Currently, ADA price fluctuates around $0.92, trading within the range of $0.87 - $1.00. Last week's sideways movement indicates market stagnation, with weak recovery and no breakthrough signals contributing to a bearish sentiment.
If the bearish trend continues, ADA may oscillate at lower levels, potentially dropping to $0.77 after falling below $0.87, significantly increasing investor risk.
However, if the market warms up and confidence rebounds, ADA is expected to break through $1.00, shattering the bearish pattern and possibly triggering a rebound, although this requires strong buying support and a comprehensive market recovery.
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Currently, entering COW seems rather blind, more based on faith rather than rational judgment. A more prudent strategy is to wait for the COW price to stabilize at the top, and pay attention to whether a divergence occurs. If a divergence happens, consider shorting at the three sell points.
When operating, one should focus on the trend line and the rebound situation near the support level around 0.905. Once an effective rebound occurs, one may consider entering, but if the price breaks below the trend line, one should decisively exit.
As for the specific timing of when divergence will occur, when the three sell points will arise, and when to short, I will provide clear signals after further observation and confirmation. For now, it is advisable to keep watching and let the market develop further in order to make more accurate decisions.
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Honestly, in my watchlist (excluding BTC and ETH), Ordi's performance is quite peculiar. Whenever the market is bullish, its increase often ranks among the bottom, sometimes even last or second to last; yet, when faced with a general market decline, it suddenly transforms into a leading bear.
To be frank, as a short-term trader, I personally do not recommend getting involved with Ordi. However, if you are a long-term investor with a plan to hold for several years, then it might be worth considering.
That said, there is a common cognitive bias: many people initially believe they have enough patience and resolve to hold long-term, appearing resolute and confident. But the reality is that after just two days of decline, they start to feel anxious; or when they see Ordi drop while other projects rise, their psychological defenses collapse, unable to withstand the pressure from such price fluctuations.
Ultimately, Ordi may essentially be a quality project, but it demands a lot from investors and is very selective, not everyone can handle it.
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12.25 Wednesday Market Strategy Analysis Yesterday, the daytime market overall presented a range-bound fluctuation pattern, while in the evening, following the opening of the US stock market, the market surged strongly, reaching a peak of 99,500 points, and then began to retract after the market closed at 2 AM.
Given that today is Christmas, the trading activity of the main players in the US stock market is expected to decline, and the overall market will likely remain volatile. In this situation, our operational strategy can focus on the intraday low of 97,000 to the high of 99,500, adopting a strategy of selling high and buying low.
Specifically, for Bitcoin, the support level is in the range of 96,500 - 97,000, while the resistance level is in the range of 99,500 - 100,000; for Ethereum, the support level is roughly in the area of 3,420 - 3,450, and the resistance level is about 3,540 - 3,600. Investors should closely monitor these key points, flexibly adjust trading strategies to respond to potential market changes, seize potential trading opportunities, and pay attention to controlling risks to avoid unnecessary losses due to market fluctuations.
On this Christmas morning, I would like to extend my sincere greetings to everyone. I hope you can fully enjoy this wonderful Christmas time. Wishing you all a Merry Christmas 🎄!
Looking back at Christmas Eve, the price of Bitcoin first surged from around 94035 to approximately 98716, and then retraced to 97250. Currently, its price fluctuates around 98500. Given that the U.S. stock market is closed, the overall market is expected to mainly consolidate sideways. Please pay close attention to the key levels of 92400, 93000, 94850, and 97250. Based on this situation, today’s trading suggestion is to go long at lower levels.
Bitcoin: If it retraces to around 96500 - 96900, you can go long, targeting around 100000.
Ethereum: If it retraces to around 3370 - 3400, you can go long, targeting around 3600.
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Currently in the resistance zone range after the double bottom pattern, in the absence of an overall trend reversal, it is highly likely to continue maintaining a box oscillation pattern. If it can break through 95000 and achieve a trend breakout, then opportunities for entry can be sought in the pullback range.
If the bottom can be lifted, there is a possibility of a short-term rise, but one must remain vigilant and respond appropriately to potential adjustments that may occur due to the resistance zone.
Since the trend reversal has not yet arrived, further declines cannot be ruled out. When long positions achieve profit targets, timely profit-taking should be done to accumulate gains.
Dec 24 swing trading layout:
Long entry suggestion: Enter long with a light position at 92600, and if it pulls back to the 91000 range, enter long directly, with target prices of 95000 - 96000.
Short entry suggestion: Enter short with a light position in the 95500 - 96000 range, with target prices of 94000 - 92600.
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From the current state of the squirrel market, its performance is good. After a stable pullback, it has started a rally process, and the accumulated upward momentum is quite strong. Previously, Lao Te suggested that the brothers buy in the vicinity of 0.58, with a target set in the range of 0.95 to 1. Given the current trend, the possibility of achieving Lao Te's set target is very high. Brothers holding spot positions can continue to hold; once Bitcoin starts to rally, it will be an opportunity for the squirrel to break through again.
