每日消息面新号

No updates on holidays

2024-10-16, Wednesday, daily news (selected)
10/16
News Research
Daily Quotes/Market Policy Dynamics Analysis

Policy Information
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 91.1%, and the probability of not cutting interest rates is 8.9%. (Announcement time: November 8, 02:00 UTC+8)
2. The US SEC filed a lawsuit against UBI Blockchain, accusing it of violations
3. New York regulatory officials suggest that crypto companies actively respond to supervision
4. Canary submits Litecoin ETF application to the US SEC
Macro News
1. Wednesday: 20:30 US September import price index monthly rate. The next day at 02:40, European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech.
2. Fed Daly: 3% may be a good guess for the neutral interest rate, and interest rates will be cut one or two more times this year.
3. North Korea blew up part of the North Korea-South Korea passage, and the South Korean army subsequently responded by shooting south of the South Korean military demarcation line.
4. Middle East situation: Israel held a security consultation meeting and reached an agreement on how to respond to Iran; Lebanon received assurances from the United States that Israel would reduce attacks on Lebanon;

Coin circle news
1. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$372 million yesterday, and the US spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of US$12.7 million yesterday
2. The 178,631 SOLs redeemed by FTX/Alameda yesterday were distributed to 20 addresses 8 hours ago
3. BlackRock's asset management scale reached US$25 billion, with 375,169 bitcoins under custody.
4. "Network State" project Praxis raised US$525 million to build cryptocurrency-friendly cities
5. South Korean lawmakers intend to criticize AVAIL tokens in congressional audits, calling them "the second hamburger coin"
6. MARA uses BTC collateral to obtain a credit line of US$200 million
7. Musk donated US$75 million to support Trump, and Tesla transferred all its Bitcoin reserves to multiple new addresses
8. The Trump family crypto project WLFI currently has sales of $9.66 million. WLFI updates token terms: non-transferable within one year, and currently does not plan to create a secondary market.

Greed and Fear Index: 73 (fear)
Nine Gods Index (Ahr999): 0.79 (fixed investment range)

2024-09-26, Thursday, daily news (selected)
09/26
News Research
Daily Market Share/Market Policy Dynamic Analysis
On-chain Abnormal Monitoring
Policy Information
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in November is 100%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 44.6%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 55.4%. (Announcement time: November 08, 02:00 UTC+8)
2. South Korea has established a digital asset protection fund to assist in recovering funds from users of closed crypto exchanges
3. US lawmakers proposed the "Assessing DeFi Opportunities Act", saying that DeFi is "critical to the future of the capital market"
4. Harris said the United States should become a leader in the blockchain field and reiterated support for digital assets
Macro News
1. Thursday: 20:30 The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 21. The final value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States, the final value of the quarterly rate of personal consumption expenditures, and the final value of the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index.
2. The U.S. Congress passed a three-month short-term spending bill to avoid a government shutdown at the end of the month.
3. Middle East situation-Israeli military commanders informed troops that they were preparing for a possible ground offensive in Lebanon; Biden: A full-scale war may break out in the Middle East, but there is also an opportunity to reach a breakthrough solution; French Foreign Minister: Working with the United States to promote a 21-day temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah; Iranian Foreign Minister: If a full-scale war breaks out in Lebanon, Iran will not stay out of it.
4. Meta released a multimodal LLAMA3.2 artificial intelligence model that can understand images and text at the same time

Coin Circle News
1. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$106 million yesterday, and the spot Ethereum ETH had a net inflow of US$33.8 million.
2. BTC options with a nominal value of approximately $5.8 billion and ETH options with a nominal value of $1.896 billion will expire and be delivered on Friday
3. Fractal Bitcoin announced the open source of the Fractal-based brc-20 protocol
4. Bitcoin mining difficulty dropped 4.6% to 88.4T this morning
5. Telegram wallet temporarily blocked access to British users due to reorganization
6. Mentougou Mt.Gox address currently holds 44,899 bitcoins, worth approximately $2.85 billion
7. Paypal is allowing US merchants to purchase, hold and sell cryptocurrencies directly from Paypal business accounts
8. Judge supports SEC's charge that Green Boxes constitute securities

