, bridged to ETH, purchased $ETH

- Drift confirmed being attacked, temporarily halted all deposits/withdrawals. Currently coordinating with security firms, bridges, and exchanges to trace.

- Token $DRIFT decreased by 17–40%, SOL is under pressure. This is the largest DeFi hack of 2026 and the second largest on Solana ever.

TOKEN $STO INCREASES X3 AFTER A FEW DAYS - REASONS FROM THE WHALES?

The price of token $STO (from the StakeStone project - liquid staking protocol and omnichain liquidity) has surged in the past 24 hours.

- The price jumped from around $0.11 to $0.25-$0.26, an increase of 80-136% in just one day, and over 220% in the last 7 days (x3 times)

- StakeStone is currently a top trending liquid staking protocol, with a background partnership with the $USD1 stablecoin (from World Liberty Finance) and plans to expand omnichain.

- However, the direct trigger today is the on-chain whale accumulation without any major news.

- A newly created wallet (0x5e2E...) has withdrawn 25.5 million $STO (approximately $4.85 million USD) from Binance in the past 20 hours.

=> This accounts for 11.32% of the circulating supply. In total, there were 28 large transactions (>10 million tokens) in just one day, pushing the price up from a low level.

- The trading volume for spot + futures increased 4–9 times (at one point reaching $194 million in 24h, a 650% increase compared to the previous day)

*Additionally, the top 10 holders control 98.9% of the supply, with just 3 addresses holding 88% of the circulating tokens

- This is a pump driven by whales + volume, not due to any new fundamental news; traders of this token need to be cautious about the high volatility and manipulation levels.

Google's new research indicates that Bitcoin's Taproot could make quantum attacks easier

Researchers from Google Quantum AI have published new findings showing that breaking elliptic curve encryption (ECDLP-256 on secp256k1 – the foundation of Bitcoin and Ethereum) may require significantly fewer quantum resources than previously estimated (about 20 times less). Specifically

Quantum criminals could track pending transactions (mempool), calculate the private key from the exposed public key in just about 9 minutes, and steal coins before the block is confirmed (success probability ~41% with Bitcoin due to the average block time of 10 minutes). Ethereum is at less risk thanks to faster confirmations.

=> Approximately 6.9 million $BTC (nearly 1/3 of the total supply) are at risk, including ~1.7 million BTC from early days and Address reuse + Taproot usage

- Google has set 2029 as the target for migrating their own post-quantum cryptography (PQC)

- The threat from quantum computers is not immediate, but it will be the development target for quantum-resistant protocols, and users need to pay attention, with the time frame from now until 2029.

The interesting thing about those cycles is witnessing the arrival and departure of generations of investors $BTC

Their movement creates a transformation in the underlying price structure, LTHs RP and STHs RP

The price trends and behaviors of these layers of investors have a reciprocal relationship, being both opposed yet complementary to each other

Through each cycle, they converge and diverge based on each price stage and the behaviors of the layers of investors

Patience is the key

After last night's sweeping, more than 300 million leveraged orders were liquidated.

The market collapsed in a short time – $ETH dropped below $1,940 and $BTC dropped below $65,000, liquidating Machi once again.

Moody's Analytics raises the probability of an economic recession in the US over the next 12 months to 48.6% (the highest since the 2020 pandemic).

Forecast model: Based on machine learning, previously at around ~49%. Mark Zandi (Chief Economist) commented: “The risk of recession is at an uncomfortably high level and is still rising,” “the recession avoidance path is getting narrower.”

*Main reasons:

- Weak labor market: The US lost 92,000 jobs in February 2026 (outside of healthcare, more than 500,000 jobs lost in the past year).

- Slow growth: GDP in Q4 2025 is only 0.7%.

- Middle East conflict drives oil prices up sharply (Brent ~97 USD/barrel, previously reaching 115 USD).

*Comparison with other entities on Wall Street:

- Goldman Sachs: 30%

- Wilmington Trust: 45%

- EY Parthenon: 40%

- NerdWallet survey: 65% of Americans forecast a recession in the next 12 months.