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From the midday market analysis, although prices have rebounded after hitting the bottom, the overall trend still remains in a volatile state. It is expected that there will be little chance of a clear one-sided market during the day, and range trading would be more appropriate.
Observing the 4-hour candlestick chart, a large bearish candle first broke below the lower boundary, followed by a rapid rise with a large bullish candle. The current coin price is hovering between the lower and middle boundaries. In the 1-hour chart, after a series of bearish candles, a four-consecutive-bullish trend has emerged, and it has now stabilized above the middle boundary. Moreover, the KDJ indicator in both the 4-hour and 1-hour charts has all three lines turning upward, showing a bullish trend, and there is expected to be further upward space in the short term.
Based on this, the morning trading suggestion is to focus on going long at lower prices, with some short positions as a supplement.
For Bitcoin, one could go long in the 93500 - 94000 range, targeting around 96000 - 97000. If the upward trend does not continue, one could switch to a short position;
For Ethereum, one could consider going long around 3280 - 3320, targeting between 3450 - 3500.
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Musk and Trump: Cracks in Collaboration, the Fate of 'DOGE' Uncertain
In the coming year, the dynamic between Musk and Trump has become the focus of public attention. Reports suggest that the two are about to part ways, and this news has stirred a wave of speculation in the public arena. Even before Trump has returned to the White House, rumors of discord have emerged, as Musk's influence continues to expand, creating a sense of crisis for Trump.
Looking back, when the two founded the 'Department of Government Efficiency' (provisionally named 'DOGE'), they were filled with ambition. At the Phoenix Conference, Trump, dressed in a red tie against a backdrop of brilliant fireworks, proclaimed to the audience: 'Musk cannot become president because he was not born in the United States.' His words were full of jealousy.
However, times have changed, and what was once collaboration has now become a 'ticking time bomb.' Last week, Musk helped Congress defeat an emergency spending bill, offending both parties. His unpredictable style and increasing influence in politics have all led to Trump's dissatisfaction. Rumors suggest that Trump believes Musk seeks the spotlight and creates trouble.
Musk is focused on 'DOGE' affairs and even intends to cut the budgets of the IRS and the Federal Reserve, which undoubtedly further widens the rift between the two. Trump initially chose him and Vivek to handle related matters in hopes of improving efficiency, but Musk's rising fame has overshadowed Trump's own.
The pressing question now is, if Musk chooses to leave, where will 'DOGE' go? It has yet to receive formal recognition from Congress, and its nature resembles more of a high-level advisory group rather than an official department, which is indeed worrisome.
Every cycle will have extremely severe harvesting events, which are usually triggered by super large projects due to their wide audience and numerous followers.
Projects that survive two or more cycles are worth paying attention to, as abnormal fluctuations must have hidden reasons.
CX coin has movements in each round, and several pyramid scheme coins listed on Binance have performed brilliantly for two consecutive rounds, with contract trends fluctuating greatly, making retail investors both love and hate them.
For public chain projects, if the ecosystem is difficult to build in the early stages of product launch, then there is little chance of improvement, and there is absolutely no possibility of a comeback.
DeFi projects are like evergreen trees, with opportunities for revitalization.
There is no need to fear a Ponzi scheme that is on the rise; if planning to buy the dip when it falls, there is no need to hesitate now, and you can invest 20% first.
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On December 27, Bitcoin will face the largest options expiration in its history, with options contracts worth $19.8 billion expiring, potentially causing significant volatility in the Bitcoin market.
Options Market Overview: Open Interest Positioning: Currently, the total value of open interest for call options is $12 billion, while put options amount to $7.8 billion, indicating a dominance of call options. Market Share by Trading Platform: Deribit leads the options market with a 72% share, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 12%, and Binance at 9%.
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Many people fail to notice the differences between a bull market and a bear market. In short:
In a bear market, prices often rise sharply before gradually declining; a bull market is different, where prices may suddenly drop but can quickly recover.
Before a bear market arrives, despite a flood of negative news globally, prices often rise against the trend; before a bull market begins, although there is also negative information, there may occasionally be positive news.
During a bear market, many cryptocurrencies experience significant price fluctuations, rising and falling; during a bull market, most cryptocurrencies tend to rise steadily.
The characteristic of a bear market is that within one to two years, the value of most altcoins may decrease by over 90%. Currently, many altcoins have already fallen by 90%, and there may still be further declines. Only a few potential cryptocurrencies can survive a bear market and emerge in a bull market. In a bear market, the K-line chart shows more bearish candles than bullish ones, indicating a downward price fluctuation, making it difficult for retail investors to profit and often leading to losses.
The characteristics of a bull market are that trading volume and market activity continue to rise, the K-line chart shows more bullish candles than bearish ones, prices rarely decline, and most retail investors can make a profit, with losses being quite rare.
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The market fluctuated between the range of 90,000 to 98,000 over the weekend. This morning, it suddenly broke down and is once again approaching the support level around 94,000.