Greed and Fear Index: 50 (fear)
Nine Gods Index (Ahr999): 0.71 (fixed investment range)

2024-09-23, Monday, daily news (selected)
09/23
News Research
Daily Quotes Sharing/Market Policy Dynamics Analysis
On-chain Abnormal Monitoring

Policy Information
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in November is 100%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 54.3%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 45.7%. (Announcement time: November 08 02:00UTC+8)
2. The revenue of the South African cryptocurrency market is expected to reach US$246 million in 2024
3. IMF staff proposes REDI framework to promote the adoption of CBDC
4. Survey: One in seven American voters hold cryptocurrencies and tend to support Trump

Macro News
1. This week's data: Monday: US September S&P Global PMI preliminary value. Thursday: US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 21. Friday: US August core PCE price index annual rate, monthly rate and personal expenditure monthly rate.
2. The size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has dropped to around $7.1 trillion, and it has shrunk by a total of $1.39 trillion this year.
3. Middle East situation: Lebanese Hezbollah: The confrontation with Israel has entered a new stage of endless liquidation war; IDF: The attack on Hezbollah will continue and intensify; Israeli President said that the dangerous situation between Israel and Lebanon may escalate sharply.
4. OpenAl's first model with "reasoning" capabilities, o1, is now open to corporate/education users and can be used up to 50 times a week.

Coin circle news
1. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $158.2 million yesterday, and the spot Ethereum ETH had a net inflow of $5.25 million.
2. Bitcoin options with a nominal value of $5.726 billion will be delivered this Friday, with the biggest pain point of $58,000
3. Data: VENOM, YGG, AGIX, ENA and other tokens are scheduled to be unlocked next week, of which VENOM unlocks about $26.1 million
4. Hamster Kombat announced the airdrop distribution: players cannot receive all HMSTR token allocations on the first day
5. The number of active accounts on the Ethereum network has dropped to the lowest level since December 2023
6. Data: Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF purchased 6,573 BTC, while miners mined only 3,150
7. Binance founder Zhao Changpeng confirmed that he will be released from prison on September 29.
8. The exchange's BTC reserves have decreased by nearly 100,000 in the past two months

Greed and Fear Index: 50 (fear)
Nine Gods Index (Ahr999): 0.72 (fixed investment range)

2024-09-20, Friday, daily news (selected)
09/20
News Research
Daily Quotes/Market Policy Dynamics Analysis
Policy Information
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in November is 100%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 65.6%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 34.4%. (Announcement time: November 8, 02:00UTC+8)
2. The Louisiana State Government of the United States now accepts Bitcoin payments
3. German financial giant Boerse Stuttgart Digital cooperates with DZ Bank to expand encryption services to more than 700 German banks
4. The German government closed 47 cryptocurrency exchanges suspected of being involved in illegal activities

Macro News
1. Friday: 01:00 the next day, the total number of oil drilling rigs in the United States for the week ending September 20. 02:00 the next day, the Federal Reserve Harker delivered a speech.
2. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 14 was 219,000, the lowest since the week ending May 18, 2024. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones hit record highs, and the Chinese stock index rose by more than 4%.
3. Hezbollah: Israel has crossed all red lines, which is equivalent to declaring war, and necessary actions will be taken.
4. US media: The United States no longer expects Israel and Hamas to reach a ceasefire agreement before the end of Biden's term. The Israeli Chief of Staff approved plans to continue military operations in the northern border area.