Approximately 12.5% of crypto protocols that once did over $10M in monthly fees and launched a token are dead (no current activity). In contrast, only 8.3% of those with no token are dead

Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession in the next 12 months to 30% (up 5 percentage points from the previous level of 25%)

1. The main reasons Goldman Sachs cites:

- Oil and gas prices have surged (energy price shock) due to the prolonged Middle Eastern conflict (U.S. - Iran), disrupting energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

- Financial conditions are tightening.

- The supportive effect of President Trump's major tax law (passed last summer) is gradually diminishing.

2. Other economic forecasts that Goldman Sachs updated at the same time: The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.6% by the end of 2026.

- U.S. GDP growth: still below trend in the second half of 2026, with an annual growth rate forecast of only 1.25%-1.75%.

- The Fed is still expected to cut interest rates in September and December 2026.

=> Global impact: higher energy prices will push inflation up and reduce global GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage points (potentially doubling or tripling in the worst-case scenario).

3. Some context

- Previously (around 12/3/2026), Goldman Sachs raised the probability from 20% to 25% due to weak February job reports (loss of 92,000 jobs) and rising oil prices due to the Iran war.

- Currently, the 30% level falls within Wall Street's consensus (25-35%). This is not a certain recession forecast (the baseline probability remains at 70% of avoiding it), but it indicates that the risk of a downturn is clearly increasing.

the stock $CRCL (Circle Internet Group - issuer of USDC) fell sharply yesterday by ~18-19% due to information from the latest draft / leaked text of the CLARITY Act.

The latest draft of the CLARITY Act (currently being negotiated in the US Senate) completely prohibits passive yield/rewards on stablecoin balances (not allowing interest/bonuses just for holding USDC). Only activity-based rewards are permitted (related to transactions, transfers, using the platform).

WILL THE BALANCER PROTOCOL STOP OPERATING?

Fernando Martinelli – the co-founder of the Balancer protocol – has officially announced the decision to gradually wind down the operations of Balancer Labs.

- Once one of the leading Defi protocols, it now faces cessation of operations due to lingering legal risks following the major hack of 128 million USD that occurred in November 2025. Specifically:

1. Balancer Labs (the development company) will gradually wind down.

- The main reason is the prolonged legal risks stemming from the major hack in November 2025 (losing over 128 million USD), and the company can no longer earn enough money to sustain itself.

- The Balancer protocol will still operate but will transition to a DAO + Foundation model (fully managed by the community).

2. Major changes soon to be voted on (BIP)

- Halting the issuance of new BAL (stopping dilution).

- All transaction fees will be redirected to the DAO treasury (increasing income for the community).

- Buy back and burn $BAL to support the price.

- Reduce the team size, significantly cutting costs (only 12 people remaining, budget reduced by 34%).

=> The DAO will save money, runway extended ~9 years, the protocol will focus on good products (reCLAMM, stable pools...).

3. Summary

- Currently, the Balancer protocol is still operational with a total TVL of approximately 158 million USD, generating over 1 million USD in transaction fees annually.

- The Balancer protocol will not cease operations or shut down completely. Instead, it will shift to a new management model controlled by the community through DAO + Foundation and an independent service provider.

- What are your thoughts? Has Balancer reached its "end" yet?

Summary of the Resolv exploit incident this morning (03/22/2026):

- Incident: Hacker only deposited ~100-200k $USDC but exploited a minting vulnerability (signer role) in the contract, illegally minting ~80 million $USR unbacked (without backing assets).

- Consequences: Strong dump causing serious depeg (USR dropped ~74%, reaching ~0.25 USD). Hacker withdrew ~23-25M USD (mainly $ETH). The token $RESOLV also dumped.

- Team's response: Resolv Labs paused the entire protocol immediately, the collateral pool remains intact at 100% (not drained). Currently investigating, the team advises everyone to avoid trading/interacting with USR temporarily.

Hanoi identifies key economic sectors from Blockchain, digital assets, cryptocurrency 🇻🇳

According to the newly issued plan for technological innovation in the key economic sectors of Hanoi by 2035 on March 16, Hanoi identifies the digital technology industry as one of the three key economic sectors.

Among them, the core technologies that can create breakthroughs for key economic sectors include Blockchain technology, and products: Digital assets, digital currency, cryptocurrency; Blockchain network infrastructure; Source tracing systems.