Currently, despite a short-term rebound in the four-hour chart, the strength is lacking. Additionally, this week is Christmas week, and the US stock market will close early. Logically, it can be inferred that before this, funds are unlikely to make large-scale moves into bullish positions. The resistance levels for the day are at 96,300 and 97,000, while the support levels are at 94,000 and 93,200. Overall, the outlook still leans towards bearish.
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Market Situation of Altcoins and Future Predictions
The current market condition for altcoins is that, aside from those popular coins with strong backing, most altcoins have not yet entered a phase of alternating price increases. The core issue lies in insufficient liquidity, with a large amount of capital concentrated in a few leading mainstream coins, leaving only a small amount of funds flowing into the altcoin sector.
The several large-scale price corrections experienced previously have dampened market sentiment, as can be clearly seen from the fear and greed index, which currently stands at only 70, compared to a longer period where it was above 80, and at one point even exceeded 90. However, the market gradually becoming calm is actually a favorable development, indicating that it is unlikely to see another sharp correction like the previous drops of 15% for Ethereum and 10% for Bitcoin in the short term.
Looking ahead to the next few days, as long as Bitcoin and Ethereum can maintain their previous low points without breaking below them, each price correction can be seen as a good opportunity for investment. The subsequent main upward trend for altcoins is also highly anticipated and has a considerable chance of being realized.
In a bull market, price corrections are a relatively common phenomenon, and the duration of these corrections usually exceeds that of price increases. Investors who truly understand this pattern will not doubt whether we are currently in a bull market.
With the start of a new week, the final sprint week of this month has arrived. After the weekend market closure, market activity is gradually recovering. From the current price movement, it can be seen that Bitcoin continues to test the support area below. Although there is an overall downward trend, it has not shown a significant one-sided movement. Both bulls and bears are fiercely competing, with both sides evenly matched.
In light of this situation, investors can use a high short and low long strategy for short-term operations during the day. Look for appropriate buying and selling opportunities within the price fluctuations to gain profits. Of course, investors should also remain vigilant and closely monitor market conditions and risk factors to make timely adjustments.
Operational Proposals:
Bitcoin: Go long in the range of 93000 - 93600, expecting a rise to the area of 96900 - 97400.
Ethereum: Go long in the range of 3200 - 3260, with a target set in the range of 3350 - 3390.
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Currently in a complex structure adjustment, due to conflicts in trading cycles, the expectations for bulls and bears are different.
In the hourly timeframe, the main short position is in Area A: Selling in Area A, looking for buying points to the right. If the price breaks the recent high, it can be entered, but the risk-to-reward ratio is not favorable, so it is temporarily abandoned; if Area A breaks, then look for shorts at high levels; under normal conditions without a break, be cautious as the larger cycle of 10.8k has not been broken.
In Area B, there is a current buying signal; those with low risk tolerance can lightly enter on the left side, and exit if the price breaks the previous low, as the risk-to-reward ratio is favorable.
In Area C, if the previous low breaks, it triggers a buying signal, and there may be potential buying points afterward.
Note: 10.8k does not represent a reversal for the larger cycle; hourly shorts are difficult to gauge and can only be predicted. Once the hourly shorts conclude, the market may either test the previous high or continue bullish; currently, the larger cycle reversal is not a concern.
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At the end of the weekly line, the ASR weekly channel shows the second overbought line suppression of this year, due to the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern after a new high on this weekly line.
Although there is still a possibility of some rebound or volatility in the new weekly cycle, the situation looks grim from the weekly perspective.
If this bull market ends, the weekly line needs to fall back into the volatility channel, with the current estimated range around 68000 to 72000.
Before reaching this situation, the bull market process is still ongoing.
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In previous strategies, I mentioned that the peak season of altcoins has not yet arrived, but I did not expect the adjustment of altcoins to be so deep.
The prices of most altcoins have fallen back to the point where Bitcoin initially rose, among which Pnut and ACT are at the top of the decline list.
At first, I also estimated that there might be a certain degree of correction during the Christmas period, but since the bull market has already started, I decided to hold the position for a long time and did not make any operations.
Unexpectedly, the momentum of this correction was so fierce that it really caught me off guard.
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Don't let the ups and downs of the market interfere with your decision. You need to establish an exit plan at the beginning of your entry.
Even if you encounter a decline, you should not blindly stick to it, but should rationally set a stop loss point;
Similarly, when the market is rising, you should also set a stop profit point to stabilize your income. Don't lose your previous achievements due to greed.
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ADA Price Outlook: Looking for a Recovery Opportunity
Currently, the price of Cardano (ADA) is at $0.89, hovering above the key support level of $0.87 after a sharp drop of 7% in the past 24 hours. Whether it can hold above this price level is crucial to maintain the bullish trend in the short term.
If the market rebounds, ADA has the hope of conquering the previously lost $1.00 level again. Once this resistance level successfully turns into support, it will mean that Cardano has started the road to recovery, pushing the price towards $1.23 and may also attract more investors to enter the market.
On the other hand, if the price loses the $0.87 support level, it may trigger a further decline. If it falls below this level, ADA may drop to $0.77, which will make the bullish expectations vanish and the market may enter a bearish pattern.
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