Cryptocurrency news
1. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$158.2 million yesterday, and the spot Ethereum ETH had a net inflow of US$5.25 million.
2. The Ethereum Pectra upgrade was confirmed to be executed in two times. The real-time gas fee of the Ethereum network rose to more than 17gwei, rising for 4 consecutive days
3. Arkham: The US government's BTC holdings are worth $12.16 billion, and the German government's BTC holdings have returned to zero
4. Worldcoin is testing the facial recognition function of its World App
5. ZachXBT: Genesis creditors' crypto assets were stolen, worth $243 million
6. BingX: A hacker attack was detected at 4 a.m. and an emergency plan has been launched
7. IntoTheBlock: After Bitcoin broke through $63,000, more than 5.1 million addresses are still in a floating loss state
8. Sky (MakerDAO) has passed a proposal to divest $200 million of WBTC collateral asset exposure, which will be implemented from October 3

Greed and Fear Index: 52 (fear)
Nine Gods Index (Ahr999): 0.71 (fixed investment range)

2024-09-19, Thursday, daily news (selected)
09/19
News Research
Daily Market Sharing/Market Policy Dynamic Analysis
On-chain Abnormal Monitoring
Policy Information
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in November is 100%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 72.6%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 27.4%. (Announcement time: November 8, 02:00 UTC+8)
2. The Louisiana State Government of the United States now accepts Bitcoin payments
3. Chairman of the US SEC: "So-called" exchanges of cryptocurrencies must follow the rules. There was a heated debate at the hearing of the US Congress on cryptocurrency regulation.
4. Polymarket predicts that Trump's chance of winning the election has dropped to 47%, and Harris's chance of winning the election has risen to 52%
Macro News
1. Thursday: 20:30 Initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 14. US current account in the second quarter. US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in September.
2. The Fed's September interest rate meeting: The interest rate cut cycle will start with a 50 basis point range. The dot plot shows that the interest rate will be cut by another 50BP this year and another 100BP next year.
3. Fed Chairman Powell: The US economy is generally strong, and the labor market has cooled down from the previous overheated state. If appropriate, the Fed can speed up or slow down, or even suspend interest rate cuts
4. Putin approved the proposal to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with Iran. Following the pager explosion, the walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah in Lebanon exploded in many places. It has caused 20 deaths and more than 450 injuries.

Cryptocurrency news
1. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of US$5,270 yesterday, and the spot Ethereum ETH had a net outflow of US$14.7 million.
2. Bitcoin's market capitalization reached 58.47%, and its dominance reached a three-year high
3. MicroStrategy increased the issuance of convertible preferred notes to US$875 million
4. Borderless Capital launched a US$100 million DePIN fund
5. Programmable privacy network Aleo: main network is now online
6. JPMorgan Chase, UBS and others joined the Bank for International Settlements' blockchain-based cross-border payment reform plan
7. Mizuho Bank cooperated with Fujitsu to use blockchain to simplify carbon credit issuance
8. Trump used Bitcoin to pay for his meal for the first time in a bar in New York

Greed and Fear Index: 49 (fear)
Nine Gods Index (Ahr999): 0.68 (fixed investment range)

2024-09-13, Friday, Daily News (Selected) 09/13
Policy Information
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 100%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 58%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 42%. (Announcement time: September 19, 02:00 UTC+8)
2. US lawmakers initiated a new bill to establish a joint advisory committee on digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC
3. Eight US Democratic lawmakers held a private roundtable meeting with crypto industry executives to discuss Bitcoin-related issues
4. Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele promotes Bitcoin or more as a public relations strategy

Macro News
1. Thursday: 20:30 US August import price index monthly rate. 22:00 US September one-year inflation rate forecast preliminary value. 22:00 US September University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value.
2. The monthly rates of PPI and core PPI in the United States were 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, both higher than expected but the previous values ​​were revised down; the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose modestly to 230,000 last week.
3. Moscow has begun to launch a counterattack in the Kursk region.
4. OpenAl released the artificial intelligence model "Strawberry" with reasoning ability. SpaceX private astronauts successfully exited the cabin, and the billionaire "stepped into" space, creating a milestone in space walking.