Along with Blockchain, there are other core technologies such as: Artificial intelligence, digital twins, virtual/augmented reality; Cloud computing technology, quantum, big data; Robotics and automation technology; Aerospace technology.

Source: Tien Phong Newspaper

AN OVERVIEW OF TRADFI IN CRYPTO - A RARE SPOTLIGHT OF THE MARKET

According to CoinMarketCap (as of March 16, 2026), Binance leads the market with perpetual trading volumes of gold and silver in 24 hours of 851 million USD and 988 million USD respectively - nearly 15 times and 5.2 times higher than the next crypto platform.

=> Gold and silver dominate, reflecting strong demand from TradFi traders using the crypto platform to access the market 24/7 even when traditional markets are closed.

*The accumulated trading volume has exceeded 153 billion USD with more than 114 million orders.

- Investors can access precious metals (gold, silver, copper, palladium, platinum) and major stocks ($AMZN , COIN, HOOD, INTC, $MSTR , $PLTR , TSLA) => all can be traded 24/7 on a single platform.

*Tokenized Stocks: The market for tokenized stocks has recently surpassed 1 billion USD, with Ondo and xStocks leading this explosive growth (as of March 2026), with potential projected to exceed 1 trillion USD as organizations adopt it more widely in the future.

THE DEFI DATA IS CLEARLY DECLINING

It can be seen that the market is undergoing a strong "cleansing" phase after the peak in October 2025

- The crypto lending market is shrinking. Total deposits have decreased from 125 billion USD to 79.6 billion USD, equivalent to a decrease of 36%.

1. The sharp decline in the Lending sector

*This decline is mainly concentrated in 5 major protocols, accounting for up to 40 billion USD of the total 45 billion USD lost:

- Aave: The steepest decline with 27.6 billion USD (from ~75 billion to ~47.4 billion USD).

- Spark: A decrease of 5.4 billion USD (from ~11 billion to ~5.6 billion USD).

- Euler: A decrease of 2.6 billion USD (from ~4 billion to ~1.4 billion USD).

- Fluid: A decrease of 2.4 billion USD (from ~3.5 billion to ~1.1 billion USD).

- Compound: A decrease of 2.0 billion USD (from ~4.5 billion to ~2.5 billion USD).

- Other protocols: A total decrease of about 5.4 billion USD.

2. Comparison of DeFi indicators (October 2025 vs. March 2026)

- Total TVL of the entire DeFi industry: Decreased from 171 billion USD to 96 billion USD (a decrease of 44%).

- Total Lending deposits: Decreased from 125 billion USD to 79.6 billion USD (a decrease of 36%).

- Market capitalization of Stablecoins: Slightly increased from 314 billion USD to 316 billion USD (an increase of 0.6%).

- Monthly DEX trading volume: Sharply decreased from 613 billion USD to about 207 billion USD (a decrease of 66%).

3. Important additional information

- TVL Restaking: Decreased from about 24 billion USD at the beginning of 2025 to 11.8 billion USD currently.

- EigenLayer: Currently holds only about 9 billion USD in TVL.

- TVL Liquid Staking: Decreased by 50% from 80 billion USD to about ~40 billion USD currently.

- Ethereum's market share: Still maintains a leading position, accounting for 50-60% of the total TVL of the entire ecosystem.

A TRADER LOST NEARLY 50 MILLION USD DUE TO SLIPPAGE

A user attempted to swap 50 million $USDT for $AAVE on Cowswap but encountered extremely high slippage (around 99.9%), resulting in receiving only a small amount of AAVE, estimated to be worth only about 36,200 USD

=> This person lost nearly all of their 50M$ immediately

- This has been compared to "losing 50M in an instant" and is believed to be due to MEV (Miner Extractable Value) or bots taking advantage.

- Aave's founder, Stani Kulechov, confirmed that the interface had warned of slippage and requested further confirmation, but the trader still proceeded with the transaction.

=> Aave has committed to refunding approximately 600,000 USD in transaction fees to the affected users, considering this a goodwill gesture even though slippage is a normal market risk.

=> Stani Kulechov emphasized that the system functioned correctly by providing a warning, and does not consider this a technical fault of the protocol, but rather a user negligence.