Cryptocurrency news
1. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$39.03 million yesterday, and the spot Ethereum ETH had a net outflow of US$20.14 million.
2. BTC and ETH option contracts with a nominal value of $1.576 billion will expire and be delivered on Friday
3. Trump: The crypto project World Liberty Financial will be launched on September 16
4. US consumer protection organizations warn of Tether's reserve transparency issues
5. BlackRock: Bitcoin is an alternative currency to global legal currencies
6. LayerZero: Users can transfer assets from Bitcoin L1 to chains such as Solana, Base and Arbitrum through the OFT standard
7. Market news: Grayscale will launch the first US XRP Trust Fund
8. Eigenpie obtains strategic investment and completes seed round financing, with participation from the Arbitrum Foundation and others

Greed and Fear Index: 32 (Fear)
Nine Gods Index (Ahr999): 0.60 (fixed investment range)

2024-08-28, Wednesday, Daily News (Selected)
08/28
News Research
Daily Market Sharing/Market Policy Dynamics Analysis
On-chain Abnormal Monitoring
Policy Information
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 100%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 66%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 34%. (Announcement time: September 19, 02:00 UTC+8)
2. The UK Financial Conduct Authority has not approved the registration application of cryptocurrency companies for 6 consecutive months
3. Trump confirmed that he will participate in the debate with Harris on September 10.
4. Nasdaq and CF Benchmarks cooperated to submit an application to the SEC, planning to launch Nasdaq Bitcoin Index Options.
Macro News
1. Wednesday: 22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending August 23. EIA Cushing crude oil inventory for the week. EIA strategic oil reserve inventory for the week.
2. The Mexican president said he would "suspend" relations with the U.S. Embassy in Mexico. Libya's El-Feel oil field is reportedly to be closed. The eastern Libyan government said that oil and gas supplies will continue to be interrupted until the central bank governor resumes his legal duties.
3. Middle East situation-White House: Iran can launch an attack on Israel at any time, and if an attack occurs, the United States will defend Israel.
4. OpenAl plans to release a new reasoning AI model code-named "Strawberry" as early as this fall.

Cryptocurrency news
1. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of US$127 million yesterday, and the US spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of US$3.4 million.
2. BTC and ETH options with a nominal value of approximately US$4.816 billion will expire and be delivered on Friday
3. The TON network is paralyzed and no blocks have been generated for more than 3 hours. TON Status: If the validator index is less than 100, emergency action must be taken at 12 o'clock, and a restart will be carried out to restore consensus
4. So far this year, a total of US$26 billion in BTC and ETH have been outflowed on CEX
5. The UAE asked France to provide consular support to Pavel Durov immediately. On the day when Telegram founder Durov was arrested, he was originally scheduled to have dinner with French President Macron.
6. BIT and FTX swapped by ByBit and FTX in 2021 may be sold off in 2 months, with 100 million BIT worth 57.73 million US dollars
7. Head of Base Protocol: A certain country's stable currency has been introduced to the Base chain, and we look forward to establishing a local stable currency system with more countries
8. Guotai Junan: A structured note of an exchange-traded fund linked to a virtual asset spot has been launched in Hong Kong

Greed and Fear Index: 30 (Fear)
Nine Gods Index (Ahr999): 0.65 (Fixed Investment Range)

2024-08-26, Monday, Daily News (Selected)
08/26
News Research
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 100%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 74%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 26%. (Announcement time: September 19, 02:00 UTC+8)
2. The Governor of the Bank of Thailand announced that the list of approved virtual banks will be announced in 2025
3. French media: Pavel Durov decided to go to Paris despite knowing that he was wanted by France, and was subsequently arrested at the airport.
4. Thailand raided illegal mining sites near Bangkok
Macro News
1. Friday: 22:00 US July new home sales annualized. Fed Chairman Powell delivered a speech. The next day at 00:30 Fed Goolsby was interviewed.
2. The initial value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 48, an 8-month low. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 17 was 232,000, and the previous value was revised from 227,000 to 228,000.
3. Federal Reserve-Schmid: The revised non-agricultural data did not change my view on policy; Collins: It is expected that interest rate cuts will begin soon, and the pace will be gradual; Harker: The interest rate cut process needs to be started in September, neither in the 50BP nor 25BP range camp.
4. Middle East situation-Blinken proposed that Egypt join the peacekeeping force in the Philadelphia Corridor, and Netanyahu denied reports that he was considering deploying international forces there; it is reported that Hamas is considering targeting Israelis overseas.
Cryptocurrency news
1. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$252 million last Friday, and the US spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of US$5.7 million.
2. This week, tokens such as SUI (worth about $65 million), OP (worth about $50.5 million) and ZETA (worth about $33 million) will be unlocked in large amounts
3. Justin Sun: Proposal No. 92 of the TRON network is now in effect, raising the energy limit to 120 billion
4. The suspected Justin Sun team address has cumulatively exchanged $188 million worth of BTC for WBTC
5. Polymarket predicts that Harris's chances of being elected have risen to 50%, once again on par with Trump
6. FTX's restructuring plan is opposed by the US trustee and some creditors
7. The founder of Telegram may face multiple charges of fraud, money laundering, terrorism, etc. in France
8. The founder of Telegram has citizenship of Russia, France, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and the United Arab Emirates. The deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma called on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to try to rescue Durov.
Greed and Fear Index: 55 (Neutral)
Nine Gods Index (Ahr999): 0.76 (Fixed Investment Range)

2024-08-23, Friday, daily news (selected)
08/23
News Research
Daily Quotes/Market Policy Dynamics Analysis
On-chain Abnormal Monitoring
Policy Information 1
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 100%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 74%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 26%. (Announcement time: September 19, 02:00 UTC+8)
2. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank issued $300 million in digital bonds for the first time
3. The US SEC rejected the lawsuit dismissal request of Hex founder Richard Heart, and the case will continue
4. Colombian regulators accused Worldcoin of violating data protection laws
Macro News
1. Friday: 22:00 The total number of new home sales in the United States in July was annualized. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech. The next day at 00:30, Fed Goolsby was interviewed.
2. The initial value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 48, an 8-month low. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 17 was 232,000, and the previous value was revised from 227,000 to 228,000.
3. Federal Reserve-Schmid: The revised non-agricultural data did not change my view on policy; Collins: It is expected that interest rate cuts will begin soon, and the pace will be gradual; Harker: The interest rate cut process needs to be started in September, neither in the 50BP nor 25BP range camp.
4. Middle East situation-Blinken proposed that Egypt join the peacekeeping force in the Philadelphia Corridor, and Netanyahu denied reports that he was considering deploying international forces there; it is reported that Hamas is considering targeting Israelis overseas.
Cryptocurrency news
1. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$64.8 million last Friday, and the US spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of US$800,000.
2. Skybridge Capital founder: Bitcoin is still in its early stages and is not yet a "value storage" asset
3. Magic Eden Foundation launches ME tokens for cross-chain transactions
4. PayPal announces partnership with crypto bank Anchorage Digital to provide stablecoin rewards
5. CZ may have left prison but is still in custody
6. Grayscale launches AVAX investment trust Grayscale Avalanche Trust. Franklin Templeton expands on-chain money market funds to the Avalanche network.
7. FTX says creditors support restructuring plan with 95% voting rate
8. Trump promotes his family's new crypto project Telegram channel "The DeFiant Ones" on social platforms
Greed and Fear Index: 34 (panic)
Nine Gods Index (Ahr999): 0.68 (fixed investment interval)

2824-08-20, Tuesday, Daily News (Selected)
08/20
News Research
Daily Market Sharing/Market Policy Dynamic Analysis
On-chain Abnormal Monitoring
Policy Information
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 100%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 76%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 24%. (Announcement time: September 19, 02:00 UTC+8)
2. China's "two highs" issued the latest judicial interpretation: "virtual asset" transactions will be listed as one of the ways of money laundering
3. Fox reporter: The Republican Party's platform includes content dedicated to "supporting innovation" such as encryption and AI. The Democratic Party of the United States did not mention anything related to encryption in its latest party platform.
4. Trump: If elected, Musk will be considered for a cabinet or advisory role. Source: If elected, Harris will consider appointing Gary Gensler as Secretary of the Treasury.
Macro News
1. Tuesday: 20:30 Canada's July CPI monthly rate. The next day at 01:35, Fed Bostic delivered a speech.
2. New York Fed survey: The proportion of American respondents who expect to be unemployed in the next four months is the highest on record
3. The price of gold bars hit a milestone of over $1 million for the first time in history
4. Middle East situation-Blinken said that Netanyahu has accepted the latest ceasefire agreement, and Hamas responded: "No agreement will be reached unless Hamas' conditions are met and the content of the previous UN resolution is complied with"; foreign media reported that Netanyahu appeased the United States to agree to a ceasefire agreement.

Cryptocurrency news
1. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $70.6 million last Friday, and the US spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of $13.5 million.
2. Data: Bitcoin's price fell 8.2% after halving, the worst halving performance in history
3. Musk posted a picture containing "D.O.G.E." on the X platform, and jokingly called it the abbreviation of "Government Efficiency Department"
4. The front end of Parcl's official website is suspected to have been attacked, and Catizen: A mini game center will be launched on August 22.
5. Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, once again spent 500 million yen to increase its holdings by about 57.273 BTC
6. The US SEC has discussed the securities attributes of SOL with ETF issuers
7. Ethereum DApp transaction volume has dropped 33% in the past week
8. Fabric, a crypto "VPU" chip development company, has completed a $33 million financing, led by Blockchain Capital and 1kx

Greed and Fear Index: 30 (panic)
Nine Gods Index (Ahr999): 0.66 (fixed investment range)

2024-08-13, Tuesday, Daily News (Selected)
08/13
News Research
Daily Market Sharing/Market Policy Dynamic Analysis
On-chain Abnormal Monitoring
Policy Information
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 100%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 50%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 50%. (Announcement time: September 19, 02:00 UTC+8)
2. German state-owned bank KfW will launch blockchain-based digital bonds
3. Brazilian Deputy Minister of Finance: There is no clear understanding of the motivation for the demand for crypto assets
4. Nigerian SEC: Cautiously open to Bitcoin regulation, willing to actively explore relevant frameworks
Macro News
1. Tuesday: 20:30 US July PPI annual rate. 20:30 US July PPI monthly rate. The next day at 01:15, Federal Reserve Bostic delivered a speech on the economy.
2. Fitch: Downgraded Israel's rating from "A+" to "A", with a negative outlook. The conflict between Israel and Hamas may continue until 2025, and there is a risk of expansion to other fronts.
3. The U.S. Department of Energy plans to purchase 6 million barrels of oil to replenish war reserves. OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next, and its average crude oil production in July increased from the previous month.
4. Middle East situation-many parties believe that Iran's attack on Israel is imminent, but it will not be tonight local time; foreign media quoted U.S. and Israeli officials as saying that Iran has deployed measures similar to the attack on Israel in April, but the specific time of the attack is unknown;
Coin circle news
1. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$27.8 million yesterday, and the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of US$5 million.
2. Bitcoin miners' income hit a new low of the year yesterday, falling to US$2.54 million
3. Trump returned to Twitter, and the Trump XSpaces interview ended without mentioning cryptocurrency.
4. The US SEC accused NovaTech and its head of $650 million in cryptocurrency fraud
5. BlackRock and Fidelity's ETFs currently hold a total of 524,390 BTC
6. The US SEC sent letters to venture capital funds such as a16z and USV regarding Uniswap issues
7. The supply of stablecoins has reached a high since January 2022, and the market value of DeFi has dropped to the lowest level in three years.
8. Marathon Digital plans to issue $250 million in convertible senior notes in a private placement
Greed and Fear Index: 31 (panic)
Nine Gods Index (Ahr999): 0.68 (fixed investment range)

2024-08-09, Friday, Daily News (Selected) 08/09
News Research
Daily Market Sharing/Market Policy Dynamic Analysis On-chain Abnormal Monitoring
Policy Information
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 100%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 43%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is
57%. (Announcement time: September 19, 02:00 UTC+8)
2. The White House and Harris advisers listened to the opinions of cryptocurrency industry executives but did not make any promises
3. Putin signed a law to legalize cryptocurrency mining in Russia
The United States will establish a Bitcoin tax-free zone to promote the development of the digital economy 4.
Macro News
1. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week fell by the largest amount in nearly a year, easing recession concerns, and traders cut expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
2. Fed Schmid: If inflation remains low, a rate cut is appropriate
3. Trump: The US economy is close to recession. Trump and Harris agreed to debate on September 10
4. Middle East situation-US officials said Iran may reassess whether to launch a military attack on Israel; sources said that Hezbollah armed forces in Lebanon may launch a strike against Israel alone; Israeli Defense Minister said that Hezbollah's military actions in Lebanon will be responded to with "fierce war";
Market News
1. US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$195 million yesterday, and US spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of US$2.9 million yesterday. 2. Friday: 32,000 BTC options and 206,000 ETH options are about to expire, with a total nominal value of US$2.46 billion
3. The number of first-time unemployment claims in the United States last week was 233,000, a new low since the week of July 6
4. The Federal Reserve accused Customers Bancorp, which provides services to digital asset customers, of having deficiencies in risk management and anti-money laundering
5. Donald Trump Jr.: I like Meme culture but the new project is "bigger"
6. Alameda Research transferred the first 200,000 WLD to Binance 9 hours ago and still holds 24.8 million.
7. The US MIAX Stock Exchange has withdrawn its proposal to list and trade spot Bitcoin ETF options
8. Trump's second son: Beware of fake tokens, the official Trump project has not yet been announced
Greed and Fear Index: 48 (neutral)
Nine Gods Index (Ahr999): 0.61 (fixed investment range)

2024-08-02, Friday, daily news (selected)
08/02
News Research
Daily Market Share/Market Policy Dynamic Analysis
On-chain Abnormal Monitoring

Policy Information
1. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 100%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 70%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 30%. (Announcement time: September 19, 02:00 UTC+8)
2. BIS and the Bank of England plan to regulate stablecoin balance sheets
3. US Senator Cynthia Lummis formally proposed the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act
4. Dubai Commercial Bank in the United Arab Emirates launched a special account for virtual asset service providers

Macro News
1. Friday: 20:30 US unemployment rate in July, US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in July.
2. The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted by the largest amount in eight months, triggering market speculation about economic contraction. The yields of US 3-year, 5-year and 7-year Treasury bonds fell below 4%.
3. Overnight market - US Treasury 10y fell below 4%, 2y fell about 10BP; Nasdaq fell 2.3%, semiconductor index fell 7%, Nvidia fell more than 6%; Intel's performance exploded, fell 20% after the market, Amazon's performance guidance was lower than expected, fell 5% after the market; international crude oil fell 2%.
4. Middle East situation - ① Israel announced the elimination of three senior enemy generals within 48 hours; ② Dozens of rockets attacked northern Israel; ③ The United States updated its defensive military deployment to help defend Israel;
Coin circle news -
1. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$50.4 million yesterday. US spot Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $26.2 million yesterday
2. US spot Bitcoin ETF purchased more than 50,000 BTC in July
3. 37,000 BTC options and 180,000 ETH options will expire today, with a total notional value of $3 billion
4. The supply of stablecoins issued in July rose to $144.3 billion, and USDT's market share reached 78.9%
5. Fantom has been renamed Sonic Labs, and will launch EVM chain Sonic in Q4
6. US mining company CleanSpark builds new mining facilities in Wyoming
7. MicroStrategy will raise $2 billion to buy more Bitcoin. MicroStrategy's net loss in the second quarter was $102.6 million, and its Bitcoin holdings rose to 226,500
8. Galaxy Digital's net loss in the second quarter was $177 million, almost four times that of the same period last year

Greed and Fear Index: 57 (neutral)
Nine Gods Index (Ahr999): 0.85 (fixed investment range)